Search arXiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Fan Li

Publications and source records attributed to Fan Li.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Breaking Weather-Content Coupling: Type-Severity Guided Progressive Disentanglement for All-in-One Infrared Restoration

Infrared (IR) imaging is crucial for autonomous driving, remote sensing, and other perception tasks. However, adverse weather may introduce fake structural responses that are entangled with real thermal structures. Existing IR restoration methods are typically designed for a single degradation type or directly reconstruct from degradation-entangled representations. Consequently, they struggle to distinguish intrinsic thermal structures from weather-induced fake responses and to accommodate spatially varying degradation severity, leading to artifacts or the over-suppression of weak but meaningful thermal responses. To address these issues, we propose TSGPD-IR, a type-severity guided progressive disentanglement network for all-in-one infrared restoration that factorizes restoration guidance into task-level weather semantics and region-level degradation severity. Specifically, a Weather and Semantic Co-Guided Multi-Level Prompt Generation Module combines global weather semantics with stage-wise local features to generate adaptive prompts that progressively suppress degradation-induced responses while preserving intrinsic thermal structures. To complement global weather semantics with spatial restoration control, a Proxy-Supervised Regional Degradation Estimator derives severity supervision without manual annotations and predicts spatially varying degradation priors. Guided by these cues, a Multi-Source Collaborative Expert Selection Strategy uses a shared branch to preserve weather-invariant thermal structures and hierarchical routing to select weather-specific expert pools and severity-compatible regional experts. This design progressively separates degradation interference from genuine thermal content and enables region-adaptive restoration, reducing both residual artifacts and over-suppression.

cs.CV↗

Heterogeneous survivor average causal effects beyond monotonicity: Applications to a clinical trial evaluating mechanical ventilation strategies

Clinical trials in critical care often evaluate outcomes that are truncated by death, such as time to discharge alive, for which treatment effects are not well defined among patients who would not survive under one or both treatment strategies. Principal stratification provides a natural framework for defining survivor causal effects, but existing approaches often rely on monotonicity assumptions that may be implausible in settings where treatment can affect survival in competing directions. This concern is illustrated by the ARDS Network trial of lower versus higher positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP), in which higher PEEP may benefit some patients by improving alveolar recruitment while harming others through over-distention or hemodynamic compromise. Moreover, the largely null average findings of the original trial do not rule out the possibility of clinically meaningful subgroups that may benefit from or be harmed by higher PEEP. We propose a monotonicity-free framework for identifying conditional survivor average causal effects (CSACE) using an interpretable sensitivity parameter that characterizes latent principal-stratum membership. We then develop a flexible Bayesian estimation strategy based on BART, a posterior-mean-based variable importance measure, and a distribution-aware conditional inference tree that uses the full posterior draws of individualized CSACEs. In simulation studies, the proposed BART-based approach improves individualized CSACE estimation and variable-importance recovery compared with linear modeling, especially under nonlinear treatment-effect heterogeneity. Applied to the ARDS PEEP trial, our method reveals clinically interpretable heterogeneity among estimated always-survivors, identifying subgroups with posterior evidence of benefit or harm that are obscured by the overall null trial results.

stat.ME↗

MTMed3D: A Multi-Task Transformer-Based Model for 3D Medical Imaging

In the field of medical imaging, AI-assisted techniques such as object detection, segmentation, and classification are widely employed to alleviate the workload of physicians and doctors. However, single-task models are predominantly used, overlooking the shared information across tasks. This oversight leads to inefficiencies in real-life applications. In this work, we propose MTMed3D, a novel end-to-end Multi-task Transformer-based model to address the limitations of single-task models by jointly performing 3D detection, segmentation, and classification in medical imaging. Our model uses a Transformer as the shared encoder to generate multi-scale features, followed by CNN-based task-specific decoders. The proposed framework was evaluated on the BraTS 2018 and 2019 datasets, achieving promising results across all three tasks, especially in detection, where our method achieves better results than prior works. Additionally, we compare our multi-task model with equivalent single-task variants trained separately. Our multi-task model significantly reduces computational costs and achieves faster inference speed while maintaining comparable performance to the single-task models, highlighting its efficiency advantage. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to leverage Transformers for multi-task learning that simultaneously covers detection, segmentation, and classification tasks in 3D medical imaging, presenting its potential to enhance diagnostic processes. The code is available at https://github.com/fanlimua/MTMed3D.git.

eess.IV↗

GameASG-Bench: Benchmarking Autonomous Software Generation for Game Development

Autonomous software generation (ASG) aims to turn human requirements into executable applications, but delivering these applications does not necessarily establish that their interacting components satisfy the specified behavioral requirements. We introduce GameASG-Bench, a benchmark that makes behavioral testability part of the generation task for game development. Our design declares an evaluation interface specification before generation, fixing legal starting scenarios, player-level actions, stable snapshots, rejection behavior, and invariants while leaving private implementations open. Concretely, we include: (i) static L1 checks that assess source-level compliance; and (ii) browser-executed L2 checks that combine semantic observations with real input and runtime evidence. We implement this protocol as 47 browser-native game-generation tasks spanning 12 primary genres and both 2D and 3D interaction, each with executable checks and an independently verified reference implementation. Our experiments answer four key questions about end-to-end agent performance, tool access and nominal turn budget, reasoning effort, and harness choice. Across nine agent stacks, the highest observed mean L2 check pass rate is 93.2%, yet the highest observed strict task success rate, requiring all L1 and applicable L2 prerequisite and core requirement checks, is only 55.3% (26/47 tasks). For DeepSeek-V4-Flash, full tool access and larger nominal turn budgets yield more strict task successes, while the strict task success rate is not monotonic in reasoning effort. Both tested harnesses achieve 18 strict task successes, but only ten tasks succeed under both. These results expose task-level compliance gaps that high average check pass rates actually obscure.

cs.AI↗

Statistical inference with win statistics in cluster-randomized trials with hierarchical composite outcomes

Win statistics have become increasingly popular for analyzing hierarchical composite endpoints in clinical trials. The win ratio, win odds, net benefit, and desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) share a pairwise-comparison framework and provide complementary summaries of treatment benefit. Despite recent progress in individually randomized trials, statistical inference for these measures in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) remains underdeveloped. We provide a unified development and comparison of six testing procedures for all four win measures in parallel-arm CRTs: three Wald tests, two randomization-based tests, and a jackknife empirical likelihood ratio test. Through simulations with hierarchical semi-competing risks outcomes, we evaluate type I error rate and power across varying design parameters. With 20 clusters, the randomization-based procedures provided the most stable type I error rate control, while the clustered rank-sum Wald test with a t-distribution was the most reliable among the Wald tests, occasionally carrying a conservative test size. For the win ratio and win odds, the permutation test also yielded higher power than the clustered rank-sum Wald test. With 100 clusters, differences in type I error rate and power were small. These findings favor permutation inference in small CRTs, with the clustered rank-sum Wald test providing an analytic alternative, particularly for net benefit and DOOR. On the other hand, the analytic Wald procedures offer a computationally convenient choice for CRTs with a large number of clusters. We illustrate the methods by reanalyzing the STRIDE trial and implement all procedures in the WinsCRT R package.

stat.ME↗

Estimating the average treatment effect under limited overlap via Polynomial Approximation and Extrapolation

Estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) remains a fundamental challenge in observational studies in the presence of poor or limited covariate overlap. Although the inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimator is a widely used approach for estimating the ATE, its performance can deteriorate substantially when overlap is limited, often resulting in increased finite sample bias and unreliable confidence intervals. One common strategy is to shift attention from the original target estimand, the ATE, to alternative estimands such as a class of weighted ATEs that are less sensitive to extreme propensity scores; however, doing so changes the scientific question of interest. In this manuscript, we propose a novel ATE estimator that preserves the original target estimand, the ATE, while improving robustness to limited overlap. A key idea is that this class of estimands can be represented by a polynomial function of a hyperparameter characterizing the estimands. Exploiting this structure, the proposed method computes IPW estimators for a sequence of such estimands, models these estimates using a polynomial regression, and extrapolates to recover the ATE. We show that the estimator has consistency and asymptotic normality under weaker overlap conditions than required for the standard IPW estimator. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method improves estimation accuracy and interval performance in settings with limited overlap. In addition to its theoretical and empirical advantages, the proposed approach has a clear interpretation and is easy to implement using standard statistical software.

stat.ME↗

Nonparametric heterogeneous causal mediation with orthogonal machine learning

Causal mediation analysis decomposes the total effect of an intervention on an outcome into a direct pathway and an indirect pathway transmitted through a mediator, but standard methods typically summarize these pathways using population average effects. In many applications, however, the indirect effect may vary substantially across individual profiles. We propose an orthogonal statistical learning framework for estimating heterogeneous causal mediation effects conditional on individual characteristics. The method constructs a class of weighted Neyman orthogonal losses motivated by influence function representations of weighted population average effects. These losses directly target conditional mediation estimands whose minimizers are locally insensitive to nuisance estimation errors. We implement the resulting learners under a two-stage meta-learning framework with regularized linear sieves as second-stage smoothers, and introduce a combination of targeted learning and orthogonal learning designed to improve stability when mediator density ratios are unstable. We establish $L^2$ and uniform limit theory and develop pointwise and uniform confidence bands. Simulation studies show that the proposed orthogonal learners reduce the mean integrated squared error by more than $50\%$ compared with existing model-based methods and provide computationally efficient inference in nonlinear settings. The CARDIA, PSACR, and STAR analyses reveal heterogeneous mediated effects across cardiometabolic, psychological, and educational settings.

stat.ME↗

Cluster randomized crossover trials with very few clusters but multiple periods: which analyses for continuous outcomes should be used?

Cluster randomized crossover (CRXO) trials are often used when individual randomization is impractical and the number of available clusters is limited. However, statistical analysis of CRXO trials is complex because of the need to account for complex correlation structures over time. It becomes especially challenging when very few clusters are used because standard modeling assumptions may lead to unstable variance estimates, poor confidence interval coverage, and inflated type I error. This study evaluates individual-level mixed-effects and fixed-effects models with and without a cluster-period random effect, cluster-period summary analysis using normal- or \(t\)-based inference, and two-period crossover-difference estimators. Using extensive simulation studies under both nested exchangeable and discrete time decay correlation structures, we compare model performance in terms of bias, root mean squared error, coverage probability, type I error, and convergence. Across scenarios, all models produced approximately unbiased treatment effect estimates, but their inferential performance differed substantially. Models that explicitly accounted for cluster-period heterogeneity generally provided the most reliable control of coverage and type I error, whereas simpler exchangeable models performed adequately only when the true correlation structure closely matched their assumptions. Cluster-period level analysis performance improved with increasing numbers of periods but was unreliable in the sparsest designs. Overall, the findings suggest that in CRXO trials with very few clusters, accurate modeling of cluster-period correlation is more important than the choice between fixed and random cluster intercepts, and that results from extremely sparse designs should be interpreted with caution.

stat.ME↗

Deeply Interleaved Text-Image Contexts for Multimodal LLMs Assessment

Current evaluations and training of multimodal models predominantly focus on multi-image tasks, largely overlooking interleaved text-image scenarios. In such multi-image tasks, text typically serves merely as task instructions, lacking deep semantic interaction with the visual content. In contrast, realworld applications like text-image co-creation, character tracking, and spatial reconstruction require constant interaction between text and images. Consequently, models must possess a deep understanding of these interleaved contexts. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark, TIC-Bench (deeply interleaved Text-Image Contexts), designed to evaluate the capability of models to integrate text-image clues and recover the ground truth facts within deeply interleaved contexts. This benchmark encompasses three core domains: Logical, Temporal, and Spatial Association, which are further categorized into eight specific types, comprising a total of 2,280 questions. We evaluated 10 state-of-the-art MLLMs and observed a substantial performance gap compared to human experts, together with persistent difficulties in integrating evidence distributed across interleaved visual and textual inputs. Ultimately, this benchmark provides a valuable analytical tool for assessing and advancing the ability of multimodal models to effectively integrate text and image information in deeply interleaved contexts. TIC-Bench is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/pino10010/TIC-Bench

cs.CV↗

Causal sensitivity analyses for indirect and spillover mediation effects in cluster-randomized trials: Application to a pragmatic trial on chronic pain management

Causal mediation in cluster-randomized trials can clarify whether a cluster-level intervention changes patient outcomes through patient- and peer-level processes, but identification relies on untestable cross-world assumptions. We develop a two-part sensitivity analysis for violations of two distinct cross-world independence assumptions. The first component adapts bridge score sensitivity analysis to assess residual mediator-outcome confounding with clustered mediator exposures; the second uses a Gaussian copula to assess cross-world dependence between an individual's treated mediator and summaries of control-arm peer mediators. The resulting framework parameterizes unidentifiable dependence structures using interpretable correlation parameters and combines them with a flexible Bayesian nonparametric model to characterize the plausible range of the target estimands. A nested common-atoms enriched Dirichlet process models the observed data and supports posterior-predictive standardization. We apply the framework to the Pain Program for Active Coping and Training trial, a primary care-embedded cognitive behavioral therapy intervention for adults with chronic pain receiving long-term opioid therapy. The intervention had a negative total effect on twelve-month pain-related disability. The natural indirect and direct effect decomposition was sensitive to plausible directional residual confounding, whereas the spillover and individual mediation effect decomposition changed little across the copula sensitivity analyses and attributed most of the negative indirect signal to the individual's mediator. Jointly relaxing both assumptions substantially increased uncertainty about the pathways. The analysis supports an overall improvement in disability and a plausible individual pain-impact pathway, while showing that detailed mechanistic claims remain assumption-dependent.

stat.AP↗

Saturation in G: simple & robust causal inference in cluster randomized trials with informative cluster sizes

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) can exhibit informative cluster sizes (ICS) where cluster size is associated with outcomes and/or treatment effects. Under ICS, the individual and cluster-average treatment effects (iATE, cATE) can diverge, and the conventional linear mixed-effects model (LMM) and generalized estimating equation (GEE) with an exchangeable working correlation can produce data-dependent weighted contrasts that are not consistent for either estimand. In these settings with ICS, we propose easy to implement "cluster-size saturated models with g-computation" (CS-g), which employ a simple two-step adjustment to standard practice: (1.) augment the appropriately weighted working LMM or GEE with a saturated continuous cluster-size main effect and treatment x cluster-size interaction, and (2.) apply g-computation to target an interpretable marginal estimand. We prove that the appropriately weighted cluster-size saturated LMM with g-computation and more general cluster-size saturated GEE with g-computation can consistently target the iATE and cATE, among a broad class of interpretable estimands, while allowing for ICS. Crucially, this consistency holds under arbitrary misspecification of other model components, including the functional form of the saturated cluster-size terms. Furthermore, we demonstrate exact finite-sample equivalence between these consistent CS-g estimators and their model-robust standardization counterparts. Across simulations with continuous and binary outcomes, the proposed CS-g estimators were unbiased, more efficient than other consistent estimators, and returned greater power to detect ICS. A re-analysis of the PPACT P-CRT further illustrates the approach. Altogether, CS-g offers a simple, robust, and efficient route to target interpretable marginal effects in P-CRTs with ICS.

stat.ME↗

Orthogonal double residual learning for optimal individualized treatment rules

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) map baseline characteristics to treatment recommendations, with the optimal ITR maximizing expected reward or policy welfare. Indirect methods may require restrictive modeling assumptions, whereas direct methods can be sensitive to nuisance estimation error and limited overlap. We propose orthogonal double residual learning (ODRL), a two-stage, cross-fitted framework that directly targets the optimal ITR through cost-sensitive classification using the product of treatment and outcome residuals. To our knowledge, ODRL is the first direct method with a universally Neyman orthogonal objective requiring neither restrictive modeling assumptions nor inverse propensity score weighting. Thus, nuisance estimation errors affect regret through a second-order product, and ODRL remains robust under limited overlap. The Fisher consistent objective accommodates general decision rule sieves. We establish nonasymptotic high probability value function regret bounds relative to the Bayes classifier for VC classes, including linear rules and decision trees, and calibrated regret bounds for surrogate relaxations using support vector machines and deep ReLU neural networks. We further show that generic surrogate relaxations need not preserve orthogonality, whereas bounded score hinge learning does. Simulations demonstrate strong performance across complex and linear decision boundaries, limited overlap, and working model misspecification. Applications to the Right Heart Catheterization study and the Oxford Net Zero experiment illustrate interpretable treatment or policy recommendations. The \texttt{odrlITR} R package implements ODRL.

stat.ME↗

Calibrated Bayes analysis of cluster-randomized trials

In cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), entire clusters of individuals are randomized to treatment, and outcomes within a cluster are typically correlated. While frequentist approaches are standard practice for CRT analysis, Bayesian methods have emerged as a strong alternative. Previous work has investigated the use of Bayesian hierarchical models for continuous, binary, and count outcomes in CRTs, but these approaches focus on model-based treatment effect coefficients as the target estimands, which may have ambiguous interpretation under model misspecification and informative cluster size. In this article, we introduce a calibrated Bayesian procedure for estimand-aligned analysis of CRTs even in the presence of potentially misspecified models. We propose estimators targeting both the cluster-average treatment effect (cluster-ATE) and individual-average treatment effect (individual-ATE), particularly in scenarios with informative cluster sizes. We additionally explore strategies for summarizing the posterior samples that can achieve the frequentist coverage even under working model misspecification. We provide simulation evidence to demonstrate the model-robustness property of the proposed estimators in CRTs, and further investigate the impact of covariate adjustment as well as the use of more flexible Bayesian nonparametric working models in the CRT context.

stat.ME↗

Can Large Language Models Explain Flight Safety Events? A Prior-Guided Semantic LLM-based Approach

Improving flight safety with flight data requires not only accurate detection of risk events, but more importantly, clear interpretation of their underlying causes at the level of pilot control behavior. Existing explainable AI techniques, such as feature importance maps, often require considerable domain knowledge to translate them into operationally meaningful explanations. Large Language Models (LLMs), which excel at language reasoning, bring a promising solution to this issue. However, applying LLMs in this domain presents key challenges such as modal inconsistency, limited classification ability, scarcity of task-specific data for fine-tuning, and lack of domain knowledge. To overcome these challenges, we propose FlightLLM, a prior-guided semantic LLM-based approach for interpretable flight safety analysis. Specifically, we first perform feature engineering to address modal inconsistency, combining statistical descriptors with physically meaningful flight indicators. This representation is further processed by a Semantic Discretization module, which converts abstract numerical patterns into qualitative descriptions that are more compatible with language reasoning. In addition, since LLMs are not inherently strong classifiers, CatBoost is incorporated as a statistical expert, and its prediction results are injected into the prompt as prior guidance. A contrastive few-shot learning strategy is further adopted to compensate for limited data. Finally, we design structured prompts to embed aviation-specific knowledge into the inference process. Using hard landing, a representative risk event with complex causal mechanisms, as an anchor point, we evaluate FlightLLM on a dataset of 704 real-world A320 flight samples. Experimental results show that the proposed approach achieves competitive classification performance while generating direct and reasonable explanations for event causes.

cs.AI↗

Doubly robust estimation of while-alive estimands in individually-randomized and cluster-randomized trials

Randomized trials in chronic disease settings often measure treatment benefit through recurrent non-fatal events that are truncated by death, where conventional summaries either discard recurrences, conflate the treatment effect with survival, or treat death as censoring and forfeit a causal interpretation. While-alive estimands measure event burden per unit time alive, but doubly robust estimation for the exposure-weighted while-alive rate remains undeveloped, particularly in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs). We develop a doubly robust estimator based on a local Nelson-Aalen representation, with augmented estimating equations targeting the marginal hazard of the terminal event and the weighted recurrent event rate among those alive; the estimator accommodates multiple event types through prespecified clinical weights and remains consistent if either the censoring model or the outcome working models are correctly specified. For CRTs, we define a new pair of individual-average and cluster-average estimands under informative cluster size, with inference based on cluster-level influence functions. We establish component-wise double robustness and asymptotic normality, corroborate the theory in simulations, and illustrate the methods with reanalyses of data from two completed randomized trials.

stat.ME↗

DualMiT-Net: Local-Global Transformer-Convolutional Fusion for Breast Mass Segmentation in Mammographic Regions of Interest

Breast mass segmentation is an important step in computer-aided mammography, but it remains difficult because masses can have low contrast, irregular shapes, and boundaries that blend with surrounding breast tissue. To address this problem, we present DualMiT-Net, a dual-branch network that uses both a focused view of the mass and a wider view of the surrounding tissue. The local branch uses a Mix Transformer (MiT-B5) encoder to learn mass shape, texture, and boundary information, while the global branch uses an EfficientNet-B5 encoder to learn surrounding breast context. Features from the two branches are shared at the deeper encoder levels and are then progressively fused in a single decoder. A spatial gate controls how much global information is added during decoding. We also evaluated four input representations and selected a percentile-windowed mammogram combined with a Gabor texture response. The model was trained and evaluated on the mass subset of the Curated Breast Imaging Subset of the Digital Database for Screening Mammography (CBIS-DDSM) using a patient-level split. Across three training runs, DualMiT-Net with exponential moving average weights achieved a mean Dice coefficient of 0.9375 and a mean Intersection over Union of 0.8834. It also achieved better Dice and IoU scores than six standard encoder-decoder baselines trained using the same data and training settings. These results show that combining local mass information with wider breast context can provide accurate and consistent breast mass segmentation.

cs.CV↗

Sample size determination for win statistics in cluster-randomized trials

Composite endpoints are increasingly used in clinical trials to capture treatment effects across multiple or hierarchically ordered outcomes. Although inference procedures based on win statistics, such as the win ratio, win odds, and win difference (net benefit) have gained traction in individually randomized trials, their methodological development for cluster-randomized trials remains limited. In particular, there is no formal framework for power and sample size determination when using win statistics with composite time-to-event outcomes. We develop a unified framework for power and sample size calculation for win statistics under cluster randomization. Analytical variance expressions are derived for a class of win statistics, yielding closed-form variance expressions and power procedures that avoid computationally intensive simulations. The variance expressions explicitly characterize the roles of the rank intracluster correlation coefficient, cluster size, tie probability, and outcome prioritization for study planning purposes. Importantly, our variances nest existing formulas for univariate outcomes as special cases while extending them to complex, hierarchically ordered composite endpoints. Simulation studies confirm accurate finite-sample performance, and we supply a case study to illustrate the use of our proposed method.

stat.ME↗

Spin nematic liquid crystal and scalar spin chirality in tetragonal lattice YbMnBi$_2$

A spin nematic order, analogous to the nematic liquid crystal, characterizes the spontaneous breaking of spin-space rotational symmetry while preserving time-reversal ($T$) symmetry. In contrast, scalar spin chirality (SSC), a composite three-spin order, breaks $T$ symmetry and is known to induce an anomalous Hall effect (AHE). Although a spin nematic phase has been suggested in frustrated magnets and the square-lattice iridate, how it might affect magnetotransport properties is unknown. Here we use polarized neutron scattering to show that tetragonal $A$MnBi$_2$ ($A$ = Ca, Yb) is a strictly $c$-axis-aligned collinear antiferromagnet (C-type), with $T_N \approx 270$ K and 290 K, respectively. On cooling from 450 K to $T_N$, low-energy spin excitations in YbMnBi$_2$ spontaneously change from isotropic to anisotropic in spin space within the tetragonal plane, forming a dynamic spin nematic phase around 400 K due to heavy Yb-induced spin-orbit coupling, before gapping out below $T_N$. Similar measurements on CaMnBi$_2$ reveal isotropic paramagnetic scattering without a spin nematic phase above $T_N$. Under an in-plane magnetic field, the Yb$^{3+}$ moments may interact with the dynamic spin nematic phase to induce nonzero SSC, giving rise to AHE and an anomalous Nernst effect (ANE) in YbMnBi$_2$ that are absent in CaMnBi$_2$ above $T_N$. A symmetry-based Ginzburg-Landau analysis shows that coupling terms between the nematic order and SSC are allowed under an external magnetic field, which could explain the rapid increase of AHE with field in YbMnBi$_2$. Our results provide compelling evidence for dynamic SSC-induced AHE and ANE in the paramagnetic phase of a compensated collinear antiferromagnet, opening a new avenue for the physics of composite spin orders and room-temperature spintronics without magnetic order.

cond-mat.str-el↗