Francesca Dominici — Page 4

arXiv2010

A smoothing approach for masking spatial data

Individual-level health data are often not publicly available due to confidentiality; masked data are released instead. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the utility of using the masked data in statistical analyses such as regression. In this paper we propose a data masking method which is based on spatial smoothing techniques. The proposed method allows for selecting both the form and the degree of masking, thus resulting in a large degree of flexibility. We investigate the utility of the masked data sets in terms of the mean square error (MSE) of regression parameter estimates when fitting a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to the masked data. We also show that incorporating prior knowledge on the spatial pattern of the exposure into the data masking may reduce the bias and MSE of the parameter estimates. By evaluating both utility and disclosure risk as functions of the form and the degree of masking, our method produces a risk-utility profile which can facilitate the selection of masking parameters. We apply the method to a study of racial disparities in mortality rates using data on more than 4 million Medicare enrollees residing in 2095 zip codes in the Northeast region of the United States.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2008

Gamma shape mixtures for heavy-tailed distributions

An important question in health services research is the estimation of the proportion of medical expenditures that exceed a given threshold. Typically, medical expenditures present highly skewed, heavy tailed distributions, for which (a) simple variable transformations are insufficient to achieve a tractable low-dimensional parametric form and (b) nonparametric methods are not efficient in estimating exceedance probabilities for large thresholds. Motivated by this context, in this paper we propose a general Bayesian approach for the estimation of tail probabilities of heavy-tailed distributions, based on a mixture of gamma distributions in which the mixing occurs over the shape parameter. This family provides a flexible and novel approach for modeling heavy-tailed distributions, it is computationally efficient, and it only requires to specify a prior distribution for a single parameter. By carrying out simulation studies, we compare our approach with commonly used methods, such as the log-normal model and nonparametric alternatives. We found that the mixture-gamma model significantly improves predictive performance in estimating tail probabilities, compared to these alternatives. We also applied our method to the Medical Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS), for which we estimate the probability of exceeding a given hospitalization cost for smoking attributable diseases. We have implemented the method in the open source GSM package, available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network.

stat.AP↗