Limitations of Rotational Acceleration for Predicting Concussion: A New Injury Risk Function
Purpose: Rotational acceleration of the head has long been hypothesized to be a primary driver of concussion because it can generate shear strains in brain tissue, whereas linear acceleration has been considered less injurious. Instrumented mouthguards now enable direct six-degree-of-freedom measurements of human concussion. We tested whether rotational acceleration is a more precise predictor of concussion than linear acceleration across a multi-sport dataset. Methods: We analyzed 47 concussive and 3,805 non-concussive impacts measured by instrumented mouthguards across male and female athletes in seven sports. Logistic regression models using peak linear acceleration, peak rotational acceleration, and peak rotational velocity were evaluated using AUPRC, F1 score, and odds ratios. A derived risk function was also applied to laboratory tests of a liquid-filled football helmet technology. Results: Contrary to our hypothesis, rotational acceleration was not a more precise classifier than linear acceleration (AUPRC=0.35 vs 0.65; F1=0.31 vs 0.50) and was not an independent predictor alongside linear acceleration (ORrot=1.3, 95% CI: 0.81-1.9; ORlin=2.3, 95% CI: 1.5-3.6). Peak rotational velocity provided additional predictive value when combined with linear acceleration. In laboratory testing, liquid-filled padding reduced predicted concussion risk by up to 52% versus a standard football helmet, primarily by attenuating linear acceleration. Conclusion: Rotational acceleration was not an independent predictor of concussion and was outperformed by linear acceleration in classification. These results support broader consideration of linear acceleration and rotational velocity in concussion risk assessment and prevention.