arXiv subjects

Houman Owhadi

Publications and source records attributed to Houman Owhadi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand is served from inventory or recorded as backlog and triggers replenishment throughout the network. The state tracks inventory, outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, yielding Markovian dynamics on a tractable state space. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, while three conservation laws provide verification tools for simulator extensions. We release datasets at two catalogue scales ($C=50$ and $C=200$), with a 33-rollout scenario library at $C=50$. These datasets exhibit dynamics largely absent from fixed TSF benchmarks, including variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of three foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM) against three in-domain-trained baselines (ARIMA, ETS, PatchTST) spans four targets: demand, backlog, fill rate, and edge utilization. Comparison with ETTh1, Electricity, and Weather shows that ISOMORPH introduces forecasting regimes that differ from standard real-world TSF benchmarks, positioning it as a complementary, regenerable logistics-domain benchmark. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands across scenario configurations, providing forward UQ from parameter uncertainty and demonstrating foundation models as fast surrogates for digital-twin-based UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH. Interactive demo: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HyeminGu/ISOMORPH-demo.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Data-efficient Kernel Methods for Learning Hamiltonian Systems

Hamiltonian dynamics describe a wide range of physical systems. As such, data-driven simulations of Hamiltonian systems are important for many scientific and engineering problems. In this work, we propose kernel-based methods for identifying and forecasting Hamiltonian systems directly from trajectory data. We present two approaches: a 2-step method that reconstructs trajectories before learning the Hamiltonian, and a 1-step method that jointly infers both. Across several benchmark systems, including mass-spring dynamics, a nonlinear pendulum, and the Henon-Heiles system, we demonstrate that our framework achieves accurate, data-efficient predictions and outperforms 2-step kernel-based baselines, particularly in scarce-data regimes, while preserving the Hamiltonian structure. Moreover, we prove a priori error estimates, ensuring reliability of the learned models. We also provide a more general, problem-agnostic numerical framework that goes beyond Hamiltonian systems and can be used for data-driven learning of arbitrary dynamical systems.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Confidence intervals for functionals in constrained inverse problems via data-adaptive sampling-based calibration

We address functional uncertainty quantification for ill-posed inverse problems where it is possible to evaluate a possibly rank-deficient forward model, the observation noise distribution is known, and there are known parameter constraints. We present four constraint-aware confidence intervals extending the work of Batlle et al. (2023) by making the intervals both computationally feasible and less conservative. Our approach first shrinks the potentially unbounded constraint set compact in a data-adaptive way, obtains samples of the relevant test statistic inside this set to estimate a quantile function, and then uses these computed quantities to produce the intervals. Our data-adaptive bounding approach is based on the approach by Berger and Boos (1994), and involves defining a subset of the constraint set where the true parameter exists with high probability. This probabilistic guarantee is then incorporated into the final coverage guarantee in the form of an uncertainty budget. We then propose custom sampling algorithms to efficiently sample from this subset, even when the parameter space is high-dimensional. Optimization-based interval methods formulate confidence interval computation as two endpoint optimizations, where the optimization constraints can be set to achieve different types of interval calibration while seamlessly incorporating parameter constraints. However, choosing valid optimization constraints has been elusive. We show that all four proposed intervals achieve nominal coverage for a particular functional both theoretically and in practice, with numerical examples demonstrating superior performance of our intervals over the OSB interval in terms of both coverage and expected length. In particular, we show the superior performance in a realistic unfolding simulation from high-energy physics that is severely ill-posed and involves a rank-deficient forward model.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Graphical conditional generative modeling for digital twin modeling

Digital twin modeling, including control and data assimilation under model uncertainty, often faces an open-ended fidelity problem: adding variables, data streams, and time scales can indefinitely increase model complexity, ultimately producing systems that are difficult to maintain, validate, interpret, and use for stress or safety testing. As an alternative, one can seek parsimonious stochastic surrogate models built only on the variables needed to describe the relevant quantities of interest. We introduce a framework for discovering such variables from observational data by identifying which candidate inputs influence the full conditional law of a target quantity, rather than only its conditional mean. This distinction is essential in stochastic, coarse-grained, or partially observed systems, where dependencies may appear through changes in variability, tail behavior, multimodality, or uncertainty rather than through deterministic functional relationships. The framework couples conditional generative modeling, which learns the conditional distribution of the target given candidate inputs, with Gaussian-process-based analysis of variance (through kernel mode decomposition), which enables iterative pruning of non-influential inputs and interpretable structure discovery. In control settings, the resulting surrogate can be interpreted as a learned Markov decision process: the method identifies not only a transition model, but also the state, action, and memory variables needed to make the learned dynamics effectively Markovian. Across examples involving stochastic dynamical systems, missing variables, PDE control, reinforcement learning, and economic data, the discovered structures yield interpretable stochastic surrogates whose downstream performance is comparable to models trained on the full variable set.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

Aircast-Mars: A Mars Foundation Model for Global Weather Forecasting with HEALPix-Aware Convolutions

Foundation models for planetary atmospheres promise fast, lightweight surrogates of expensive general circulation models (GCMs) for mission planning and scientific inquiry. Here we present Aircast-Mars, a deep-learning weather prediction system for Mars trained on the Ensemble Mars Atmosphere Reanalysis System (EMARS) v1.0. We regrid temperature, zonal wind, and meridional wind fields across 28 vertical levels onto a hierarchical equal-area isolatitude pixelization (HEALPix) mesh at Nside = 64 (~110 km resolution) and train a HEALPix-aware 2D U-Net inspired by the DLESyM architecture to predict the next hourly atmospheric state. The model employs custom inter-face padding that respects the topology of the 12-face HEALPix sphere and modern ConvNeXt residual blocks with capped Gaussian Error Linear Unit (GELU) activations. While containing 4.3 million trainable parameters, a compact size compared to terrestrial weather foundation models, the network achieves a best validation Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 1.58e-5 in normalized units. Recursive autoregressive rollouts remain stable and physically coherent for 25 hours (one Martian sol), with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) growing monotonically from ~0.004 at t + 1 h to ~0.031 at t + 25 h without divergence. Compared to a baseline 3D U-Net, the HEALPix-aware architecture reduces validation loss by more than an order of magnitude while using fewer parameters. The model generates a one-hour forecast in approximately 0.5 seconds on a single GPU, offering several orders-of-magnitude speedup over traditional numerical GCMs. These results demonstrate that parsimonious, geometry-respecting neural architectures can capture synoptic-scale Martian atmospheric dynamics and provide a foundation for planetary-scale weather forecasting.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Structure-Preserving Neural Surrogates with Tractable Uncertainty Quantification

Recent advances in scientific machine learning provide a means of near-real-time solution to partial differential equations (PDEs), but lack the theoretical underpinnings of conventional simulators that support contemporary verification and validation. In this work, we construct data-driven reduced-order models that serve as structure-preserving, real-time surrogates. Remarkably, the exterior calculus that imposes physical conservation structure also exposes topological structure that we use to build a Gaussian process (GP) representation of uncertainty in state-flux relationships, ultimately yielding a Dirichlet-to-Neumann map for quantities of interest with closed-form expressions for posterior uncertainty. We specifically propose structure-preserving $H(\mathrm{div})$--$L^2$ subspaces of conventional Raviart--Thomas and $dgP_0$ elements prescribed by a lightweight transformer. Reduced-order dynamics consistent with this subspace are learned by posing a conservation law in which a GP describes the fluxes between volumes. This work hinges on a novel interface between mixed FEM spaces and GP regression; when training is posed as the optimal recovery problem (ORP), the resulting GP regression can be written as an optimization problem with equality constraints that impose a conservation structure, amenable to a fast Schur-complement training strategy. The trained model can then be solved in real time with closed-form estimators for boundary fluxes driven by prescribed Dirichlet data. The paper includes RKHS posterior error bounds for linear functionals to support uncertainty quantification, as well as numerical experiments demonstrating the accuracy of the posterior distribution as a surrogate for error estimation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Pruning Deep Neural Networks via the Marchenko--Pastur Distribution

We study a Marchenko--Pastur (MP) random-matrix approach to pruning deep neural networks with very small post-pruning fine-tuning budgets. The main practical contribution is accuracy retention under short calibration and fine-tuning schedules, rather than a long post-pruning reoptimization pipeline. The theory gives deterministic data-path certificates: if the removed component $R$ has small propagated logit effect $L_s \| R ψ_1(s) \|_\infty$, pruning decreases an elastic-net objective and preserves samples whose dense margin exceeds twice the perturbation. The zero-budget case gives perfect pruning; a prune--restore extension models weight restoration inside a fixed sparse-execution pattern; and an additive $L_2$-regularized model shows admissible random-like components vanish at the training limit, with persistent spikes stabilizing as the MP bulk collapses. Under iid-Gaussian sufficient conditions, the fitted MP edge $σ_+$ gives a high-probability layerwise budget signal. On ImageNet-1k, after only three distillation epochs, ViT-B/16 $2{:}4{+}$ToMe reaches $83.41\%$ top-1 ($-1.70$ pp from dense) at $59.81\%$ sparse-execution MAC reduction, with $1.388\times$ best-observed A40 native-$2{:}4$ backend speedup for the same checkpoint and ToMe graph; a separate no-ToMe A100 endpoint gives $2.705\times$. At structured sparsity, ViT-B/16 $6{:}12$ reaches $83.74\%$, ViT-L/16 $8{:}16$ dense+permutation reaches $85.33\%$ ($-0.51$ pp), and ConvNeXtV2-Base $12{:}16$ reaches $86.35\%$ ($-0.37$ pp). For CNNs, ResNet50 $8{:}16$ dense+permutation reaches $75.87\%$ ($-0.26$ pp), and ResNet152d CAST-conv+permutation reaches $81.33\%$ ($-1.53$ pp) at ${\sim}50\%$ MAC accounting with a $1.62\times$ A40 im2col$+2{:}4$ sparse-GEMM audit.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Dictionary learning for Kernel EDMD

Studying nonlinear dynamical systems through their state space behavior can be challenging, and one possible alternative is to analyze them via their associated Koopman operator. This turns the nonlinear problem into a linear, infinite-dimensional one. To approximate the operator in finite dimensions, extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) is a commonly used algorithm. It requires a finite list of functionals and a set of snapshots from the system to compute an approximation of the operator and its corresponding spectrum. Instead of choosing the list of functionals directly, it can be implicitly defined via kernels, a method known as kernel extended dynamic mode decomposition (kEDMD). However, one still needs to define the kernel and choose its parameter values. In this paper, we aim to streamline this process by extending dictionary learning for EDMD to kernel learning in kEDMD. By simplifying kEDMD we show how to perform gradient-based optimization over the learnable kernel parameters, and demonstrate that this method leads to useful kernels for the original kEDMD. The focus of our work is a method that takes a weighted list of kernels with randomly initialized values as input and outputs a list of kernels and parameter values suitable for approximating the Koopman operator of the underlying system. We demonstrate that unimportant kernels can be removed from the list by analyzing the weights in the weighted sum. We evaluate the method across several experiments, including the Duffing oscillator and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky PDE, showcasing the method's different strengths.

math.DS↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Kernel Selection for Kernelized Diffusion Maps

Selecting an appropriate kernel is a central challenge in kernel-based spectral methods. In \emph{Kernelized Diffusion Maps} (KDM), the kernel determines the accuracy of the RKHS estimator of a diffusion-type operator and hence the quality and stability of the recovered eigenfunctions. We introduce two complementary approaches to adaptive kernel selection for KDM. First, we develop a variational outer loop that learns continuous kernel parameters, including bandwidths and mixture weights, by differentiating through the Cholesky-reduced KDM eigenproblem with an objective combining eigenvalue maximization, subspace orthonormality, and RKHS regularization. Second, we propose an unsupervised cross-validation pipeline that selects kernel families and bandwidths using an eigenvalue-sum criterion together with random Fourier features for scalability. Both methods share a common theoretical foundation: we prove Lipschitz dependence of KDM operators on kernel weights, continuity of spectral projectors under a gap condition, a residual-control theorem certifying proximity to the target eigenspace, and exponential consistency of the cross-validation selector over a finite kernel dictionary.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Fluids You Can Trust: Property-Preserving Operator Learning for Incompressible Flows

We present a novel property-preserving kernel-based operator learning method for incompressible flows governed by the incompressible Navier--Stokes equations. Traditional numerical solvers incur significant computational costs to respect incompressibility. Operator learning offers efficient surrogate models, but current neural operators fail to exactly enforce physical properties such as incompressibility, periodicity, and turbulence. Our kernel method maps input functions to expansion coefficients of output functions in a property-preserving kernel basis, ensuring that predicted velocity fields $\textit{analytically}$ and $\textit{simultaneously}$ preserve the aforementioned physical properties. Our method leverages efficient numerical linear algebra, simple rootfinding, and streaming to allow for training at-scale on desktop GPUs. We also present universal approximation results and both pessimistic and more realistic $\textit{a priori}$ convergence rates for our framework. We evaluate the method on challenging 2D and 3D, laminar and turbulent, incompressible flow problems. Our method achieves up to six orders of magnitude lower relative $\ell_2$ errors upon generalization and trains up to five orders of magnitude faster compared to neural operators, despite our method being trained on desktop GPUs and neural operators being trained on cutting-edge GPU servers. Moreover, while our method enforces incompressibility analytically, neural operators exhibit very large deviations. Our results show that our method provides an accurate and efficient surrogate for incompressible flows.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2026

Tensor Gaussian Processes: Efficient Solvers for Nonlinear PDEs

Machine learning solvers for partial differential equations (PDEs) have attracted growing interest. However, most existing approaches, such as neural network solvers, rely on stochastic training, which is inefficient and typically requires a great many training epochs. Gaussian process (GP)/kernel-based solvers, while mathematical principled, suffer from scalability issues when handling large numbers of collocation points often needed for challenging or higher-dimensional PDEs. To overcome these limitations, we propose TGPS, a tensor-GP-based solver that introduces factor functions along each input dimension using one-dimensional GPs and combines them via tensor decomposition to approximate the full solution. This design reduces the task to learning a collection of one-dimensional GPs, substantially lowering computational complexity, and enabling scalability to massive collocation sets. For efficient nonlinear PDE solving, we use a partial freezing strategy and Newton's method to linerize the nonlinear terms. We then develop an alternating least squares (ALS) approach that admits closed-form updates, thereby substantially enhancing the training efficiency. We establish theoretical guarantees on the expressivity of our model, together with convergence proof and error analysis under standard regularity assumptions. Experiments on several benchmark PDEs demonstrate that our method achieves superior accuracy and efficiency compared to existing approaches. The code is released at https://github.com/BayesianAIGroup/TGPSolve-NonLinear-PDEs

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Kernel Methods for Some Transport Equations with Application to Learning Kernels for the Approximation of Koopman Eigenfunctions: A Unified Approach via Variational Methods, Green's Functions and the Method of Characteristics

We present a unified theoretical and computational framework for constructing reproducing kernels tailored to transport equations and adapted to Koopman eigenfunctions of nonlinear dynamical systems. These eigenfunctions satisfy a transport-type partial differential equation (PDE) that we invert using three analytically grounded methods: (i) A Lions-type variational principle in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), (ii) convolution with a Green's function, and (iii) a resolvent operator constructed via Laplace transforms along characteristic flows. We prove that these three constructions yield identical kernels under mild smoothness and causality assumptions. We further show that the associated kernel eigenfunctions (Mercer modes) converge in L^2 to true Koopman eigenfunctions when the latter lie in the RKHS. Our approach is numerically realized through a mesh-free, convex optimization framework, enhanced with boundary regularization to handle eigenfunction blow-up. A multiple-kernel learning (MKL) scheme selects kernels automatically via residual minimization. Finally, we demonstrate that the same framework applies verbatim to a broader class of linear transport PDEs, including the advection, continuity, and Liouville equations. The unification of variational principles, Green's functions, and the method of characteristics enables the development of novel schemes for approximating eigenfunctions of transport equations, including those of the Koopman operator, and introduces a data-driven approach for learning kernels tailored to these approximations. Numerical experiments confirm the practical utility and robustness of the method.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Kernel Methods for Stochastic Dynamical Systems with Application to Koopman Eigenfunctions: Feynman-Kac Representations and RKHS Approximation

We extend the unified kernel framework for transport equations and Koopman eigenfunctions, developed in previous work by the authors for deterministic systems, to stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In the deterministic setting, three analytically grounded constructions-Lions-type variational principles, Green's function convolution, and resolvent operators along characteristic flows--were shown to yield identical reproducing kernels. For stochastic systems, the Koopman generator includes a second-order diffusion term, transforming the first-order hyperbolic transport equation into a second-order elliptic-parabolic PDE. This fundamental change necessitates replacing the method of characteristics with probabilistic representations based on the Feynman--Kac formula. Our main contributions include: (i) extension of all three kernel constructions to stochastic systems via Feynman--Kac path-integral representations; (ii) proof of kernel equivalence under uniform ellipticity assumptions; (iii) a collocation-based computational framework incorporating second-order differential operators; (iv) error bounds separating RKHS approximation error from Monte Carlo sampling error; (v) analysis of how diffusion affects numerical conditioning; and (vi) connections to generator EDMD, diffusion maps, and kernel analog forecasting. Numerical experiments on Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes, nonlinear SDEs with varying diffusion strength, and multi-dimensional systems validate the theoretical developments and demonstrate that moderate diffusion can improve numerical stability through elliptic regularization.

math.DS↗

arXiv2026

KROM: Kernelized Reduced Order Modeling

We propose KROM, a kernel-based reduced-order framework for fast solution of nonlinear partial differential equations. KROM formulates PDE solution as a minimum-norm (Gaussian-process) recovery problem in an RKHS, and accelerates the resulting kernel solves by sparsifying the precision matrix via sparse Cholesky factorization. A central ingredient is an empirical kernel constructed from a snapshot library of PDE solutions (generated under varying forcings, initial data, boundary data, or parameters). This snapshot-driven kernel adapts to problem-specific structure -- boundary behavior, oscillations, nonsmooth features, linear constraints, conservation and dissipation laws -- thereby reducing the dependence on hand-tuned stationary kernels. The resulting method yields an implicit reduced model: after sparsification, only a localized subset of effective degrees of freedom is used online. We report numerical results for semilinear elliptic equations, discontinuous-coefficient Darcy flow, viscous Burgers, Allen--Cahn, and two-dimensional Navier--Stokes, showing that empirical kernels can match or outperform Matérn baselines, especially in nonsmooth regimes. We also provide error bounds that separate discretization effects, snapshot-space approximation error, and sparse-Cholesky approximation error.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Discovery of Probabilistic Dirichlet-to-Neumann Maps on Graphs

Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps enable the coupling of multiphysics simulations across computational subdomains by ensuring continuity of state variables and fluxes at artificial interfaces. We present a novel method for learning Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps on graphs using Gaussian processes, specifically for problems where the data obey a conservation constraint from an underlying partial differential equation. Our approach combines discrete exterior calculus and nonlinear optimal recovery to infer relationships between vertex and edge values. This framework yields data-driven predictions with uncertainty quantification across the entire graph, even when observations are limited to a subset of vertices and edges. By optimizing over the reproducing kernel Hilbert space norm while applying a maximum likelihood estimation penalty on kernel complexity, our method ensures that the resulting surrogate strictly enforces conservation laws without overfitting. We demonstrate our method on two representative applications: subsurface fracture networks and arterial blood flow. Our results show that the method maintains high accuracy and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates even under severe data scarcity, highlighting its potential for scientific applications where limited data and reliable uncertainty quantification are critical.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Solving Functional PDEs with Gaussian Processes and Applications to Functional Renormalization Group Equations

We present an operator learning framework for solving non-perturbative functional renormalization group equations, which are integro-differential equations defined on functionals. Our proposed approach uses Gaussian process operator learning to construct a flexible functional representation formulated directly on function space, making it independent of a particular equation or discretization. Our method is flexible, and can apply to a broad range of functional differential equations while still allowing for the incorporation of physical priors in either the prior mean or the kernel design. We demonstrate the performance of our method on several relevant equations, such as the Wetterich and Wilson--Polchinski equations, showing that it achieves equal or better performance than existing approximations such as the local-potential approximation, while being significantly more flexible. In particular, our method can handle non-constant fields, making it promising for the study of more complex field configurations, such as instantons.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A Dynamics-Informed Gaussian Process Framework for 2D Stochastic Navier-Stokes via Quasi-Gaussianity

The recent proof of quasi-Gaussianity for the 2D stochastic Navier--Stokes (SNS) equations by Coe, Hairer, and Tolomeo establishes that the system's unique invariant measure is equivalent (mutually absolutely continuous) to the Gaussian measure of its corresponding linear Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (OU) process. While Gaussian process (GP) frameworks are increasingly used for fluid dynamics, their priors are often chosen for convenience rather than being rigorously justified by the system's long-term dynamics. In this work, we bridge this gap by introducing a probabilistic framework for 2D SNS built directly upon this theoretical foundation. We construct our GP prior precisely from the stationary covariance of the linear OU model, which is explicitly defined by the forcing spectrum and dissipation. This provides a principled, GP prior with rigorous long-time dynamical justification for turbulent flows, bridging SPDE theory and practical data assimilation.

math.DS↗

arXiv2025

Operator Learning at Machine Precision

Neural operator learning methods have garnered significant attention in scientific computing for their ability to approximate infinite-dimensional operators. However, increasing their complexity often fails to substantially improve their accuracy, leaving them on par with much simpler approaches such as kernel methods and more traditional reduced-order models. In this article, we set out to address this shortcoming and introduce CHONKNORIS (Cholesky Newton--Kantorovich Neural Operator Residual Iterative System), an operator learning paradigm that can achieve machine precision. CHONKNORIS draws on numerical analysis: many nonlinear forward and inverse PDE problems are solvable by Newton-type methods. Rather than regressing the solution operator itself, our method regresses the Cholesky factors of the elliptic operator associated with Tikhonov-regularized Newton--Kantorovich updates. The resulting unrolled iteration yields a neural architecture whose machine-precision behavior follows from achieving a contractive map, requiring far lower accuracy than end-to-end approximation of the solution operator. We benchmark CHONKNORIS on a range of nonlinear forward and inverse problems, including a nonlinear elliptic equation, Burgers' equation, a nonlinear Darcy flow problem, the Calderón problem, an inverse wave scattering problem, and a problem from seismic imaging. We also present theoretical guarantees for the convergence of CHONKNORIS in terms of the accuracy of the emulated Cholesky factors. Additionally, we introduce a foundation model variant, FONKNORIS (Foundation Newton--Kantorovich Neural Operator Residual Iterative System), which aggregates multiple pre-trained CHONKNORIS experts for diverse PDEs to emulate the solution map of a novel nonlinear PDE. Our FONKNORIS model is able to accurately solve unseen nonlinear PDEs such as the Klein--Gordon and Sine--Gordon equations.

cs.LG↗