arXiv subjects

Ioannis Anagnostides

Publications and source records attributed to Ioannis Anagnostides.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

On the Complexity of Correlated Equilibria Beyond Normal-Form Games

Correlated equilibria are a fundamental solution concept in game theory. However, despite decades of research, the complexity beyond games of polynomial type -- such as extensive-form games, congestion or routing games, and more broadly concave games -- has remained a major open problem, first highlighted by Papadimitriou and Roughgarden (JACM '08). In this paper, we resolve several long-standing questions concerning the complexity of correlated equilibria and swap regret minimization. First, we show that computing a correlated equilibrium in concave quadratic games is as hard as computing the fixed point of a contraction mapping (Contr), providing the first strong evidence of intractability. Moreover, we establish an unconditional, information-theoretic lower bound ruling out the existence of a strongly sublinear swap regret minimizer: any online learning algorithm requires exponentially many iterations in the dimension $d$ to guarantee at most $1/\text{poly}(d)$ (average) swap regret. To circumvent these hardness results, we examine the complexity of $Φ$-equilibria -- tractable relaxations of correlated equilibria. We obtain a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS) for computing poly-dimensional $Φ$-equilibria in general concave games. We complement this by showing that Contr-hardness persists even under poly-dimensional swap deviations in the regime where the precision $ε$ is exponentially small. Finally, we show that Contr-hardness can be bypassed in the canonical setting of concave \emph{quadratic games}, for which we provide a $\text{poly}(d, \log(1/ε))$-time algorithm for computing poly-dimensional $Φ$-equilibria. As a byproduct, we obtain an algorithm for computing fixed points of a mapping that is contracting with respect to an unknown Mahalanobis norm, which could be of independent interest.

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arXiv2026

Steering No-Regret Learners to a Desired Equilibrium

A mediator observes no-regret learners playing an extensive-form game repeatedly across $T$ rounds. The mediator attempts to steer players toward some desirable predetermined equilibrium by giving (nonnegative) payments to players. We call this the steering problem. The steering problem captures problems several problems of interest, among them equilibrium selection and information design (persuasion). If the mediator's budget is unbounded, steering is trivial because the mediator can simply pay the players to play desirable actions. We study two bounds on the mediator's payments: a total budget and a per-round budget. If the mediator's total budget does not grow with $T$, we show that steering is impossible. However, we show that it is enough for the total budget to grow sublinearly with $T$, that is, for the average payment to vanish. When players' full strategies are observed at each round, we show that constant per-round budgets permit steering. In the more challenging setting where only trajectories through the game tree are observable, we show that steering is impossible with constant per-round budgets in general extensive-form games, but possible in normal-form games or if the per-round budget may itself depend on $T$. We also show how our results can be generalized to the case when the equilibrium is being computed online while steering is happening. We supplement our theoretical positive results with experiments highlighting the efficacy of steering in large games.

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arXiv2026

Scale-Invariant Regret Matching and Online Learning with Optimal Convergence: Bridging Theory and Practice in Zero-Sum Games

A considerable chasm has been looming for decades between theory and practice in zero-sum game solving through first-order methods. Although a convergence rate of $T^{-1}$ has long been established, the most effective paradigm in practice is counterfactual regret minimization (CFR), which is based on regret matching and its modern variants. In particular, the state of the art across most benchmarks is predictive regret matching$^+$ (PRM$^+$). Yet, such algorithms can exhibit slower $T^{-1/2}$ convergence even in self-play. In this paper, we close the gap between theory and practice. We propose a new scale-invariant and parameter-free variant of PRM$^+$, which we call IREG-PRM$^+$. We show that it achieves $T^{-1/2}$ best-iterate and $T^{-1}$ (i.e., optimal) average-iterate convergence guarantees, while also being on par or even better relative to PRM$^+$ on benchmark games. From a technical standpoint, we draw an analogy between (IREG-)PRM$^+$ and optimistic gradient descent with adaptive learning rate. Reflecting this theoretical bridge, we find that the adaptive version of optimistic gradient descent we consider performs on par with IREG-PRM$^+$. This demystifies the effectiveness of the regret matching family vis-a-vis more standard optimization techniques. Moreover, we extend our analysis beyond zero-sum games to a family of variational inequality problems that includes harmonic games, as well as extensive-form games with fully-mixed equilibria, via a new and intriguing connection between CFR and harmonic games. Unlike prior work in harmonic games, our algorithms do not require knowing the underlying weights by virtue of scale invariance. Under the weighted Minty condition, we show that any algorithm satisfying a scale-invariant RVU property (such as IREG-PRM$^+$) has constant regret (in self-play) and $T^{-1/2}$ iterate convergence.

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arXiv2026

Decision Making under Imperfect Recall: Algorithms and Benchmarks

In game theory, imperfect-recall decision problems model situations in which an agent forgets information it held before. They encompass games such as the ``absentminded driver'' and team games with limited communication. In this paper, we introduce the first benchmark suite for imperfect-recall decision problems. Our benchmarks capture a variety of problem types, including ones concerning privacy in AI systems that elicit sensitive information, and AI safety via testing of agents in simulation. Across 61 problem instances generated using this suite, we evaluate the performance of different algorithms for finding first-order optimal strategies in such problems. In particular, we introduce the family of regret matching (RM) algorithms for nonlinear constrained optimization. This class of parameter-free algorithms has enjoyed tremendous success in solving large two-player zero-sum games, but, surprisingly, they were hitherto relatively unexplored beyond that setting. Our key finding is that RM algorithms consistently outperform commonly employed first-order optimizers such as projected gradient descent, often by orders of magnitude. This establishes, for the first time, the RM family as a formidable approach to large-scale constrained optimization problems.

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arXiv2026

The Complexity of Equilibrium Refinements in Potential Games

The complexity of computing equilibrium refinements has been at the forefront of algorithmic game theory research, but it has remained open in the seminal class of potential games; we close this fundamental gap in this paper. We first show that computing a pure(-strategy) perfect or proper equilibrium is $\mathsf{PLS}$-complete in concise potential games in normal form. For pure perfect equilibria, we extend this result to general polytope games, which includes extensive-form games. We next turn to more structured classes of games, namely symmetric network congestion and symmetric matroid congestion games. For both classes, we show that a pure perfect equilibrium can be computed in polynomial time, strengthening the existing results for pure Nash equilibria. More broadly, we make a connection between strongly polynomial-time algorithms and efficient perturbed optimization using fractional interpolation. On the other hand, we establish that, for a certain class of potential games, there is an exponential separation in the length of the best-response path between perfect and Nash equilibria. Finally, for mixed strategies, we prove that computing a point geometrically near a perfect equilibrium requires a doubly exponentially small perturbation even in $3$-player potential games in normal form. As a byproduct, this significantly strengthens and simplifies a seminal result of Etessami and Yannakakis (FOCS '07). On the flip side, in the special case of polymatrix potential games, we show that equilibrium refinements are amenable to perturbed gradient descent dynamics, thereby belonging to the complexity class $\mathsf{CLS}$. This provides a principled and practical way of refining the landscape of gradient descent in constrained optimization.

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arXiv2026

The Complexity of Proper Equilibrium in Extensive-Form and Polytope Games

The proper equilibrium, introduced by Myerson (1978), is a classic refinement of the Nash equilibrium that has been referred to as the "mother of all refinements." For normal-form games, computing a proper equilibrium is known to be PPAD-complete for two-player games and FIXP$_a$-complete for games with at least three players. However, the complexity beyond normal-form games -- in particular, for extensive-form games (EFGs) -- was a long-standing open problem first highlighted by Miltersen and Sørensen (SODA '08). In this paper, we resolve this problem by establishing PPAD- and FIXP$_a$-membership (and hence completeness) of normal-form proper equilibria in two-player and multi-player EFGs respectively. Our main ingredient is a technique for computing a perturbed (proper) best response that can be computed efficiently in EFGs. This is despite the fact that, as we show, computing a best response using the classic perturbation of Kohlberg and Mertens based on the permutahedron is #P-hard even in Bayesian games. In stark contrast, we show that computing a proper equilibrium in polytope games is NP-hard. This marks the first natural class in which the complexity of computing equilibrium refinements does not collapse to that of Nash equilibria, and the first problem in which equilibrium computation in polytope games is strictly harder -- unless there is a collapse in the complexity hierarchy -- relative to extensive-form games.

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arXiv2026

Learning Potentials for Dynamic Matching and Application to Heart Transplantation

Each year, thousands of patients in need of heart transplants face life-threatening wait times due to organ scarcity. While allocation policies aim to maximize population-level outcomes, current approaches often fail to account for the dynamic arrival of organs and the composition of waitlisted candidates, thereby hampering efficiency. The United States is transitioning from rigid, rule-based allocation to more flexible data-driven models. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for non-myopic policy optimization in general online matching relying on potentials, a concept originally introduced for kidney exchange. We develop scalable and accurate ways of learning potentials that are higher-dimensional and more expressive than prior approaches. Our approach is a form of self-supervised imitation learning: the potentials are trained to mimic an omniscient algorithm that has perfect foresight. We focus on the application of heart transplant allocation and demonstrate, using real historical data, that our policies significantly outperform prior approaches -- including the current US status quo policy and the proposed continuous distribution framework -- in optimizing for population-level outcomes. Our analysis and methods come at a pivotal moment in US policy, as the current heart transplant allocation system is under review. We propose a scalable and theoretically grounded path toward more effective organ allocation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Tight Inapproximability for Welfare-Maximizing Autobidding Equilibria

We examine the complexity of computing welfare- and revenue-maximizing equilibria in autobidding second-price auctions subject to return-on-spend (RoS) constraints. We show that computing an autobidding equilibrium that approximates the welfare-optimal one within a factor of $2 - ε$ is NP-hard for any constant $ε> 0$. Moreover, deciding whether there exists an autobidding equilibrium that attains a $1/2 + ε$ fraction of the optimal welfare -- unfettered by equilibrium constraints -- is NP-hard for any constant $ε> 0$. This hardness result is tight in view of the fact that the price of anarchy (PoA) is at most $2$, and shows that deciding whether a non-trivial autobidding equilibrium exists -- one that is even marginally better than the worst-case guarantee -- is intractable. For revenue, we establish a stronger logarithmic inapproximability, while under the projection games conjecture, our reduction rules out even a polynomial approximation factor. These results significantly strengthen the APX-hardness of Li and Tang (AAAI '24). Furthermore, we refine our reduction in the presence of ML advice concerning the buyers' valuations, revealing again a close connection between the inapproximability threshold and PoA bounds. Finally, we examine relaxed notions of equilibrium attained by simple learning algorithms, establishing constant inapproximability for both revenue and welfare.

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arXiv2026

Chaos in Autobidding Auctions

As autobidding systems increasingly dominate online advertising auctions, characterizing their long-term dynamical behavior is brought to the fore. In this paper, we examine the dynamics of autobidders who optimize value subject to a return-on-spend (RoS) constraint under uniform bid scaling. Our main set of results show that simple autobidding dynamics can exhibit formally chaotic behavior. This significantly strengthens the recent results of Leme, Piliouras, Schneider, Spendlove, and Zuo (EC '24) that went as far as quasiperiodicity. Our proof proceeds by establishing that autobidding dynamics can simulate -- up to an arbitrarily small error -- a broad class of continuous-time nonlinear dynamical systems. This class contains as a special case Chua's circuit, a classic chaotic system renowned for its iconic double scroll attractor. Our reduction develops several modular gadgets, which we anticipate will find other applications going forward. Moreover, in discrete time, we show that different incarnations of mirror descent can exhibit Li-Yorke chaos, topological transitivity, and sensitivity to initial conditions, connecting along the way those dynamics to classic dynamical systems such as the logistic map and the Ricker population model. Taken together, our results reveal that the long-term behavior of ostensibly simple second-price autobidding auctions can be inherently unpredictable and complex.

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arXiv2026

Near-Optimal Dynamic Matching via Coarsening with Application to Heart Transplantation

Online matching has been a mainstay in domains such as Internet advertising and organ allocation, but practical algorithms often lack strong theoretical guarantees. We take an important step toward addressing this by developing new online matching algorithms based on a coarsening approach. Although coarsening typically implies a loss of granularity, we show that, to the contrary, aggregating offline nodes into capacitated clusters can yield near-optimal theoretical guarantees. We apply our methodology to heart transplant allocation to develop theoretically grounded policies based on structural properties of historical data. Furthermore, in simulations based on real data, our policy closely matches the performance of the omniscient benchmark, achieving competitive ratio 0.91, drastically higher than the US status quo policy's 0.51. Our work bridges the gap between data-driven heuristics and pessimistic theoretical lower bounds.

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arXiv2026

(Doubly) Exponential Lower Bounds for Follow the Regularized Leader in Potential Games

Follow the regularized leader FTRL is the premier algorithm for online optimization. However, despite decades of research on its convergence in constrained optimization -- and potential games in particular -- its behavior remained hitherto poorly understood. In this paper, we establish that FTRL can take exponential time to converge to a Nash equilibrium in two-player potential games for any (permutation-invariant) regularizer and potentially vanishing learning rate. By known equivalences, this translates to an exponential lower bound for certain mirror descent counterparts, most notably multiplicative weights update. On the positive side, we establish the potential property for FTRL and obtain an exponential upper bound $\exp(O_ε(1/ε^2))$ for any no-regret dynamics executed in a lazy, alternating fashion, matching our lower bound up to factors in the exponent. Finally, in multi-player potential games, we show that fictitious play -- the extreme version of FTRL -- can take doubly exponential time to reach a Nash equilibrium. This constitutes an exponentially stronger lower bound for the foundational learning algorithm in games.

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arXiv2026

On the Computational Complexity of Performative Prediction

Performative prediction captures the phenomenon where deploying a predictive model shifts the underlying data distribution. While simple retraining dynamics are known to converge linearly when the performative effects are weak ($ρ< 1$), the complexity in the regime $ρ> 1$ was hitherto open. In this paper, we establish a sharp phase transition: computing an $ε$-performatively stable point is PPAD-complete -- and thus polynomial-time equivalent to Nash equilibria in general-sum games -- even when $ρ= 1 + O(ε)$. This intractability persists even in the ostensibly simple setting with a quadratic loss function and linear distribution shifts. One of our key technical contributions is to extend this PPAD-hardness result to general convex domains, which is of broader interest in the complexity of variational inequalities. Finally, we address the special case of strategic classification, showing that computing a strategic local optimum is PLS-hard.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Learning and Computation of $Φ$-Equilibria at the Frontier of Tractability

$Φ$-equilibria -- and the associated notion of $Φ$-regret -- are a powerful and flexible framework at the heart of online learning and game theory, whereby enriching the set of deviations $Φ$ begets stronger notions of rationality. Recently, Daskalakis, Farina, Fishelson, Pipis, and Schneider (STOC '24) -- abbreviated as DFFPS -- settled the existence of efficient algorithms when $Φ$ contains only linear maps under a general, $d$-dimensional convex constraint set $\mathcal{X}$. In this paper, we significantly extend their work by resolving the case where $Φ$ is $k$-dimensional; degree-$\ell$ polynomials constitute a canonical such example with $k = d^{O(\ell)}$. In particular, positing only oracle access to $\mathcal{X}$, we obtain two main positive results: i) a $\text{poly}(n, d, k, \text{log}(1/ε))$-time algorithm for computing $ε$-approximate $Φ$-equilibria in $n$-player multilinear games, and ii) an efficient online algorithm that incurs average $Φ$-regret at most $ε$ using $\text{poly}(d, k)/ε^2$ rounds. We also show nearly matching lower bounds in the online learning setting, thereby obtaining for the first time a family of deviations that captures the learnability of $Φ$-regret. From a technical standpoint, we extend the framework of DFFPS from linear maps to the more challenging case of maps with polynomial dimension. At the heart of our approach is a polynomial-time algorithm for computing an expected fixed point of any $ϕ: \mathcal{X} \to \mathcal{X}$ based on the ellipsoid against hope (EAH) algorithm of Papadimitriou and Roughgarden (JACM '08). In particular, our algorithm for computing $Φ$-equilibria is based on executing EAH in a nested fashion -- each step of EAH itself being implemented by invoking a separate call to EAH.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Policy Optimization for Dynamic Heart Transplant Allocation

Heart transplantation is a viable path for patients suffering from advanced heart failure, but this lifesaving option is severely limited due to donor shortage. Although the current allocation policy was recently revised in 2018, a major concern is that it does not adequately take into account pretransplant and post-transplant mortality. In this paper, we take an important step toward addressing these deficiencies. To begin with, we use historical data from UNOS to develop a new simulator that enables us to evaluate and compare the performance of different policies. We then leverage our simulator to demonstrate that the status quo policy is considerably inferior to the myopic policy that matches incoming donors to the patient who maximizes the number of years gained by the transplant. Moreover, we develop improved policies that account for the dynamic nature of the allocation process through the use of potentials -- a measure of a patient's utility in future allocations that we introduce. We also show that batching together even a handful of donors -- which is a viable option for a certain type of donors -- further enhances performance. Our simulator also allows us to evaluate the effect of critical, and often unexplored, factors in the allocation, such as geographic proximity and the tendency to reject offers by the transplant centers.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Convergence of Regret Matching in Potential Games and Constrained Optimization

Regret matching (RM) -- and its modern variants -- is a foundational online algorithm that has been at the heart of many AI breakthrough results in solving benchmark zero-sum games, such as poker. Yet, surprisingly little is known so far in theory about its convergence beyond two-player zero-sum games. For example, whether regret matching converges to Nash equilibria in potential games has been an open problem for two decades. Even beyond games, one could try to use RM variants for general constrained optimization problems. Recent empirical evidence suggests that they -- particularly regret matching$^+$ (RM$^+$) -- attain strong performance on benchmark constrained optimization problems, outperforming traditional gradient descent-type algorithms. We show that RM$^+$ converges to an $ε$-KKT point after $O_ε(1/ε^4)$ iterations, establishing for the first time that it is a sound and fast first-order optimizer. Our argument relates the KKT gap to the accumulated regret, two quantities that are entirely disparate in general but interact in an intriguing way in our setting, so much so that when regrets are bounded, our complexity bound improves all the way to $O_ε(1/ε^2)$. From a technical standpoint, while RM$^+$ does not have the usual one-step improvement property in general, we show that it does in a certain region that the algorithm will quickly reach and remain in thereafter. In sharp contrast, our second main result establishes a lower bound: RM, with or without alternation, can take an exponential number of iterations to reach a crude approximate solution even in two-player potential games. This represents the first worst-case separation between RM and RM$^+$. Our lower bound shows that convergence to coarse correlated equilibria in potential games is exponentially faster than convergence to Nash equilibria.

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arXiv2025

The Complexity of Symmetric Equilibria in Min-Max Optimization and Team Zero-Sum Games

We consider the problem of computing stationary points in min-max optimization, with a particular focus on the special case of computing Nash equilibria in (two-)team zero-sum games. We first show that computing $ε$-Nash equilibria in $3$-player \emph{adversarial} team games -- wherein a team of $2$ players competes against a \emph{single} adversary -- is \textsf{CLS}-complete, resolving the complexity of Nash equilibria in such settings. Our proof proceeds by reducing from \emph{symmetric} $ε$-Nash equilibria in \emph{symmetric}, identical-payoff, two-player games, by suitably leveraging the adversarial player so as to enforce symmetry -- without disturbing the structure of the game. In particular, the class of instances we construct comprises solely polymatrix games, thereby also settling a question left open by Hollender, Maystre, and Nagarajan (2024). We also provide some further results concerning equilibrium computation in adversarial team games. Moreover, we establish that computing \emph{symmetric} (first-order) equilibria in \emph{symmetric} min-max optimization is \textsf{PPAD}-complete, even for quadratic functions. Building on this reduction, we further show that computing symmetric $ε$-Nash equilibria in symmetric, $6$-player ($3$ vs. $3$) team zero-sum games is also \textsf{PPAD}-complete, even for $ε= \text{poly}(1/n)$. As an immediate corollary, this precludes the existence of symmetric dynamics -- which includes many of the algorithms considered in the literature -- converging to stationary points. Finally, we prove that computing a \emph{non-symmetric} $\text{poly}(1/n)$-equilibrium in symmetric min-max optimization is \textsf{FNP}-hard.

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arXiv2025

Algorithms and Complexity for Computing Nash Equilibria in Adversarial Team Games

Adversarial team games model multiplayer strategic interactions in which a team of identically-interested players is competing against an adversarial player in a zero-sum game. Such games capture many well-studied settings in game theory, such as congestion games, but go well-beyond to environments wherein the cooperation of one team -- in the absence of explicit communication -- is obstructed by competing entities; the latter setting remains poorly understood despite its numerous applications. Since the seminal work of Von Stengel and Koller (GEB `97), different solution concepts have received attention from an algorithmic standpoint. Yet, the complexity of the standard Nash equilibrium has remained open. In this paper, we settle this question by showing that computing a Nash equilibrium in adversarial team games belongs to the class continuous local search (CLS), thereby establishing CLS-completeness by virtue of the recent CLS-hardness result of Rubinstein and Babichenko (STOC `21) in potential games. To do so, we leverage linear programming duality to prove that any $ε$-approximate stationary strategy for the team can be extended in polynomial time to an $O(ε)$-approximate Nash equilibrium, where the $O(\cdot)$ notation suppresses polynomial factors in the description of the game. As a consequence, we show that the Moreau envelop of a suitable best response function acts as a potential under certain natural gradient-based dynamics.

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arXiv2025

Expected Variational Inequalities

Variational inequalities (VIs) encompass many fundamental problems in diverse areas ranging from engineering to economics and machine learning. However, their considerable expressivity comes at the cost of computational intractability. In this paper, we introduce and analyze a natural relaxation -- which we refer to as expected variational inequalities (EVIs) -- where the goal is to find a distribution that satisfies the VI constraint in expectation. By adapting recent techniques from game theory, we show that, unlike VIs, EVIs can be solved in polynomial time under general (nonmonotone) operators. EVIs capture the seminal notion of correlated equilibria, but enjoy a greater reach beyond games. We also employ our framework to capture and generalize several existing disparate results, including from settings such as smooth games, and games with coupled constraints or nonconcave utilities.

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