arXiv subjects

Jacopo Timini

Publications and source records attributed to Jacopo Timini.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Monetary Regimes and Trade before the Classical Gold Standard: Evidence from the Latin Monetary Union

This paper reexamines the trade effects of the Latin Monetary Union (LMU), a 19th century agreement to standardize gold and silver coinage among several European countries. The LMU provides a useful setting for studying whether monetary arrangements fostered trade before the classical gold standard, when gold, silver, bimetallic, and paper regimes coexisted. Because some countries already shared other monetary standards, treating all non-member pairs as a single control group mixes pairs with and without alternative forms of monetary coordination. I classify pairs by standard and estimate the LMU effect relative to pairs without a common standard, bringing the comparison closer to those used in the literature on the gold standard and contemporary currency unions. The results suggest that the LMU increased trade between its members by approximately 30\% during its early years, when bimetallism was still credible. These effects subsequently faded, converging to zero by the end of the 1870s. More broadly, these findings also highlight the importance of accounting for the existing monetary regimes when estimating the trade effects of other international policies.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

ge_gravity2: a command for solving universal gravity models

We describe an algorithm for computing counterfactual trade flows, prices, output, and welfare in a large class of general equilibrium trade models. We introduce a command called ge_gravity2 that allows users to perform these computations in Stata. This command extends the existing ge_gravity command by allowing users to compute the general equilibrium effects of changes in trade policy in positive supply elasticity models. It can be used to solve any model that falls into the class of universal gravity models as defined by Allen, Arkolakis, and Takahashi [Universal Gravity, Journal of Political Economy, 128(2), 2020, 393-433].

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

The economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation: Evidence from the Cold War

The Cold War was the defining episode of geopolitical fragmentation in the twentieth century. Trade between East and West across the Iron Curtain (a symbolical and physical barrier dividing Europe into two distinct areas) was restricted, but the severity of these restrictions varied over time. We quantify the trade and welfare effects of the Iron Curtain and show how the difficulty of trading across the Iron Curtain fluctuated throughout the Cold War. Using a novel dataset on trade between the two economic blocs and a quantitative trade model, we find that while the Iron Curtain at its height represented a tariff equivalent of 48% in 1951, trade between East and West gradually became easier until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Despite the easing of trade restrictions, we estimate that the Iron Curtain roughly halved East-West trade flows and caused substantial welfare losses in the Eastern bloc countries that persisted until the end of the Cold War. Conversely, the Iron Curtain led to an increase in intra-bloc trade, especially in the Eastern bloc, which outpaced the integration of Western Europe in the run-up to the formation of the European Union.

econ.GN↗