Randomized Online Fair Division: High-Probability and Expected Realized Fairness
We study randomized algorithms for the fully online allocation of indivisible goods among $n\ge2$ agents with nonnegative additive valuations. Goods arrive sequentially and must be allocated immediately and irrevocably, with only $n$ known in advance. Since exact ex-ante envy freeness and proportionality are readily achievable, while no positive ex-post approximation is possible for the fairness notions considered here, we study the intermediate notions of high-probability fairness and expected realized fairness. Against a non-adaptive adversary, we give a randomized algorithm for proportionality up to one good (PROP1) whose parameter depends only on $n$ and that preserves exact ex-ante envy-freeness and proportionality. At confidence $1-δ$, its PROP1 guarantee improves on independent uniform allocation (Rand) by a factor of $Ω(\log n)$, uniformly over $δ\in(0,1/2]$. As $n\to\infty$, its expected realized PROP1 factor is at least $\frac{3-\sqrt5}{2}-o(1)$. We also show that the expected realized PROP1 factor of Rand is $(1+o(1))/\log n$, yielding an improvement of at least $\bigl(\frac{3-\sqrt5}{2}-o(1)\bigr)\log n$ for our algorithm. For every randomized online algorithm and every positive approximation factor, the success probability can be made arbitrarily small for envy freeness up to any good (EFX) and at most $\frac{n+1}{2n}$ for envy freeness up to one good (EF1). Consequently, every randomized fully online algorithm has an expected realized EFX guarantee of zero and an expected realized EF1 guarantee of at most $\frac{n+1}{2n}$.