Jonathan Bostock | Search arXiv

arXiv2026

When can we trust untrusted monitoring? A safety case sketch across collusion strategies

AIs are increasingly being deployed with greater autonomy and capabilities, which increases the risk that a misaligned AI may be able to cause catastrophic harm. Untrusted monitoring -- using one untrusted model to oversee another -- is one approach to reducing risk. Justifying the safety of an untrusted monitoring deployment is challenging because developers cannot safely deploy a misaligned model to test their protocol directly. In this paper, we develop upon existing methods for rigorously demonstrating safety based on pre-deployment testing. We relax assumptions that previous AI control research made about the collusion strategies a misaligned AI might use to subvert untrusted monitoring. We develop a taxonomy covering passive self-recognition, causal collusion (hiding pre-shared signals), acausal collusion (hiding signals via Schelling points), and combined strategies. We create a safety case sketch to clearly present our argument, explicitly state our assumptions, and highlight unsolved challenges. We identify conditions under which passive self-recognition could be a more effective collusion strategy than those studied previously. Our work builds towards more robust evaluations of untrusted monitoring.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Stress-testing Alignment Midtraining

When aligning frontier models through post-training techniques, it is not possible to directly demonstrate all of the behaviours we want a model to exhibit in all possible deployment environments; our model must generalise outside of the post-training distribution. One proposed solution is alignment midtraining (AMT), which continues pretraining on large volumes of alignment-relevant documents to encourage generalisation in later stages of training. Despite the prominence of AMT as an alignment approach, there is limited public evidence for its effectiveness. To resolve this, we identify several assumptions around midtraining and evaluate them across scale: up to 110 billion-parameter models and 1 billion midtraining tokens. For instance, we study a scenario where post-training data is ambiguous between two possible motivations. We find that midtraining can steer the model's motivation in simple versions of this setting. However, the presence of a tiny fraction of finetuning data which suggests a competing motivation erases the effects of AMT. We also study scenarios in which we want an AI to follow a number of rules, but only demonstrate a subset of them. We find that demonstrations must be present either in midtraining or post-training datasets for these rules to be robustly learned. Based on these and other findings, we do not believe that there is sufficient public evidence for us to confidently state that midtraining can address the core difficulties inherent in aligning powerful AI systems.

cs.CL↗