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Jonathan Meagher

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan Meagher.

2 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2007

Five year prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison of simple statistical methods

We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall goal, in this study we compare the historical performance of three simple statistical methods for making five-year SST forecasts. We also present SST forecasts for 2006-2010 using these methods and compare them to forecasts made from two structural time series models.

physics.ao-ph↗
arXiv2006

Year-ahead Prediction of Hurricane Season Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic

One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards setting up such a system this article compares three simple statistical methods for the year-ahead prediction of the relevant SSTs.

physics.ao-ph↗