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Jose Blanchet

Publications and source records attributed to Jose Blanchet.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Convex Regression at Scale: Geometry-Preserving Constraint Sparsification

Convex regression provides a flexible nonparametric estimation framework while incorporating appropriate shape information. However, its standard least-squares formulation has $O(n^2)$ supporting-hyperplane constraints creating a computational bottleneck as the sample size $n$ increases. We study a $K$-nearest-neighbor (KNN) localized relaxation for convex regression where we for each sample, we only maintain the $K$ nearest hyperplane constraints. Under mild regularity conditions, we establish statistical guarantees for our modified estimator in every fixed dimension $d\ge2$. In particular, for $d>4$, the population risk of our modified problem can be shown to have equivalent convergence rates as the original least square convex regression estimator of $\widetilde O(n^{-2/d})$ using neighborhoods sizes (i.e. $K=K_n$) of order $\widetilde O(n^{2(d-1)/(2d-1)})$ for general convex functions and $\widetilde O(n^{(d+1)/(d+2)})$ for strongly convex functions. To corroborate our theory, we implement iterative optimization methods to compare the prediction accuracy of the KNN relaxation with those of the full estimator across synthetic convex benchmarks. Our experiments demonstrate that KNN prediction risk approaches the full-estimator prediction risk at neighborhood sizes matching the theoretical scale.

stat.ML↗

DRO: A Python Library for Distributionally Robust Optimization in Machine Learning

We introduce dro, an open-source Python library for distributionally robust optimization (DRO) for regression and classification problems. The library implements 15 DRO formulations and 9 backbone models, enabling 85 distinct DRO methods. Furthermore, dro is compatible with both scikit-learn and PyTorch through a unified interface, and uses approximation techniques to reduce runtime for some computationally demanding formulations. Comprehensive documentation is available at https://python-dro.org.

cs.LG↗

Efficient Importance Sampling of Brownian Motion Avoiding Poissonian Obstacles for Long Time

We design and analyze an efficient importance sampling estimator of the probability that, over a long time horizon, a Brownian particle avoids obstacles of a fixed radius placed according to an independent Poisson random field. Donsker and Varadhan identify the exponential decay rate of this probability as the optimal balance between the volume cleared of obstacles and the spectral cost of confinement, and the confinement results of Sznitman and Povel show that the particle survives by localizing its path in a ball of (roughly) deterministic radius but with a random center. This strategy makes direct Monte Carlo exponentially ineffective over long horizons, and makes a practical yet asymptotically optimal sampler non-trivial to design, since the sampler must track the random region swept out by the path. For every fixed dimension \(d\ge2\) and every fixed obstacle radius, we construct a sequential importance sampler that is unbiased and asymptotically optimal. The full algorithm has finite expected total work at every fixed horizon, and both its expected work and the coefficient of variation grow at most subexponentially with the time horizon. The method avoids repeatedly solving eigenvalue problems on the evolving explored regions and suits parallel implementation. Numerical experiments illustrate the efficiency of the method.

math.PR↗

Frequency-Uniform Log-Regret Reinforcement Learning for Diffusions

High-frequency control problems are often studied through time discretization, but refining the timestep $δ$ increases the discrete horizon $H=T/δ$ and can make standard finite-horizon regret guarantees deteriorate even when the physical horizon $T$ is fixed. We study episodic value-based reinforcement learning for Euler discretizations of controlled diffusions. The performance is measured as the cumulative regret over $K$ episodes relative to the optimal policy of the corresponding Euler model. Under stability and regularity conditions on value function gradients, Bellman residual derivatives, and fitted critics, we prove an $\mathcal{O}(\log K)$ regret bound with constants uniform in $δ$. For dynamics with drift linear in unknown parameters and unknown constant diffusion covariance, we verify localized versions of these conditions for a constrained, model-based controlled-diffusion fitted-$Q$ algorithm (CD-FQ) and obtain high-probability $\mathcal{O}(\log K\log\log K)$ regret for fixed and finite $T$, again with constants uniform in $δ$.

math.OC↗

PaperFormalizer: Author-in-the-Loop Autoformalization of Research Papers in Lean

Even a carefully proofread paper can leave small gaps in its proofs or its stated assumptions. We introduce PaperFormalizer, a Lean-based agentic pipeline that helps authors find and close such gaps in their own papers and turn each paper into a Lean-verified version. Starting from the LaTeX source, PaperFormalizer transcribes the paper into a dependency graph of statements, audits each statement in natural language for faithfulness, ambiguity and correctness, and then formalizes and proves the statements in Lean against Mathlib, optional domain libraries and the author's personal toolkit. Only the author knows what a statement is meant to say and how a formalization gap in a result is best fixed. The pipeline therefore stops and asks the author whenever a statement admits more than one reading, presents every repair, in natural language and TeX symbols, as a proposal that the author can accept, decline or redirect, and leaves to the author every decision that could potentially change what the paper claims. The output is an annotated and revised version of the paper, a report of the changes, and Lean code in which each declaration is linked to the statement it formalizes. The author's toolkit grows as more papers are formalized, and authors can share their verified papers so that researchers who build on them can reuse their Lean code. By making verified papers practical to produce, PaperFormalizer aims to make research that rests on mathematical proofs more robust. PaperFormalizer runs inside a coding agent (Claude Code or Codex) and is available at https://github.com/Jiyuan-Tan/PaperFormalizer. Papers with Lean code shared by users are available at https://paperformalizer.org.

cs.AI↗

Strategic Index Reconstitution: Differential Games, Closed-Loop Equilibria and Mean-Field Dynamics

We study a continuous-time, multiasset trading game around index reconstitution, in which opportunistic traders have heterogeneous beliefs about the future index constitution and interact through transient cross-asset price impact and instantaneous execution costs. Opportunistic traders build inventory based on their individual beliefs about the future index constitution before a public announcement, adjust their positions to the revealed composition, and unwind them against the indexer's prescribed rebalancing trades at the implementation date when the new index composition takes effect. Under a no-price-manipulation condition, we construct a subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium. Its affine feedback policies are computed from a non-standard matrix Riccati equation and linear ODEs whose number and dimensions are independent of population size. Under mean-field scaling, we construct a mean-field equilibrium and obtain quantitative convergence and approximate-Nash bounds. Numerical illustrations show that greater competition among opportunists dampens price swings around implementation and that opportunistic trading lowers the indexer's implementation shortfall unless price resilience is very low. Holding the average belief fixed, greater belief dispersion can increase gross trading volume without changing net aggregate opportunist holdings or price impact.

math.OC↗

Exact Simulation of Multivariate Diffusions and Bridges

We provide the first generic exact sampling algorithms with finite expected total cost for uniformly elliptic multivariate diffusions and the corresponding diffusion bridges with bounded coefficients and bounded continuous first derivatives. We formulate a computational cost model that counts work in terms of generation of Gaussian and uniform random variables to execute acceptance--rejection sampling, as well as function evaluations of the drift and diffusion coefficients, together with elementary operations such as sums and multiplications. Our constructions combine randomized parametrix expansions with a finite weighted graph that incorporates both bridge endpoints into the proposal. The exact sampling of the diffusion is minimax optimal jointly in the horizon and number of requested observations, while bridge sampling is minimax optimal in the number of observations for fixed horizon and endpoints.

math.PR↗

Regret-Optimal Linear-Quadratic Control under Distributional Drift

We study finite-horizon LQR with independent disturbances whose laws may drift over time. We address uncertainty in this evolution through ex-ante distributionally robust regret optimization (DRRO), which minimizes worst-case excess expected cost relative to the optimal causal controller that knows the law sequence. To specify the admissible law sequences, we introduce a temporally coupled moment ambiguity set with a Gelbrich kinetic-energy budget and a second budget limiting departures from reference moments and persistent cumulative mismatch. Despite the coupling of moments across time, affine disturbance-feedback synthesis reduces exactly to a semidefinite program. An optimal policy uses past disturbances to predict the correction to nominal LQR determined by current and future disturbance means. The SDP solution also yields worst-case moment paths and corresponding laws. For standard distributionally robust optimization (DRO), the analogous SDP relaxation can have a duality gap. Portfolio liquidation experiments show substantially lower worst-case regret over the drifting ambiguity set than common-law DRRO and nominal control.

math.OC↗

Quenched First-Passage Asymptotics for Branching Random Walk on a Hamming Cube

We study continuous-time supercritical branching random walks in space-inhomogeneous random environment on the Hamming cube $\{0,1,\dots,b-1\}^d$, where the reproduction laws at each site are i.i.d. sampled. This serves as an idealized model for RNA sequence evolution with mutation--selection balance. The reproduction and mutation events are decoupled, and we assume that the reproduction law has essential supremum strictly below the deterministic mutation rate. Our main results provide tight asymptotics of the first-passage times for the model, uniformly in the origin--target distance $1\le m\le d$ as $d\to\infty$, conditional upon survival. We prove both quenched tightness in environment probability and annealed tightness around a deterministic center. Moreover, we identify the leading order of the deterministic center and develop an expansion in the sparse-distance regime $m=o(d)$. Our proof technique derives quantitative approximations of the model using an independent-visit variant, where revisits still resample the environment. As an application, we show that on a macroscopic scale, increasing the reproduction law in convex order decreases the first-passage times, and increasing the mutation rate increases the first-passage times for the sparse regime.

math.PR↗

Optimal Quantum Speedups for Repeatedly Nested Expectation Estimation

We study the estimation of repeatedly nested expectations (RNEs) with a constant horizon (number of nestings) using quantum computing. We propose a quantum algorithm that achieves $\varepsilon$-error with cost $\tilde O(\varepsilon^{-1})$, up to logarithmic factors. Standard lower bounds show this scaling is essentially optimal, yielding an almost quadratic speedup over the best classical algorithm. Our results extend prior quantum speedups for single nested expectations to repeated nesting, and therefore cover a broader range of applications, including optimal stopping. This extension requires a new derandomized variant of the classical randomized Multilevel Monte Carlo (rMLMC) algorithm. Careful de-randomization is key to overcoming a variable-time issue that typically increases quantized versions of classical randomized algorithms.

quant-ph↗

Classical and Quantum Speedups for Non-Convex Optimization via Energy Conserving Descent

We present the first analytical study of ECD, focusing on the one-dimensional setting for this first installment. We formalize a stochastic ECD dynamics (sECD) with energy-preserving noise, as well as a quantum analog of the ECD Hamiltonian (qECD), providing the foundation for a quantum algorithm through Hamiltonian simulation in a tractable model where the barrier-crossing mechanism can be computed explicitly. For one-dimensional double-well objectives in the under-guessing regime, we compute the expected dynamical hitting times from a local minimum to the global minimum. We prove that both sECD and qECD exhibit exponential improvements in continuous hitting time relative to their respective gradient-based baselines, stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and quantum tunneling walk (QTW). For objectives with tall barriers, qECD admits a further hitting time improvement over sECD. Mechanistically, ECD sidesteps the exponential cost associated with rare-escape events of SGD from local minima by moving from dissipative to energy-conserving dynamics.

quant-ph↗

When Should Humans Step In? Optimal Human Dispatching in AI-Assisted Decisions

AI systems increasingly assist decision making by producing cheap factor-level assessments of complex inputs, but these assessments can be biased or incomplete. We study selective human evaluation: given AI signals, which factors should be dispatched to human experts? We formulate this human--AI collaboration problem as a factor-level information-acquisition problem. Under squared loss, the optimal dispatching rule maximizes a contextual reward; under a linear model, this reward admits a closed-form decomposition into two interpretable terms: predictive relevance and residual uncertainty in the human evaluation after conditioning on the AI signal. We instantiate the framework on peer review, decomposing papers into ten aspects and evaluating up to 3,408 ICLR submissions across three LLMs and multiple regression heads. In this retrospective proxy, where human aspect signals are extracted from existing reviews, predictions that query three of the ten aspects under the optimal dispatching rules match the full ten-aspect human benchmark. The finding holds when the human signal comes from a single noisy reviewer, and across review years. These results position principled dispatching as a practical building block for scalable human--AI decision systems. We also discuss safeguards under which such a rule can serve as decision support that leaves the final decision with a human.

stat.ML↗

INFUSER: Influence-Guided Self-Evolution Improves Reasoning

Self-evolution offers a scalable path to stronger reasoning: a pretrained language model improves itself with only minimal external supervision. Yet existing methods either depend on extensively curated or teacher-generated training data, or, when the generator runs unsupervised, reward it by a difficulty heuristic that need not improve the solver. We introduce INFUSER, an iterative co-training framework with two co-evolving roles: a Generator that drafts questions and reference golden answers from a pool of unstructured, automatically collected documents, and a Solver that improves by training on them. The solver is trained with standard correctness rewards against the generator-provided answers, while the generator is rewarded by an optimizer-aware influence score that measures whether each proposed question would actually improve the solver on the target distribution. Because this continuous, noisy influence score is poorly served by standard GRPO, we propose DuGRPO, a dual-normalized variant of GRPO, for generator training. Together, these turn the document pool into an adaptive curriculum that favors questions useful to the current solver, not just hard ones. On Qwen3-8B-Base, INFUSER outperforms strong self-evolution baselines with over 20% relative improvement on Olympiad and SuperGPQA benchmarks, and an 8B INFUSER co-evolving generator outperforms a frozen 32B thinking generator on math and coding. Ablations confirm each design choice is necessary, and two extensions, applying INFUSER to an instruction-finetuned anchor and augmenting it with rule-verifiable RLVR data, further demonstrate the flexibility and generalizability of the framework. Code is available at https://github.com/FFishy-git/INFUSER.

cs.LG↗

Distributionally Robust Regret Optimal LQR with Common Stage-Law Ambiguity

We study what is, to our knowledge, the first tractable multistage ex-ante distributionally robust regret optimization (DRRO) formulation for stochastic control. We consider finite-horizon LQR with common stage-law ambiguity, where disturbances are independent across time but drawn from the same unknown stage law whose mean and covariance lie in a Gelbrich ball around nominal moments. Unlike the benign single-stage quadratic setting, the nominal controller is generally not regret-optimal: reuse of the stage law makes past disturbances informative for future decisions. Despite the general hardness of DRRO, we show that, over affine disturbance-feedback policies, the multistage DRRO-LQR problem admits an exact semidefinite programming reformulation. An optimal controller in this class is the nominal LQR controller plus a strictly causal empirical-mean correction. We also characterize worst-case moment pairs and show that, for the DRRO-optimal policy, they are not unique. Portfolio liquidation experiments show that DRRO substantially reduces worst-case regret relative to DRO and the nominal controller, with comparatively modest increases in worst-case cost, and exhibits a learning effect: its correction matrices empirically approach the corresponding coefficients of the oracle controller that knows the true disturbance law in hindsight.

math.OC↗

Optimal Sample Complexity of Stable Discounted Markov Decision Processes

We study the optimal sample complexity of tabular reinforcement learning for infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes. The unrestricted minimax sample complexity is known to scale as $\widetildeΘ((1-γ)^{-3}ε^{-2})$, where $γ$ denotes the discount factor and $ε$ is the solution-error tolerance. However, this worst-case rate does not account for stability structures that commonly arise in operational environments. Using the variance-reduced Q-learning framework, we show that, without imposing any additional stability assumptions, both sup-norm Q-function estimation and policy learning have leading sample-complexity dependence $\widetildeΘ(H(1-γ)^{-2}ε^{-2})$, where $H=|v^*|_{\mathrm{span}}$ is the span of the optimal value function. Moreover, assuming a uniform mixing time upper bound $t_{\mathrm{mix}}$ over all policies, the optimal Q-function can be estimated up to a constant shift with sample complexity $\widetildeΘ\left(t_{\mathrm{mix}}^3ε^{-2}\right)$, independent of $(1-γ)^{-1}$. Matching lower bounds establish the sharpness of these leading dependencies and reveal a separation between estimation and control: although the Q-function can be learned up to an additive constant at a horizon-free rate, policy learning generally retains its $(1-γ)^{-2}$ dependence.

cs.LG↗

Extending Subsampling to Sequential Stopping

Fixed-width sequential stopping rules terminate a stochastic simulation once an estimated confidence interval reaches a prescribed width. Classical fixed-width theory typically relies on a strongly consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance. This makes the normalized stopping time asymptotically deterministic, allowing fixed-sample-size limit theory to be transferred to the estimator at termination. This mechanism can fail when simulation output has infinite variance or long-range dependence. Although self-normalization and subsampling can yield asymptotically valid confidence intervals at a fixed sample size, the scaling process and the stopping time may retain nondegenerate randomness, so fixed-sample-size quantiles need not provide valid coverage at termination. In this paper, we develop a unified framework based on a joint functional limit theorem for the estimation process and a scaling process. We characterize the asymptotic behavior of both the stopping time and the self-normalized estimator evaluated at termination, thereby obtaining asymptotically valid sequential confidence intervals in classical finite-variance and infinite-variance settings. Moreover, we introduce a sequential subsampling procedure that consistently estimates the distribution relevant at the stopping time without directly estimating nuisance parameters in the limit distribution. The framework is verified for heavy-tailed moving-average processes, stochastic approximation, and an M/G/1 queue with heavy-tailed service times.

math.ST↗

A Few Teacher Steps Go a Long Way: Cost-Efficient On-Policy Data Augmentation for Agent Post-Training

For LLM agents, supervised fine-tuning is not only about teacher labels' quality, but also about which interaction contexts those labels condition on. Pure behavioral cloning uses full teacher demonstrations, creating a mismatch between teacher-induced contexts seen in training and student-induced contexts encountered at test time. Recent work addresses this mismatch by querying a teacher at contexts reached by the student, often with increasingly elaborate filtering of the teacher's continuations. We instead frame on-policy data construction as a budget-allocation problem: under matched supervision resources, should teacher output be spent on more start-to-finish demos, longer continuations, outcome filtering, or broader coverage of learner-induced contexts? We formalize this design space through the rollout policy, switch-time distribution, continuation horizon, filtering rules, and two complementary costs: teacher inference generated before filtering and teacher supervision retained for SFT. Across HotpotQA, ALFWorld, and Terminal-Bench-Dev, bounded unfiltered teacher continuations at learner-induced contexts improve over pure behavioral cloning at matched budgets. On HotpotQA and ALFWorld, where we run the full comparison, few-step continuations match or exceed success-filtered and critical-context-filtered alternatives. Our findings suggest that a few teacher steps, placed at learner-induced contexts, can be a more cost-efficient supervision allocation than longer or more heavily curated teacher completions.

cs.LG↗

Robust Assortment Optimization from Observational Data

Assortment optimization is a fundamental challenge in modern retail and recommendation systems, where the goal is to select a subset of products that maximizes expected revenue under complex customer choice behaviors. While recent advances in data-driven methods have leveraged historical data to learn and optimize assortments, these approaches typically rely on strong assumptions -- namely, the stability of customer preferences and the correctness of the underlying choice models. However, such assumptions frequently break in real-world scenarios due to preference shifts and model misspecification, leading to poor generalization and revenue loss. Motivated by this limitation, we propose a robust framework for data-driven assortment optimization that accounts for potential distributional shifts in customer choice behavior. Our approach models potential preference shift from a nominal choice model that generates data and seeks to maximize worst-case expected revenue. We first establish the computational tractability of robust assortment planning when the nominal model is known, then advance to the data-driven setting, where we design statistically optimal algorithms that minimize the data requirements while maintaining robustness. Our theoretical analysis provides both upper bounds and matching lower bounds on the sample complexity, offering theoretical guarantees for robust generalization. Notably, we uncover and identify the notion of ``robust item-wise coverage'' as the minimal data requirement to enable sample-efficient robust assortment learning. Our work bridges the gap between robustness and statistical efficiency in assortment learning, contributing new insights and tools for reliable assortment optimization under uncertainty.

stat.ML↗