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Jose Blanchet

Publications and source records attributed to Jose Blanchet.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures

iffusion-based generative models increasingly rely on inference-time guidance, adding a drift term or reweighting mixture of experts, to improve sample quality on task-specific objectives. However, most existing techniques require repeated score or gradient evaluations, introducing bias, high computational overhead, or both. We introduce \texttt{URGE}, Unbiased Resampling via Girsanov Estimation, a derivative-free inference-time scaling algorithm that performs path-wise importance reweighting via a Girsanov change of measure. Instead of computing gradient-based particle weights in previous work, \texttt{URGE} attaches a simple multiplicative weight to each simulated trajectory and periodically resamples. No score, no Hessian, and no PDE evaluation is required. We establish an equivalence between path-wise and particle-wise SMC: the Girsanov path weight admits a backward conditional expectation that recovers the previous particle-level weights, guaranteeing that both schemes produce the same unbiased terminal law. Empirically, \texttt{URGE} outperforms existing inference-time guidance baselines on synthetic tests and diffusion-model benchmarks, achieving better generation quality, while being significantly simpler to implement and fully gradient-free.

stat.ML↗

Learning When to Trust LLM Priors: A Validated Framework for Semantic Prior Integration

Large language models (LLMs) encode rich semantic knowledge that can be useful for supervised learning, but their outputs are unreliable as statistical priors: they may be noisy, misspecified, or hallucinated. Existing LLM-informed learning methods either trust such signals directly, leaving predictions vulnerable to unreliable LLM guidance, or restrict semantic integration to a single model class. We introduce Statsformer, a validated framework for learning when to trust LLM-derived semantic priors in supervised statistical learning. Statsformer maps LLM-derived feature scores into a family of learner-specific prior-injection mechanisms across a heterogeneous library of linear and nonlinear predictors. It then uses out-of-fold validation to adaptively calibrate the influence of each prior-informed learner, allowing useful semantic information to improve prediction while attenuating weak, misspecified, or adversarial priors. This yields a guardrailed statistical learning system with an oracle-style guarantee: up to statistical error, the final predictor performs no worse than the best convex combination of its in-library candidates, including prior-free learners. Across diverse prediction tasks, informative LLM priors improve performance, while unreliable priors are automatically downweighted. These results position Statsformer as a reliability-oriented approach to LLM-informed statistical learning: rather than trusting LLM knowledge directly, it validates semantic priors against data before allowing them to influence the final predictor.

stat.ML↗

Partial Identification of Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects with Instrumental Variables via Optimal Transport

Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects (PRTEs) are generally not point-identified under standard Instrumental Variable (IV) assumptions when the instrument generates limited support in treatment propensity. We show that PRTE partial identification in the generalized Roy model can instead be formulated as a Constrained Conditional Optimal Transport (CCOT) problem over the joint conditional law of the potential outcome and the latent resistance. The resulting multidimensional CCOT problem reduces analytically to separable one-dimensional OT problems with product costs, yielding sharp closed-form bounds and avoiding direct solution of the original high-dimensional CCOT problem. We also develop estimation and inference procedures for these bounds: for discrete instruments, we use a Double Machine Learning (DML) approach based on Neyman-orthogonal scores that accommodates high-dimensional covariates while achieving the parametric $\sqrt{n}$ rate and asymptotic normality; for continuous instruments, we explicitly characterize the corresponding nonparametric convergence rates. The framework accommodates covariates, discrete and continuous instruments, and extensions to general treatment settings. In simulations and a bed-net subsidy application, the resulting bounds are substantially tighter than the moment-relaxation method.

stat.ME↗

Optimal Online and Offline Algorithms for Contextual MNL with Applications to Assortment and Pricing

Selecting which products to display and at what prices is a central decision in retail and e-commerce operations. In many applications, these two choices must be made jointly under limited display capacity and uncertain customer demand. In this paper, we study the joint assortment and pricing problem under a price-based contextual multinomial logit model, where customer preferences depend on both product features and selling prices. Our analysis begins with the construction of a new confidence region for demand estimation under price-dependent features. Building on this result, we develop a pessimistic offline algorithm and SupCB-type online algorithms for joint assortment and pricing optimization. In the offline setting, we establish a suboptimality guarantee governed by local information around the optimal assortment-price pair, rather than by exact coverage of the optimal action. In the online setting, our SupCB-type algorithm improves the best previously known regret bound to $\widetilde{O}(W\sqrt{dT\log N}/L_0)$, and we also provide a computationally simpler Thompson-sampling alternative. When specialized to the assortment-only or pricing-only setting, our bounds recover the near-minimax-optimal rates established in those respective domains, thereby bridging the gap between the mature study on assortment optimization or dynamic pricing and the limited literature on their joint optimization.

math.OC↗

Tightness Analysis of First Passage Times of $d$-Dimensional Branching Random Walk

Given a discrete-time non-lattice supercritical branching random walk in $\mathbb{R}^d$, we investigate its first passage time to a shifted unit ball of a distance $x$ from the origin, conditioned upon survival. We provide precise asymptotics up to $O(1)$ (tightness) for the first passage time as a function of $x$ as $x\to\infty$, thus resolving a conjecture in Blanchet--Cai--Mohanty--Zhang (2024). Our proof builds on the previous analysis of Blanchet--Cai--Mohanty--Zhang (2024) and employs a careful multi-scale analysis on the genealogy of particles within a distance of $\asymp \log x$ near extrema of a one-dimensional branching random walk, where the cluster structure plays a crucial role.

math.PR↗

Viral Quasispecies Evolution as a Branching Random Walk on the Hypercube

We study a continuous-time nearest-neighbor branching random walk on the $d$-dimensional $b$-ary hypercube $\{0,1,\dots,b-1\}^d$ as a model for viral quasispecies evolution under mutation and replication. Motivated by mutagenic antiviral treatments and evolutionary-safety questions, we analyze the first passage time to a fixed target genotype at Hamming distance $m$, corresponding to the first appearance of a prescribed collection of mutations. We derive sharp asymptotics for these first passage times, uniformly for $m\le d/L$ as $d\to\infty$ (where $L>0$ is a large constant), and identify a phase transition in first-passage scaling at $ρ=e$, where $ρ$ denotes the effective growth parameter. In the slow-branching regime $ρ\in(1,e)$ relevant to mutagenic treatment scenarios, the first passage time is asymptotically affine in the genome length $d$ and the target distance $m$. In particular, when replication is fixed and mutation exceeds branching, increasing the mutation rate can delay the first appearance of a prescribed genotype by order $d$, providing a quantitative perspective on evolutionary safety.

math.PR↗

Statistical Inference in Causal Partial Identification with Smooth Densities

Many causal quantities are only partially identifiable due to the inherent missingness of potential outcomes, and the associated partial identification (PI) sets can be obtained by solving an optimal transport (OT) problem. Covariates often provide additional information about the potential outcomes and thus yield tighter PI sets, which can be obtained via conditional optimal transport (COT). However, COT-based PI set estimators are susceptible to the curse of dimensionality in the covariates and outcomes, which precludes the asymptotic normality and hinders statistical inference. In this paper, we exploit smoothness in the marginal densities of covariates and potential outcomes and develop a wavelet-based primal method for COT with multivariate outcomes and covariates. Moreover, for quadratic cost functions, we establish a stability result for COT and prove asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. This characterization of the asymptotic distribution enables valid statistical inference for the partial identification set. Empirically, we validate the estimation and inference performance of our approach through numerical experiments in comparison with existing benchmarks.

math.ST↗

Causal Partial Identification via Conditional Optimal Transport

We study the estimation of causal estimand involving the joint distribution of treatment and control outcomes for a single unit. In typical causal inference settings, it is impossible to observe both outcomes simultaneously, which places our estimation within the domain of partial identification (PI). Pre-treatment covariates can substantially reduce estimation uncertainty by shrinking the partially identified set. Recent work has shown that covariate-assisted PI sets can be characterized through conditional optimal transport (COT) problems. However, finite-sample estimation of COT poses significant challenges, primarily because the COT functional is discontinuous under the weak topology, rendering the direct plug-in estimator inconsistent. To address this issue, existing literature relies on relaxations or indirect methods involving the estimation of non-parametric nuisance statistics. In this work, we demonstrate the continuity of the COT functional under a stronger topology induced by the adapted Wasserstein distance. Leveraging this result, we propose a direct, consistent, non-parametric estimator for COT value that avoids nuisance parameter estimation. We derive the convergence rate for our estimator and validate its effectiveness through comprehensive simulations, demonstrating its improved performance compared to existing approaches.

stat.ME↗

Score-based Metropolis-Hastings for Fractional Langevin Algorithms

Sampling from heavy-tailed and multimodal distributions is challenging when neither the target density nor the proposal density can be evaluated, as in $α$-stable Lévy-driven fractional Langevin algorithms. While the target distribution can be estimated from data via score-based or energy-based models, the $α$-stable proposal density and its score are generally unavailable, rendering classical density-based Metropolis--Hastings (MH) corrections impractical. Consequently, existing fractional Langevin methods operate in an unadjusted regime and can exhibit substantial finite-time errors and poor empirical control of tail behavior. We introduce the Metropolis-Adjusted Fractional Langevin Algorithm (MAFLA), an MH-inspired, fully score-based correction mechanism. MAFLA employs designed proxies for fractional proposal score gradients under isotropic symmetric $α$-stable noise and learns an acceptance function via Score Balance Matching. We empirically illustrate the strong performance of MAFLA on a series of tasks including combinatorial optimization problems where the method significantly improves finite time sampling accuracy over unadjusted fractional Langevin dynamics.

stat.ML↗

FutureX-Pro: Extending Future Prediction to High-Value Vertical Domains

Building upon FutureX, which established a live benchmark for general-purpose future prediction, this report introduces FutureX-Pro, including FutureX-Finance, FutureX-Retail, FutureX-PublicHealth, FutureX-NaturalDisaster, and FutureX-Search. These together form a specialized framework extending agentic future prediction to high-value vertical domains. While generalist agents demonstrate proficiency in open-domain search, their reliability in capital-intensive and safety-critical sectors remains under-explored. FutureX-Pro targets four economically and socially pivotal verticals: Finance, Retail, Public Health, and Natural Disaster. We benchmark agentic Large Language Models (LLMs) on entry-level yet foundational prediction tasks -- ranging from forecasting market indicators and supply chain demands to tracking epidemic trends and natural disasters. By adapting the contamination-free, live-evaluation pipeline of FutureX, we assess whether current State-of-the-Art (SOTA) agentic LLMs possess the domain grounding necessary for industrial deployment. Our findings reveal the performance gap between generalist reasoning and the precision required for high-value vertical applications.

cs.AI↗

On the First Passage Times of Branching Random Walks in $\mathbb R^d$

We study the first passage times of discrete-time branching random walks in ${\mathbb R}^d$ where $d\geq 1$. Here, the genealogy of the particles follows a supercritical Galton-Watson process. We provide asymptotics of the first passage times to a ball of radius one with a distance $x$ from the origin, conditioned upon survival. We provide explicitly the linear dominating term and the logarithmic correction term as a function of $x$. The asymptotics are precise up to an order of $o_{\mathbb P}(\log x)$ for general jump distributions and up to $O_{\mathbb P}(\log\log x)$ for spherically symmetric jumps. A crucial ingredient of both results is the tightness of first passage times. We also discuss an extension of the first passage time analysis to a modified branching random walk model that has been proven to successfully capture shortest path statistics in polymer networks.

math.PR↗

Unifying Distributionally Robust Optimization via Optimal Transport Theory

In recent years, two prominent paradigms have shaped distributionally robust optimization (DRO), modeling distributional ambiguity through $ϕ$-divergences and Wasserstein distances, respectively. While the former focuses on ambiguity in likelihood ratios, the latter emphasizes ambiguity in outcomes and uses a transportation cost function to capture geometric structure in the outcome space. This paper proposes a unified framework that bridges these approaches by leveraging optimal transport (OT) with conditional moment constraints. Our formulation enables adversarial distributions to jointly perturb likelihood ratios and outcomes, yielding a generalized OT coupling between the nominal and perturbed distributions. We further establish key duality results and develop tractable reformulations that highlight the practical power of our unified approach.

math.OC↗

Multi-agent learning under uncertainty: Recurrence vs. concentration

In this paper, we examine the convergence landscape of multi-agent learning under uncertainty. Specifically, we analyze two stochastic models of regularized learning in continuous games -- one in continuous and one in discrete time with the aim of characterizing the long-run behavior of the induced sequence of play. In stark contrast to deterministic, full-information models of learning (or models with a vanishing learning rate), we show that the resulting dynamics do not converge in general. In lieu of this, we ask instead which actions are played more often in the long run, and by how much. We show that, in strongly monotone games, the dynamics of regularized learning may wander away from equilibrium infinitely often, but they always return to its vicinity in finite time (which we estimate), and their long-run distribution is sharply concentrated around a neighborhood thereof. We quantify the degree of this concentration, and we show that these favorable properties may all break down if the underlying game is not strongly monotone -- underscoring in this way the limits of regularized learning in the presence of persistent randomness and uncertainty.

cs.GT↗

Robust equilibria in continuous games: From strategic to dynamic robustness

In this paper, we examine the robustness of Nash equilibria in continuous games, under both strategic and dynamic uncertainty. Starting with the former, we introduce the notion of a robust equilibrium as those equilibria that remain invariant to small -- but otherwise arbitrary -- perturbations to the game's payoff structure, and we provide a crisp geometric characterization thereof. Subsequently, we turn to the question of dynamic robustness, and we examine which equilibria may arise as stable limit points of the dynamics of "follow the regularized leader" (FTRL) in the presence of randomness and uncertainty. Despite their very distinct origins, we establish a structural correspondence between these two notions of robustness: strategic robustness implies dynamic robustness, and, conversely, the requirement of strategic robustness cannot be relaxed if dynamic robustness is to be maintained. Finally, we examine the rate of convergence to robust equilibria as a function of the underlying regularizer, and we show that entropically regularized learning converges at a geometric rate in games with affinely constrained action spaces.

cs.GT↗

Learning Optimal Distributionally Robust Stochastic Control in Continuous State Spaces

We study data-driven learning of robust stochastic control for infinite-horizon systems with potentially continuous state and action spaces. In many managerial settings--supply chains, finance, manufacturing, services, and dynamic games--the state-transition mechanism is determined by system design, while available data capture the distributional properties of the stochastic inputs from the environment. For modeling and computational tractability, a decision maker often adopts a Markov control model with i.i.d. environment inputs, which can render learned policies fragile to internal dependence or external perturbations. We introduce a distributionally robust stochastic control paradigm that promotes policy reliability by introducing adaptive adversarial perturbations to the environment input, while preserving the modeling, statistical, and computational tractability of the Markovian formulation. From a modeling perspective, we examine two adversary models--current-action-aware and current-action-unaware--leading to distinct dynamic behaviors and robust optimal policies. From a statistical learning perspective, we characterize optimal finite-sample minimax rates for uniform learning of the robust value function across a continuum of states under ambiguity sets defined by the $f_k$-divergence and Wasserstein distance. To efficiently compute the optimal robust policies, we further propose algorithms inspired by deep reinforcement learning methodologies. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the framework to real managerial problems.

stat.ML↗

Optimization under rare events: scaling laws for linear chance-constrained programs

We consider a class of chance-constrained programs in which profit needs to be maximized while enforcing that a given adverse event remains rare. Using techniques from large deviations and extreme value theory, we show how the optimal value scales as the prescribed bound on the violation probability becomes small and how convex programs emerge in the limit. We use our results to analyze the performance of existing popular approaches in the rare-event regime. We show that the popular CVaR and sample approximations have optimality properties under light-tailed assumptions on the randomness, while they behave sub-optimal in a heavy-tailed setting. Our results are derived using large deviations theory, extreme value theory, process techniques, and random set theory.

math.OC↗

Quantum speedup of non-linear Monte Carlo problems

The mean of a random variable can be understood as a linear functional on the space of probability distributions. Quantum computing is known to provide a quadratic speedup over classical Monte Carlo methods for mean estimation. In this paper, we investigate whether a similar quadratic speedup is achievable for estimating non-linear functionals of probability distributions. We propose a quantum-inside-quantum Monte Carlo algorithm that achieves such a speedup for a broad class of non-linear estimation problems, including nested conditional expectations and stochastic optimization. Our algorithm improves upon the direct application of the quantum multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm introduced by An et al. (2021). The existing lower bound indicates that our algorithm is optimal up polylogarithmic factors. A key innovation of our approach is a new sequence of multilevel Monte Carlo approximations specifically designed for quantum computing, which is central to the algorithm's improved performance.

quant-ph↗

Empirical martingale projections via the adapted Wasserstein distance

Given a collection of multidimensional pairs $\{(X_i,Y_i):1 \leq i\leq n\}$, we study the problem of projecting the associated suitably smoothed empirical measure onto the space of martingale couplings (i.e. distributions satisfying $\mathbb{E}[Y|X]=X$) using the adapted Wasserstein distance. We call the resulting distance the smoothed empirical martingale projection distance (SE-MPD), for which we obtain an explicit characterization. We also show that the space of martingale couplings remains invariant under the smoothing operation. We study the asymptotic limit of the SE-MPD, which converges at a parametric rate as the sample size increases if the pairs are either i.i.d. or satisfy appropriate mixing assumptions. Additional finite-sample results are also investigated. Using these results, we introduce a novel consistent martingale coupling hypothesis test, which we apply to test the existence of arbitrage opportunities in recently introduced neural network-based generative models for asset pricing calibration.

math.PR↗