arXiv subjects

Jose R. Zubizarreta

Publications and source records attributed to Jose R. Zubizarreta.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

An Anatomy of Event Studies: Hypothetical Experiments, Exact Decomposition, and Weighting Diagnostics

In recent decades, event studies have become widely used in health and social research to estimate the dynamic effects of staggered interventions. In this paper, we develop a framework grounded in experimental design principles for observational studies that encompasses common event study estimators and makes explicit how they borrow information across units and time periods. We consider two routes to identification, unconfoundedness in treatment initiation and parallel trends with limited anticipation, and construct weighted contrasts from outcome levels under the first and within-unit differences under the second. We propose a robust weighting estimator that draws on progressively larger sets of observations as stronger assumptions on treatment assignment and potential outcomes are imposed. We derive exact finite-sample decompositions of dynamic two-way fixed effects and interaction-weighted estimators, and of doubly robust estimators, into weighted contrasts of within-unit outcome differences, revealing the hypothetical experiment each approximates. These decompositions show which unit-period observations enter each contrast and how they are weighted, clarifying and supplementing the notion of forbidden comparisons. The implied weights yield diagnostics for covariate balance, sign reversal, effective sample size, information shares across observation groups, and each observation's influence on the estimate. We illustrate these diagnostics in a study of the effects of Castle Doctrine laws on homicide rates.

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arXiv2025

Understanding Spatial Regression Models from a Weighting Perspective in an Observational Study of Superfund Remediation

A key challenge in environmental health research is unmeasured spatial confounding, driven by unobserved spatially structured variables that influence both treatment and outcome. A common approach is to fit a spatial regression that models the outcome as a linear function of treatment and covariates, with a spatially structured error term to account for unmeasured spatial confounding. However, it remains unclear to what extent spatial regression actually accounts for such forms of confounding in finite samples, and whether this regression adjustment can be reformulated from a design-based perspective. Motivated by an observational study on the effect of Superfund site remediation on birth outcomes, we present a weighting framework for causal inference that unifies three canonical classes of spatial regression models$\unicode{x2013}$random effects, conditional autoregressive, and Gaussian process models$\unicode{x2013}$and reveals how they implicitly construct causal contrasts across space. Specifically, we show that: (i) the spatial error term induces approximate balance on a latent set of covariates and therefore adjusts for a specific form of unmeasured confounding; and (ii) the covariance structure of the spatial error can be equivalently represented as regressors in a linear model. Building on these insights, we introduce a new estimator that jointly addresses multiple forms of unmeasured spatial confounding and develop visual diagnostics. Using our new estimator, we find evidence of a small but beneficial effect of remediation on the percentage of small vulnerable newborns.

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arXiv2025

Targeted Quality Measurement of Health Care Providers

Assessing the quality of cancer care administered by US health providers poses numerous challenges due to meaningful heterogeneity in patient populations. Patients undergoing oncology treatment exhibit substantial variation in disease presentation among other crucial characteristics. In this paper, we present a framework for institutional quality measurement that addresses this patient heterogeneity. Our framework follows recent advancements in health outcomes research, conceptualizing quality measurement as a causal inference problem. This approach enables us to use flexible covariate profiles to target specific patient populations of interest. We use different clinically relevant covariate profiles and evaluate methods for case-mix adjustments. These adjustments integrate weighting and regression modeling approaches in a progressive manner in order to reduce model extrapolation and allow for provider effect modification. We evaluate these methods in an extensive simulation study, comparing their performance in terms of point estimates and estimated rankings. We highlight the practical utility of weighting methods that can generate stable weights when covariate overlap is limited and alert investigators when case-mix adjustments are infeasible without some form of extrapolation that goes beyond the support of the observed data. In our study of cancer-care outcomes, we assess the performance of oncology practices for different profiles that correspond to important types of patients who may receive cancer care. We describe how the methods examined may be particularly important for high-stakes quality measurement, such as public reporting or performance-based payments. These methods have the potential to help inform individual patient health care decisions and contribute to progress toward more personalized quality measurement.

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arXiv2024

Effect Aliasing in Observational Studies

In experimental design, aliasing of effects occurs in fractional factorial experiments, where certain low order factorial effects are indistinguishable from certain high order interactions: low order contrasts may be orthogonal to one another, while their higher order interactions are aliased and not identified. In observational studies, aliasing occurs when certain combinations of covariates -- e.g., time period and various eligibility criteria for treatment -- perfectly predict the treatment that an individual will receive, so a covariate combination is aliased with a particular treatment. In this situation, when a contrast among several groups is used to estimate a treatment effect, collections of individuals defined by contrast weights may be balanced with respect to summaries of low-order interactions between covariates and treatments, but necessarily not balanced with respect to summaries of high-order interactions between covariates and treatments. We develop a theory of aliasing in observational studies, illustrate that theory in an observational study whose aliasing is more robust than conventional difference-in-differences, and develop a new form of matching to construct balanced confounded factorial designs from observational data.

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arXiv2024

Design-based inference for generalized network experiments with stochastic interventions

A growing number of researchers are conducting randomized experiments to analyze causal relationships in network settings where units influence one another. A dominant methodology for analyzing these experiments is design-based, leveraging random treatment assignments as the basis for inference. In this paper, we generalize this design-based approach to accommodate complex experiments with a variety of causal estimands and different target populations. An important special case of such generalized network experiments is a bipartite network experiment, in which treatment is randomized among one set of units, and outcomes are measured on a separate set of units. We propose a broad class of causal estimands based on stochastic interventions for generalized network experiments. Using a design-based approach, we show how to estimate these causal quantities without bias and develop conservative variance estimators. We apply our methodology to a randomized experiment in education where participation in an anti-conflict promotion program is randomized among selected students. Our analysis estimates the causal effects of treating each student or their friends among different target populations in the network. We find that the program improves the overall conflict awareness among students but does not significantly reduce the total number of such conflicts.

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arXiv2024

Risk Set Matched Difference-in-Differences for the Analysis of Effect Modification in an Observational Study on the Impact of Gun Violence on Health Outcomes

Gun violence is a major source of injury and death in the United States. However, relatively little is known about the effects of firearm injuries on survivors and their family members and how these effects vary across subpopulations. To study these questions and, more generally, to address a gap in the causal inference literature, we present a framework for the study of effect modification or heterogeneous treatment effects in difference-in-differences designs. We implement a new matching technique, which combines profile matching and risk set matching, to (i) preserve the time alignment of covariates, exposure, and outcomes, avoiding pitfalls of other common approaches for difference-in-differences, and (ii) explicitly control biases due to imbalances in observed covariates in subgroups discovered from the data. Our case study shows significant and persistent effects of nonfatal firearm injuries on several health outcomes for those injured and on the mental health of their family members. Sensitivity analyses reveal that these results are moderately robust to unmeasured confounding bias. Finally, while the effects for those injured vary largely by the severity of the injury and its documented intent, for families, effects are strongest for those whose relative's injury is documented as resulting from an assault, self-harm, or law enforcement intervention.

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arXiv2024

lmw: Linear Model Weights for Causal Inference

The linear regression model is widely used in the biomedical and social sciences as well as in policy and business research to adjust for covariates and estimate the average effects of treatments. Behind every causal inference endeavor there is a hypothetical randomized experiment. However, in routine regression analyses in observational studies, it is unclear how well the adjustments made by regression approximate key features of randomized experiments, such as covariate balance, study representativeness, sample boundedness, and unweighted sampling. In this paper, we provide software to empirically address this question. We introduce the lmw package for R to compute the implied linear model weights and perform diagnostics for their evaluation. The weights are obtained as part of the design stage of the study; that is, without using outcome information. The implementation is general and applicable, for instance, in settings with instrumental variables and multi-valued treatments; in essence, in any situation where the linear model is the vehicle for adjustment and estimation of average treatment effects with discrete-valued interventions.

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arXiv2024

Notes on Causation, Comparison, and Regression

Comparison and contrast are the basic means to unveil causation and learn which treatments work. To build good comparison groups, randomized experimentation is key, yet often infeasible. In such non-experimental settings, we illustrate and discuss diagnostics to assess how well the common linear regression approach to causal inference approximates desirable features of randomized experiments, such as covariate balance, study representativeness, interpolated estimation, and unweighted analyses. We also discuss alternative regression modeling, weighting, and matching approaches and argue they should be given strong consideration in empirical work.

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arXiv2023

Balanced and Robust Randomized Treatment Assignments: The Finite Selection Model for the Health Insurance Experiment and Beyond

The Finite Selection Model (FSM) was developed by Carl Morris in the 1970s for the design of the RAND Health Insurance Experiment (HIE) (Morris 1979, Newhouse et al. 1993), one of the largest and most comprehensive social science experiments conducted in the U.S. The idea behind the FSM is that each treatment group takes its turns selecting units in a fair and random order to optimize a common assignment criterion. At each of its turns, a treatment group selects the available unit that maximally improves the combined quality of its resulting group of units in terms of the criterion. In the HIE and beyond, we revisit, formalize, and extend the FSM as a general tool for experimental design. Leveraging the idea of D-optimality, we propose and analyze a new selection criterion in the FSM. The FSM using the D-optimal selection function has no tuning parameters, is affine invariant, and when appropriate, retrieves several classical designs such as randomized block and matched-pair designs. For multi-arm experiments, we propose algorithms to generate a fair and random selection order of treatments. We demonstrate FSM's performance in a case study based on the HIE and in ten randomized studies from the health and social sciences. On average, the FSM achieves 68% better covariate balance than complete randomization and 56% better covariate balance than rerandomization in a typical study. We recommend the FSM be considered in experimental design for its conceptual simplicity, efficiency, and robustness.

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arXiv2023

One-Step weighting to generalize and transport treatment effect estimates to a target population

The problem of generalization and transportation of treatment effect estimates from a study sample to a target population is central to empirical research and statistical methodology. In both randomized experiments and observational studies, weighting methods are often used with this objective. Traditional methods construct the weights by separately modeling the treatment assignment and study selection probabilities and then multiplying functions (e.g., inverses) of their estimates. In this work, we provide a justification and an implementation for weighting in a single step. We show a formal connection between this one-step method and inverse probability and inverse odds weighting. We demonstrate that the resulting estimator for the target average treatment effect is consistent, asymptotically Normal, multiply robust, and semiparametrically efficient. We evaluate the performance of the one-step estimator in a simulation study. We illustrate its use in a case study on the effects of physician racial diversity on preventive healthcare utilization among Black men in California. We provide R code implementing the methodology.

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arXiv2023

Privacy-Preserving, Communication-Efficient, and Target-Flexible Hospital Quality Measurement

Integrating information from multiple data sources can enable more precise, timely, and generalizable decisions. However, it is challenging to make valid causal inferences using observational data from multiple data sources. For example, in healthcare, learning from electronic health records contained in different hospitals is desirable but difficult due to heterogeneity in patient case mix, differences in treatment guidelines, and data privacy regulations that preclude individual patient data from being pooled. Motivated to overcome these issues, we develop a federated causal inference framework. We devise a doubly robust estimator of the mean potential outcome in a target population and show that it is consistent even when some models are misspecified. To enable real-world use, our proposed algorithm is privacy-preserving (requiring only summary statistics to be shared between hospitals) and communication-efficient (requiring only one round of communication between hospitals). We implement our causal estimation and inference procedure to investigate the quality of hospital care provided by a diverse set of 51 candidate Cardiac Centers of Excellence, as measured by 30-day mortality and length of stay for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients. We find that our proposed federated global estimator improves the precision of treatment effect estimates by 59% to 91% compared to using data from the target hospital alone. This precision gain results in qualitatively different conclusions about the estimated effect of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) compared to medical management (MM) in 63% (32 of 51) of hospitals. We find that hospitals rarely excel in both PCI and MM, which highlights the importance of assessing performance on specific treatment regimens.

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arXiv2022

On the implied weights of linear regression for causal inference

A basic principle in the design of observational studies is to approximate the randomized experiment that would have been conducted under controlled circumstances. Now, linear regression models are commonly used to analyze observational data and estimate causal effects. How do linear regression adjustments in observational studies emulate key features of randomized experiments, such as covariate balance, self-weighted sampling, and study representativeness? In this paper, we provide answers to this and related questions by analyzing the implied (individual-level data) weights of linear regression methods. We derive new closed-form expressions of the weights and examine their properties in both finite and asymptotic regimes. We show that the implied weights of general regression problems can be equivalently obtained by solving a convex optimization problem. Among others, we study doubly and multiply robust properties of regression estimators from the perspective of their implied weights. This equivalence allows us to bridge ideas from the regression modeling and causal inference literatures. As a result, we propose novel regression diagnostics for causal inference that are part of the design stage of an observational study. As special cases, we analyze the implied weights in common settings such as multi-valued treatments and regression adjustment after matching. We implement the weights and diagnostics in the new lmw package for R.

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arXiv2022

Profile Matching for the Generalization and Personalization of Causal Inferences

We introduce profile matching, a multivariate matching method for randomized experiments and observational studies that finds the largest possible unweighted samples across multiple treatment groups that are balanced relative to a covariate profile. This covariate profile can represent a specific population or a target individual, facilitating the generalization and personalization of causal inferences. For generalization, because the profile often amounts to summary statistics for a target population, profile matching does not always require accessing individual-level data, which may be unavailable for confidentiality reasons. For personalization, the profile comprises the characteristics of a single individual. Profile matching achieves covariate balance by construction, but unlike existing approaches to matching, it does not require specifying a matching ratio, as this is implicitly optimized for the data. The method can also be used for the selection of units for study follow-up, and it readily applies to multi-valued treatments with many treatment categories. We evaluate the performance of profile matching in a simulation study of the generalization of a randomized trial to a target population. We further illustrate this method in an exploratory observational study of the relationship between opioid use and mental health outcomes. We analyze these relationships for three covariate profiles representing: (i) sexual minorities, (ii) the Appalachian United States, and (iii) the characteristics of a hypothetical vulnerable patient. The method can be implemented via the new function profmatch in the designmatch package for R, for which we provide a step-by-step tutorial.

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arXiv2022

Complex Discontinuity Designs Using Covariates: Impact of School Grade Retention on Later Life Outcomes in Chile

Regression discontinuity designs are extensively used for causal inference in observational studies. However, they are usually confined to settings with simple treatment rules, determined by a single running variable, with a single cutoff. Motivated by the problem of estimating the impact of grade retention on educational and juvenile crime outcomes in Chile, we propose a framework and methods for complex discontinuity designs that encompasses multiple treatment rules. In this framework, the observed covariates play a central role for identification, estimation, and generalization of causal effects. Identification is non-parametric and relies on a local strong ignorability assumption. Estimation proceeds as in any observational study under strong ignorability, yet in a neighborhood of the cutoffs of the running variables. We discuss estimation approaches based on matching and weighting, including complementary regression modeling adjustments. We present assumptions for generalization; that is, for identification and estimation of average treatment effects for target populations. We also describe two approaches to select the neighborhood for analysis. We find that grade retention in Chile has a negative impact on future grade retention, but is not associated with dropping out of school or committing a juvenile crime.

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arXiv2022

Using Cardinality Matching to Design Balanced and Representative Samples for Observational Studies

Cardinality matching is a computational method for finding the largest possible number of matched pairs of exposed and unexposed individuals from an observational dataset, with specified patterns of baseline characteristics that represent a target population for analysis. This article explains the process of cardinality matching and how it simultaneously addresses the concerns of balance, sample size, and representativeness of matched samples in observational studies.

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arXiv2021

Randomized and Balanced Allocation of Units into Treatment Groups Using the Finite Selection Model for R

The original Finite Selection Model (FSM) was developed in the 1970s to enhance the design of the RAND Health Insurance Experiment (HIE; Newhouse et al. 1993). At the time of its development by Carl Morris (Morris 1979), there were fundamental computational limitations to make the method widely available for practitioners. Today, as randomized experiments increasingly become more common, there is a need for implementing experimental designs that are randomized, balanced, robust, and easily applicable to several treatment groups. To help address this problem, we revisit the original FSM under the potential outcome framework for causal inference and provide its first readily available software implementation. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the FSM and a step-by-step guide for its use in R.

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arXiv2021

Minimax Linear Estimation of the Retargeted Mean

Evaluating treatments received by one population for application to a different target population of scientific interest is a central problem in causal inference from observational studies. We study the minimax linear estimator of the treatment-specific mean outcome on a target population and provide a theoretical basis for inference based on it. In particular, we provide a justification for the common practice of ignoring bias when building confidence intervals with these linear estimators. Focusing on the case that the class of the unknown outcome function is the unit ball of a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we show that the resulting linear estimator is asymptotically optimal under conditions only marginally stronger than those used with augmented estimators. We establish bounds attesting to the estimator's good finite sample properties. In an extensive simulation study, we observe promising performance of the estimator throughout a wide range of sample sizes, noise levels, and levels of overlap between the covariate distributions of the treated and target populations.

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arXiv2019

Building Representative Matched Samples with Multi-valued Treatments in Large Observational Studies

In this paper, we present a new way of matching in observational studies that overcomes three limitations of existing matching approaches. First, it directly balances covariates with multi-valued treatments without requiring the generalized propensity score. Second, it builds self-weighted matched samples that are representative of a target population by design. Third, it can handle large data sets, with hundreds of thousands of observations, in a couple of minutes. The key insights of this new approach to matching are balancing the treatment groups relative to a target population and positing a linear-sized mixed integer formulation of the matching problem. We formally show that this formulation is more effective than alternative quadratic-sized formulations, as its reduction in size does not affect its strength from the standpoint of its linear programming relaxation. We also show that this formulation can be used for matching with distributional covariate balance in polynomial time under certain assumptions on the covariates and that it can handle large data sets in practice even when the assumptions are not satisfied. This algorithmic characterization is key to handle large data sets. We illustrate this new approach to matching in both a simulation study and an observational study of the impact of an earthquake on educational attainment. After matching, the results can be visualized with simple and transparent graphical displays: while increasing levels of exposure to the earthquake have a negative impact on school attendance, there is no effect on college admission test scores.

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