World Model-Guided Reinforcement Learning via Counterfactual User Engagement Simulation
Reinforcement learning for user-centric agents is limited by the cost, latency, and risk of collecting online feedback, as well as by the lack of counterfactual comparisons under the same user state. In this paper, we propose World Model-Guided Reinforcement Learning via counterfactual user engagement simulation (WMG-RL), a framework in which a frozen user simulator provides reward supervision before real user exposure. Motivated by language world models, we instantiate the simulator as a User Engagement World Model (UEWM), which treats a recommended item as the agent action and the user's heterogeneous feedback as the environment observation. Rather than learning one fixed environment transition, UEWM learns to infer user-specific dynamics from engagement history and apply them to candidate items. In WMG-RL, a downstream policy proposes multiple candidate items for the same history; UEWM predicts the corresponding engagement feedback in parallel; and the simulated feedback is converted into dense rewards for policy optimization. Experiments show that UEWM provides reliable and transferable reward signals across domains, and that WMG-RL enables a compact 1.7B student policy to match or surpass much larger LLMs on downstream recommendation tasks.