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Lingfei Qian

Publications and source records attributed to Lingfei Qian.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

FINCOSMOS: An Open-World Evaluation Paradigm for Agents in Finance

Language agents increasingly work for users on the open Web, and finance is where trusting them is hardest. The data must come from the Web, the strategy lives in the user's head, and correctness depends on time, so an agent can fail silently: a strategy the user never asked for, unverified data, or a backtest that uses the future yields a report as convincing as a correct one. Existing benchmarks close the world somewhere, fixing the task, the data, or the timeline, and thereby remove these failures instead of measuring them. We introduce FINCOSMOS, an open-world evaluation paradigm for agents doing financial work. A simulated user holds a hidden strategy sampled from a compositional grammar and reveals it only when asked. The agent receives no data, so it must acquire data from the Web, build its own backtest under a data cutoff, and deliver verifiable results. Grading needs no reference answer. Programs verify point-in-time correctness and recompute every reported metric, the delivered strategy is checked against the hidden specification, and a run is accepted only when the user is satisfied and none of 15 veto checks fails. Across four coding agents and a model without tools in 150 sessions, no session is accepted: every session that the simulated user signed off fails a program check, and agents raise only 54--64\% of the details they were not told. Human experts attribute 88.33\% of failures to the agents. With FINCOSMOS feedback, an agent with persistent memory learned all ten tasks.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

LLMs Don't Know What They Know: Benchmarking Temporal Self-Knowledge for Financial Backtesting

Financial backtests of large language models (LLMs) are meaningful only if the model did not already know the outcomes it is asked to predict. Practitioners guard against this by trusting a vendor's stated knowledge cutoff, by asking the model what it knows, or by instructing it to answer as of a past date. To verify whether any of these safeguards can be trusted, we introduce FinDendro, a benchmark of 2,226 dated U.S. facts from 1999 to 2026, covering monthly macroeconomic series, month-end stock prices and Federal Reserve decisions. Each fact yields four prompts: a value question, Recall and Predict questions that pair each candidate value with a claim of knowing or guessing without a declared date, and a Predict question with a historical declared date. Controls for persistence and dominant outcomes keep chance accuracy near 0.27. Results show that for most frontier models, self-reports understate knowledge. GPT-5 answers 76% of controlled facts correctly but claims to know 38%, and answers 61% of the facts it says it does not know. Knowledge claims can persist beyond the measured knowledge boundary, by up to seven quarters, and a declared date removes most of the claims of prior knowledge while leaving accuracy unchanged. Backtests inside a model's training window therefore cannot be certified leak-free by self-report, instruction or stated cutoff. These findings motivate behavioral measurement of temporal knowledge boundaries, and FinDendro provides a benchmark and procedure for selecting backtest periods based on demonstrated factual knowledge.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Foundation Models to Unlock Real-World Evidence from Nationwide Medical Claims

Real-world data increasingly inform regulatory and clinical decisions. Administrative claims, among their major sources, continuously track care and its cost across providers throughout enrollment, yet remain largely unexplored for healthcare foundation models. Here we present ReClaim, a family of generative foundation models built on 43.8 billion claims records from more than 200 million enrollees in the MarketScan Research Databases. ReClaim learns diagnoses, procedures, medications and expenditure jointly through pre-training from scratch, then specializes for downstream prediction tasks through post-training, with a training cutoff at the end of 2022. In predicting more than 1,000 diseases, ReClaim achieved a mean ROC-AUC of 0.769, outperforming disease-specific gradient-boosted models (0.663) and a transformer-based baseline (0.694), and retained this advantage when generalizing to two independent cross-domain electronic health record datasets. ReClaim also outperformed gradient-boosted models in forecasting next-year expenditure and in identifying high-need, high-cost enrollees. ReClaim maintained its advantage in disease prediction and expenditure forecasting on post-cutoff data (2023-2024). Beyond prediction, ReClaim representations used as covariates resulted in improved effect estimates compared with algorithm-derived covariates, when benchmarked against results expected from randomized controlled trials. Together, these results establish nationwide insurance claims as a scalable substrate for healthcare foundation models supporting disease prediction, expenditure forecasting and confounding adjustment in real-world evidence studies. Code is available at https://github.com/BIDS-Xu-Lab/ReClaim.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Recognition Is Not Grounding: Benchmarking Multilingual Financial Evidence Extraction

Comparing financial disclosures across languages requires identifying shared accounting concepts and recovering all numerical facts that express them. Existing benchmarks evaluate aspects of these capabilities, but provide limited insight into whether both succeed on the same multilingual evidence. In particular, it remains unclear whether language models can recognize these concepts across languages and exhaustively recover their corresponding numerical evidence from the same contexts. We introduce MULTIFINGROUND, a benchmark designed to investigate this recognition-grounding gap in multilingual financial reports. Constructed from FY2025 disclosures of 90 issuers in English, French, and Greek, MULTIFINGROUND aligns independently authored reports through a shared accounting taxonomy and provides traceable fact-level annotations. The benchmark evaluates financial fact identification, concept recognition, exhaustive fact selection, and concept discrimination without candidate labels. Across 15 evaluated models, eight API and open-weight reference models achieve 97.3-99.4% concept recognition accuracy, yet miss at least one target fact in 26.6-41.9% of correctly recognized groups. Further analyses reveal substantial variation in concept discrimination and limited gains from the evaluated finance-specialized models. Our findings demonstrate that strong concept recognition can coexist with incomplete evidence recovery, highlighting the importance of evaluating semantic recognition and evidence completeness together.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Herculean: An Agentic Benchmark for Financial Intelligence

As AI agents advance, the central question is no longer whether they can solve isolated financial tasks, but whether their capabilities generalize across complete professional workflows. Existing benchmarks cannot answer this question because they evaluate either static competencies or agents within a single interaction structure. We introduce Herculean, a benchmark of end-to-end agentic financial intelligence that crosses agent architecture, backbone model, and four structurally distinct workflows: Trading, Hedging, Market Insights, and Auditing. Each workflow is implemented as an MCP skill that preserves its native state, actions, constraints, and outcome criteria, allowing intact agent systems to be evaluated under matched external conditions. Across 30 architecture--backbone configurations, we find that agent capability is not globally ordered. Workflow rankings are weakly aligned, changing the architecture frequently reverses performance under the same backbone, and each architecture concentrates failure in different forms of workflow control. These results establish that agent performance is an interaction between architecture and workflow demand, rather than an intrinsic property of the underlying model. Consequently, success on a single financial workflow provides little evidence of dependable, general financial intelligence.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

MOIRA: Policy Memory and Belief Revision for Language-Model Agents in Non-Stationary Pair Trading

Many sequential decision-making problems exhibit hierarchical structure, where high-level semantic choices constrain downstream actions and feedback is delayed and ambiguous. Learning in such settings is challenging due to credit assignment: performance degradation may arise from flawed abstractions, suboptimal execution, or their interaction. We study this challenge through pair trading, a domain that naturally combines long-horizon semantic reasoning for asset pair selection with short-horizon execution under partial observability. We formulate pair trading as a hierarchical reinforcement learning problem and propose a language-driven optimization framework in which both high-level and low-level policies are parameterized by large language models (LLMs) and optimized exclusively through prompt updates. Our approach leverages pretrained LLMs as hierarchical policies and uses trajectory- and episode-level textual feedback to adapt abstractions and execution without gradient-based fine-tuning. By explicitly separating abstraction selection from execution, the framework reduces non-stationarity across hierarchical levels and enables targeted adaptation under delayed feedback. Experiments on real-world market data show consistent improvements over traditional and LLM-based baselines, demonstrating the effectiveness of language-driven hierarchical reinforcement learning.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

AUDITFLOW: Executable Symbolic Environments for Structured Financial Reporting Verification

Structured financial reporting verification requires connecting reported facts to accounting constraints, reconstructing expected values, and executing numerical checks. We study this problem through XBRL numerical consistency verification and introduce \textsc{AuditFlow}, a graph-grounded multi-agent framework built around an executable symbolic environment. The environment links a reusable US-GAAP taxonomy graph with filing-specific XBRL evidence and provides typed tools for retrieval, traversal, computation, and rule evaluation. Two specialized auditors investigate constraints and filing evidence, while a senior auditor coordinates disagreement-triggered refinement. Deterministic tools produce verification evidence; evidential aggregation combines structured reports, including agent-declared overrides, into final decisions. On a newly collected 1{,}000-instance evaluation set of engine-recorded DQC violations, \textsc{AuditFlow} achieves $87.70\%$ joint audit accuracy with Claude Sonnet 4.6, compared with $68.60\%$ for Single Agent and $86.70\%$ for Checker-only. Component and coverage analyses identify executable verification as the main source of accuracy, while additional gains from agent judgment depend on the backbone and checker coverage.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Factorized Hypothesis Search for Evidence-to-Taxonomy Retrieval

Large-taxonomy retrieval often assumes that the input already expresses the target concept. In many settings, however, the input is indirect evidence, such as a table cell whose meaning depends on its row, column, datatype, and context. We call this mismatch the retrieval readiness gap. Our analysis shows that the current index retrieves the target reliably when its semantics are explicit, while raw evidence often leaves it deep in the ranking. We propose Factorized Hypothesis Search (FHS), which maintains multiple partial interpretations over named semantic dimensions. These hypotheses support structured query rendering, multi-hypothesis retrieval, and dimension-level candidate verification. On both financial taxonomy tagging and CodiEsp clinical coding tasks, FHS achieves the best Recall@1, MRR, and final accuracy among the non-oracle methods. Replacing the factorized hypothesis path with a free-text ensemble causes the largest drop in head-ranking performance, while sequential refinement provides no additional gain over FHS's strong parallel first round.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Judges Follow the Reference: The Derivation Gap in Verifying Tool-Call Arguments

Tool-call judges evaluate argument values proposed by LLM agents. We find that they accept a correct value less often when their input holds no reference for it, that is, no text that says what the value should be. This happens when the value is a default value from the function schema that the user did not mention, when it has to be inferred, or when the text it comes from was cut from the judge input. We call this drop in acceptance the derivation gap. It appears across all seven judges we evaluate, including System One models CLM and Jev. The gap is not only a truncation artifact: correct default values have the largest gap on a benchmark with no truncation. A controlled source-relocation test shows that judges follow the reference in their input: they favor a visible incorrect value over a correct value whose source is hidden. We introduce DeRef (Derived Reference): a separate model reads the full history without seeing the candidate and writes a reference for the judge. Across three benchmarks, DeRef improves overall argument AUROC for all judges tested. On the controlled test, it raises AUROC from chance or below to between 98.40 and 99.59.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Prediction-Market Seed Capital Recovery from Noise-Dominant Flow

Automated prediction markets require sponsors to prefund liquidity before observing order flow, creating a financing challenge at launch. We study whether nonnegative charges conditioned on observable payoff direction can improve recovery of this prefunded capital while limiting their effect on informed participation. We develop Seed Capital Flow (SCF), a direction-conditioned levy, in a stylized binary cost-function market with informed and liquidity-motivated traders. When order composition differs across directions, SCF concentrates the permitted fee burden on the direction with relatively more liquidity-motivated flow, whereas a uniform fee spreads it across both directions. Under a sufficiently tight common retention constraint, this allocation yields higher expected recovery capacity and can make additional liquidity choices financially viable. Synthetic numerical audits examine robustness to alternative flow patterns, stochastic arrivals, and label misspecification. The results characterize a mechanism-design tradeoff rather than an empirical prediction: the market remains prefunded, recovery is expected rather than guaranteed, and the analysis is limited to an opening-cohort setting.

cs.CE↗
arXiv2026

FinTrace: Holistic Trajectory-Level Evaluation of LLM Tool Calling for Long-Horizon Financial Tasks

Recent studies demonstrate that tool-calling capability enables large language models (LLMs) to interact with external environments for long-horizon financial tasks. While existing benchmarks have begun evaluating financial tool calling, they focus on limited scenarios and rely on call-level metrics that fail to capture trajectory-level reasoning quality. To address this gap, we introduce FinTrace, a benchmark comprising 800 expert-annotated trajectories spanning 34 real-world financial task categories across multiple difficulty levels. FinTrace employs a rubric-based evaluation protocol with nine metrics organized along four axes -- action correctness, execution efficiency, process quality, and output quality -- enabling fine-grained assessment of LLM tool-calling behavior. Our evaluation of 13 LLMs reveals that while frontier models achieve strong tool selection, all models struggle with information utilization and final answer quality, exposing a critical gap between invoking the right tools and reasoning effectively over their outputs. To move beyond diagnosis, we construct FinTrace-Training, the first trajectory-level preference dataset for financial tool-calling, containing 8,196 curated trajectories with tool-augmented contexts and preference pairs. We fine-tune Qwen-3-8B/32B using supervised fine-tuning followed by direct preference optimization (DPO) and show that training on FinTrace-Training consistently improves intermediate reasoning metrics, with DPO more effectively suppressing failure modes. However, end-to-end answer quality remains a bottleneck, indicating that trajectory-level improvements do not yet fully propagate to final output quality.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Memorization in Large Language Models in Medicine: Prevalence, Characteristics, and Implications

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant potential in medicine, with many studies adapting them through continued pre-training or fine-tuning on medical data to enhance domain-specific accuracy and safety. However, a key open question remains: to what extent do LLMs memorize medical training data. Memorization can be beneficial when it enables LLMs to retain valuable medical knowledge during domain adaptation. Yet, it also raises concerns. LLMs may inadvertently reproduce sensitive clinical content (e.g., patient-specific details), and excessive memorization may reduce model generalizability, increasing risks of misdiagnosis and making unwarranted recommendations. These risks are further amplified by the generative nature of LLMs, which can not only surface memorized content but also produce overconfident, misleading outputs that may hinder clinical adoption. In this work, we present a study on memorization of LLMs in medicine, assessing its prevalence (how frequently it occurs), characteristics (what is memorized), volume (how much content is memorized), and potential downstream impacts (how memorization may affect medical applications). We systematically analyze common adaptation scenarios: (1) continued pretraining on medical corpora, (2) fine-tuning on standard medical benchmarks, and (3) fine-tuning on real-world clinical data, including over 13,000 unique inpatient records from Yale New Haven Health System. The results demonstrate that memorization is prevalent across all adaptation scenarios and significantly higher than that reported in the general domain. Moreover, memorization has distinct characteristics during continued pre-training and fine-tuning, and it is persistent: up to 87% of content memorized during continued pre-training remains after fine-tuning on new medical tasks.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Overview of FinMMEval 2026 Task 1: Multilingual Financial Multiple-Choice Question Answering

FinMMEval 2026 Task 1 evaluates multilingual financial multiple-choice question answering in English, Chinese, Arabic, and Hindi. The task tests whether systems can select the correct answer to finance questions involving domain terminology, numerical interpretation, and conceptual financial reasoning across languages and scripts. The final-test set contains 800 questions, with 200 questions per language; gold answers were withheld during submission, and each language was ranked independently by accuracy. The final leaderboards contain 13 English, 11 Chinese, 11 Arabic, and 10 Hindi ranked submissions. Top accuracies range from 92.0% in Hindi to 97.5% in English and Arabic, with the same leading teams appearing near the top across all four languages. The documented systems used retrieval augmentation, direct answer-option scoring, language-specific prompting, selective self-consistency, confidence checks, and LLM-based review stages.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Overview of FinMMEval 2026 Task 2: Multilingual Financial Short-Answer Question Answering

FinMMEval 2026 Task 2 evaluates short-answer financial question answering over multilingual evidence. Each final-test item pairs an English question with financial statements and news in English, Chinese, Japanese, Spanish, and Greek. Participating systems submit one concise answer per item in JSONL format. The final-test set contains 256 items, split evenly between easy and expert tiers; each tier contains four question templates instantiated over 32 company-report groups. Gold answers were withheld during submission, and systems were ranked by macro-averaged item-level ROUGE-1 F1 against organizer-held reference answers. The final leaderboard includes 12 ranked submissions. The strongest systems are closely clustered, with the top four separated by less than one percentage point in ROUGE-1 F1. The submitted system papers document retrieval-augmented generation, cross-lingual evidence handling, structured prompting, answer compression, and validation strategies.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

A safety-oriented hypothetico-deductive framework for AI-assisted differential diagnosis

Diagnostic error is a major threat to patient safety, yet current large language model (LLM) systems often treat diagnosis as a one-shot prediction task, lacking safeguards against missed high-risk alternatives or rigorous verification of their reasoning. Here, we present AegisDx, a safety-oriented framework for hypothetico-deductive clinical reasoning. AegisDx coordinates specialized LLM components through role-specific contracts, structured intermediate outputs, evidence-retrieval interfaces, and verification gates to generate broad differential diagnoses, enforce explicit screening for dangerous "must-not-miss" conditions, verify reasoning against grounded medical evidence, and structure actionable next steps. We evaluated AegisDx across three layers. On literature-derived case reports from NEJM and JAMA, with GPT-oss-120B as the shared backbone, Top-3 diagnostic accuracy was 59.9% versus 52.1% for the standalone LLM on JAMA cases and 62.7% versus 51.4% on NEJM cases. On cases from Annals of Emergency Medicine, Top-3 accuracy was 85.7% versus 68.6%; against physician-consensus must-not-miss diagnosis sets, AegisDx captured at least one such condition among its top three diagnoses in 78.0% of cases versus 52.0%. In a blinded physician evaluation of 43 real-world emergency department notes from the Yale New Haven Health System compared against GPT-5, AegisDx improved the physician-rated composite safety score from 4.31 to 4.55 on a 5-point scale (adjusted p = 2.1x10^-4), with qualitative gains in must-not-miss identification and reasoning safety. Our findings suggest that engineering diagnostic AI as a safety-oriented reasoning framework, rather than optimizing raw predictive accuracy alone, can provide a safer, more transparent, and clinically meaningful layer of bedside decision support for acute care workflows.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Can LLMs Be CEOs? Benchmarking Strategic Resource Reallocation with Multi-Role Agent Simulation

Evaluating the decision-making capabilities of large language models (LLMs) is a growing research priority, yet existing benchmarks focus on isolated cognitive tasks such as reasoning, knowledge retrieval, and economic rationality in stylized settings. These evaluations overlook the defining challenge of real executive decision-making: integrating conflicting recommendations from specialized stakeholders under information asymmetry, organizational constraints, and temporal dependencies. We introduce \textsc{CEO-Bench}, a multi-agent benchmark that evaluates LLMs on CEO-level strategic resource reallocation -- the process of redirecting capital across business units in a multi-round, constraint-rich organizational environment. In \textsc{CEO-Bench}, LLM agents receive conflicting advice from four role-conditioned C-suite advisors (CFO, CTO, COO, CMO), each with private signals and distinct priorities, and must synthesize these into a concrete allocation plan evaluated along four dimensions: role integration, conditional boldness, history-sensitive judgment, and plan validity. Experiments across five frontier models on 13 scenarios reveal that all models achieve high structural validity but diverge sharply on strategic calibration -- the hardest capability layer. We identify systematic failure modes including single-advisor capture, conservative default under ambiguity, and historical amnesia, and uncover a structural integration-boldness tradeoff: models that engage more deeply with conflicting perspectives tend to produce less decisive action. These findings delineate the current capability boundary of LLMs as organizational decision-makers and inform the design of future AI-assisted executive systems.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

FinTagging: Benchmarking LLMs for Extracting and Structuring Financial Information

Accurate interpretation of numerical data in financial reports is critical for markets and regulators. Although XBRL (eXtensible Business Reporting Language) provides a standard for tagging financial figures, mapping thousands of facts to over 10k US GAAP concepts remains costly and error prone. Existing benchmarks oversimplify this task as flat, single step classification over small subsets of concepts, ignoring the hierarchical semantics of the taxonomy and the structured nature of financial documents. Consequently, these benchmarks fail to evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) under realistic reporting conditions. To bridge this gap, we introduce FinTagging, the first comprehensive benchmark for structure aware and full scope XBRL tagging. We decompose the complex tagging process into two subtasks: (1) FinNI (Financial Numeric Identification), which extracts entities and types from heterogeneous contexts including text and tables; and (2) FinCL (Financial Concept Linking), which maps extracted entities to the full US GAAP taxonomy. This two stage formulation enables a fair assessment of LLMs' capabilities in numerical reasoning and taxonomy alignment. Evaluating diverse LLMs in zero shot settings reveals that while models generalize well in extraction, they struggle significantly with fine grained concept linking, highlighting critical limitations in domain specific structure aware reasoning.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

FinAuditing: A Financial Taxonomy-Structured Multi-Document Benchmark for Evaluating LLMs

Going beyond simple text processing, financial auditing requires detecting semantic, structural, and numerical inconsistencies across large-scale disclosures. As financial reports are filed in XBRL, a structured XML format governed by accounting standards, auditing becomes a structured information extraction and reasoning problem involving concept alignment, taxonomy-defined relations, and cross-document consistency. Although large language models (LLMs) show promise on isolated financial tasks, their capability in professional-grade auditing remains unclear. We introduce FinAuditing, a taxonomy-aligned, structure-aware benchmark built from real XBRL filings. It contains 1,102 annotated instances averaging over 33k tokens and defines three tasks: Financial Semantic Matching (FinSM), Financial Relationship Extraction (FinRE), and Financial Mathematical Reasoning (FinMR). Evaluations of 13 state-of-the-art LLMs reveal substantial gaps in concept retrieval, taxonomy-aware relation modeling, and consistent cross-document reasoning. These findings highlight the need for realistic, structure-aware benchmarks. We release the evaluation code at https://github.com/The-FinAI/FinAuditing and the dataset at https://huggingface.co/collections/TheFinAI/finauditing. The task currently serves as the official benchmark of an ongoing public evaluation contest at https://open-finance-lab.github.io/SecureFinAI_Contest_2026/.

cs.CL↗