arXiv subjects

Lucas Bickmann

Publications and source records attributed to Lucas Bickmann.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Information Specialization and Constrained Synthesis in Multi-Agent LLM Forecasting: A Prospective Live-Study of the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Large language models are being organized into multi-agent systems with specialized roles, but whether such specialization produces distinct forecasts and whether subsequent synthesis improves utility remains unclear. In this study, we carried out a live, prospective evaluation over the final 56 matches of the information-dense 2026 FIFA World Cup, keeping a frontier foundation model constant while assigning two primary forecasting agents contrasting specialist roles: a quantitative specialist focusing on structured performance statistics and a news specialist focusing on current injuries, tactics and information from press conferences. Their forecasts were then reviewed by a separate critic before being combined by a meta-agent, resulting in a sequential four-agent model. Forecasts from the betting market served as an external benchmark. The news specialist obtained the highest mean probability-weighted Top-3 utility and matched the betting market in Top-3 exact-score hits. Nevertheless, the two specialist forecasters agreed on at least two of the three scorelines in 50 out of 56 matches, and the meta-agent never generated more than one scoreline outside the specialists' forecast set. These findings show that rapidly changing, unstructured information can provide a valuable forecasting signal alongside structured statistics, whereas adding critic and meta-agent stages does not necessarily create complementary information or improve on the strongest specialist.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

ExChanGeAI: An End-to-End Platform and Efficient Foundation Model for Electrocardiogram Analysis and Fine-tuning

Electrocardiogram data, one of the most widely available biosignal data, has become increasingly valuable with the emergence of deep learning methods, providing novel insights into cardiovascular diseases and broader health conditions. However, heterogeneity of electrocardiogram formats, limited access to deep learning model weights and intricate algorithmic steps for effective fine-tuning for own disease target labels result in complex workflows. In this work, we introduce ExChanGeAI, a web-based end-to-end platform that streamlines the reading of different formats, pre-processing, visualization and custom machine learning with local and privacy-preserving fine-tuning. ExChanGeAI is adaptable for use on both personal computers and scalable to high performance server environments. The platform offers state-of-the-art deep learning models for training from scratch, alongside our novel open-source electrocardiogram foundation model CardX, pre-trained on over one million electrocardiograms. Evaluation across three external validation sets, including an entirely new testset extracted from routine care, demonstrate the fine-tuning capabilities of ExChanGeAI. CardX outperformed the benchmark foundation model while requiring significantly fewer parameters and lower computational resources. The platform enables users to empirically determine the most suitable model for their specific tasks based on systematic validations.The code is available at https://imigitlab.uni-muenster.de/published/exchangeai .

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

The Rlign Algorithm for Enhanced Electrocardiogram Analysis through R-Peak Alignment for Explainable Classification and Clustering

Electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings have long been vital in diagnosing different cardiac conditions. Recently, research in the field of automatic ECG processing using machine learning methods has gained importance, mainly by utilizing deep learning methods on raw ECG signals. A major advantage of models like convolutional neural networks (CNNs) is their ability to effectively process biomedical imaging or signal data. However, this strength is tempered by challenges related to their lack of explainability, the need for a large amount of training data, and the complexities involved in adapting them for unsupervised clustering tasks. In addressing these tasks, we aim to reintroduce shallow learning techniques, including support vector machines and principal components analysis, into ECG signal processing by leveraging their semi-structured, cyclic form. To this end, we developed and evaluated a transformation that effectively restructures ECG signals into a fully structured format, facilitating their subsequent analysis using shallow learning algorithms. In this study, we present this adaptive transformative approach that aligns R-peaks across all signals in a dataset and resamples the segments between R-peaks, both with and without heart rate dependencies. We illustrate the substantial benefit of this transformation for traditional analysis techniques in the areas of classification, clustering, and explainability, outperforming commercial software for median beat transformation and CNN approaches. Our approach demonstrates a significant advantage for shallow machine learning methods over CNNs, especially when dealing with limited training data. Additionally, we release a fully tested and publicly accessible code framework, providing a robust alignment pipeline to support future research, available at https://github.com/imi-ms/rlign.

eess.SP↗