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Mark Higgins

Publications and source records attributed to Mark Higgins.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Keeping Up with the Correlations: Stochastic Spot/Volatility Correlation and Exotic Pricing

We consider a novel use case for the Double Heston model (Christoffersen et al,, 2009), where the two Heston sub-variances have different spot/volatility correlations but the same volatility of volatility and mean reversion speed. This parameterization generalizes the traditional Heston stochastic volatility model (Heston, 1993) to include stochastic spot/volatility correlation. It is an affine model, allowing European options to be priced efficiently by numerically integrating over a closed-form characteristic function. This model incorporates a key dynamic relevant for pricing barrier derivatives in the foreign exchange markets: a positive correlation between moves in implied volatility skew and moves in the spot price. We analyze that correlation and its impact on both barrier option pricing and volatility swap pricing. Those price impacts are comparable to or larger than the bid/ask spreads for these products. Adding stochastic spot/volatility correlation increases the prices of out-of-the-money knockout options and one touch options, assuming that the model is calibrated to market vanilla option prices. It also increases the fair strike of volatility swaps compared to the Heston model.

q-fin.PR

A Two Factor Forward Curve Model with Stochastic Volatility for Commodity Prices

We describe a model for evolving commodity forward prices that incorporates three important dynamics which appear in many commodity markets: mean reversion in spot prices and the resulting Samuelson effect on volatility term structure, decorrelation of moves in different points on the forward curve, and implied volatility skew and smile. This model is a "forward curve model" - it describes the stochastic evolution of forward prices - rather than a "spot model" that models the evolution of the spot commodity price. Two Brownian motions drive moves across the forward curve, with a third Heston-like stochastic volatility process scaling instantaneous volatilities of all forward prices. In addition to an efficient numerical scheme for calculating European vanilla and early-exercise option prices, we describe an algorithm for Monte Carlo-based pricing of more generic derivative payoffs which involves an efficient approximation for the risk neutral drift that avoids having to simulate drifts for every forward settlement date required for pricing.

q-fin.PR

Stochastic Spot/Volatility Correlation in Stochastic Volatility Models and Barrier Option Pricing

Most models for barrier pricing are designed to let a market maker tune the model-implied covariance between moves in the asset spot price and moves in the implied volatility skew. This is often implemented with a local volatility/stochastic volatility mixture model, where the mixture parameter tunes that covariance. This paper defines an alternate model where the spot/volatility correlation is a separate mean-reverting stochastic variable which is itself correlated with spot. We also develop an efficient approximation for barrier option and one touch pricing in the model based on semi-static vega replication and compare it with Monte Carlo pricing. The approximation works well in markets where the risk neutral drift is modest.

q-fin.PR