arXiv subjects

Martin A. Reiss

Publications and source records attributed to Martin A. Reiss.

21 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models

High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluate high-speed stream forecasts made by the empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) and the semiempirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model based on the in situ plasma measurements from the ACE spacecraft for the years 2011 to 2014. While the ESWF makes use of an empirical relation between the coronal hole area observed in Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) images and solar wind properties at the near-Earth environment, the WSA model establishes a link between properties of the open magnetic field lines extending from the photosphere to the corona and the background solar wind conditions. We found that both solar wind models are capable of predicting the large-scale features of the observed solar wind speed (root-mean-square error, RMSE $\approx$ 100 km/s) but tend to either overestimate (ESWF) or underestimate (WSA) the number of high-speed solar wind streams (threat score, TS $\approx$ 0.37). The predicted high-speed streams show typical uncertainties in the arrival time of about 1 day and uncertainties in the speed of about 100 km/s. General advantages and disadvantages of the investigated solar wind models are diagnosed and outlined.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2015

Improvements on coronal hole detection in SDO/AIA images using supervised classification

We demonstrate the use of machine learning algorithms in combination with segmentation techniques in order to distinguish coronal holes and filaments in SDO/AIA EUV images of the Sun. Based on two coronal hole detection techniques (intensity-based thresholding, SPoCA), we prepared data sets of manually labeled coronal hole and filament channel regions present on the Sun during the time range 2011 - 2013. By mapping the extracted regions from EUV observations onto HMI line-of-sight magnetograms we also include their magnetic characteristics. We computed shape measures from the segmented binary maps as well as first order and second order texture statistics from the segmented regions in the EUV images and magnetograms. These attributes were used for data mining investigations to identify the most performant rule to differentiate between coronal holes and filament channels. We applied several classifiers, namely Support Vector Machine, Linear Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Random Forest and found that all classification rules achieve good results in general, with linear SVM providing the best performances (with a true skill statistic of ~0.90). Additional information from magnetic field data systematically improves the performance across all four classifiers for the SPoCA detection. Since the calculation is inexpensive in computing time, this approach is well suited for applications on real-time data. This study demonstrates how a machine learning approach may help improve upon an unsupervised feature extraction method.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Strong coronal channelling and interplanetary evolution of a solar storm up to Earth and Mars

The severe geomagnetic effects of solar storms or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are to a large degree determined by their propagation direction with respect to Earth. There is a lack of understanding of the processes that determine their non-radial propagation. Here we present a synthesis of data from seven different space missions of a fast CME, which originated in an active region near the disk centre and, hence, a significant geomagnetic impact was forecasted. However, the CME is demonstrated to be channelled during eruption into a direction + 37+/-10 degree (longitude) away from its source region, leading only to minimal geomagnetic effects. In situ observations near Earth and Mars confirm the channelled CME motion, and are consistent with an ellipse shape of the CME-driven shock provided by the new Ellipse Evolution model, presented here. The results enhance our understanding of CME propagation and shape, which can help to improve space weather forecasts.

astro-ph.SR↗