arXiv subjects

Michael Fauss

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Fauss.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Nonparametric Kiefer-Weiss Problem

A nonparametric variant of the Kiefer-Weiss problem is proposed and solved. The objective is to minimize a weighted sum of the error probabilities of a binary sequential test subject to a constraint on its maximum expected sample size. This maximum is taken over all possible probability distributions on the given sequence space. First, it is shown that the nonparametric Kiefer-Weiss problem can be reduced to an optimal stopping problem. Then, the optimal stopping policy is derived under the assumption that at most k uses of randomization are permitted during any run of the test. The solution to the original problem is then obtained by letting k go to infinity. The optimal cost function is shown to be the solution of a nonlinear Bellman equation. The corresponding optimal stopping policy is shown to be based on a two-dimensional test statistic, with one component tracking the likelihood ratio and the other one tracking the expected remaining sample size. Critically, the stopping policy uses randomization to increase the remaining expected sample size for some runs, while stopping early for others. The optimal randomization rule is shown to be determined by a function that maps the likelihood ratio to an integer-valued sample size. Two approximations of this function are proposed that can be evaluated easily in practice. The results are illustrated with two numerical examples of nonparametric Kiefer-Weiss tests, one for a shift in the success probability of a Bernoulli distribution, and one for a shift in the mean of a normal distribution.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Test Security in Remote Testing Age: Perspectives from Process Data Analytics and AI

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the implementation and acceptance of remotely proctored high-stake assessments. While the flexible administration of the tests brings forth many values, it raises test security-related concerns. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence (AI) has witnessed tremendous advances in the last five years. Many AI tools (such as the very recent ChatGPT) can generate high-quality responses to test items. These new developments require test security research beyond the statistical analysis of scores and response time. Data analytics and AI methods based on clickstream process data can get us deeper insight into the test-taking process and hold great promise for securing remotely administered high-stakes tests. This chapter uses real-world examples to show that this is indeed the case.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2024

AI-generated Essays: Characteristics and Implications on Automated Scoring and Academic Integrity

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has enabled the generation of coherent essays, making AI-assisted writing increasingly common in educational and professional settings. Using large-scale empirical data, we examine and benchmark the characteristics and quality of essays generated by popular LLMs and discuss their implications for two key components of writing assessments: automated scoring and academic integrity. Our findings highlight limitations in existing automated scoring systems, such as e-rater, when applied to essays generated or heavily influenced by AI, and identify areas for improvement, including the development of new features to capture deeper thinking and recalibrating feature weights. Despite growing concerns that the increasing variety of LLMs may undermine the feasibility of detecting AI-generated essays, our results show that detectors trained on essays generated from one model can often identify texts from others with high accuracy, suggesting that effective detection could remain manageable in practice.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

CVaR-based Safety Analysis in the Infinite Time Horizon Setting

We develop a risk-averse safety analysis method for stochastic systems on discrete infinite time horizons. Our method quantifies the notion of risk for a control system in terms of the severity of a harmful random outcome in a fraction of the worst cases. In contrast, classical methods quantify risk in terms of the probability of a harmful event. Our theoretical arguments are based on the analysis of a value iteration algorithm on an augmented state space. We provide conditions to guarantee the existence of an optimal policy on this space. We illustrate the method numerically using an example from the domain of stormwater management.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

On Optimizing the Conditional Value-at-Risk of a Maximum Cost for Risk-Averse Safety Analysis

The popularity of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), a risk functional from finance, has been growing in the control systems community due to its intuitive interpretation and axiomatic foundation. We consider a nonstandard optimal control problem in which the goal is to minimize the CVaR of a maximum random cost subject to a Borel-space Markov decision process. The objective represents the maximum departure from a desired operating region averaged over a given fraction of the worst cases. This problem provides a safety criterion for a stochastic system that is informed by both the probability and severity of the potential consequences of the system's behavior. In contrast, existing safety analysis frameworks apply stage-wise risk constraints or assess the probability of constraint violation without quantifying the potential severity of the violation. To the best of our knowledge, the problem of interest has not been solved. To solve the problem, we propose and study a family of stochastic dynamic programs on an augmented state space. We prove that the optimal CVaR of a maximum random cost enjoys an equivalent representation in terms of the solutions to these dynamic programs under appropriate assumptions. For each dynamic program, we show the existence of an optimal policy that depends on the dynamics of an augmented state under the assumptions. In a numerical example, we illustrate how our safety analysis framework is useful for assessing the severity of combined sewer overflows under precipitation uncertainty.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

The Vector Poisson Channel: On the Linearity of the Conditional Mean Estimator

This work studies properties of the conditional mean estimator in vector Poisson noise. The main emphasis is to study conditions on prior distributions that induce linearity of the conditional mean estimator. The paper consists of two main results. The first result shows that the only distribution that induces the linearity of the conditional mean estimator is a product gamma distribution. Moreover, it is shown that the conditional mean estimator cannot be linear when the dark current parameter of the Poisson noise is non-zero. The second result produces a quantitative refinement of the first result. Specifically, it is shown that if the conditional mean estimator is close to linear in a mean squared error sense, then the prior distribution must be close to a product gamma distribution in terms of their characteristic functions. Finally, the results are compared to their Gaussian counterparts.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2018

Minimax Optimal Sequential Hypothesis Tests for Markov Processes

Under mild Markov assumptions, sufficient conditions for strict minimax optimality of sequential tests for multiple hypotheses under distributional uncertainty are derived. First, the design of optimal sequential tests for simple hypotheses is revisited and it is shown that the partial derivatives of the corresponding cost function are closely related to the performance metrics of the underlying sequential test. Second, an implicit characterization of the least favorable distributions for a given testing policy is stated. By combining the results on optimal sequential tests and least favorable distributions, sufficient conditions for a sequential test to be minimax optimal under general distributional uncertainties are obtained. The cost function of the minimax optimal test is further identified as a generalized $f$-dissimilarity and the least favorable distributions as those that are most similar with respect to this dissimilarity. Numerical examples for minimax optimal sequential tests under different uncertainties illustrate the theoretical results.

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arXiv2018

Bayesian Sequential Joint Detection and Estimation

Joint detection and estimation refers to deciding between two or more hypotheses and, depending on the test outcome, simultaneously estimating the unknown parameters of the underlying distribution. This problem is investigated in a sequential framework under mild assumptions on the underlying random process. We formulate an unconstrained sequential decision problem, whose cost function is the weighted sum of the expected run-length and the detection/estimation errors. Then, a strong connection between the derivatives of the cost function with respect to the weights, which can be interpreted as Lagrange multipliers, and the detection/estimation errors of the underlying scheme is shown. This property is used to characterize the solution of a closely related sequential decision problem, whose objective function is the expected run-length under constraints on the average detection/estimation errors. We show that the solution of the constrained problem coincides with the solution of the unconstrained problem with suitably chosen weights. These weights are characterized as the solution of a linear program, which can be solved using efficient off-the-shelf solvers. The theoretical results are illustrated with two example problems, for which optimal sequential schemes are designed numerically and whose performance is validated via Monte Carlo simulations.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2018

Tight MMSE Bounds for the AGN Channel Under KL Divergence Constraints on the Input Distribution

Tight bounds on the minimum mean square error for the additive Gaussian noise channel are derived, when the input distribution is constrained to be epsilon-close to a Gaussian reference distribution in terms of the Kullback--Leibler divergence. The distributions that attain the bounds are shown be Gaussian whose means are identical to that of the reference distribution and whose covariance matrices are defined implicitly via systems of matrix equations. The estimator that attains the upper bound is identified as a minimax optimal estimator that is robust against deviations from the assumed prior. The lower bound is shown to provide a potentially tighter alternative to the Cramer--Rao bound. Both properties are illustrated with numerical examples.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

On the Equivalence of f-Divergence Balls and Density Bands in Robust Detection

The paper deals with minimax optimal statistical tests for two composite hypotheses, where each hypothesis is defined by a non-parametric uncertainty set of feasible distributions. It is shown that for every pair of uncertainty sets of the f-divergence ball type, a pair of uncertainty sets of the density band type can be constructed, which is equivalent in the sense that it admits the same pair of least favorable distributions. This result implies that robust tests under $f$-divergence ball uncertainty, which are typically only minimax optimal for the single sample case, are also fixed sample size minimax optimal with respect to the equivalent density band uncertainty sets.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

On the Minimization of Convex Functionals of Probability Distributions Under Band Constraints

The problem of minimizing convex functionals of probability distributions is solved under the assumption that the density of every distribution is bounded from above and below. A system of sufficient and necessary first-order optimality conditions as well as a bound on the optimality gap of feasible candidate solutions are derived. Based on these results, two numerical algorithms are proposed that iteratively solve the system of optimality conditions on a grid of discrete points. Both algorithms use a block coordinate descent strategy and terminate once the optimality gap falls below the desired tolerance. While the first algorithm is conceptually simpler and more efficient, it is not guaranteed to converge for objective functions that are not strictly convex. This shortcoming is overcome in the second algorithm, which uses an additional outer proximal iteration, and, which is proven to converge under mild assumptions. Two examples are given to demonstrate the theoretical usefulness of the optimality conditions as well as the high efficiency and accuracy of the proposed numerical algorithms.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2015

A Linear Programming Approach to Sequential Hypothesis Testing

Under some mild Markov assumptions it is shown that the problem of designing optimal sequential tests for two simple hypotheses can be formulated as a linear program. The result is derived by investigating the Lagrangian dual of the sequential testing problem, which is an unconstrained optimal stopping problem, depending on two unknown Lagrangian multipliers. It is shown that the derivative of the optimal cost function with respect to these multipliers coincides with the error probabilities of the corresponding sequential test. This property is used to formulate an optimization problem that is jointly linear in the cost function and the Lagrangian multipliers and an be solved for both with off-the-shelf algorithms. To illustrate the procedure, optimal sequential tests for Gaussian random sequences with different dependency structures are derived, including the Gaussian AR(1) process.

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