arXiv subjects

Michael Hellstern

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Hellstern.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Assumption-Lean Inference for Spectral Differential Network Analysis of High-Dimensional Time Series

Network analysis for multivariate time series is popular in many fields, from neuroscience to seismology. The inverse spectral density is a common choice for time series network analysis due to its representation of the frequency domain correlation between two variables after removing the best linear predictor of all other variables. In many applications, the goal is to study how these networks change across different conditions. For example, in neuroscience, one might be interested in how the brain connectivity network changes before and after stimulation. Towards this goal, we develop an inference framework based on a direct estimate of the difference in two high-dimensional inverse spectral densities. We develop a new Gaussian approximation error bound for any de-biased D-trace estimation procedure which is then leveraged to both inform optimal window sizes of Welch's estimators of the spectral density and establish asymptotic normality of our de-biased D-trace estimator. Moreover, we develop an efficient algorithm based on a generalized D-trace estimation procedure to overcome the computational complexity of high-dimensional inference. The method is illustrated on synthetic data experiments and on experiments with electroencephalography data.

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arXiv2025

Order Selection in Vector Autoregression by Mean Square Information Criterion

Vector autoregressive (VAR) processes are ubiquitously used in economics, finance, and biology. Order selection is an essential step in fitting VAR models. While many order selection methods exist, all come with weaknesses. Order selection by minimizing AIC is a popular approach but is known to consistently overestimate the true order for processes of small dimension. On the other hand, methods based on BIC or the Hannan-Quinn (HQ) criteria are shown to require large sample sizes in order to accurately estimate the order for larger-dimensional processes. We propose the mean square information criterion (MIC) based on the observation that the expected squared error loss is flat once the fitted order reaches or exceeds the true order. MIC is shown to consistently estimate the order of the process under relatively mild conditions. Our simulation results show that MIC offers better performance relative to AIC, BIC, and HQ under misspecification. This advantage is corroborated when forecasting COVID-19 outcomes in New York City. Order selection by MIC is implemented in the micvar R package available on CRAN.

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arXiv2025

Spectral Differential Network Analysis for High-Dimensional Time Series

Spectral networks derived from multivariate time series data arise in many domains, from brain science to Earth science. Often, it is of interest to study how these networks change under different conditions. For instance, to better understand epilepsy, it would be interesting to capture the changes in the brain connectivity network as a patient experiences a seizure, using electroencephalography data. A common approach relies on estimating the networks in each condition and calculating their difference. Such estimates may behave poorly in high dimensions as the networks themselves may not be sparse in structure while their difference may be. We build upon this observation to develop an estimator of the difference in inverse spectral densities across two conditions. Using an L1 penalty on the difference, consistency is established by only requiring the difference to be sparse. We illustrate the method on synthetic data experiments and on experiments with electroencephalography data.

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