arXiv subjects

Mingfu Zhang

Publications and source records attributed to Mingfu Zhang.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

OranSim: Simulating Social Media Marketing

Social simulation studies how individual behavior and social interaction produce collective outcomes. In social media marketing, campaign actions shape which consumers encounter the content and how they respond; these responses then spread through the population. We propose OranSim, a social simulation framework that connects creative, creator, targeting, and budget choices to this process. Heterogeneous consumers receive exposure according to content matching and platform allocation and generate initial responses, which propagate among 60 population segments. Candidate campaigns share the initial population and aligned random numbers, making their response trajectories comparable under action changes. In a controlled synthetic campaign, doubling the budget approximately doubles reach while lowering mean content match and engagement probability among the reached consumers; mean 14-day cumulative simulated response mass rises to 1.96 times the baseline. LightGBM predictors fitted to 39,000 historical RedNote notes estimate platform engagement with log-scale $R^2$ of 0.56--0.62 in five-fold cross-validation; a separate 12,154-note corpus supplies temporal, unseen-creator, and held-out-niche test splits. Public-data experiments evaluate policy value and audience ranking, and paired synthetic outcomes test counterfactual scoring. Together, scenario trajectories and engagement estimates support campaign selection according to a prespecified marketing objective. Code is available at https://github.com/OranAi-Ltd/oransim.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Learning Collective Dynamics with Differentiable Gaussian Representations

Collective responses depend on individual differences, contact opportunities, and accumulated experience. Learning their dynamics from aggregate counts requires connecting a population's response distribution to both current observations and future behavior. We introduce Differentiable Gaussian Dynamics (DGD), which learns this connection through three components: a Gaussian mixture representing heterogeneous response propensities, differentiable aggregation of contact intensity and behavioral probabilities, and feedback recurrence that updates subsequent responses. Reparameterized integration and temporal recurrence let aggregate prediction errors jointly train the distribution, observation functions, and feedback parameters. On four windows from KuaiRand-Pure and Online Retail II, DGD achieves lower joint behavioral negative log-likelihood than a DeepAR adaptation with a joint-behavior head. In Retail 2010, its one-day behavioral-count MAE is 4.71 versus 6.88 for this adaptation. Learning the distribution reduces behavioral negative log-likelihood by 10.82% relative to a fixed Gaussian in KuaiRand's standard-recommendation window; removing feedback dynamics raises joint KL from 0.0340 to 0.2577 in a controlled experiment. These results establish the value of learning population representations and their feedback process from aggregate observations. Code is available at https://github.com/OranAi-Ltd/oransim.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MUSE: A Theory-Harnessed Story Engine for Vibe Narrativizing

LLMs have been able to generate fluent prose, but high-quality stories also require coordinated decisions about plot, character, and language across planning, drafting, and revision. We formulate Vibe Narrativizing as turning natural-language writing requirements into a finished story. MUSE, a Theory-Harnessed Story Engine, addresses two bottlenecks: rule quality and sustained rule realization. Story theory supplies the rules, and a practical agent harness puts them to work. Knowledge engineering organizes Robert McKee's theory through rule atomization, semantic consolidation, mechanism abstraction, a single source of truth, and layered disclosure; typical examples clarify judgments that depend on context and aesthetic purpose. The harness preserves story decisions in intermediate deliverables across design, character performance, scene composition, and revision. Context engineering supplies each role with relevant guidance and decisions; a masterwork corpus provides inspiration and prose references. A worked example follows a requested object from its thematic role to climactic actions. Across four base models, MUSE improves WritingBench by 1.1 to 6.2 points over zero-shot generation; it is the only multi-stage system in our comparison to do so. It also raises LongStoryEval by more than ten points on three of the four models. ConStory-Bench consistency error density remains in the low single digits for all four models, below every reproduced story-system baseline on three of the four models. Ablations locate the largest quality contribution in structural design, voice-specific effects in the character path, and further gains in revision.

cs.CL↗