Nathaniel D. Bastian | Search arXiv

arXiv2026

CUSP: Decomposable Collective Uncertainty for Multi-Agent Multimodal Reasoning

Aggregating heterogeneous vision-language models (VLMs) can improve multimodal reasoning, but neither an individual model's confidence nor that of the aggregated answer measures reliability at the system level. We present CUSP (Collective Uncertainty through Semantic Opinion Pooling), a training-free uncertainty quantification framework that maps multiple VLM responses to a shared semantic response space, pools them into a pooled semantic opinion, and reports two complementary system-level signals: collective uncertainty, the dispersion of the pooled opinion, and Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD), the conflict among the model-level opinions. Within this pooled semantic opinion, the unnormalized collective entropy decomposes exactly into the mean of the models' individual semantic entropies and the JSD, separating total dispersion from model conflict. Requiring neither token logits nor calibration labels, CUSP applies to open-weight and commercial VLMs alike. In static multi-VLM ensembles, collective uncertainty is the strongest signal in the small-model regime (0.764 AUROC for prediction-error detection, 0.889 AUARC for abstention), outperforming uncertainty baselines majority voting and naive selection by 4.7 to 15.8 points and widening its margin as the ensemble grows; JSD is strongest in the evaluated commercial regime (0.819 AUROC, 0.910 AUARC) and ranks hard-answer model conflict with AUROC up to 0.982. The pooled prediction also improves accuracy over the average single model by 5.6 to 13.0 points. Over the full trajectory of a multi-step, multi-agent system, subagent collective uncertainty ranks system failures above chance (0.619 AUROC) and gives the best abstention ordering among the evaluated signals (0.699 AUARC).

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

A Few Large Shifts: Layer-Inconsistency Based Minimal Overhead Adversarial Example Detection

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are highly susceptible to adversarial examples---small, malicious perturbations that can cause incorrect predictions. We introduce a lightweight, plug-in detector that uses internal layer-wise inconsistencies within the target model and requires only benign data for fitting and calibration. The approach is motivated by the A Few Large Shifts Assumption, an empirical hypothesis that adversarial perturbations often produce large, localized growth in representation changes across a small number of consecutive layers, connecting adversarial behavior to layer-wise Lipschitz continuity. We develop two complementary scores---Recovery Testing (RT) for intermediate-layer inconsistency and Logit-layer Testing (LT) for augmentation-induced output instability---and fuse them through RLT. Across CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet, RLT achieves strong detection performance under standard attacks with substantially lower overhead than detector families requiring external encoders or reference-set retrieval. We further study its behavior under adaptive attacks, at low false-positive operating points, and under benign distribution shifts. The code is available here: https://github.com/c0510gy/AFLS-AED.

cs.LG↗