arXiv subjects

P. Makela

Publications and source records attributed to P. Makela.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Intense Geomagnetic Storms during Solar Cycles 23-25

Intense geomagnetic storms are characterized by a minimum value of the Dst index at or below -100 nT. It is well known that these storms are caused by the southward magnetic fields in coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). While CIR storms are confined to Dst values at or above -150 nT, CME storms can reach Dst -500 nT or lower. In this report, we illustrate the need to understand the storm evolution based on solar source and solar wind parameters using a recent storm (2023 April 24) by way of providing the motivation to catalog such events for a better understanding of the main phase time structure of geomagnetic storms

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arXiv2023

The Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST)

We report on a study of the Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) mission that will provide comprehensive imagery and time series data needed to understand the magnetic connection between the solar interior and the solar atmosphere/inner heliosphere. MOST will build upon the successes of SOHO and STEREO missions with new views of the Sun and enhanced instrument capabilities. This article is based on a study conducted at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center that determined the required instrument refinement, spacecraft accommodation, launch configuration, and flight dynamics for mission success. MOST is envisioned as the next generation great observatory positioned to obtain three-dimensional information of large-scale heliospheric structures such as coronal mass ejections, stream interaction regions, and the solar wind itself. The MOST mission consists of 2 pairs of spacecraft located in the vicinity of Sun-Earth Lagrange points L4 (MOST1, MOST3) and L5 (MOST2 and MOST4). The spacecraft stationed at L4 (MOST1) and L5 (MOST2) will each carry seven remote-sensing and three in-situ instrument suites, including a novel radio package known as the Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric structures (FETCH). MOST3 and MOST4 will carry only the FETCH instruments and are positioned at variable locations along the Earth orbit up to 20{\deg} ahead of L4 and 20{\deg} behind L5, respectively. FETCH will have polarized radio transmitters and receivers on all four spacecraft to measure the magnetic content of solar wind structures propagating from the Sun to Earth using the Faraday rotation technique. The MOST mission will be able to sample the magnetized plasma throughout the Sun-Earth connected space during the mission lifetime over a solar cycle.

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arXiv2021

Diffuse Interplanetary Radio Emission from a Polar Coronal Mass Ejection

We report on the first detection of nonthermal radio emission associated with a polar coronal mass ejection. We call the radio emission as diffuse interplanetary radio emission (DIRE), which occurs in the decameter-hectometric wavelengths. The radio emission originates from the shock flanks that interact with nearby streamers.

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arXiv2021

The Common Origin of High-energy Protons in Solar Energetic Particle Events and Sustained Gamma-ray Emission from the Sun

We report that the number of > 500 MeV protons (Ng) inferred from sustained gamma ray emission (SGRE) from the Sun is significantly correlated with that of protons propagating into space (NSEP) as solar energetic particles (SEPs). Under the shock paradigm for SGRE, shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) accelerate high-energy protons sending them toward the Sun to produce SGRE by interacting with the atmospheric particles. Particles also escape into the space away from the Sun to be detected as SEP events. Therefore, the significant NSEP vs. Ng correlation (correlation coefficient 0.77) is consistent with the common shock origin for the two proton populations. Furthermore, the underlying CMEs have properties akin to those involved in ground level enhancement (GLE) events indicating the presence of high-energy (up to GeV) particles required for SGRE. We show that the observed gamma-ray flux is an underestimate in limb events (central meridian distance > 60 degrees) because SGRE sources are partially occulted when the emission is spatially extended. With the assumption that the SEP spectrum at the shock nose is hard and that the 100 MeV particles are accelerated throughout the shock surface (half width in the range 60 to 120 degrees) we find that the latitudinal widths of SEP distributions are energy dependent with the smallest width at the highest energies. Not using the energy-dependent width results in an underestimate of NSEP in SGRE events occurring at relatively higher latitudes. Taking these two effects into account removes the apparent lack of NSEP - Ng correlation reported in previous studies.

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arXiv2019

On the Shock Source of Sustained Gamma-Ray Emission from the Sun

It has recently been shown that the spatially and temporally extended gamma-ray emission in solar eruptions are caused by greater than 300 MeV protons precipitating on the Sun from shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The gamma-rays result from the decay of neutral pions produced in the proton-proton interaction when the greater than 300 MeV protons collide with those in the chromosphere. The evidence comes from the close correlation between the durations of the sustained gamma-ray emission (SGRE) and the associated interplanetary (IP) type II radio bursts. In this paper, we provide further evidence that support the idea that protons accelerated in IP shocks driven by CMEs propagate toward the Sun, precipitate in the chromosphere to produce the observed SGRE. We present the statistical properties of the SGRE events and the associated CMEs, flares, and type II radio bursts. It is found that the SGRE CMEs are similar to those associated with ground level enhancement events. The CME speed is well correlated with the SGRE fluence. High CME speed is an important requirement for the occurrence of SGRE, while the flare size is not. Based on these results, we present a schematic model illustrating the spatially and temporally extended nature of SGRE related to the CME flux rope-shock structure.

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arXiv2018

Fermi, Wind, and SOHO Observations of Sustained Gamma-Ray Emission from the Sun

We report on the linear relationship between the durations of two types of electromagnetic emissions associated with shocks driven by coronal mass ejections: sustained gamma-ray emission (SGRE) and interplanetary type II radio bursts. The relationship implies that shocks accelerate about 10 keV electrons (for type II bursts) and greater than 300 MeV protons (for SGRE) roughly over the same duration. The SGRE events are from the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi satellite, while the type II bursts are from the Radio and Plasma Wave Experiment (WAVES) on board the Wind spacecraft. Here we consider five SGRE events that were not included in a previous study of events with longer duration (greater than 5 hours). The five events are selected by relaxing the minimum duration to 3 hours. We found that some SGRE events had a tail that seems to last until the end of the associated type II burst. We pay special attention to the 2011 June 2 SGRE event that did not have a large solar energetic particle event at Earth or at the STEREO spacecraft that was well connected to the eruption. We suggest that the preceding CME acted as a magnetic barrier that mirrored protons back to Sun.

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arXiv2018

Sun-to-Earth Propagation of the 2015 June 21 Coronal Mass Ejection Revealed by Optical, EUV, and Radio Observations

We investigate the propagation of the 2015 June 21 CME-driven shock as revealed by the type II bursts at metric and longer wavelengths and coronagraph observations. The CME was associated with the second largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24 and a large solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The eruption consisted of two M-class flares, with the first one being confined, with no metric or interplanetary radio bursts. However, there was intense microwave burst, indicating accelerated particles injected toward the Sun. The second flare was eruptive that resulted in a halo CME. The CME was deflected primarily by an equatorial coronal hole that resulted in the modification of the intensity profile of the associated SEP event and the duration of the CME at Earth. The interplanetary type II burst was particularly intense and was visible from the corona all the way to the vicinity of the Wind spacecraft with fundamental-harmonic structure. We computed the shock speed using the type II drift rates at various heliocentric distances and obtained information on the evolution of the shock that matched coronagraph observations near the Sun and in-situ observations near Earth. The depth of the geomagnetic storm is consistent with the 1-AU speed of the CME and the magnitude of the southward component.

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arXiv2018

Extreme Kinematics of the 2017 September 10 Solar Eruption and the Spectral Characteristics of the Associated Energetic Particles

We report on the 2017 September 10 ground level enhancement (GLE) event associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME) whose initial acceleration (~9.1km s^-2) and initial speed (~4300 km/s) were among the highest observed in the SOHO era. The GLE event was of low intensity (~4.4% above background) and softer-than-average fluence spectrum. We suggest that poor connectivity (longitudinal and latitudinal) of the source to Earth compounded by the weaker ambient magnetic field contributed to these GLE properties. Events with similar high initial speed either lacked GLE association or had softer fluence spectra. The shock-formation height inferred from the metric type II burst was ~1.4 Rs, consistent with other GLE events. The shock height at solar particle release (SPR) was ~4.4+/-0.38 Rs, consistent with the parabolic relationship between the shock height at SPR and source longitude. At SPR, the eastern flank of the shock was observed in EUV projected on the disk near the longitudes magnetically connected to Earth: W60 to W45.

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arXiv2018

Long-term Solar Activity Studies using Microwave Imaging Observations and Prediction for Cycle 25

We use microwave imaging observations from the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz for long-term studies of solar activity. In particular, we use the polar and low-latitude brightness temperatures as proxies to the polar magnetic field and the active-regions, respectively. We also use the location of prominence eruptions as a proxy to the filament locations as a function of time. We show that the polar microwave brightness temperature is highly correlated with the polar magnetic field strength and the fast solar wind speed. We also show that the polar microwave brightness at one cycle is correlated with the low latitude brightness with a lag of about half a solar cycle. We use this correlation to predict the strength of the solar cycle: the smoothed sunspot numbers in the southern and northern hemispheres can be predicted as 89 and 59, respectively. These values indicate that cycle 25 will not be too different from cycle 24 in its strength. We also combined the rush to the pole data from Nobeyama prominences with historical data going back to 1860 to study the north-south asymmetry of sign reversal at solar poles. We find that the reversal asymmetry has a quasi-periodicity of 3-5 cycles.

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arXiv2015

Large Solar Energetic Particle Events Associated with Filament Eruptions Outside of Active Regions

We report on four large filament eruptions (FEs) from solar cycles 23 and 24 that were associated with large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and interplanetary type II radio bursts. The post-eruption arcades corresponded to mostly C-class soft X-ray enhancements, but an M1.0 flare was associated with one event. However, the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were fast (speeds about 1000 km/s) and appeared as halo CMEs in the coronagraph field of view. The interplanetary type II radio bursts occurred over a wide wavelength range indicating the existence of strong shocks throughout the inner heliosphere. No metric type II bursts were present in three events, indicating that the shocks formed beyond 2 to 3 Rs. In one case, there was a metric type II burst with low starting frequency indicating a shock formation height of about 2 Rs. The FE-associated SEP events did have softer spectra (spectral index greater than 4) in the 10 to 100 MeV range, but there were other low-intensity SEP events with spectral indices >/=4. Some of these events are likely FE-SEP events, but were not classified so in the literature because they occurred close to active regions. Some were definitely associated with large active region flares, but the shock formation height was large. We definitely find a diminished role for flares and complex type III burst durations in these large SEP events. Fast CMEs and shock formation at larger distances from the Sun seem to be the primary characteristics of the FE-associated SEP events.

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arXiv2014

Major Solar Eruptions and High Energy Particle Events during Solar Cycle 24

We report on a study of all major solar eruptions that occurred on the front-side of the Sun during the rise to peak phase of cycle 24 (first 62 months) in order to understand the key factors affecting the occurrence of large solar energetic particle events (SEPs) and the ground levels enhancement (GLE) events. The eruptions involve major flares with soft X-ray peak flux >/= 5.0 x10-5 Wm-2 (i.e., flare size >/= M5.0) and accompanying coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The selection criterion was based on the fact that the only front-side GLE in cycle 24 (GLE 71) had a flare size of M5.1. Only ~37% of the major eruptions from the western hemisphere resulted in large SEP events. Almost the same number of large SEP events was produced in weaker eruptions (flare size <M5.0), suggesting that the soft X-ray flare is not a good indicator of SEP or GLE events. On the other hand, the CME speed is a better indicator of SEP and GLE events because it is consistently high supporting the shock acceleration mechanism for SEPs and GLEs. We found the CME speed, magnetic connectivity to Earth, and ambient conditions as the main factors that contribute to the lack of high energy particle events during cycle 24. Several eruptions poorly connected to Earth (eastern-hemisphere or behind-the-west-limb events) resulted in very large SEP events detected by the STEREO spacecraft. Some very fast CMEs, likely to have accelerated particles to GeV energies, did not result in a GLE event because of poor latitudinal connectivity. The stringent latitudinal requirement suggests that the highest energy particles are likely accelerated in the nose part of shocks. There were also well-connected fast CMEs, which did not seem to have accelerated high energy particles due to possible unfavorable ambient conditions (high Alfven speed, overall reduction in acceleration efficiency in cycle 24).

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arXiv2014

Ground Level Enhancement in the 2014 January 6 Solar Energetic Particle Event

We present a study of the 2014 January 6 solar energetic particle (SEP) event, which produced a small ground level enhancement (GLE), making it the second GLE of this unusual solar cycle 24. This event was primarily observed by the South Pole neutron monitors (increase of ~2.5%) whereas a few other neutron monitors recorded smaller increases. The associated coronal mass ejection (CME) originated behind the western limb and had the speed of 1960 km/s. The height of the CME at the start of the associated metric type II radio burst, which indicates the formation of a strong shock, was measured to be 1.61 Rs using a direct image from STEREO-A/EUVI. The CME height at the time of GLE particle release (determined using the South Pole neutron monitor data) was directly measured as 2.96 Rs, from the STEREO-A/COR1 white-light observations. These CME heights are consistent with those obtained for the GLE71, the only other GLE of the current cycle as well as cycle-23 GLEs derived using back-extrapolation. GLE72 is of special interest because it is one of the only two GLEs of cycle 24, one of the two behind-the-limb GLEs and one of the two smallest GLEs of cycles 23 and 24.

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arXiv2013

A Multiwavelength Study of Eruptive Events on January 23, 2012 Associated with a Major Solar Energetic Particle Event

We use multiwavelength data from space and ground based instruments to study the solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on January 23, 2012 that were responsible for one of the largest solar energetic particle (SEP) events of solar cycle 24. The eruptions consisting of two fast CMEs (1400 km/s and 2000 km/s) and M-class flares that occurred in active region 11402 located at N28 W36. The two CMEs occurred in quick successions, so they interacted very close to the Sun. The second CME caught up with the first one at a distance of 11-12 Rsun. The CME interaction may be responsible for the elevated SEP flux and significant changes in the intensity profile of the SEP event. The compound CME resulted in a double-dip moderate geomagnetic storm (Dst = -73 nT). The two dips are due to the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field in the shock sheath and the ICME intervals. One possible reason for the lack of a stronger geomagnetic storm may be that the ICME delivered a glancing blow to Earth.

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arXiv2012

Radio-loud CMEs from the disk center lacking shocks at 1 AU

A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a type II burst and originating close to the center of the solar disk typically results in a shock at Earth in 2-3 days and hence can be used to predict shock arrival at Earth. However, a significant fraction (about 28%) of such CMEs producing type II bursts were not associated with shocks at Earth. We examined a set of 21 type II bursts observed by the Wind/WAVES experiment at decameter-hectometric (DH) wavelengths that had CME sources very close to the disk center (within a central meridian distance of 30 degrees), but did not have a shock at Earth. We find that the near-Sun speeds of these CMEs average to ~644 km/s, only slightly higher than the average speed of CMEs associated with radio-quiet shocks. However, the fraction of halo CMEs is only ~30%, compared to 54% for the radio-quiet shocks and 91% for all radio-loud shocks. We conclude that the disk-center radio-loud CMEs with no shocks at 1 AU are generally of lower energy and they drive shocks only close to the Sun and dissipate before arriving at Earth. There is also evidence for other possible processes that lead to the lack of shock at 1 AU: (i) overtaking CME shocks merge and one observes a single shock at Earth, and (ii) deflection by nearby coronal holes can push the shocks away from the Sun-Earth line, such that Earth misses these shocks. The probability of observing a shock at 1 AU increases rapidly above 60% when the CME speed exceeds 1000 km/s and when the type II bursts propagate to frequencies below 1 MHz.

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arXiv2009

Interplanetary shocks lacking type II radio bursts

We report on the radio-emission characteristics of 222 interplanetary (IP) shocks. A surprisingly large fraction of the IP shocks (~34%) is radio quiet (i.e., the shocks lacked type II radio bursts). The CMEs associated with the RQ shocks are generally slow (average speed ~535 km/s) and only ~40% of the CMEs were halos. The corresponding numbers for CMEs associated with radio loud (RL) shocks are 1237 km/s and 72%, respectively. The RQ shocks are also accompanied by lower peak soft X-ray flux. CMEs associated with RQ (RL) shocks are generally accelerating (decelerating). The kinematics of CMEs associated with the km type II bursts is similar to those of RQ shocks, except that the former are slightly more energetic. Comparison of the shock The RQ shocks seem to be mostly subcritical and quasi-perpendicular. The radio-quietness is predominant in the rise phase and decreases through the maximum and declining phases of solar cycle 23. The solar sources of the shock-driving CMEs follow the sunspot butterfly diagram, consistent with the higher-energy requirement for driving shocks.

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arXiv2009

Coronal Mass Ejections from Sunspot and non-Sunspot Regions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originate from closed magnetic field regions on the Sun, which are active regions and quiescent filament regions. The energetic populations such as halo CMEs, CMEs associated with magnetic clouds, geoeffective CMEs, CMEs associated with solar energetic particles and interplanetary type II radio bursts, and shock-driving CMEs have been found to originate from sunspot regions. The CME and flare occurrence rates are found to be correlated with the sunspot number, but the correlations are significantly weaker during the maximum phase compared to the rise and declining phases. We suggest that the weaker correlation results from high-latitude CMEs from the polar crown filament regions that are not related to sunspots.

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