arXiv subjects

Pedro Gutiérrez

Publications and source records attributed to Pedro Gutiérrez.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Uncertainty estimation of incoming comet trajectories with a thermophysical non-gravitational force model for Comet Interceptor encounter planning

The European Space Agency Comet Interceptor mission is designed to fly-by an as-yet undetermined incoming long-period or dynamically-new comet, which will require an accurate prediction of its trajectory. Cometary orbits are perturbed from purely gravitational trajectories by non-gravitational accelerations (NGAs) stemming from their outgassing, however, and these must be taken into account in the navigation. We here test the ability of ground-based astrometry and standard NGA-fitting techniques to predict the position and velocity of incoming comets perturbed by a Monte Carlo sampled thermophysical acceleration model. We find that, due to the difficulties of predicting NGA evolution as well as the limitations of reasonably simulated astrometry, predicted accuracies are unlikely to meet the mission goals of 1000 km and 1 m s$^{-1}$ in position and velocity, sixty days before intercept. We instead recommend expanded uncertainties of $10,000$ km and several m s$^{-1}$. Our NGA fits struggle to reproduce the reference accelerations and trajectories when outgassing is rising steeply at a few AU-incoming, but with more observations up until perihelion, do eventually converge, leading to good estimates of many of the underlying acceleration parameters even for half an orbital arc.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Towards a coupled activity-fallback model for comets I) 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko's water activity from a microphysics model with dynamic dust-depth

We apply a two-layer thermophysical model, with water sublimating from below a dust-crust with dynamically varying depth, to simulate the water outgassing rate, dust-ejections, and non-gravitational forces and torques of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The dust-depth is determined at each time-step by the balance of dehydration and subsurface pressure, leading to alternating ejections and crust build-up. This model is the first stage of implementing a fully coupled activity-fallback model that self-consistently incorporates dust-fallback into the ejection depth calculation, but already a number of conclusions can be drawn from these results. The two-layer model with only dehydration and ejections is able to reproduce much of the Rosetta outgassing, dust-ejection data and non-gravitational dynamics, particularly in the comet's more primitive southern terrain. Best agreement is found for nucleus material made up of small aggregates ($d_{agg}\sim1$ mm) with not-too-high dust-to-ice ratios ($δ\sim2-8$) and low average strengths ($\lesssim1$ Pa) that decreases with depth. Disagreements between the observations and model are greatest for the northern-facing and dust-covered terrains, suggesting the importance of surface modification by fallback and material processing here, which will be the subject of investigation in the next paper.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Constraints on the ejecting-crust activity model on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Reproducing the observed activity of comets with thermophysical models remains a primary challenge of cometary science. We use a pebble-based thermophysical model of gas-pressure build-up in the subsurface to reproduce the global emission rates of dust, water, CO$_{2}$, and CO observed by Rosetta at comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (hereafter 67P). For sufficiently low diffusivities, the low tensile strength is overcome, leading to the ejection of $\sim$ millimetre- to decimetre-sized dust-particles as well as roughly the correct outgassing rates. All the ejections, and thus the bulk of the outgassing, come from the southern hemisphere during the time that it is strongly illuminated at perihelion. This leads to a 'blow-off' of the dust-crust that otherwise forms: volatiles are much closer to the surface in the south (within the top centimetre) than in the north (10-or-more cm deep), naturally explaining the strong southern water-outgassing expected from 67P's non-gravitational accelerations and torques. We find that low gas-diffusivity, as well as large heat-capacity and steeply decreasing tensile strength with depth or ice-content, are in best agreement with the outgassing data. However, even in these cases, we struggle not to exceed the observed emission rates of dust, CO$_{2}$, and CO. In the south, it is difficult for models to achieve a balance between triggering activity and generating too much of it (with CO$_{2}$ the critical driving-species here); while in the north, it remains challenging to generate activity at all. Strong constraints are placed on the nature of the activity mechanism by the location of dust-ejection and erosion.

astro-ph.EP↗