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Pengtao Xie

Publications and source records attributed to Pengtao Xie.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

What Matters, When? Diagnosing and Improving Conditional Visual Grounding in Visuomotor Imitation Policies

Visuomotor imitation policies can achieve high performance under in-distribution visual conditions yet fail when visually similar objects or receptacles are introduced. We study this behavior as a problem of conditional visual grounding: the visual target required for successful control changes with the manipulation phase and, in more complex tasks, with the observed task state. Using Action Chunking with Transformers (ACT), we systematically introduce distractor objects and receptacles with controlled color and shape similarity and localize failures to picking and placement. We find that distractor sensitivity is specific to both the type of visual similarity and the manipulation stage. Guided by this diagnosis, we evaluate distractor augmentation, phase-dependent attention regularization, and appearance-based visual prompting as complementary interventions for improving target selection while preserving spatial information required for control. These interventions substantially improve robustness in simulation and on a physical UR3e. We further examine the same failure pattern in a pretrained vision-language-action policy on a state-conditioned instrument-handling task, where the observed state of a medical instrument determines the correct destination. Together, the results show that visual distractors can cause incorrect object or destination selection even when the underlying manipulation skill remains intact, and that explicitly improving target selection can substantially recover performance across distinct visuomotor policy-learning regimes.

cs.RO

Can LLMs Take the Pulse of the Economy? A Real-Time Evaluation of LLM Nowcasts on Macroeconomic Indicators

Nowcasting headline macroeconomic indicators, i.e., estimating an indicator's value for the current reference period before its official release, is critical for monetary policy and financial markets, and central banks devote dedicated teams of expert economists to producing such estimates. Large language model (LLM) agents are a promising candidate for this task, combining broad world knowledge with real-time web search and supporting queries at higher frequency than institutional nowcasts. Evaluating their nowcasting capability is, however, challenging: headline indicators such as GDP and CPI are widely reported and likely memorized during pretraining, so any evaluation on historical releases is vulnerable to data contamination. To address this, we introduce LiveMacroEval, a live, contamination-resistant benchmark in which LLM agents produce hourly nowcasts for sixteen major U.S. macroeconomic indicators over a pre-release window closing at each official release. Nowcast quality is assessed through a LiveMacro Score against announcement-window equity returns and a LiveBetting Score from simulated Polymarket-style trading, with Federal Reserve regional-bank nowcasts, the Bloomberg ECOS professional consensus, and an auto-ARIMA baseline as comparators. Over six months with four state-of-the-art LLM agents configured with web search, aggregate nowcast accuracy is broadly comparable to the institutional and professional benchmarks, with performance varying widely across individual indicators. This highlights LLM agents' potential as real-time estimators of macroeconomic conditions.

cs.CL