arXiv subjects

Philipp Singer

Publications and source records attributed to Philipp Singer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Advancing Open and Reproducible Relational Learning: RelArena-$\alpha$, TabPFN-Rel and RPI

This first release of Prior Labs in relational learning shows our continued commitment to open science. We open-source three pieces of software that we expect to accelerate research in the field towards meaningful real-world impact. We aim to steer further development based on feedback from, and in collaboration with, the community. Given the early stage of development, our $\alpha$-release targets researchers and early-adopting practitioners. Over the past years, a variety of datasets and tasks for relational learning have emerged, but the community has not converged on a reliable, reproducible way to compare different methods on these tasks. Our $\alpha$-release, RelArena-$\alpha$, provides a unified framework for running and comparing baselines on RelBench v1 by standardizing data loading, evaluation protocols, tuning regimes, and support for systems with custom tuning, inspired by established tabular benchmarks such as TabArena. We plan to work with the research community to further develop RelArena-$\alpha$ into a catalyst for progress in the relational learning community. We release the initial version of TabPFN-Rel, a purpose-built relational harness for TabPFN-3. Currently ranked first among models on RelArena-$\alpha$, TabPFN-Rel makes key improvements upon RDBLearn. Beyond its ranking, TabPFN-Rel serves as a strong baseline, adding to the growing evidence that flattening a relational database into a single table remains competitive with specialized relational architectures on real-world tasks. To facilitate adoption of relational learning methods in research and industry, we release an initial $\alpha$-version of our Relational Predictive Interface, RPI, an open-source, model-agnostic interface that enables early adopters to easily define problems on new databases and apply any model implemented in RelArena-$\alpha$, including TabPFN-Rel, to these problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TabPFN-3: Technical Report

Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

H2O-Danube3 Technical Report

We present H2O-Danube3, a series of small language models consisting of H2O-Danube3-4B, trained on 6T tokens and H2O-Danube3-500M, trained on 4T tokens. Our models are pre-trained on high quality Web data consisting of primarily English tokens in three stages with different data mixes before final supervised tuning for chat version. The models exhibit highly competitive metrics across a multitude of academic, chat, and fine-tuning benchmarks. Thanks to its compact architecture, H2O-Danube3 can be efficiently run on a modern smartphone, enabling local inference and rapid processing capabilities even on mobile devices. We make all models openly available under Apache 2.0 license further democratizing LLMs to a wider audience economically.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

H2O-Danube-1.8B Technical Report

We present H2O-Danube, a series of small 1.8B language models consisting of H2O-Danube-1.8B, trained on 1T tokens, and the incremental improved H2O-Danube2-1.8B trained on an additional 2T tokens. Our models exhibit highly competitive metrics across a multitude of benchmarks and, as of the time of this writing, H2O-Danube2-1.8B achieves the top ranking on Open LLM Leaderboard for all models below the 2B parameter range. The models follow core principles of LLama 2 and Mistral, and we leverage and refine various techniques for pre-training large language models. We additionally release chat models trained with supervised fine-tuning followed by direct preference optimization. We make all models openly available under Apache 2.0 license further democratizing LLMs to a wider audience economically.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

H2O Open Ecosystem for State-of-the-art Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) represent a revolution in AI. However, they also pose many significant risks, such as the presence of biased, private, copyrighted or harmful text. For this reason we need open, transparent and safe solutions. We introduce a complete open-source ecosystem for developing and testing LLMs. The goal of this project is to boost open alternatives to closed-source approaches. We release h2oGPT, a family of fine-tuned LLMs of diverse sizes. We also introduce H2O LLM Studio, a framework and no-code GUI designed for efficient fine-tuning, evaluation, and deployment of LLMs using the most recent state-of-the-art techniques. Our code and models are fully open-source. We believe this work helps to boost AI development and make it more accessible, efficient and trustworthy. The demo is available at: https://gpt.h2o.ai/

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

h2oGPT: Democratizing Large Language Models

Applications built on top of Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-4 represent a revolution in AI due to their human-level capabilities in natural language processing. However, they also pose many significant risks such as the presence of biased, private, or harmful text, and the unauthorized inclusion of copyrighted material. We introduce h2oGPT, a suite of open-source code repositories for the creation and use of LLMs based on Generative Pretrained Transformers (GPTs). The goal of this project is to create the world's best truly open-source alternative to closed-source approaches. In collaboration with and as part of the incredible and unstoppable open-source community, we open-source several fine-tuned h2oGPT models from 7 to 40 Billion parameters, ready for commercial use under fully permissive Apache 2.0 licenses. Included in our release is 100\% private document search using natural language. Open-source language models help boost AI development and make it more accessible and trustworthy. They lower entry hurdles, allowing people and groups to tailor these models to their needs. This openness increases innovation, transparency, and fairness. An open-source strategy is needed to share AI benefits fairly, and H2O.ai will continue to democratize AI and LLMs.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Recognizing bird species in diverse soundscapes under weak supervision

We present a robust classification approach for avian vocalization in complex and diverse soundscapes, achieving second place in the BirdCLEF2021 challenge. We illustrate how to make full use of pre-trained convolutional neural networks, by using an efficient modeling and training routine supplemented by novel augmentation methods. Thereby, we improve the generalization of weakly labeled crowd-sourced data to productive data collected by autonomous recording units. As such, we illustrate how to progress towards an accurate automated assessment of avian population which would enable global biodiversity monitoring at scale, impossible by manual annotation.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2020

Supporting large-scale image recognition with out-of-domain samples

This article presents an efficient end-to-end method to perform instance-level recognition employed to the task of labeling and ranking landmark images. In a first step, we embed images in a high dimensional feature space using convolutional neural networks trained with an additive angular margin loss and classify images using visual similarity. We then efficiently re-rank predictions and filter noise utilizing similarity to out-of-domain images. Using this approach we achieved the 1st place in the 2020 edition of the Google Landmark Recognition challenge.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Backtesting the predictability of COVID-19

The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions amongst the population. In response, the academic community has produced multiple forecasting models, approaches and algorithms to best predict the different indicators of COVID-19, such as the number of confirmed infected cases. Yet, researchers had little to no historical information about the pandemic at their disposal in order to inform their forecasting methods. Our work studies the predictive performance of models at various stages of the pandemic to better understand their fundamental uncertainty and the impact of data availability on such forecasts. We use historical data of COVID-19 infections from 253 regions from the period of 22nd January 2020 until 22nd June 2020 to predict, through a rolling window backtesting framework, the cumulative number of infected cases for the next 7 and 28 days. We implement three simple models to track the root mean squared logarithmic error in this 6-month span, a baseline model that always predicts the last known value of the cumulative confirmed cases, a power growth model and an epidemiological model called SEIRD. Prediction errors are substantially higher in early stages of the pandemic, resulting from limited data. Throughout the course of the pandemic, errors regress slowly, but steadily. The more confirmed cases a country exhibits at any point in time, the lower the error in forecasting future confirmed cases. We emphasize the significance of having a rigorous backtesting framework to accurately assess the predictive power of such models at any point in time during the outbreak which in turn can be used to assign the right level of certainty to these forecasts and facilitate better planning.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Sampling from Social Networks with Attributes

Sampling from large networks represents a fundamental challenge for social network research. In this paper, we explore the sensitivity of different sampling techniques (node sampling, edge sampling, random walk sampling, and snowball sampling) on social networks with attributes. We consider the special case of networks (i) where we have one attribute with two values (e.g., male and female in the case of gender), (ii) where the size of the two groups is unequal (e.g., a male majority and a female minority), and (iii) where nodes with the same or different attribute value attract or repel each other (i.e., homophilic or heterophilic behavior). We evaluate the different sampling techniques with respect to conserving the position of nodes and the visibility of groups in such networks. Experiments are conducted both on synthetic and empirical social networks. Our results provide evidence that different network sampling techniques are highly sensitive with regard to capturing the expected centrality of nodes, and that their accuracy depends on relative group size differences and on the level of homophily that can be observed in the network. We conclude that uninformed sampling from social networks with attributes thus can significantly impair the ability of researchers to draw valid conclusions about the centrality of nodes and the visibility or invisibility of groups in social networks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Why We Read Wikipedia

Wikipedia is one of the most popular sites on the Web, with millions of users relying on it to satisfy a broad range of information needs every day. Although it is crucial to understand what exactly these needs are in order to be able to meet them, little is currently known about why users visit Wikipedia. The goal of this paper is to fill this gap by combining a survey of Wikipedia readers with a log-based analysis of user activity. Based on an initial series of user surveys, we build a taxonomy of Wikipedia use cases along several dimensions, capturing users' motivations to visit Wikipedia, the depth of knowledge they are seeking, and their knowledge of the topic of interest prior to visiting Wikipedia. Then, we quantify the prevalence of these use cases via a large-scale user survey conducted on live Wikipedia with almost 30,000 responses. Our analyses highlight the variety of factors driving users to Wikipedia, such as current events, media coverage of a topic, personal curiosity, work or school assignments, or boredom. Finally, we match survey responses to the respondents' digital traces in Wikipedia's server logs, enabling the discovery of behavioral patterns associated with specific use cases. For instance, we observe long and fast-paced page sequences across topics for users who are bored or exploring randomly, whereas those using Wikipedia for work or school spend more time on individual articles focused on topics such as science. Our findings advance our understanding of reader motivations and behavior on Wikipedia and can have implications for developers aiming to improve Wikipedia's user experience, editors striving to cater to their readers' needs, third-party services (such as search engines) providing access to Wikipedia content, and researchers aiming to build tools such as recommendation engines.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Visibility of minorities in social networks

Homophily can put minority groups at a disadvantage by restricting their ability to establish links with people from a majority group. This can limit the overall visibility of minorities in the network. Building on a Barab\'{a}si-Albert model variation with groups and homophily, we show how the visibility of minority groups in social networks is a function of (i) their relative group size and (ii) the presence or absence of homophilic behavior. We provide an analytical solution for this problem and demonstrate the existence of asymmetric behavior. Finally, we study the visibility of minority groups in examples of real-world social networks: sexual contacts, scientific collaboration, and scientific citation. Our work presents a foundation for assessing the visibility of minority groups in social networks in which homophilic or heterophilic behaviour is present.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

MixedTrails: Bayesian hypothesis comparison on heterogeneous sequential data

Sequential traces of user data are frequently observed online and offline, e.g., as sequences of visited websites or as sequences of locations captured by GPS. However, understanding factors explaining the production of sequence data is a challenging task, especially since the data generation is often not homogeneous. For example, navigation behavior might change in different phases of browsing a website, or movement behavior may vary between groups of users. In this work, we tackle this task and propose MixedTrails, a Bayesian approach for comparing the plausibility of hypotheses regarding the generative processes of heterogeneous sequence data. Each hypothesis is derived from existing literature, theory or intuition and represents a belief about transition probabilities between a set of states that can vary between groups of observed transitions. For example, when trying to understand human movement in a city and given some observed data, a hypothesis assuming tourists to be more likely to move towards points of interests than locals, can be shown to be more plausible than a hypothesis assuming the opposite. Our approach incorporates such hypotheses as Bayesian priors in a generative mixed transition Markov chain model, and compares their plausibility utilizing Bayes factors. We discuss analytical and approximate inference methods for calculating the marginal likelihoods for Bayes factors, give guidance on interpreting the results, and illustrate our approach with several experiments on synthetic and empirical data from Wikipedia and Flickr. Thus, this work enables a novel kind of analysis for studying sequential data in many application areas.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

What Makes a Link Successful on Wikipedia?

While a plethora of hypertext links exist on the Web, only a small amount of them are regularly clicked. Starting from this observation, we set out to study large-scale click data from Wikipedia in order to understand what makes a link successful. We systematically analyze effects of link properties on the popularity of links. By utilizing mixed-effects hurdle models supplemented with descriptive insights, we find evidence of user preference towards links leading to the periphery of the network, towards links leading to semantically similar articles, and towards links in the top and left-side of the screen. We integrate these findings as Bayesian priors into a navigational Markov chain model and by doing so successfully improve the model fits. We further adapt and improve the well-known classic PageRank algorithm that assumes random navigation by accounting for observed navigational preferences of users in a weighted variation. This work facilitates understanding navigational click behavior and thus can contribute to improving link structures and algorithms utilizing these structures.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Evidence of Online Performance Deterioration in User Sessions on Reddit

This article presents evidence of performance deterioration in online user sessions quantified by studying a massive dataset containing over 55 million comments posted on Reddit in April 2015. After segmenting the sessions (i.e., periods of activity without a prolonged break) depending on their intensity (i.e., how many posts users produced during sessions), we observe a general decrease in the quality of comments produced by users over the course of sessions. We propose mixed-effects models that capture the impact of session intensity on comments, including their length, quality, and the responses they generate from the community. Our findings suggest performance deterioration: Sessions of increasing intensity are associated with the production of shorter, progressively less complex comments, which receive declining quality scores (as rated by other users), and are less and less engaging (i.e., they attract fewer responses). Our contribution evokes a connection between cognitive and attention dynamics and the usage of online social peer production platforms, specifically the effects of deterioration of user performance.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Discovering and Characterizing Mobility Patterns in Urban Spaces: A Study of Manhattan Taxi Data

Nowadays, human movement in urban spaces can be traced digitally in many cases. It can be observed that movement patterns are not constant, but vary across time and space. In this work,we characterize such spatio-temporal patterns with an innovative combination of two separate approaches that have been utilized for studying human mobility in the past. First, by using non-negative tensor factorization (NTF), we are able to cluster human behavior based on spatio-temporal dimensions. Second, for understanding these clusters, we propose to use HypTrails, a Bayesian approach for expressing and comparing hypotheses about human trails. To formalize hypotheses we utilize data that is publicly available on the Web, namely Foursquare data and census data provided by an open data platform. By applying this combination of approaches to taxi data in Manhattan, we can discover and explain different patterns in human mobility that cannot be identified in a collective analysis. As one example, we can find a group of taxi rides that end at locations with a high number of party venues (according to Foursquare) on weekend nights. Overall, our work demonstrates that human mobility is not one-dimensional but rather contains different facets both in time and space which we explain by utilizing online data. The findings of this paper argue for a more fine-grained analysis of human mobility in order to make more informed decisions for e.g., enhancing urban structures, tailored traffic control and location-based recommender systems.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

HypTrails: A Bayesian Approach for Comparing Hypotheses About Human Trails on the Web

When users interact with the Web today, they leave sequential digital trails on a massive scale. Examples of such human trails include Web navigation, sequences of online restaurant reviews, or online music play lists. Understanding the factors that drive the production of these trails can be useful for e.g., improving underlying network structures, predicting user clicks or enhancing recommendations. In this work, we present a general approach called HypTrails for comparing a set of hypotheses about human trails on the Web, where hypotheses represent beliefs about transitions between states. Our approach utilizes Markov chain models with Bayesian inference. The main idea is to incorporate hypotheses as informative Dirichlet priors and to leverage the sensitivity of Bayes factors on the prior for comparing hypotheses with each other. For eliciting Dirichlet priors from hypotheses, we present an adaption of the so-called (trial) roulette method. We demonstrate the general mechanics and applicability of HypTrails by performing experiments with (i) synthetic trails for which we control the mechanisms that have produced them and (ii) empirical trails stemming from different domains including website navigation, business reviews and online music played. Our work expands the repertoire of methods available for studying human trails on the Web.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Discovering Beaten Paths in Collaborative Ontology-Engineering Projects using Markov Chains

Biomedical taxonomies, thesauri and ontologies in the form of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) as a taxonomy or the National Cancer Institute Thesaurus as an OWL-based ontology, play a critical role in acquiring, representing and processing information about human health. With increasing adoption and relevance, biomedical ontologies have also significantly increased in size. For example, the 11th revision of the ICD, which is currently under active development by the WHO contains nearly 50,000 classes representing a vast variety of different diseases and causes of death. This evolution in terms of size was accompanied by an evolution in the way ontologies are engineered. Because no single individual has the expertise to develop such large-scale ontologies, ontology-engineering projects have evolved from small-scale efforts involving just a few domain experts to large-scale projects that require effective collaboration between dozens or even hundreds of experts, practitioners and other stakeholders. Understanding how these stakeholders collaborate will enable us to improve editing environments that support such collaborations. We uncover how large ontology-engineering projects, such as the ICD in its 11th revision, unfold by analyzing usage logs of five different biomedical ontology-engineering projects of varying sizes and scopes using Markov chains. We discover intriguing interaction patterns (e.g., which properties users subsequently change) that suggest that large collaborative ontology-engineering projects are governed by a few general principles that determine and drive development. From our analysis, we identify commonalities and differences between different projects that have implications for project managers, ontology editors, developers and contributors working on collaborative ontology-engineering projects and tools in the biomedical domain.

cs.SI↗