Remco A. Verzijlbergh | Search arXiv

arXiv2026

Wake effects in a 100 GW North Sea offshore wind scenario: a model intercomparison under year-round weather conditions

Large-scale offshore wind development will intensify wake interactions between wind farm clusters in the North Sea, increasing uncertainty in regional energy estimates. We assess HARMONIE-AROME mesoscale simulations, ASPIRE large-eddy simulations (LES), and three engineering wake models based on Jensen, Bastankhah Gaussian, and TurbOPark formulations for a 100.7 GW 2050 offshore wind scenario. We find that LES and mesoscale simulations accurately represent observed local free-stream wind conditions. Moreover, all engineering wake models predict higher mean wind speeds than LES in every month, with biases reaching 0.60-0.70 m/s at 10-40 km downstream. These differences also vary systematically with atmospheric regime: the Bastankhah Gaussian model remains positively biased across wind speed and stability conditions, whereas Jensen and TurbOPark shift from underprediction in unstable and near-neutral conditions to overprediction in stable conditions at 8-12 m/s. These results show that agreement in annual capacity factor can conceal substantial differences across space, time, and atmospheric regime, highlighting the importance of including sensitivity to model formulation in regional wind energy assessments.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2022

An energy system model for mixed bilateral and pool markets

Investments into renewable energy are increasing rapidly around the world. Energy system models are able to provide insights into optimal investment capacities and thus are widely used to aid the long-term investment decision-making under an electricity market environment. Existing energy system models, however, fail to consider bilateral electricity markets while in reality, these constitute a major part of all energy trades. In this paper, we propose an improved energy system model that endogenously considers mixed bilateral and pool markets. In this model, we also introduce three externality cost items that account for the social cost of technologies, carbon taxes/renewable energy subsidies, and the bilateral product differentiation in the bilateral market, respectively. We start with an equilibrium problem formulation for different market players and next, an equivalent optimization problem is presented. Then, a case study of the pan-European market to reach 95\% emission reduction in 2050 is conducted to demonstrate the model. Different scenarios are constructed to showcase two different usages of product differentiation in the bilateral market, i.e., willingness to pay and exogenous costs. Our main conclusion is that the inclusion of mixed bilateral and pool markets into our enriched energy system model significantly changed the optimal investment capacities, compared to benchmark results from the existing, conventional energy system model. This shows that the inclusion of the bilateral market is of key importance in future investment considerations. Our model is the first of its kind to include this important and realistic bilateral market in energy system models.

math.OC↗