arXiv subjects

Robin Engelhardt

Publications and source records attributed to Robin Engelhardt.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2020

The Curse of Shared Knowledge: Recursive Belief Reasoning in a Coordination Game with Imperfect Information

Common knowledge is crucial for safe group coordination. In its absence, humans must rely on shared knowledge, which is inherently limited in depth and therefore prone to coordination failures, because any finite-order knowledge attribution allows for an even higher order attribution that may change what is known by whom. In three separate experiments involving 802 participants, we investigate the extent to which humans can differentiate between common knowledge and nth-order shared knowledge. We designed a two-person coordination game with imperfect information to simplify the recursive game structure and higher-order uncertainties into a relatable everyday scenario. In this game, coordination for the highest payoff requires a specific fact to be common knowledge between players. However, this fact cannot become common knowledge in the game. The fact can at most be nth-order shared knowledge for some n. Our findings reveal that even at quite shallow depths of shared knowledge (low values of n), players behave as though they possess common knowledge, and claim similar levels of certainty in their actions, despite incurring significant penalties when falsely assuming guaranteed coordination. We term this phenomenon 'the curse of shared knowledge'. It arises either from the players' inability to distinguish between higher-order shared knowledge and common knowledge, or from their implicit assumption that their co-player cannot make this distinction.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2020

The Wisdom and Persuadability of Threads

Online discussion threads are important means for individual decision-making and for aggregating collective judgments, e.g. the `wisdom of crowds'. Empirical investigations of the wisdom of crowds are currently ambivalent about the role played by social information. While some findings suggest that social information undermines crowd accuracy due to correlated judgment errors, others show that accuracy improves. We investigate experimentally the accuracy of threads in which participants make magnitude estimates of varying difficulty while seeing a varying number of previous estimates. We demonstrate that, for difficult tasks, seeing preceding estimates aids the wisdom of crowds. If, however, participants only see extreme estimates, wisdom quickly turns into folly. Using a Gaussian Mixture Model, we assign a persuadability score to each participant and show that persuadability increases with task difficulty and with the amount of social information provided. In filtered threads, we see an increasing gap between highly persuadable participants and skeptics.

cs.SI↗

arXiv1997

Effects of neutral selection on the evolution of molecular species

We introduce a new model of evolution on a fitness landscape possessing a tunable degree of neutrality. The model allows us to study the general properties of molecular species undergoing neutral evolution. We find that a number of phenomena seen in RNA sequence-structure maps are present also in our general model. Examples are the occurrence of "common" structures which occupy a fraction of the genotype space which tends to unity as the length of the genotype increases, and the formation of percolating neutral networks which cover the genotype space in such a way that a member of such a network can be found within a small radius of any point in the space. We also describe a number of new phenomena which appear to be general properties of neutrally evolving systems. In particular, we show that the maximum fitness attained during the adaptive walk of a population evolving on such a fitness landscape increases with increasing degree of neutrality, and is directly related to the fitness of the most fit percolating network.

adap-org↗