arXiv subjects

Roman Sultimov

Publications and source records attributed to Roman Sultimov.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

SteelAgent: LLM-Orchestrated, Physics-Informed Steel Property Prediction with Audited Generalization and Calibrated Uncertainty

Steel property models can perform well on random test splits even when they extrapolate poorly to unfamiliar alloys. SteelAgent couples metallurgical descriptors and machine-learning models with a language-model interface for property prediction, uncertainty reporting and inverse design. We examine how the choice of held-out unit changes the conclusions drawn from SteelBench tensile-strength evaluations. For gradient boosting, pooled out-of-fold $R^2$ fell from 0.859 on a random split to 0.113 when steel families were held out. Empirical coverage of nominal 90% prediction intervals ranged from 91.0% under random splitting to 37.6% on held-out sources. The effect of physics-derived features depended on the evaluation. They increased gradient-boosting $R^2$ by 0.2534 in a 17-family holdout analysis and decreased it by 0.358 in a separate four-grade laboratory analysis. We report group-level errors and a synthetic regression experiment illustrating how calibration can deteriorate on held-out groups. These results motivate reporting the evaluation population alongside a property estimate or compliance score.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Hierarchical AI-Meteorologist: LLM-Agent System for Multi-Scale and Explainable Weather Forecast Reporting

We present the Hierarchical AI-Meteorologist, an LLM-agent system that generates explainable weather reports using a hierarchical forecast reasoning and weather keyword generation. Unlike standard approaches that treat forecasts as flat time series, our framework performs multi-scale reasoning across hourly, 6-hour, and daily aggregations to capture both short-term dynamics and long-term trends. Its core reasoning agent converts structured meteorological inputs into coherent narratives while simultaneously extracting a few keywords effectively summarizing the dominant meteorological events. These keywords serve as semantic anchors for validating consistency, temporal coherence and factual alignment of the generated reports. Using OpenWeather and Meteostat data, we demonstrate that hierarchical context and keyword-based validation substantially improve interpretability and robustness of LLM-generated weather narratives, offering a reproducible framework for semantic evaluation of automated meteorological reporting and advancing agent-based scientific reasoning.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

A Modular LLM-Agent System for Transparent Multi-Parameter Weather Interpretation

Weather forecasting is not only a predictive task but an interpretive scientific process requiring explanation, contextualization, and hypothesis generation. This paper introduces AI-Meteorologist, an explainable LLM-agent framework that converts raw numerical forecasts into scientifically grounded narrative reports with transparent reasoning steps. Unlike conventional forecast outputs presented as dense tables or unstructured time series, our system performs agent-based analysis across multiple meteorological variables, integrates historical climatological context, and generates structured explanations that identify weather fronts, anomalies, and localized dynamics. The architecture relies entirely on in-context prompting, without fine-tuning, demonstrating that interpretability can be achieved through reasoning rather than parameter updates. Through case studies on multi-location forecast data, we show how AI-Meteorologist not only communicates weather events but also reveals the underlying atmospheric drivers, offering a pathway toward AI systems that augment human meteorological expertise and support scientific discovery in climate analytics.

cs.CY↗