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Ronald Yurko

Publications and source records attributed to Ronald Yurko.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

Analysis and Explainability of LLMs Via Evolutionary Methods

Evolutionary methods have long been useful for analysis and explanation in genetics, biology, ecology, and related fields. In this work, we extend these methods to neural networks, specifically large language models (LLMs), to better analyze and explain relationships among models. We show how relating weights to genotypes and output text to phenotypes can improve our understanding of model lineage, important datasets, the roles of different model layers, and visualization of model relationships. We demonstrate this in a controlled experiment, where our estimated evolutionary trees reliably recover the topology of the ground-truth training tree. We further identify the most important weight layers according to weight differences and show through phenotypic experiments that one training dataset appears to contribute more useful information than the others. Finally, we generate an unsupervised evolutionary tree of black-box foundation models. Throughout, we provide visualizations that support a clearer understanding of evolutionary relationships among LLMs.

cs.NE

Interpretable Stylistic Variation in Human and LLM Writing Across Genres, Models, and Decoding Strategies

Large Language Models (LLMs) are now capable of generating highly fluent, human-like text. They enable many applications, but also raise concerns such as large scale spam, phishing, or academic misuse. While much work has focused on detecting LLM-generated text, only limited work has gone into understanding the stylistic differences between human-written and machine-generated text. In this work, we perform a large scale analysis of stylistic variation across human-written text and outputs from 11 LLMs spanning 8 different genres and 4 decoding strategies using Douglas Biber's set of lexicogrammatical and functional features. Our findings reveal insights that can guide intentional LLM usage. First, key linguistic differentiators of LLM-generated text seem robust to generation conditions (e.g., prompt settings to nudge them to generate human-like text, or availability of human-written text to continue the style); second, genre exerts a stronger influence on stylistic features than the source itself; third, chat variants of the models generally appear to be clustered together in stylistic space, and finally, model has a larger effect on the style than decoding strategy, with some exceptions. These results highlight the relative importance of model and genre over prompting and decoding strategies in shaping the stylistic behavior of machine-generated text.

cs.CL

NFL step-and-turn: A generative framework for evaluating player movement in American football

In sports analytics, player tracking data have driven significant advancements in the task of player evaluation. We present a novel generative framework for evaluating the observed frame-by-frame player positioning against a distribution of hypothetical alternatives. We illustrate our approach by modeling the within-play movement of an individual ball carrier in the National Football League (NFL). Specifically, we develop Bayesian multilevel models for frame-level player movement based on two components: step length (distance between successive locations) and turn angle (change in direction between successive steps). Using the step-and-turn models, we perform posterior predictive simulation to generate hypothetical ball carrier steps at each frame during a play. This enables comparison of the observed player movement with a distribution of simulated alternatives using common valuation measures in American football. We apply our framework to tracking data from the first nine weeks of the 2022 NFL season and derive novel player performance metrics based on hypothetical evaluation.

stat.AP

A Bayesian circular mixed-effects model for explaining variability in directional movement in American football

Change of direction is a key element of player movement in American football, yet there remains a lack of objective approaches for in-game performance evaluation of this athletic trait. Using tracking data, we propose a Bayesian mixed-effects model with heterogeneous variances for assessing a player's ability to make variable directional adjustments while moving on the field. We model the turn angle (i.e., angle between successive displacement vectors) for NFL ball carriers on both passing and rushing plays, focusing on receivers after the catch and running backs after the handoff. In particular, we consider a von Mises distribution for the frame-level turn angle and explicitly model both the mean and concentration parameters with relevant spatiotemporal and contextual covariates. Of primary interest, we include player random effects that allow the turn angle concentration to vary by ball carrier nested within position groups. This offers practical insight into player evaluation, as it reveals the shiftiest ball carriers with great variability in turning behavior. We illustrate our approach with results from the first nine weeks of the 2022 NFL regular season and explore player-specific and positional differences in turn angle variability.

stat.AP

Swinging, Fast and Slow: Interpreting variation in baseball swing tracking metrics

In 2024, Major League Baseball released new bat tracking data, reporting swing-by-swing bat speed and swing length measured at the point of contact. While exciting, the data present challenges for their interpretation. The timing of the batter's swing relative to the pitch determines the point of measurement relative to the full swing path. The relationship between swing metrics and swing outcomes is confounded by the batter's pitch recognition. We introduce a framework for interpreting bat tracking data in which we first estimate the batter's intention conditional on ball-strike count and pitch location using a Bayesian hierarchical skew-normal model with random intercept and random slopes for batter. This yields batter-specific effects of count on swing metrics, which we leverage via instrumental variables regression to estimate causal effects of bat speed and swing length on contact and power outcomes. Finally, we valuate the tradeoff between contact and power due to bat speed by modeling a plate appearance as a Markov chain. We conclude that batters can reduce their strikeout rate by reducing bat speed as strikes increase, but the tradeoff in reduced power approximately counteracts the benefit to the average batter.

stat.AP

A multilevel model with heterogeneous variances for snap timing in the National Football League

Player tracking data have provided great opportunities to generate novel insights into understudied areas of American football, such as pre-snap motion. Using a Bayesian multilevel model with heterogeneous variances, we provide an assessment of NFL quarterbacks and their ability to synchronize the timing of the ball snap with pre-snap movement from their teammates. We focus on passing plays with receivers in motion at the snap and running a route, and define the snap timing as the time between the moment a receiver begins motioning and the ball snap event. We assume a Gamma distribution for the play-level snap timing and model the mean parameter with player and team random effects, along with relevant fixed effects such as the motion type identified via a Gaussian mixture model. Most importantly, we model the shape parameter with quarterback random effects, which enables us to estimate the differences in snap timing variability among NFL quarterbacks. We demonstrate that higher variability in snap timing is beneficial for the passing game, as it relates to facing less havoc created by the opposing defense. We also obtain a quarterback leaderboard based on our snap timing variability measure, and Patrick Mahomes stands out as the top player.

stat.AP

The Landscape of College-level Data Visualization Courses, and the Benefits of Incorporating Statistical Thinking

Data visualization is a core part of statistical practice and is ubiquitous in many fields. Although there are numerous books on data visualization, instructors in statistics and data science may be unsure how to teach data visualization, because it is such a broad discipline. To give guidance on teaching data visualization from a statistical perspective, we make two contributions. First, we conduct a survey of data visualization courses at top colleges and universities in the United States, in order to understand the landscape of data visualization courses. We find that most courses are not taught by statistics and data science departments and do not focus on statistical topics, especially those related to inference. Instead, most courses focus on visual storytelling, aesthetic design, dashboard design, and other topics specialized for other disciplines. Second, we outline three teaching principles for incorporating statistical inference in data visualization courses, and provide several examples that demonstrate how to follow these principles. The dataset from our survey allows others to explore the diversity of data visualization courses, and our teaching principles give guidance for encouraging statistical thinking when teaching data visualization.

stat.OT

Do LLMs write like humans? Variation in grammatical and rhetorical styles

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of writing grammatical text that follows instructions, answers questions, and solves problems. As they have advanced, it has become difficult to distinguish their output from human-written text. While past research has found some differences in surface features such as word choice and punctuation, and developed classifiers to detect LLM output, none has studied the rhetorical styles of LLMs. Using several variants of Llama 3 and GPT-4o, we construct two parallel corpora of human- and LLM-written texts from common prompts. Using Douglas Biber's set of lexical, grammatical, and rhetorical features, we identify systematic differences between LLMs and humans and between different LLMs. These differences persist when moving from smaller models to larger ones, and are larger for instruction-tuned models than base models. This observation of differences demonstrates that despite their advanced abilities, LLMs struggle to match human stylistic variation. Attention to more advanced linguistic features can hence detect patterns in their behavior not previously recognized.

cs.CL

NFL Ghosts: A framework for evaluating defender positioning with conditional density estimation

Player attribution in American football remains an open problem due to the complex nature of twenty-two players interacting on the field, but the granularity of player tracking data provides ample opportunity for novel approaches. In this work, we introduce the first public framework to evaluate spatial and trajectory tracking data of players relative to a baseline distribution of "ghost" defenders. We demonstrate our framework in the context of modeling the nearest defender positioning at the moment of catch. In particular, we provide estimates of how much better or worse their observed positioning and trajectory compared to the expected play value of ghost defenders. Our framework leverages multi-dimensional tracking data features through flexible random forests for conditional density estimation in two ways: (1) to model the distribution of receiver yards gained enabling the estimation of within-play expected value, and (2) to model the 2D spatial distribution of baseline ghost defenders. We present novel metrics for measuring player and team performance based on tracking data, and discuss challenges that remain in extending our framework to other aspects of American football.

stat.AP

Exploring the Difficulty of Estimating Win Probability: A Simulation Study

Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state variables. To illustrate just how difficult it is to accurately fit such a model from noisy and highly correlated observational data, in this paper we conduct a simulation study. We create a simplified random walk version of football in which true win probability at each game-state is known, and we see how well a model recovers it. We find that the dependence structure of observational play-by-play data substantially inflates the bias and variance of estimators and lowers the effective sample size. Further, to achieve approximately valid marginal coverage, win probability confidence intervals need to be substantially wide. Concisely, these are high variance estimators subject to substantial uncertainty. Our findings are not unique to the particular application of estimating win probability; they are broadly applicable across sports analytics, as myriad other sports datasets are clustered into groups of observations that share the same outcome.

stat.ME

Fractional Tackles: Leveraging Player Tracking Data for Within-Play Tackling Evaluation in American Football

Tackling is a fundamental defensive move in American football, with the main purpose of stopping the forward motion of the ball-carrier. However, current tackling metrics are manually recorded outcomes that are inherently flawed due to their discrete and subjective nature. Using player tracking data, we present a novel framework for assessing tackling contribution in a continuous and objective manner. Our approach first identifies when a defender is in a ``contact window'' of the ball-carrier during a play, before assigning value to each window and the players involved. This enables us to devise a new metric called fractional tackles, which credits defenders for halting the ball-carrier's forward motion toward the end zone. We demonstrate that fractional tackles overcome the shortcomings of traditional metrics such as tackles and assists, by providing greater variation and measurable information for players lacking recorded statistics like defensive linemen. We view our contribution as a significant step forward in measuring defensive performance in American football and a clear demonstration of the capabilities of player tracking data.

stat.AP

Analytics, have some humility: a statistical view of fourth-down decision making

The standard mathematical approach to fourth-down decision making in American football is to make the decision that maximizes estimated win probability. Win probability estimates arise from machine learning models fit from historical data. These models attempt to capture a nuanced relationship between a noisy binary outcome variable and game-state variables replete with interactions and non-linearities from a finite dataset of just a few thousand games. Thus, it is imperative to knit uncertainty quantification into the fourth-down decision procedure; we do so using bootstrapping. We find that uncertainty in the estimated optimal fourth-down decision is far greater than that currently expressed by sports analysts in popular sports media.

stat.AP

Here Comes the STRAIN: Analyzing Defensive Pass Rush in American Football with Player Tracking Data

In American football, a pass rush is an attempt by the defensive team to disrupt the offense and prevent the quarterback (QB) from completing a pass. Existing metrics for assessing pass rush performance are either discrete-time quantities or based on subjective judgment. Using player tracking data, we propose STRAIN, a novel metric for evaluating pass rushers in the National Football League (NFL) at the continuous-time within-play level. Inspired by the concept of strain rate in materials science, STRAIN is a simple and interpretable means for measuring defensive pressure in football. It is a directly-observed statistic as a function of two features: the distance between the pass rusher and QB, and the rate at which this distance is being reduced. Our metric possesses great predictability of pressure and stability over time. We also fit a multilevel model for STRAIN to understand the defensive pressure contribution of every pass rusher at the play-level. We apply our approach to NFL data and present results for the first eight weeks of the 2021 regular season. In particular, we provide comparisons of STRAIN for different defensive positions and play outcomes, and rankings of the NFL's best pass rushers according to our metric.

stat.AP

TRAP: A Predictive Framework for Trail Running Assessment of Performance

Trail running is an endurance sport in which athletes face severe physical challenges. Due to the growing number of participants, the organization of limited staff, equipment, and medical support in these races now plays a key role. Monitoring runner's performance is a difficult task that requires knowledge of the terrain and of the runner's ability. In the past, choices were solely based on the organizers' experience without reliance on data. However, this approach is neither scalable nor transferable. Instead, we propose a firm statistical methodology to perform this task, both before and during the race. Our proposed framework, Trail Running Assessment of Performance (TRAP), studies (1) the the assessment of the runner's ability to reach the next checkpoint, (2) the prediction of the runner's expected passage time at the next checkpoint, and (3) corresponding prediction intervals for the passage time. To obtain data on the ability of runners, we introduce a Python package, ScrapITRA, to access the race history of runners from the International Trail Running Association (ITRA). We apply our methodology, using the ITRA data along with checkpoint and terrain-level information, to the "holy grail" of ultra-trail running, the Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc (UTMB) race, demonstrating the predictive power of our methodology.

stat.AP

Unsupervised Methods for Identifying Pass Coverage Among Defensive Backs with NFL Player Tracking Data

Analysis of player tracking data for American football is in its infancy, since the National Football League (NFL) released its Next Gen Stats tracking data publicly for the first time in December 2018. While tracking datasets in other sports often contain detailed annotations of on-field events, annotations in the NFL's tracking data are limited. Methods for creating these annotations typically require extensive human labeling, which is difficult and expensive. We begin tackling this class of problems by creating annotations for pass coverage types by defensive backs using unsupervised learning techniques, which require no manual labeling or human oversight. We define a set of features from the NFL's tracking data that help distinguish between "zone" and "man" coverage. We use Gaussian mixture modeling and hierarchical clustering to create clusters corresponding to each group, and we assign the appropriate type of coverage to each cluster through qualitative analysis of the plays in each cluster. We find that the mixture model's "soft" cluster assignments allow for more flexibility when identifying coverage types. Our work makes possible several potential avenues of future NFL research, and we provide a basic exploration of these in this paper.

stat.AP

Going Deep: Models for Continuous-Time Within-Play Valuation of Game Outcomes in American Football with Tracking Data

Continuous-time assessments of game outcomes in sports have become increasingly common in the last decade. In American football, only discrete-time estimates of play value were possible, since the most advanced public football datasets were recorded at the play-by-play level. While measures such as expected points and win probability are useful for evaluating football plays and game situations, there has been no research into how these values change throughout the course of a play. In this work, we make two main contributions: First, we introduce a general framework for continuous-time within-play valuation in the National Football League using player-tracking data. Our modular framework incorporates several modular sub-models, to easily incorporate recent work involving player tracking data in football. Second, we use a long short-term memory recurrent neural network to construct a ball-carrier model to estimate how many yards the ball-carrier is expected to gain from their current position, conditional on the locations and trajectories of the ball-carrier, their teammates and opponents. Additionally, we demonstrate an extension with conditional density estimation so that the expectation of any measure of play value can be calculated in continuous-time, which was never before possible at such a granular level.

stat.AP

nflWAR: A Reproducible Method for Offensive Player Evaluation in Football

Unlike other major professional sports, American football lacks comprehensive statistical ratings for player evaluation that are both reproducible and easily interpretable in terms of game outcomes. Existing methods for player evaluation in football depend heavily on proprietary data, are not reproducible, and lag behind those of other major sports. We present four contributions to the study of football statistics in order to address these issues. First, we develop the R package nflscrapR to provide easy access to publicly available play-by-play data from the National Football League (NFL) dating back to 2009. Second, we introduce a novel multinomial logistic regression approach for estimating the expected points for each play. Third, we use the expected points as input into a generalized additive model for estimating the win probability for each play. Fourth, we introduce our nflWAR framework, using multilevel models to isolate the contributions of individual offensive skill players, and providing estimates for their individual wins above replacement (WAR). We estimate the uncertainty in each player's WAR through a resampling approach specifically designed for football, and we present these results for the 2017 NFL season. We discuss how our reproducible WAR framework, built entirely on publicly available data, can be easily extended to estimate WAR for players at any position, provided that researchers have access to data specifying which players are on the field during each play. Finally, we discuss the potential implications of this work for NFL teams.

stat.AP