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Runze Li

Publications and source records attributed to Runze Li.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2026

Understanding Sectoral Responses to Tariff Uncertainty via a High-Dimensional Mediation Analysis

This paper conducts an empirical mediation analysis to examine how U.S. stock-market sectors responded to the 2025 tariff-policy episode. Using S&P 500 stock data along with hundreds of firm-level financial variables, we study whether sector membership was associated with differences in stock returns and whether these differences were statistically related to firm financial characteristics. For each of five economically distinct tariff-policy windows, we use high-dimensional linear causal mediation models to estimate the direct sector effects. We use a linear regression model to estimate the total sector effects, and then estimate the indrect sector effects by using the difference between the total sector effects and the direct sector effects. To accommodate a large number of candidate mediators, we use a partially penalized least-squares procedure that regularizes financial-variable coefficients while unpenalizes coefficients of all sector indicators. Wald and F-type tests are used to examine whether indirect and direct effects are significant or not, respectively. The results show that tariff news did not produce one uniform market response. Sector effects vary across five economically distinct tariff-policy windows. The clearest findings are in the direct sector effects. Technology was the sector most negatively affected during the initial decline and escalation collapse, but it also rebounded most strongly during the April 9 relief rally. The results indicate that in addition to Technology, Energy and other trade-exposed sectors were particularly affected during the initial decline and escalation phases. The selected mediators provide evidence that growth, investment, liquidity, profitability, and cash-flow characteristics helped characterize firms associated with sector-level return differences.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2026

Model-free and Distributionally Robust Feature Screening with False Discovery Control for High-Dimensional Heterogeneous Data

In this paper, we propose a model-free feature screening framework tailored for high-dimensional and heterogeneous datasets, based on a novel distributionally robust dependence measure termed Copula Divergence. The proposed screening method, named CD-Screen, addresses critical limitations of existing feature screening methods, such as restrictive modeling assumptions and sensitivity to heterogeneous feature distributions. CD-Screen ranks features according to their Copula Divergence without relying on a specific regression model or distributional assumptions. Additionally, we introduce CD-FDR, a data-driven procedure to control false discoveries, ensuring accurate and efficient feature selection. Theoretical analyses establish the sure screening and rank consistency properties of CD-Screen, along with asymptotic control of the false discovery rate by CD-FDR. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the superior performance of our methods compared to traditional screening approaches across diverse scenarios. Furthermore, a real data analysis of the relationship between stock returns and inflation in the United States {illustrates the practical use of our method and provides descriptive evidence on} sector-specific responses to economic changes.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

From Transient Prompts to Persistent Control: Scientific Poster Generation via Recursive Semantic-Geometric Contracts

Scientific poster generation distills a multimodal paper into a single-page visual artifact, forcing strict trade-offs between informational coverage and readability under a fixed spatial budget. Existing methods pass plans as transient prompts and validate individual stages in isolation. This strategy causes requirements to drift across content and layout modules, and previous checks to be silently invalidated. We introduce PosterVisor, a control framework that shifts poster generation from transient prompts to persistent control. An Orchestrator grounds rubrics in the paper and visual assets, compiling them into a Semantic-Geometric Contract (SGC) that binds claims and sources to required visuals, budgets, and spatial commitments. Only fully instantiated records become executable assertions; other usable requirements remain soft guidance. Recursive Contract Enforcement (RCE) dynamically triggers checks across stages as evidence emerges. Crucially, during repairs, RCE rechecks affected checkpoint states, preventing repair-induced regressions from propagating silently. We instantiate PosterVisor in HTML/CSS and editable PPTX generators. On the 100-paper Paper2Poster benchmark, PosterVisor-PPT improves observed mean poster-grounded QA accuracy over PosterGen (64.47% vs. 58.53%) and is preferred by human judges in 72.5% of non-tied pairwise comparisons (95% CI, 61.6-83.4%). A secondary 30-paper study also yields higher VLM Overall and PaperQuiz means. These results support rubric-compiled contracts and stage-conditioned enforcement for controllable poster synthesis.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

StepAudio 3 Gen Technical Report

We introduce StepAudio 3 Gen, a general-purpose audio generation model that supports zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS), voice design, vocal generation, sound effects, music, vibe speech, and mixtures of multiple audio types within a unified framework. At its core, StepAudio 3 Gen is a discrete autoregressive generator that models audio directly over residual vector quantization (RVQ) tokens, departing from the diffusion Transformer-based continuous generation paradigm prevalent in recent general audio models. Its StepAudio Tokenizer represents general audio at 12.5 Hz in a shared $16 \times 2048$ residual code space, jointly quantizing semantic and waveform-level acoustic features so that each code layer preserves both types of information. For generation, the backbone predicts the first codebook along the time axis using autoregressive modeling, while a lightweight causal Transformer completes the remaining fifteen codebooks along the codebook axis. Our study further identifies three key design principles: (1) interference-aware progressive pretraining for acquiring audio capabilities while preserving the textual abilities of the large language model, (2) RVQ Adaptor for effectively incorporating multi-codebook acoustic representations, and (3) discrete autoregressive modeling over a shared representation across general audio domains. With progressive pretraining, multi-task instruction training, and supervised fine-tuning, StepAudio 3 Gen achieves state-of-the-art performance on both TTS and voice design, while retaining strong generation capabilities across speech, vocals, sound effects, and music. Audio samples are available at https://stepaudiollm.github.io/step-audio-3-gen/.

cs.SD↗
arXiv2026

FADTI: Fourier and Attention Driven Diffusion for Multivariate Time Series Imputation

Multivariate time series imputation is fundamental in applications such as healthcare, traffic forecasting, and biological modeling, where sensor failures and irregular sampling lead to pervasive missing values. Existing Transformer- and diffusion-based imputers achieve strong performance, but they often rely mainly on time-domain modeling and lack adaptive spectral bias for recovering structured temporal gaps. We propose FADTI, a Fourier- and attention-driven diffusion framework for multivariate time series imputation. FADTI introduces a Fourier Bias Projection (FBP) module that injects learnable frequency-aware bias into intermediate hidden states during denoising. It projects intermediate hidden states onto Fourier bases, avoiding direct spectral estimation from masked or zero-filled inputs. With DFT, STFT, and FSST instantiations, FBP captures global periodicity, localized time--frequency variations, and non-stationary oscillatory patterns. By coupling FBP with self-attention and gated convolution, FADTI integrates frequency-domain guidance, temporal dependency modeling, and probabilistic denoising in a unified framework. Experiments on multiple benchmarks, including a new biological imputation benchmark, show that FADTI improves accuracy, uncertainty estimation, and sampling efficiency, especially under high missing rates and structured missing patterns. Code is available at https://github.com/RazeenLI/FADTI

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

On tail-robust autocovariance matrix estimation for high-dimensional and potentially nonstationary time series

In this paper, we study the autocovariance matrix estimation and inference problems under heavy-tailedness, high-dimensionality, general nonlinear temporal dependence, and potentially nonstationarity of time series. We consider two types of tail-robust autocovariance matrix estimation methods: the element-wise Huber's $M$-estimator and a computationally more efficient element-wise truncated estimator. Both estimators are designed to achieve sharp error bounds in matrix max-norm. The nonasymptotic properties of these estimators are proved based on new variants of Bernstein-type inequalities under functional dependence for the potentially nonstationary processes which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we prove a high-dimensional Gaussian approximation result, as a limiting distribution, for our element-wise truncated autocovariance estimator. A Gaussian multiplier bootstrap result is also given to facilitate the practicality. Our theoretical results are nonasymptotic, which gives explicit error bounds in terms of the sample size, dimensionality, moments, and the strength of temporal dependence. Numerical evidence is provided to support our theoretical results. Finally, we illustrate the benefits of the proposed methodology for detecting change points in monthly macroeconomic data.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

UI-Venus-2 Technical Report

Multimodal GUI agents have emerged as a promising paradigm for digital task automation, yet transitioning from benchmark-oriented models to dependable real-world applications remains challenging due to limited environment coverage, brittle task construction, and unreliable reward verification. In this work, we present UI-Venus-2, a general-purpose foundation GUI agent designed to operate across mobile, web, and desktop environments through a unified closed-loop reasoning-action framework. To bridge the gap toward practical deployment, we jointly scale three critical dimensions: (1) Environments, expanding coverage to more than 170 multilingual mobile apps and native desktop operating systems; (2) Tasks, employing a deep-research pipeline for function-grounded instruction generation; and (3) Verification, adopting trace-level and sample-level evaluators with visual keypoints and multi-model voting to ensure reliable RL signals for training. Furthermore, we integrate safety-aware mechanisms to ensure controlled execution of consequential actions. By offering a capable, efficient, and open-source foundation, UI-Venus-2 advances the field toward more generalizable, verifiable, and self-reflective agents for real-world applications.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Differentiable Parametric Simulation and Reconstruction Models in Parnassus

Parnassus is a framework for fast detector simulation and reconstruction, directly mapping truth-level particles onto reconstructed objects. Such models can be built from deep generative networks trained on paired samples, which are fit automatically to a target detector, or from parametric prescriptions of the kind used by Delphes, which are constructed by hand. We remove this asymmetry by making the parametric models fully differentiable so that their parameters can be fit to a target sample by gradient descent. We demonstrate closure by fitting a parametric model to samples from a known configuration of itself, recovering the generating parameters and characterizing the degeneracies among them, and we present a first fit to CMS full simulation. The resulting models are interpretable, inexpensive, and run in the standard Parnassus pipeline which is fully Python based and GPU enabled.

hep-ex↗
arXiv2026

(Mis)Understanding Benign Overfitting in Equity Return Prediction

Highly overparameterized models often predict well despite interpolating training data in complex domains, challenging the classical bias--variance tradeoff. We investigate whether this ``benign overfitting'' phenomenon extends to equity return prediction. Consistent with recent statistical theory, we document two key phenomena: first, a double descent pattern in the ridgeless model's prediction risk; and second, that while the optimal ridge model consistently outperforms its ridgeless counterpart, this performance gap becomes negligible at large parameter-to-observation ratios. Ultimately, however, both models fail to outperform a simple historical average. This empirical evidence aligns with our asymptotic results under the null hypothesis of zero slope coefficients, suggesting that standard equity predictors lack true forecasting power---even within highly flexible, nonlinear machine learning architectures. These findings reconcile modern and classical machine learning in asset pricing: in the absence of a true signal, they asymptotically collapse to the historical average benchmark.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Video Diffusion for Satellite-based High-Dynamical-Fidelity Precipitation (HiDFiP) Field Generation

High spatiotemporal fidelity precipitation products that accurately capture storm spatial organization, propagation, and lifecycle evolution, are essential for advancing hydrometeorological research and operations at regional and global scales. Satellite products offer the only near-global precipitation observations, but they still fall short of reproducing the spatiotemporal structure of ground-based references, due largely to dynamic distortions from the inhomogeneity, intermittency, and indirectness of satellite retrievals. Here we propose a video-diffusion framework for satellite-based High-Dynamical-Fidelity Precipitation (HiDFiP) field generation beyond the space-time coverage of ground-radar, using radar-rich CONUS as a testbed. The framework performs explicit spatiotemporal modeling with IMERG as the primary source and leverages four-dimensional storm-environment information from about 40 ERA5/ERA5-Land atmospheric/land fields to compensate for the temporal information deficit inherent to satellite retrievals. We introduce an extensive metric suite to assess HiDFiP dynamical fidelity in temporal-reconstruction and spatial-transfer settings against MRMS ground-radar precipitation over CONUS. Relative to IMERG and image-wise diffusion baselines, HiDFiP accurately reproduces the storm space-time spectral characteristics; storm timing, location, and directional propagation; precipitation-event episodicity and temporal structure; precipitation-system morphology and spatial organization; and storm-track kinematics and lifecycle evolution. Transferability experiments indicate that HiDFiP generalizes reasonably well to an unseen region. This work advances a video-diffusion paradigm for satellite-based high-spatiotemporal-fidelity precipitation generation and provides an algorithmic and diagnostic foundation for long-term global radar-grade precipitation records.

physics.ao-ph↗
arXiv2026

MAGA: Multi-Platform Self-Fusion of GUI Agents via Structured Action Distillation

Graphical user interface (GUI) agents based on large language models are increasingly deployed across mobile, web, and desktop environments. However, existing agents are typically domain-specific, limiting the deployment and user experience. This motivates the consolidation of specialized models into a single cross-environment policy. Weight merging directly merges domain-specific experts but can corrupt executable actions under expert disagreement, while on-policy distillation (OPD) avoids conflicting teacher supervision yet still treats all response tokens equally during distillation, ignoring that action tokens are the only interface between the environment and the agent. To address this, We introduce MAGA that re-allocates training signal according to the structured action. Based on the correctness of the generated action, it suppresses unnecessary or invalid distillation signals and focuses learning on erroneous actions. Besides, a training-only hint optimizes the supervision signal provided by domain-specific teachers without changing the student input. Across two model scales, MAGA achieves the highest mean success rate, outperforming the strongest baseline by 2.0% at 8B and achieves almost the same average performance with teachers.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Rotation topological states: theory and material realization

The conventional characterization of topological materials relies on topological invariants calculated from the entire set of occupied bands. However, when a system possesses rotational symmetry, the occupied Hilbert space can be decomposed into multiple subspaces labeled by distinct rotation eigenvalues. We show that this decomposition reveals hidden topological states characterized by a novel $\mathbb{Z}_2^n$ topological invariant, where $n$ is the number of subspaces, while the conventional $\mathbb{Z}_2$ invariant may fail to detect the topology hidden in the rotation subspaces. Remarkably, time-reversal symmetry pairs conjugate rotation eigenvalues and guarantees that the two subspaces have the same $\mathbb{Z}_2$ invariants, making the topology always hidden from the conventional global invariant. We formulate the theory of rotation-subspace topology and demonstrate its material realization in bulk CsCl. Using first-principles calculations and symmetry analysis, we show that bulk CsCl, which is diagnosed as topologically trivial by the conventional approach, features a nontrivial $\mathbb{Z}_2^3$ invariant along the $Γ$-R path and a nontrivial $\mathbb{Z}_2^4$ invariant along the $Γ$-Z and M-R paths, leading to double Weyl points on the (111) and (001) surfaces, respectively. The subspace $\mathbb{Z}_2^n$ invariant proposed here serves as a necessary refinement for symmetry-protected topological phases and will facilitate the identification of a large class of topological states overlooked by existing diagnostics.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗
arXiv2026

Plasma-state metasurfaces for ultra-intensive field manipulation

High-power lasers offer ultrahigh intensities for plasma interactions, but they lack advanced techniques to control the properties of the fields, because no optical elements could withstand their high intensities. The vibrant field of metasurfaces has transformed modern optics by enabling unprecedented control over light at subwavelength through deliberate design. However, metasurfaces have traditionally been limited to solid-state materials and low light intensities. Extending the sophisticated capabilities of metasurfaces from solids into the plasma realm would open new horizons for high-field science. Here, we experimentally demonstrate plasma-state metasurfaces (PSMs) through the photonic spin Hall effect and stable-propagating vortex beam generation irradiated by intense light. Time-resolved pump-probe measurements reveal that the functionality of PSMs can persist for several picoseconds, making them suitable for controlling ultra-intense femtosecond lasers, even in state-of-the-art multi-petawatt systems. Harnessing the powerful toolkit of metasurfaces, this approach holds the promise to revolutionize our ability to manipulate the amplitude, phase, polarization, and wavefront of high-power lasers during their pulse duration. It also opens new possibilities for innovative applications in laser-plasma interactions such as compact particle acceleration and novel radiation sources.

physics.plasm-ph↗
arXiv2026

Beyond Heuristic Tuning: Power-Calibrated LLM Watermarking

Logit-based watermarking is a widely used mechanism for identifying LLM generated content, yet its effectiveness is governed by a fundamental trade-off between detectability and semantic distortion. Existing analyses provide limited guidance for principled hyperparameter selection, leaving practical deployments reliant on heuristic tuning. In this work, we develop a power-calibrated statistical framework that establishes explicit quantitative relationships between watermark hyperparameters, detection power, and distortion. This characterization transforms watermark design into a guided optimization problem. Building on these results, we derive practical parameter selection procedures that achieve optimal tradeoffs under constraints. Extensive experiments across multiple language models and datasets validate the theory and demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently identifies Pareto-optimal points.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

ReSkill: Reconciling Skill Creation with Policy Optimization in Agentic RL

Agentic reinforcement learning (RL) enables LLM agents to improve continuously from environment rewards, yet the resulting policies do not systematically accumulate reusable strategies that generalize across tasks. Modular skills can provide such reusable strategies, yet existing skill-augmented RL methods decouple skill creation from policy optimization, risking adopting skills that conflict with the evolving policy. Inspired by Anthropic's Skill Creator, we introduce ReSkill, an RL-in-the-loop skill creation framework that reconciles skill evolution with policy learning. ReSkill exploits the group-wise structure of GRPO to naturally embed three mechanisms with only marginal additional overhead: (1) an assertion-driven skill creator that diagnoses failures from past experience and proposes conditional, trigger-based skill revisions; (2) within-group rollout sampling that enables controlled comparison of skill versions, capturing which version best supports the policy's ongoing learning; and (3) Thompson Sampling with adaptive discounting to balance exploration and exploitation in skill version selection as the policy evolves. Across several domains, ReSkill consistently outperforms existing memory and skill-based RL methods, with the largest gains on unseen tasks. Analysis of the skill lifecycle shows skills being automatically created, tested, refined, and pruned as the policy improves, demonstrating reconciled skill-policy co-evolution.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Mitigating the Curse of Dimensionality in Uniform Convergence of Deep Neural Networks via Smooth Activations

This paper establishes a theoretical framework for the uniform convergence of smoothly activated deep neural network (DNN) estimators. While standard ReLU networks achieve minimax-optimal rates in the $L^2(P)$ norm for various nonparametric regression tasks, we establish a theoretical lower bound demonstrating that least-squares ReLU estimators can suffer from the curse of dimensionality in their uniform convergence behavior. Motivated by the need for reliable uniform guarantees in downstream tasks requiring worst-case reliability, we address this limitation by analyzing smoothly activated DNNs (smooth DNNs), encompassing both feedforward and residual structures. We establish novel pseudo-dimension bounds, non-asymptotic approximation guarantees, and Hölder-norm bounds for the approximators of these models. Leveraging these results, we derive non-asymptotic uniform convergence rates for smooth DNN estimators across multiple statistical contexts, including Huber, least-squares, quantile, and logistic regression. We prove that smooth DNNs can mitigate the {curse of dimensionality} in uniform convergence by adaptively exploiting the low-dimensional hierarchical composition structure of the target function. Supported by both simulation studies and a real-world application, our results position smooth DNNs as a theoretically grounded and practically viable alternative to ReLU networks for statistical learning tasks requiring uniform guarantees.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

StepAudio 2.5 Technical Report

Unified audio-language modeling has emerged as a prominent trend in modern speech systems, promising to bring the reasoning capabilities of large language models to auditory tasks. However, existing unified foundations often struggle to match the depth of specialized systems across automatic speech recognition (ASR), text-to-speech synthesis (TTS), and realtime spoken interaction. Bridging this gap remains an open challenge. This report presents StepAudio 2.5, a unified audio-language foundation model that matches or exceeds specialized systems across all three capabilities. Rather than treating these tasks as architecturally distinct, we operate on the premise that once text and audio share a multimodal representational space, task specialization becomes a matter of operational regimes: data construction, optimization targets, and decoding constraints. Guided by this insight, we advance the post-training paradigm from standard supervised learning to task-tailored Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), using it as the primary mechanism to define complex optimization targets. We leverage this RLHF-centric alignment, alongside specialized decoding, to shape a shared backbone into three distinct operational modes. Concretely, the ASR branch advances transcription efficiency via verifiable multi-token decoding; the TTS branch achieves controllable, expressive synthesis through preference-based RLHF and context-rich supervision; and the Realtime branch realizes low-latency, persona-consistent dialogue via generative reward modeling within an RLHF framework. On standard benchmarks, StepAudio 2.5 achieves state-of-the-art results across ASR, TTS, and Realtime, demonstrating that a singular audio-language foundation can successfully internalize the distinct deployment objectives of speech understanding, generation, and live interaction.

eess.AS↗
arXiv2026

Unified Multimodal Visual Tracking with Dual Mixture-of-Experts

Multimodal visual object tracking can be divided into to several kinds of tasks (e.g. RGB and RGB+X tracking), based on the input modality. Existing methods often train separate models for each modality or rely on pretrained models to adapt to new modalities, which limits efficiency, scalability, and usability. Thus, we introduce OneTrackerV2, a unified multi-modal tracking framework that enables end-to-end training for any modality. We propose Meta Merger to embed multi-modal information into a unified space, allowing flexible modality fusion and robustness. We further introduce Dual Mixture-of-Experts (DMoE): T-MoE models spatio-temporal relations for tracking, while M-MoE embeds multi-modal knowledge, disentangling cross-modal dependencies and reducing feature conflicts. With a shared architecture, unified parameters, and a single end-to-end training, OneTrackerV2 achieves state-of-the-art performance across five RGB and RGB+X tracking tasks and 12 benchmarks, while maintaining high inference efficiency. Notably, even after model compression, OneTrackerV2 retains strong performance. Moreover, OneTrackerV2 demonstrates remarkable robustness under modality-missing scenarios.

cs.CV↗