arXiv subjects

Samuel Power

Publications and source records attributed to Samuel Power.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Big Batch Bayesian Active Learning by Considering Predictive Probabilities

We observe that BatchBALD, a popular acquisition function for batch Bayesian active learning for classification, can conflate epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, leading to suboptimal performance. Motivated by this observation, we propose to focus on the predictive probabilities, which only exhibit epistemic uncertainty. The result is an acquisition function that not only performs better, but is also faster to evaluate, allowing for larger batches than before.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Error bounds for particle gradient descent, and extensions of the log-Sobolev and Talagrand inequalities

We prove non-asymptotic error bounds for particle gradient descent (PGD, Kuntz et al., 2023), a recently introduced algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of large latent variable models obtained by discretizing a gradient flow of the free energy. We begin by showing that the flow converges exponentially fast to the free energy's minimizers for models satisfying a condition that generalizes both the log-Sobolev and the Polyak--{\L}ojasiewicz inequalities (LSI and P{\L}I, respectively). We achieve this by extending a result well-known in the optimal transport literature (that the LSI implies the Talagrand inequality) and its counterpart in the optimization literature (that the P{\L}I implies the so-called quadratic growth condition), and applying the extension to our new setting. We also generalize the Bakry--\'Emery Theorem and show that the LSI/P{\L}I extension holds for models with strongly concave log-likelihoods. For such models, we further control PGD's discretization error and obtain the non-asymptotic error bounds. While we are motivated by the study of PGD, we believe that the inequalities and results we extend may be of independent interest.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Momentum Particle Maximum Likelihood

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of latent variable models is often recast as the minimization of a free energy functional over an extended space of parameters and probability distributions. This perspective was recently combined with insights from optimal transport to obtain novel particle-based algorithms for fitting latent variable models to data. Drawing inspiration from prior works which interpret `momentum-enriched' optimization algorithms as discretizations of ordinary differential equations, we propose an analogous dynamical-systems-inspired approach to minimizing the free energy functional. The result is a dynamical system that blends elements of Nesterov's Accelerated Gradient method, the underdamped Langevin diffusion, and particle methods. Under suitable assumptions, we prove that the continuous-time system minimizes the functional. By discretizing the system, we obtain a practical algorithm for MLE in latent variable models. The algorithm outperforms existing particle methods in numerical experiments and compares favourably with other MLE algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A State-Space Perspective on Modelling and Inference for Online Skill Rating

We summarise popular methods used for skill rating in competitive sports, along with their inferential paradigms and introduce new approaches based on sequential Monte Carlo and discrete hidden Markov models. We advocate for a state-space model perspective, wherein players' skills are represented as time-varying, and match results serve as observed quantities. We explore the steps to construct the model and the three stages of inference: filtering, smoothing and parameter estimation. We examine the challenges of scaling up to numerous players and matches, highlighting the main approximations and reductions which facilitate statistical and computational efficiency. We additionally compare approaches in a realistic experimental pipeline that can be easily reproduced and extended with our open-source Python package, https://github.com/SamDuffield/abile.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Bivariate Causal Discovery using Bayesian Model Selection

Much of the causal discovery literature prioritises guaranteeing the identifiability of causal direction in statistical models. For structures within a Markov equivalence class, this requires strong assumptions which may not hold in real-world datasets, ultimately limiting the usability of these methods. Building on previous attempts, we show how to incorporate causal assumptions within the Bayesian framework. Identifying causal direction then becomes a Bayesian model selection problem. This enables us to construct models with realistic assumptions, and consequently allows for the differentiation between Markov equivalent causal structures. We analyse why Bayesian model selection works in situations where methods based on maximum likelihood fail. To demonstrate our approach, we construct a Bayesian non-parametric model that can flexibly model the joint distribution. We then outperform previous methods on a wide range of benchmark datasets with varying data generating assumptions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Accelerated Sampling on Discrete Spaces with Non-Reversible Markov Processes

We consider the task of MCMC sampling from a distribution defined on a discrete space. Building on recent insights provided in [Zan19], we devise a class of efficient continuous-time, non-reversible algorithms which make active use of the structure of the underlying space. Particular emphasis is placed on how symmetries and other group-theoretic notions can be used to improve exploration of the space. We test our algorithms on a range of examples from statistics, computational physics, machine learning, and cryptography, which show improvement on alternative algorithms. We provide practical recommendations on how to design and implement these algorithms, and close with remarks on the outlook for both discrete sampling and continuous-time Monte Carlo more broadly.

stat.CO↗