arXiv subjects

Sergey Samsonov

Publications and source records attributed to Sergey Samsonov.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Conformalized Quantile Regression and Minimax Limits of Fixed-Score Calibration under Known Covariate Shift

In this paper, we study nonasymptotic $L^p$ error bounds for interval length and conditional coverage in split conformalized quantile regression (CQR). Our bounds rely on local regularity conditions and accuracy guarantees for the estimated quantiles. We further instantiate our bounds for quantile regression with sparse ReLU neural networks. We also consider covariate shift, where the calibration and test covariates have different distributions, and derive nonasymptotic bounds for this setting. We obtain matching minimax upper and lower bounds in expectation for two constructed fixed-score calibration benchmarks under known covariate shift. The bounds match for every $p\in[1,\infty]$ in the scalar problem and for finite $p$ in the $K$-threshold problem; for the latter, a high-probability minimax lower bound holds for every $p\in[1,\infty]$.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

A lower bound for $\langle 3,2,m \rangle$ matrix multiplication

We prove that, over any field, the bilinear complexity of multiplying a $3\times 2$ matrix by a $2\times m$ matrix is strictly greater than $24m/5$. In particular, every exact bilinear algorithm for multiplying a $3\times 2$ matrix by a $2\times 5$ matrix requires at least $25$ multiplications. Together with the Hopcroft-Kerr upper bound, this proves that the $\langle 3,2,5\rangle$ matrix multiplication tensor has rank exactly $25$. The proof has been formally verified in Lean 4, with the formalization available at https://github.com/fallnlove/mm325_proof.

cs.CC↗

arXiv2026

Statistical analysis of Inverse Entropy-regularized Reinforcement Learning

Inverse reinforcement learning aims to infer the reward function that explains expert behavior observed through trajectories of state--action pairs. A long-standing difficulty in classical IRL is the non-uniqueness of the recovered reward: many reward functions can induce the same optimal policy, rendering the inverse problem ill-posed. In this paper, we develop a statistical framework for Inverse Entropy-regularized Reinforcement Learning that resolves this ambiguity by combining entropy regularization with a least-squares reconstruction of the reward from the soft Bellman residual. This combination yields a unique and well-defined so-called least-squares reward consistent with the expert policy. We model the expert demonstrations as a Markov chain with the invariant distribution defined by an unknown expert policy $π^\star$ and estimate the policy by a penalized maximum-likelihood procedure over a class of conditional distributions on the action space. We establish high-probability bounds for the excess Kullback--Leibler divergence between the estimated policy and the expert policy, accounting for statistical complexity through covering numbers of the policy class. These results lead to non-asymptotic minimax optimal convergence rates for the least-squares reward function, revealing the interplay between smoothing (entropy regularization), model complexity, and sample size. Our analysis bridges the gap between behavior cloning, inverse reinforcement learning, and modern statistical learning theory.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Beyond Marginal Validity: Finite-Sample Guarantees for Localized Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable. Randomly localized conformal prediction (RLCP) mitigates this gap by calibrating near the test point while preserving marginal coverage. Existing theory, however, lacks finite-sample guarantees for the realized localized set that jointly control conditional validity and oracle efficiency. We provide such guarantees. For any fixed score, under Hölder regularity of the conditional score CDF and standard density and kernel assumptions, we prove high-probability bounds, uniform over a realized localization neighbourhood, for the conditional-coverage gap and the length error relative to the oracle. The bounds decompose into an $O(h^β)$ localization bias and a calibration term decreasing with calibration size, clarifying the bandwidth bias-variance tradeoff and when RLCP tracks the oracle. We also analyze data-split learned scores: when the score targets a pivotal score, as in conformalized quantile regression, uniform local guarantees decompose into fixed-score calibration and uniform score-estimation errors, showing that improved learning sharpens localized guarantees.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Stop the Sampler! Classifier-Based Adaptive Stopping for Sampling Kernels

Sampling from complex, unnormalized probability densities is a fundamental challenge in Bayesian inference and probabilistic modeling. While Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide asymptotic guarantees, they often suffer from slow mixing and high computational costs due to fixed or manually tuned trajectory lengths. In this work, we propose a novel framework that treats trajectory termination as a learnable component of the sampling dynamics. By framing MCMC within the theory of non-acyclic generative flow networks (GFlowNets), we train state-dependent neural classifiers to decide when a trajectory has reached a high-density region and should terminate. We theoretically establish the connection between optimal classifiers and the target density via detailed balance conditions and introduce a multilevel training scheme to facilitate exploration in complex geometries. Experimental results across various benchmark densities demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces average trajectory lengths while improving mode coverage and mixing compared to standard MCMC baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Bradley-Terry Rankings for Recommender Systems Across Dataset Taxonomies

The ranking of recommendation algorithms is a challenging problem since model performance is sensitive to dataset characteristics such as sparsity, sequential structure, and scale. This drives a demand for a proper methodology for fair comparison between algorithms. Naive aggregation of performance metrics (e.g., averaging NDCG over benchmarks) can yield misleading rankings, undermining practical selection. To address this problem, we introduce a novel, data-driven ranking methodology based on Bradley-Terry (BT) model. We demonstrate that the obtained ranking depends on key dataset statistics. Additionally, we propose a novel metric for evaluating ranking consistency and demonstrate robustness of our ranking to incomplete data. Finally, we introduce a dataset-specific methodology for ranking algorithms on unseen datasets without running the models, relying on extensions of the Bradley-Terry framework, including BT trees and BT models with covariates.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2026

Your GFlowNet Secretly Learns an Optimal Transport Plan

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) are a framework for sampling structured objects via stochastic trajectories in a directed graph. In this work, we establish a theoretical connection between non-acyclic GFlowNets and optimal transport (OT). We show that fixing the initial flow distribution in a minimum-flow GFlowNet reduces its objective to a Kantorovich OT problem with graph-induced shortest path costs. At the optimum, the learned GFlowNet policy therefore encodes an optimal transport plan from the source distribution to the target distribution: we show that sampling trajectories from the minimum-flow GFlowNet recovers the corresponding optimal coupling. Our formulation enables applying the GFlowNet learning framework to OT problems on large graphs via edge flows and neural parameterization. Experiments confirm agreement with exact OT solvers and demonstrate that GFlowNets can learn high-quality transport plans.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Gaussian Approximation and Multiplier Bootstrap for Federated Linear Stochastic Approximation

In this paper, we establish Berry-Esseen-type bounds for federated linear stochastic approximation (LSA). Our results provide the first federated Gaussian approximations for LSA that explicitly capture communication-computation trade-offs and heterogeneity-aware error terms, quantifying the effects of local step size, number of local updates, and heterogeneity on convergence rates. We present results for both (i) constant step size regime and (ii) decreasing step size with an increasing number of local iterations, recovering the recent rates of Bonnerjee et al. [2025] as a special case. As a primary application of our results, we develop an online multiplier bootstrap procedure for inference on the last iterate, which avoids explicit estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrix, and obtain non-asymptotic validity guarantees for this procedure.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

On Gaussian approximation for entropy-regularized Q-learning with function approximation

In this paper, we derive rates of convergence in the high-dimensional central limit theorem for Polyak--Ruppert averaged iterates generated by entropy-regularized asynchronous Q-learning with linear function approximation and a polynomial stepsize $k^{-ω}$, $ω\in (1/2,1)$. Assuming that the sequence of observed triples $(s_k,a_k,s_{k+1})_{k \geq 0}$ forms a uniformly geometrically ergodic Markov chain, and under suitable regularity conditions for the projected soft Bellman equation, we establish a Gaussian approximation bound in the convex distance with rate of order $n^{-1/4}$, up to polylogarithmic factors in $n$, where $n$ is the number of samples used by the algorithm. To obtain this result, we combine a linearization of the soft Bellman recursion with a Gaussian approximation for the leading martingale term. Finally, we derive high-order moment bounds for the algorithm's last iterate, which might be of independent interest.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Gaussian Approximation and Multiplier Bootstrap for Stochastic Gradient Descent

In this paper, we establish the non-asymptotic validity of the multiplier bootstrap procedure for constructing the confidence sets using the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm. Under appropriate regularity conditions, our approach avoids the need to approximate the limiting covariance of Polyak-Ruppert SGD iterates, which allows us to derive approximation rates in convex distance of order up to $1/\sqrt{n}$. Notably, this rate can be faster than the one that can be proven in the Polyak-Juditsky central limit theorem. To our knowledge, this provides the first fully non-asymptotic bound on the accuracy of bootstrap approximations in SGD algorithms. Our analysis builds on the Gaussian approximation results for nonlinear statistics of independent random variables.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Revisiting the Constant Stepsize Stochastic Approximation with Decision-Dependent Markovian Noise

We revisit the convergence analysis of constant stepsize stochastic approximation (SA) with decision-dependent Markovian noise, with a focus on characterizing the stationary bias against the root of the mean-field equation. We first establish the finite-time $p$-th moment bounds for the SA iterates in a general decision-dependent setting, which serve as a stability foundation for the subsequent analysis. Building on this foundation, and leveraging a local regularity condition termed Poisson--Gateaux differentiability (WD$^\ast$) for the solution to Poisson equation induced by the decision-dependent Markov kernel, we show that the stationary bias is of the order $\mathcal{O}(α)$ for a broad class of decision-dependent settings. Additionally, we establish geometric weak convergence of the joint SA process towards a unique stationary distribution, and a functional central limit theorem. Our relaxed regularity condition enables us to cover cases of non-smooth kernels such as acceptance--rejection mechanisms, projected Langevin dynamics, and clipped state dynamics.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Gaussian Approximation for Asynchronous Q-learning

In this paper, we derive rates of convergence in the high-dimensional central limit theorem for Polyak-Ruppert averaged iterates generated by the asynchronous Q-learning algorithm with a polynomial stepsize $k^{-ω},\, ω\in (1/2, 1]$. Assuming that the sequence of state-action-next-state triples $(s_k, a_k, s_{k+1})_{k \geq 0}$ forms a uniformly geometrically ergodic Markov chain, we establish a rate of order up to $n^{-1/6} \log^{4} (nS A)$ over the class of hyper-rectangles, where $n$ is the number of samples used by the algorithm and $S$ and $A$ denote the numbers of states and actions, respectively. To obtain this result, we prove a high-dimensional central limit theorem for sums of martingale differences, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we present bounds for high-order moments for the algorithm's last iterate.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Learning Shortest Paths with Generative Flow Networks

In this paper, we present a novel learning framework for finding shortest paths in graphs utilizing Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets). First, we examine theoretical properties of GFlowNets in non-acyclic environments in relation to shortest paths. We prove that, if the total flow is minimized, forward and backward policies traverse the environment graph exclusively along shortest paths between the initial and terminal states. Building on this result, we show that the pathfinding problem in an arbitrary graph can be solved by training a non-acyclic GFlowNet with flow regularization. We experimentally demonstrate the performance of our method in pathfinding in permutation environments and in solving Rubik's Cubes. For the latter problem, our approach shows competitive results with state-of-the-art machine learning approaches designed specifically for this task in terms of the solution length, while requiring smaller search budget at test-time.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Scalable LinUCB: Low-Rank Design Matrix Updates for Recommenders with Large Action Spaces

In this paper, we introduce PSI-LinUCB, a scalable variant of LinUCB that enables efficient training, inference, and memory usage by representing the inverse regularized design matrix as a sum of a diagonal matrix and low-rank correction. We derive numerically stable rank-1 and batched updates that maintain the inverse without explicitly forming the matrix. To control memory growth, we employ a projector-splitting integrator for dynamical low-rank approximation, yielding an average per-step update cost and memory usage of $O(dr)$ for approximation rank $r$. The inference complexity of the proposed algorithm is $O(dr)$ per action evaluation. Experiments on recommender system datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

UVIP: Model-Free Approach to Evaluate Reinforcement Learning Algorithms

Policy evaluation is an important instrument for the comparison of different algorithms in Reinforcement Learning (RL). However, even a precise knowledge of the value function $V^π$ corresponding to a policy $π$ does not provide reliable information on how far the policy $π$ is from the optimal one. We present a novel model-free upper value iteration procedure ({\sf UVIP}) that allows us to estimate the suboptimality gap $V^{\star}(x) - V^π(x)$ from above and to construct confidence intervals for $V^\star$. Our approach relies on upper bounds to the solution of the Bellman optimality equation via the martingale approach. We provide theoretical guarantees for {\sf UVIP} under general assumptions and illustrate its performance on a number of benchmark RL problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Matrix-Free Two-to-Infinity and One-to-Two Norms Estimation

In this paper, we propose new randomized algorithms for estimating the two-to-infinity and one-to-two norms in a matrix-free setting, using only matrix-vector multiplications. Our methods are based on appropriate modifications of Hutchinson's diagonal estimator and its Hutch++ version. We provide oracle complexity bounds for both modifications. We further illustrate the practical utility of our algorithms for Jacobian-based regularization in deep neural network training on image classification tasks. We also demonstrate that our methodology can be applied to mitigate the effect of adversarial attacks in the domain of recommender systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

SCAFFLSA: Taming Heterogeneity in Federated Linear Stochastic Approximation and TD Learning

In this paper, we analyze the sample and communication complexity of the federated linear stochastic approximation (FedLSA) algorithm. We explicitly quantify the effects of local training with agent heterogeneity. We show that the communication complexity of FedLSA scales polynomially with the inverse of the desired accuracy $ε$. To overcome this, we propose SCAFFLSA a new variant of FedLSA that uses control variates to correct for client drift, and establish its sample and communication complexities. We show that for statistically heterogeneous agents, its communication complexity scales logarithmically with the desired accuracy, similar to Scaffnew. An important finding is that, compared to the existing results for Scaffnew, the sample complexity scales with the inverse of the number of agents, a property referred to as linear speed-up. Achieving this linear speed-up requires completely new theoretical arguments. We apply the proposed method to federated temporal difference learning with linear function approximation and analyze the corresponding complexity improvements.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Refined Analysis of Federated Averaging and Federated Richardson-Romberg

In this paper, we present a novel analysis of \FedAvg with constant step size, relying on the Markov property of the underlying process. We demonstrate that the global iterates of the algorithm converge to a stationary distribution and analyze its resulting bias and variance relative to the problem's solution. We provide a first-order bias expansion in both homogeneous and heterogeneous settings. Interestingly, this bias decomposes into two distinct components: one that depends solely on stochastic gradient noise and another on client heterogeneity. Finally, we introduce a new algorithm based on the Richardson-Romberg extrapolation technique to mitigate this bias.

stat.ML↗