arXiv subjects

Shixiang Zhu

Publications and source records attributed to Shixiang Zhu.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Conformalized Decision Risk Assessment

In many operational settings, decision-makers must commit to actions before uncertainty resolves, but existing optimization tools rarely quantify how consistently a chosen decision remains optimal across plausible scenarios. This paper introduces CREDO -- Conformalized Risk Estimation for Decision Optimization, a distribution-free framework that quantifies the probability that a prescribed decision remains (near-)optimal across realizations of uncertainty. CREDO reformulates decision risk through the inverse feasible region -- the set of outcomes under which a decision is optimal -- and estimates its probability using inner approximations constructed from conformal prediction balls generated by a conditional generative model. This approach yields finite-sample, distribution-free lower bounds on the probability of decision optimality. The framework is model-agnostic and broadly applicable across a wide range of optimization problems. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that CREDO provides accurate, efficient, and reliable evaluations of decision optimality across various optimization settings.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Global-Decision-Focused Neural ODEs for Proactive Grid Resilience Management

Extreme hazard events such as wildfires and hurricanes increasingly threaten power systems, causing widespread outages and disrupting critical services. Recently, predict-then-optimize approaches have gained traction in grid operations, where system functionality forecasts are first generated and then used as inputs for downstream decision-making. However, this two-stage method often results in a misalignment between prediction and optimization objectives, leading to suboptimal resource allocation. To address this, we propose predict-all-then-optimize-globally (PATOG), a framework that integrates outage prediction with globally optimized interventions. At its core, our global-decision-focused (GDF) neural ODE model captures outage dynamics while optimizing resilience strategies in a decision-aware manner. Unlike conventional methods, our approach ensures spatially and temporally coherent decision-making, improving both predictive accuracy and operational efficiency. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvements in outage prediction consistency and grid resilience.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

TimeAutoDiff: A Unified Framework for Generation, Imputation, Forecasting, and Time-Varying Metadata Conditioning of Heterogeneous Time Series Tabular Data

We present TimeAutoDiff, a unified latent-diffusion framework for four fundamental time-series tasks: unconditional generation, missing-data imputation, forecasting, and time-varying-metadata conditional generation. The model natively supports heterogeneous features including continuous, binary, and categorical variables. We unify all tasks using a masked-modeling strategy in which a binary mask specifies which time-series cells are observed and which must be generated. TimeAutoDiff combines a lightweight variational autoencoder, which maps mixed-type features into a continuous latent sequence, with a diffusion model that learns temporal dynamics in this latent space. Two architectural choices provide strong speed and scalability benefits. The diffusion model samples an entire latent trajectory at once rather than denoising one timestep at a time, greatly reducing reverse-diffusion calls. In addition, the VAE compresses along the feature axis, enabling efficient modeling of wide tables in a low-dimensional latent space. Empirical evaluation shows that TimeAutoDiff matches or surpasses strong baselines in synthetic sequence fidelity and consistently improves imputation and forecasting performance. Metadata conditioning enables realistic scenario exploration, allowing users to edit metadata sequences and produce coherent counterfactual trajectories that preserve cross-feature dependencies. Ablation studies highlight the importance of the VAE's feature encoding and key components of the denoiser. A distance-to-closest-record audit further indicates that the model generalizes without excessive memorization. Code is available at https://github.com/namjoonsuh/TimeAutoDiff

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Impact of power outages on the adoption of residential solar photovoltaic in a changing climate

Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are a cornerstone of residential decarbonization and energy resilience. However, most existing systems are PV-only and cannot provide backup power during grid failures. Here, we present a high-resolution analysis of 377,726 households in Indianapolis, US, quantifying how power outages influence the installation of PV-only systems between 2014 and 2023. Using a two-part econometric panel model, we estimate the causal effect of power outage exposure and project future risks under a middle of the road climate scenario (RCP 4.5). We find that each additional hour of annual outage duration per household lowers the new-installation rate by 0.012 percentage points per year, equivalent to a 31% decline relative to the historical mean (2014-2023). With outage duration and frequency projected to double by 2040, these results reveal a potential vicious cycle between grid unreliability and slower decarbonization, calling for policies that integrate grid resilience and clean-energy goals.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Topology-Aware Conformal Prediction for Stream Networks

Stream networks, a unique class of spatiotemporal graphs, exhibit complex directional flow constraints and evolving dependencies, making uncertainty quantification a critical yet challenging task. Traditional conformal prediction methods struggle in this setting due to the need for joint predictions across multiple interdependent locations and the intricate spatio-temporal dependencies inherent in stream networks. Existing approaches either neglect dependencies, leading to overly conservative predictions, or rely solely on data-driven estimations, failing to capture the rich topological structure of the network. To address these challenges, we propose Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Conformal Inference (\texttt{STACI}), a novel framework that integrates network topology and temporal dynamics into the conformal prediction framework. \texttt{STACI} introduces a topology-aware nonconformity score that respects directional flow constraints and dynamically adjusts prediction sets to account for temporal distributional shifts. We provide theoretical guarantees on the validity of our approach and demonstrate its superior performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Our results show that \texttt{STACI} effectively balances prediction efficiency and coverage, outperforming existing conformal prediction methods for stream networks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Enhancing Electricity-System Resilience with Adaptive Robust Optimization and Conformal Uncertainty Characterization

Extreme weather is straining electricity systems, exposing the limitations of reactive responses, and prompting the need for proactive resilience planning. Most existing approaches to enhance electricity system resilience employ simplified uncertainty models and decouple proactive and reactive decisions. This paper proposes a novel tri-level optimization model that integrates proactive actions, adversarial disruptions, and reactive responses. Conformal prediction is used to construct distribution-free system-disruption uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees. The tri-level problem is solved by using duality theory to derive a bi-level reformulation and employing Bender's decomposition. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms conventional robust and two-stage methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Quantifying Grid Resilience Against Extreme Weather Using Large-Scale Customer Power Outage Data

In recent decades, the weather around the world has become more irregular and extreme, often causing large-scale extended power outages. Resilience -- the capability of withstanding, adapting to, and recovering from a large-scale disruption -- has become a top priority for the power sector. However, the understanding of power grid resilience still stays on the conceptual level mostly or focuses on particular components, yielding no actionable results or revealing few insights on the system level. This study provides a quantitatively measurable definition of power grid resilience, using a statistical model inspired by patterns observed from data and domain knowledge. We analyze a large-scale quarter-hourly historical electricity customer outage data and the corresponding weather records, and draw connections between the model and industry resilience practice. We showcase the resilience analysis using three major service territories on the east coast of the United States. Our analysis suggests that cumulative weather effects play a key role in causing immediate, sustained outages, and these outages can propagate and cause secondary outages in neighboring areas. The proposed model also provides some interesting insights into grid resilience enhancement planning. For example, our simulation results indicate that enhancing the power infrastructure in a small number of critical locations can reduce nearly half of the number of customer power outages in Massachusetts. In addition, we have shown that our model achieves promising accuracy in predicting the progress of customer power outages throughout extreme weather events, which can be very valuable for system operators and federal agencies to prepare disaster response.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Counterfactual Fairness through Transforming Data Orthogonal to Bias

Machine learning models have shown exceptional prowess in solving complex issues across various domains. However, these models can sometimes exhibit biased decision-making, resulting in unequal treatment of different groups. Despite substantial research on counterfactual fairness, methods to reduce the impact of multivariate and continuous sensitive variables on decision-making outcomes are still underdeveloped. We propose a novel data pre-processing algorithm, Orthogonal to Bias (OB), which is designed to eliminate the influence of a group of continuous sensitive variables, thus promoting counterfactual fairness in machine learning applications. Our approach, based on the assumption of a jointly normal distribution within a structural causal model (SCM), demonstrates that counterfactual fairness can be achieved by ensuring the data is orthogonal to the observed sensitive variables. The OB algorithm is model-agnostic, making it applicable to a wide range of machine learning models and tasks. Additionally, it includes a sparse variant to improve numerical stability through regularization. Empirical evaluations on both simulated and real-world datasets, encompassing settings with both discrete and continuous sensitive variables, show that our methodology effectively promotes fairer outcomes without compromising accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

MISLEADER: Defending against Model Extraction with Ensembles of Distilled Models

Model extraction attacks aim to replicate the functionality of a black-box model through query access, threatening the intellectual property (IP) of machine-learning-as-a-service (MLaaS) providers. Defending against such attacks is challenging, as it must balance efficiency, robustness, and utility preservation in the real-world scenario. Despite the recent advances, most existing defenses presume that attacker queries have out-of-distribution (OOD) samples, enabling them to detect and disrupt suspicious inputs. However, this assumption is increasingly unreliable, as modern models are trained on diverse datasets and attackers often operate under limited query budgets. As a result, the effectiveness of these defenses is significantly compromised in realistic deployment scenarios. To address this gap, we propose MISLEADER (enseMbles of dIStiLled modEls Against moDel ExtRaction), a novel defense strategy that does not rely on OOD assumptions. MISLEADER formulates model protection as a bilevel optimization problem that simultaneously preserves predictive fidelity on benign inputs and reduces extractability by potential clone models. Our framework combines data augmentation to simulate attacker queries with an ensemble of heterogeneous distilled models to improve robustness and diversity. We further provide a tractable approximation algorithm and derive theoretical error bounds to characterize defense effectiveness. Extensive experiments across various settings validate the utility-preserving and extraction-resistant properties of our proposed defense strategy. Our code is available at https://github.com/LabRAI/MISLEADER.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2025

New User Event Prediction Through the Lens of Causal Inference

Modeling and analysis for event series generated by users of heterogeneous behavioral patterns are closely involved in our daily lives, including credit card fraud detection, online platform user recommendation, and social network analysis. The most commonly adopted approach to this task is to assign users to behavior-based categories and analyze each of them separately. However, this requires extensive data to fully understand the user behavior, presenting challenges in modeling newcomers without significant historical knowledge. In this work, we propose a novel discrete event prediction framework for new users with limited history, without needing to know the user's category. We treat the user event history as the "treatment" for future events and the user category as the key confounder. Thus, the prediction problem can be framed as counterfactual outcome estimation, where each event is re-weighted by its inverse propensity score. We demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed framework with a numerical simulation study and two real-world applications, including Netflix rating prediction and seller contact prediction for customer support at Amazon.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Uncertainty-Aware Robust Learning on Noisy Graphs

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have excelled in various graph learning tasks, particularly node classification. However, their performance is often hampered by noisy measurements in real-world graphs, which can corrupt critical patterns in the data. To address this, we propose a novel uncertainty-aware graph learning framework inspired by distributionally robust optimization. Specifically, we use a graph neural network-based encoder to embed the node features and find the optimal node embeddings by minimizing the worst-case risk through a minimax formulation. Such an uncertainty-aware learning process leads to improved node representations and a more robust graph predictive model that effectively mitigates the impact of uncertainty arising from data noise. Our experimental results demonstrate superior predictive performance over baselines across noisy scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Recurrent Neural Goodness-of-Fit Test for Time Series

Time series data are crucial across diverse domains such as finance and healthcare, where accurate forecasting and decision-making rely on advanced modeling techniques. While generative models have shown great promise in capturing the intricate dynamics inherent in time series, evaluating their performance remains a major challenge. Traditional evaluation metrics fall short due to the temporal dependencies and potential high dimensionality of the features. In this paper, we propose the REcurrent NeurAL (RENAL) Goodness-of-Fit test, a novel and statistically rigorous framework for evaluating generative time series models. By leveraging recurrent neural networks, we transform the time series into conditionally independent data pairs, enabling the application of a chi-square-based goodness-of-fit test to the temporal dependencies within the data. This approach offers a robust, theoretically grounded solution for assessing the quality of generative models, particularly in settings with limited time sequences. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method across both synthetic and real-world datasets, outperforming existing methods in terms of reliability and accuracy. Our method fills a critical gap in the evaluation of time series generative models, offering a tool that is both practical and adaptable to high-stakes applications.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Black-Box Optimization with Implicit Constraints for Public Policy

Black-box optimization (BBO) has become increasingly relevant for tackling complex decision-making problems, especially in public policy domains such as police redistricting. However, its broader application in public policymaking is hindered by the complexity of defining feasible regions and the high-dimensionality of decisions. This paper introduces a novel BBO framework, termed as the Conditional And Generative Black-box Optimization (CageBO). This approach leverages a conditional variational autoencoder to learn the distribution of feasible decisions, enabling a two-way mapping between the original decision space and a simplified, constraint-free latent space. The CageBO efficiently handles the implicit constraints often found in public policy applications, allowing for optimization in the latent space while evaluating objectives in the original space. We validate our method through a case study on large-scale police redistricting problems in Atlanta, Georgia. Our results reveal that our CageBO offers notable improvements in performance and efficiency compared to the baselines.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Sequential Change Point Detection via Denoising Score Matching

Sequential change-point detection plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, where timely identification of distributional shifts can greatly mitigate adverse outcomes. Classical methods commonly rely on parametric density assumptions of pre- and post-change distributions, limiting their effectiveness for high-dimensional, complex data streams. This paper proposes a score-based CUSUM change-point detection, in which the score functions of the data distribution are estimated by injecting noise and applying denoising score matching. We consider both offline and online versions of score estimation. Through theoretical analysis, we demonstrate that denoising score matching can enhance detection power by effectively controlling the injected noise scale. Finally, we validate the practical efficacy of our method through numerical experiments on two synthetic datasets and a real-world earthquake precursor detection task, demonstrating its effectiveness in challenging scenarios.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Conditional Generative Modeling for High-dimensional Marked Temporal Point Processes

Point processes offer a versatile framework for sequential event modeling. However, the computational challenges and constrained representational power of the existing point process models have impeded their potential for wider applications. This limitation becomes especially pronounced when dealing with event data that is associated with multi-dimensional or high-dimensional marks such as texts or images. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel event-generation framework for modeling point processes with high-dimensional marks. We aim to capture the distribution of events without explicitly specifying the conditional intensity or probability density function. Instead, we use a conditional generator that takes the history of events as input and generates the high-quality subsequent event that is likely to occur given the prior observations. The proposed framework offers a host of benefits, including considerable representational power to capture intricate dynamics in multi- or even high-dimensional event space, as well as exceptional efficiency in learning the model and generating samples. Our numerical results demonstrate superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Political-LLM: Large Language Models in Political Science

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted in political science tasks such as election prediction, sentiment analysis, policy impact assessment, and misinformation detection. Meanwhile, the need to systematically understand how LLMs can further revolutionize the field also becomes urgent. In this work, we--a multidisciplinary team of researchers spanning computer science and political science--present the first principled framework termed Political-LLM to advance the comprehensive understanding of integrating LLMs into computational political science. Specifically, we first introduce a fundamental taxonomy classifying the existing explorations into two perspectives: political science and computational methodologies. In particular, from the political science perspective, we highlight the role of LLMs in automating predictive and generative tasks, simulating behavior dynamics, and improving causal inference through tools like counterfactual generation; from a computational perspective, we introduce advancements in data preparation, fine-tuning, and evaluation methods for LLMs that are tailored to political contexts. We identify key challenges and future directions, emphasizing the development of domain-specific datasets, addressing issues of bias and fairness, incorporating human expertise, and redefining evaluation criteria to align with the unique requirements of computational political science. Political-LLM seeks to serve as a guidebook for researchers to foster an informed, ethical, and impactful use of Artificial Intelligence in political science. Our online resource is available at: http://political-llm.org/.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Counterfactual Generative Models for Time-Varying Treatments

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially increased number of possible counterfactual outcomes. Furthermore, in modern applications, the outcomes are high-dimensional and conventional average treatment effect estimation fails to capture disparities in individuals. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel conditional generative framework capable of producing counterfactual samples under time-varying treatment, without the need for explicit density estimation. Our method carefully addresses the distribution mismatch between the observed and counterfactual distributions via a loss function based on inverse probability re-weighting, and supports integration with state-of-the-art conditional generative models such as the guided diffusion and conditional variational autoencoder. We present a thorough evaluation of our method using both synthetic and real-world data. Our results demonstrate that our method is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual samples and outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Assessing Electricity Service Unfairness with Transfer Counterfactual Learning

Energy justice is a growing area of interest in interdisciplinary energy research. However, identifying systematic biases in the energy sector remains challenging due to confounding variables, intricate heterogeneity in counterfactual effects, and limited data availability. First, this paper demonstrates how one can evaluate counterfactual unfairness in a power system by analyzing the average causal effect of a specific protected attribute. Subsequently, we use subgroup analysis to handle model heterogeneity and introduce a novel method for estimating counterfactual unfairness based on transfer learning, which helps to alleviate the data scarcity in each subgroup. In our numerical analysis, we apply our method to a unique large-scale customer-level power outage data set and investigate the counterfactual effect of demographic factors, such as income and age of the population, on power outage durations. Our results indicate that low-income and elderly-populated areas consistently experience longer power outages under both daily and post-disaster operations, and such discrimination is exacerbated under severe conditions. These findings suggest a widespread, systematic issue of injustice in the power service systems and emphasize the necessity for focused interventions in disadvantaged communities.

cs.LG↗