arXiv subjects

Shuze Daniel Liu

Publications and source records attributed to Shuze Daniel Liu.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Efficient Policy Evaluation with Offline Data Informed Behavior Policy Design

Online Monte Carlo evaluation is a fundamental tool for assessing policy performance in reinforcement learning and sequential decision-making problems arising in operations research. However, achieving accurate estimates often requires extensive online interaction with the environment, which can be costly or impractical in many real-world settings. In this paper, we develop a framework that improves the sample efficiency of online Monte Carlo estimators while preserving unbiasedness. We first derive a closed-form optimal behavior policy that minimizes estimator variance under unbiasedness constraints. We then propose practical algorithms for learning the proposed behavior policy from previously collected offline data, enabling improved online evaluation without requiring estimation of the environment transition model. We provide theoretical analysis that quantifies the resulting variance reduction and analyzes the impact of approximation errors. Empirical studies across diverse environments demonstrate substantial improvements in online sample efficiency compared with standard on-policy Monte Carlo evaluation and existing baseline methods. Our results provide a unified framework for optimal behavior policy design in off-policy evaluation, with applications to reinforcement learning and operations research.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Learning to Sell: Reinforcement Learning for Strategic Large Language Model Agents in Multi-Product Markets

Autonomous large language model (LLM) agents operating in multi-product markets must make sequential decisions under information asymmetry and resource constraints. We develop a machine learning approach for training such agents to act effectively as sellers in a multi-item bargaining environment, where a seller concurrently negotiates a catalog of substitutable assets across a pool of independent buyers. Buyers hold private, heterogeneous valuations across products, and each can purchase at most one item. Facing limits on total communication turns, the seller must dynamically match buyers with the most profitable products considering their private valuations, while strategically allocating its limited interaction budget toward combinations of greater potential value. We formalize this problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process using a structured, four-part message protocol that maps natural language into a parsable and regulated decision space. Using this formalization, we design a post-training method using Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). To evaluate this framework, we construct a multidimensional metric suite that quantifies constraint adherence, seller surplus extraction, and allocation quality. Our trained seller agent learns to match limited inventory to buyers more effectively, matching or outperforming trillion-parameter frontier models in both seller surplus extraction and buyer-product allocation quality. Finally, these learned strategies generalize robustly to unseen market structures, correlated valuation distributions, and price ranges not encountered during training.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

OR-Transformer: Scaling Real-Time Decision-Making to 1,000 Items

Modern supply chain operations can require coordinating replenishment across thousands of heterogeneous items under correlated stochastic demand, heterogeneous lead times, and shared fixed ordering costs, yielding observation spaces exceeding $10^4$ dimensions. At this scale, rolling-horizon stochastic mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs) become prohibitively slow, while standard reinforcement learning (RL) methods face increasingly challenging credit assignment in high-dimensional action spaces. We introduce OR-Transformer, a deep reinforcement learning framework for joint replenishment under stochastic demand, with an item-permutation-equivariant Transformer architecture and pathwise-gradient training through the inventory dynamics. Across problem sizes up to 1,024 inventory items, OR-Transformer increasingly outperforms learning-based and rolling-horizon MILP baselines as scale grows. It also reduces online decision-making time by over 4 million times relative to MILP solvers, enabling real-time, large-scale deep RL in supply chain operations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Robust Data-Collection Policy Learning for Low-Variance Online Policy Evaluation

In reinforcement learning policy evaluation, classic on-policy methods often suffer from high variance when estimating policy performance. To mitigate this issue, behavior policy search has been proposed to learn data-collecting policies tailored to reduce online evaluation variance. However, these approaches do not account for uncertainties in the transition functions. In practice, simulator transitions often differ from the real world due to modeling errors or approximation limitations. As a result, behavior policies trained in simulation may still yield high variance when deployed in real environments, leading to costly reliance on real-world evaluation samples. In this work, we propose a double-loop gradient-based algorithm for learning behavior policies that are both efficient and robust to transition uncertainty. Theoretically, we derive novel transition-variance gradient expressions and establish global convergence guarantees for the algorithm. Numerically, we demonstrate that our method is less sensitive to transition perturbations than existing approaches, providing supportive evidence for its practical utility.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Strategic Bargaining in Multi-Buyer Markets: Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards for LLM Negotiations

Negotiation is a fundamental strategic interaction in management science, characterized by agents attempting to reach agreements while protecting private information, such as reservation costs and hidden valuations. A prevalent yet complex scenario involves a single seller negotiating concurrently with multiple buyers, each possessing heterogeneous, private budgets. In such settings, constrained by a limited number of communication turns, the seller must balance exploring the broader market to discover the highest valuation with concentrating sufficient turns on a single target buyer to secure the best possible outcome. Our analysis reveals a significant gap in standard Large Language Models (LLMs): while these models are linguistically proficient, they fail to act as effective economic decision-makers. Specifically, they exhibit a failure to explore the buyer pool, often fixating on the current highest bid rather than strategically investigating the market to discover latent high valuations. In this paper, we propose a specialized training recipe using Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). By anchoring the reward function to objective economic outcomes, the strategic balance between market discovery and surplus extraction emerges natively through the learning process. Our results demonstrate that the trained seller undergoes a multi-stage strategic evolution, learning to leverage price anchoring and strategic probing to identify more profitable counterparties. The agent extracts a substantially higher surplus than frontier models by both improving its persuasive bargaining skills and consistently closing deals with high-value buyers. Finally, we show that our seller strategies generalize robustly to unseen buyer negotiation styles and budget distributions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Convergence of Two-Timescale Markovian Stochastic Approximations with Applications in Reinforcement Learning

This work studies the convergence of two-timescale stochastic approximations (SA), a class of iterative algorithms that update two sets of parameters in fast and slow timescales respectively. Notable examples of two-timescale SA in reinforcement learning (RL) include temporal difference learning with gradient correction (TDC) and actor-critic methods. Previously, the stability (i.e., boundedness) and convergence of two-timescale SA were only established under i.i.d. noise. This work instead establishes the stability and convergence of two-timescale SA under Markovian noise, a setup that is more realistic in RL. Notably, we do not need to use any projection operator and the noise does not need to live in a compact space. Our key technical novelty is to control the fast timescale parameter with the running max of the slow timescale parameter, instead of with the current slow timescale parameter, as most prior works do. As a key application, we establish the first almost sure convergence of TDC with eligibility traces under off-policy learning with linear function approximation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MathlibLemma: Folklore Lemma Generation and Benchmark for Formal Mathematics

While the ecosystem of Lean and Mathlib has enjoyed celebrated success in formal mathematical reasoning with the help of large language models (LLMs), the absence of many folklore lemmas in Mathlib remains a persistent barrier that limits Lean's usability as an everyday tool for mathematicians like \LaTeX{} or Maple. To address this, we introduce MathlibLemma, a modular LLM-based pipeline for automated folklore-lemma mining: the discovery, formalization, and proving of reusable intermediate facts that mathematicians often take for granted but that are not always present in formal libraries. At its core, MathlibLemma proactively mines the missing connective tissue of mathematics. The pipeline produces a verified library of folklore-style lemmas, including 1,506 Lean-checked proofs that pass a proof-bypass screen; a small curated pilot subset has also been merged into Mathlib, providing external evidence that selected outputs can meet expert library standards. Leveraging this pipeline, we further construct the MathlibLemma benchmark, a suite of 4,028 non-trivial type-checked Lean statements spanning a broad range of mathematical domains. By transforming the role of LLMs from passive consumers to active contributors, this work takes a step toward AI-assisted expansion of formal mathematical libraries.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2026

Beyond Linear Attention: Softmax Transformers Implement In-Context Reinforcement Learning

In-context reinforcement learning (ICRL) studies agents that, after pretraining, adapt to new tasks by conditioning on additional context without parameter updates. Existing theoretical analyses of ICRL largely rely on linear attention, which replaces the softmax function in the standard attention with an identity mapping. This paper provides the first theoretical understanding of ICRL without making the unrealistic linear attention simplification. In particular, we consider the standard softmax attention used in practice. We show that, with certain parameters, the layerwise forward pass of a Transformer with such softmax attention is equivalent to iterative updates of a weighted softmax temporal difference (TD) learning algorithm. Here, weighted softmax TD is a new RL algorithm that performs policy evaluation in kernel space and adopts both linear TD and tabular TD as special cases. We also prove that under a certain contraction condition, the policy evaluation error decays as the number of layers grows, with the identified parameters above. Finally, we prove that those parameters are a global minimizer of a pretraining loss, explaining their emergence in our numerical experiments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Offline Two-Player Zero-Sum Markov Games with KL Regularization

We study the problem of learning Nash equilibria in offline two-player zero-sum Markov games. While existing approaches often rely on explicit pessimism to address distribution shift, we show that KL regularization alone suffices to stabilize learning and guarantee convergence. We first introduce Regularized Offline Sequential Equilibrium (ROSE), a theoretical framework that achieves a fast $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/n)$ convergence rate under \textit{unilateral concentrability}, improving over the standard $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\sqrt{n})$ rates in unregularized settings. We then propose Sequential Offline Self-play Mirror Descent (SOS-MD), a practical model-free algorithm based on least-squares value estimation and iterative self-play updates. We prove that the last iterate of SOS-MD attains the same $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/n)$ statistical rate up to a vanishing optimization error of order $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\sqrt{T})$ in the number of self-play iterations $T$.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Predicting Plasticity in Deep Continual Learning: A Theoretical Perspective

Deep continual learning requires models to adapt to new tasks without retraining from scratch. However, neural networks can lose their ability to adapt to new tasks after training on previous ones, a phenomenon known as loss of plasticity. There have been several explanations and diagnostics proposed for plasticity loss. Motivated by the philosophy that "all models are wrong, but some are useful", we ask: can existing diagnostics predict a neural network's plasticity? In this work, we take a practical view to interpret plasticity as trainability, i.e., a neural network's future optimization gain on a target task. We first take a theoretical approach, showing, by constructing a few counterexamples, that some widely adopted diagnostics of plasticity, including representation rank and neural tangent kernel rank, can fail to predict the loss of trainability in both regression and classification settings. We instead propose a novel metric, called optimization readiness, which combines gradient strength and gradient reliability. We prove that optimization readiness lower bounds one-step optimization gain under standard smoothness assumptions, providing a theoretical guarantee for its predictive power. Empirically, we show that across commonly used deep continual learning settings, such as Slowly-Changing Regression and Permuted MNIST, optimization readiness more reliably ranks checkpoints by trainability than prior diagnostics, even with substantially fewer samples.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

AstroAlertBench: Evaluating the Accuracy, Reasoning, and Honesty of Multimodal LLMs in Astronomical Classification

Modern astronomical observatories generate a massive volume of multimodal data, creating a critical bottleneck for expert human review. While multimodal large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in interpreting complex visual and textual inputs, their ability to perform specialized scientific classification while providing interpretable reasoning remains understudied. We introduce AstroAlertBench, a comprehensive multimodal benchmark designed to evaluate LLM performance in astronomical event review along a three-stage logical chain: metadata grounding, scientific reasoning, and hierarchical classification over five categories. We use a pilot sample of 1,500 real-world alerts from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), a wide-field survey that scans the northern sky to detect transient astronomical events. On this dataset, we benchmark 13 frontier closed-source and open-weight LLMs that support visual input. Our results reveal that high accuracy does not always align with model ``honesty,'' defined as the ability to self-evaluate its reasoning, which affects its reliability as a real-world assistant. We further initialize a human-in-the-loop evaluation protocol as a precursor to future community-scale participation. Together, AstroAlertBench provides a framework for developing calibrated and interpretable astronomical assistants.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Instructing LLMs to Negotiate using Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards

The recent advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has established their potential as autonomous interactive agents. However, they often struggle in strategic games of incomplete information, such as bilateral price negotiation. In this paper, we investigate if Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) can effectively teach LLMs to negotiate. Specifically, we explore the strategic behaviors that emerge during the learning process. We introduce a framework that trains a mid-sized buyer agent against a regulated LLM seller across a wide distribution of real-world products. By grounding reward signals directly in the maximization of economic surplus and strict adherence to private budget constraints, we reveal a novel four-phase strategic evolution. The agent progresses from naive bargaining to using aggressive starting prices, moves through a phase of deadlock, and ultimately develops sophisticated persuasive skills. Our results demonstrate that this verifiable training allows a 30B agent to significantly outperform frontier models over ten times its size in extracting surplus. Furthermore, the trained agent generalizes robustly to stronger counterparties unseen during training and remains effective even when facing hostile, adversarial seller personas.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

The ODE Method for Stochastic Approximation and Reinforcement Learning with Markovian Noise

Stochastic approximation is a class of algorithms that update a vector iteratively, incrementally, and stochastically, including, e.g., stochastic gradient descent and temporal difference learning. One fundamental challenge in analyzing a stochastic approximation algorithm is to establish its stability, i.e., to show that the stochastic vector iterates are bounded almost surely. In this paper, we extend the celebrated Borkar-Meyn theorem for stability from the Martingale difference noise setting to the Markovian noise setting, which greatly improves its applicability in reinforcement learning, especially in those off-policy reinforcement learning algorithms with linear function approximation and eligibility traces. Central to our analysis is the diminishing asymptotic rate of change of a few functions, which is implied by both a form of the strong law of large numbers and a form of the law of the iterated logarithm.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Doubly Optimal Policy Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning

Policy evaluation estimates the performance of a policy by (1) collecting data from the environment and (2) processing raw data into a meaningful estimate. Due to the sequential nature of reinforcement learning, any improper data-collecting policy or data-processing method substantially deteriorates the variance of evaluation results over long time steps. Thus, policy evaluation often suffers from large variance and requires massive data to achieve the desired accuracy. In this work, we design an optimal combination of data-collecting policy and data-processing baseline. Theoretically, we prove our doubly optimal policy evaluation method is unbiased and guaranteed to have lower variance than previously best-performing methods. Empirically, compared with previous works, we show our method reduces variance substantially and achieves superior empirical performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Efficient Policy Evaluation with Safety Constraint for Reinforcement Learning

In reinforcement learning, classic on-policy evaluation methods often suffer from high variance and require massive online data to attain the desired accuracy. Previous studies attempt to reduce evaluation variance by searching for or designing proper behavior policies to collect data. However, these approaches ignore the safety of such behavior policies -- the designed behavior policies have no safety guarantee and may lead to severe damage during online executions. In this paper, to address the challenge of reducing variance while ensuring safety simultaneously, we propose an optimal variance-minimizing behavior policy under safety constraints. Theoretically, while ensuring safety constraints, our evaluation method is unbiased and has lower variance than on-policy evaluation. Empirically, our method is the only existing method to achieve both substantial variance reduction and safety constraint satisfaction. Furthermore, we show our method is even superior to previous methods in both variance reduction and execution safety.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Efficient Multi-Policy Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning

To unbiasedly evaluate multiple target policies, the dominant approach among RL practitioners is to run and evaluate each target policy separately. However, this evaluation method is far from efficient because samples are not shared across policies, and running target policies to evaluate themselves is actually not optimal. In this paper, we address these two weaknesses by designing a tailored behavior policy to reduce the variance of estimators across all target policies. Theoretically, we prove that executing this behavior policy with manyfold fewer samples outperforms on-policy evaluation on every target policy under characterized conditions. Empirically, we show our estimator has a substantially lower variance compared with previous best methods and achieves state-of-the-art performance in a broad range of environments.

cs.LG↗