arXiv subjects

Si Zhang

Publications and source records attributed to Si Zhang.

25 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Do We Really Need Complicated Model Architectures For Temporal Networks?

Recurrent neural network (RNN) and self-attention mechanism (SAM) are the de facto methods to extract spatial-temporal information for temporal graph learning. Interestingly, we found that although both RNN and SAM could lead to a good performance, in practice neither of them is always necessary. In this paper, we propose GraphMixer, a conceptually and technically simple architecture that consists of three components: (1) a link-encoder that is only based on multi-layer perceptrons (MLP) to summarize the information from temporal links, (2) a node-encoder that is only based on neighbor mean-pooling to summarize node information, and (3) an MLP-based link classifier that performs link prediction based on the outputs of the encoders. Despite its simplicity, GraphMixer attains an outstanding performance on temporal link prediction benchmarks with faster convergence and better generalization performance. These results motivate us to rethink the importance of simpler model architecture.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A Novel Feeder-level Microgrid Unit Commitment Algorithm Considering Cold-load Pickup, Phase Balancing, and Reconfiguration

This paper presents a novel 2-stage microgrid unit commitment (Microgrid-UC) algorithm considering cold-load pickup (CLPU) effects, three-phase load balancing requirements, and feasible reconfiguration options. Microgrid-UC schedules the operation of switches, generators, battery energy storage systems, and demand response resources to supply 3-phase unbalanced loads in an islanded microgrid for multiple days. A performance-based CLPU model is developed to estimate additional energy needs of CLPU so that CLPU can be formulated into the traditional 2-stage UC scheduling process. A per-phase demand response budget term is added to the 1st stage UC objective function to meet 3-phase load unbalance limits. To reduce computational complexity in the 1st stage UC, we replace the spanning tree method with a feasible reconfiguration topology list method. The proposed algorithm is developed on a modified IEEE 123-bus system and tested on the real-time simulation testbed using actual load and PV data. Simulation results show that Microgrid-UC successfully accounts for CLPU, phase imbalance, and feeder reconfiguration requirements.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Retrieval Based Time Series Forecasting

Time series data appears in a variety of applications such as smart transportation and environmental monitoring. One of the fundamental problems for time series analysis is time series forecasting. Despite the success of recent deep time series forecasting methods, they require sufficient observation of historical values to make accurate forecasting. In other words, the ratio of the output length (or forecasting horizon) to the sum of the input and output lengths should be low enough (e.g., 0.3). As the ratio increases (e.g., to 0.8), the uncertainty for the forecasting accuracy increases significantly. In this paper, we show both theoretically and empirically that the uncertainty could be effectively reduced by retrieving relevant time series as references. In the theoretical analysis, we first quantify the uncertainty and show its connections to the Mean Squared Error (MSE). Then we prove that models with references are easier to learn than models without references since the retrieved references could reduce the uncertainty. To empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the retrieval based time series forecasting models, we introduce a simple yet effective two-stage method, called ReTime consisting of a relational retrieval and a content synthesis. We also show that ReTime can be easily adapted to the spatial-temporal time series and time series imputation settings. Finally, we evaluate ReTime on real-world datasets to demonstrate its effectiveness.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

A TCN-based Hybrid Forecasting Framework for Hours-ahead Utility-scale PV Forecasting

This paper presents a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) based hybrid PV forecasting framework for enhancing hours-ahead utility-scale PV forecasting. The hybrid framework consists of two forecasting models: a physics-based trend forecasting (TF) model and a data-driven cloud-event forecasting (CF) model. Three TCNs are integrated in the framework for: i) blending the inputs from different Numerical Weather Prediction sources for the TF model to achieve superior performance on forecasting hourly PV profiles, ii) capturing spatial-temporal correlations between detector sites and the target site in the CF model to achieve more accurate forecast of intra-hour PV power drops, and iii) reconciling TF and CF results to obtain coherent hours-ahead PV forecast with both hourly trends and intra-hour fluctuations well preserved. To automatically identify the most contributive neighboring sites for forming a detector network, a scenario-based correlation analysis method is developed, which significantly improves the capability of the CF model on capturing large power fluctuations caused by cloud movements. The framework is developed, tested, and validated using actual PV data collected from 95 PV farms in North Carolina. Simulation results show that the performance of 6 hours ahead PV power forecasting is improved by approximately 20% compared with state-of-the-art methods.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2021

Reinforcement Learning for Volt-Var Control: A Novel Two-stage Progressive Training Strategy

This paper develops a reinforcement learning (RL)approach to solve a cooperative, multi-agent Volt-Var Control (VVC) problem for high solar penetration distribution systems. The ingenuity of our RL method lies in a novel two-stage progressive training strategy that can effectively improve training speed and convergence of the machine learning algorithm. In Stage 1(individual training), while holding all the other agents inactive, we separately train each agent to obtain its own optimal VVC actions in the action space: {consume, generate, do-nothing}. In Stage 2 (cooperative training), all agents are trained again coordinatively to share VVC responsibility. Rewards and costs in our RL scheme include (i) a system-level reward (for taking an action), (ii) an agent-level reward (for doing-nothing), and(iii) an agent-level action cost function. This new framework allows rewards to be dynamically allocated to each agent based on their contribution while accounting for the trade-off between control effectiveness and action cost. The proposed methodology is tested and validated in a modified IEEE 123-bus system using realistic PV and load profiles. Simulation results confirm that the proposed approach is robust and computationally efficient; and it achieves desirable volt-var control performance under a wide range of operation conditions.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

A Meta-learning based Distribution System Load Forecasting Model Selection Framework

This paper presents a meta-learning based, automatic distribution system load forecasting model selection framework. The framework includes the following processes: feature extraction, candidate model labeling, offline training, and online model recommendation. Using user load forecasting needs as input features, multiple meta-learners are used to rank the available load forecast models based on their forecasting accuracy. Then, a scoring-voting mechanism weights recommendations from each meta-leaner to make the final recommendations. Heterogeneous load forecasting tasks with different temporal and technical requirements at different load aggregation levels are set up to train, validate, and test the performance of the proposed framework. Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of the meta-learning based approach is satisfactory in both seen and unseen forecasting tasks.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

A Load Switching Group based Feeder-level Microgrid Energy Management Algorithm for Service Restoration in Power Distribution System

This paper presents a load switching group based energy management system (LSG-EMS) for operating microgrids on a distribution feeder powered by one or multiple grid-forming distributed energy resources. Loads on a distribution feeder are divided into load switching groups that can be remotely switched on and off. The LSG-EMS algorithm, formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem, has an objective function of maximizing the served loads while minimizing the total number of switching actions. A new set of topology constraints are developed for allowing multiple microgrids to be formed on the feeder and selecting the optimal supply path. Customer comfort is accounted for by maximizing the supply duration in the customer preferred service period and enforcing a minimum service duration. The proposed method is demonstrated on a modified IEEE 33-bus system using actual customer data. Simulation results show that the LSG-EMS successfully coordinates multiple grid-forming sources by selecting an optimal supply topology that maximizes the supply period of both the critical and noncritical loads while minimizing customer service interruptions in the service restoration process.

eess.SY↗