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Simeon Bird

Publications and source records attributed to Simeon Bird.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

The lifetimes and properties of Little Red Dots in the AMBRA simulation

We identify and analyze the little red dots (LRDs) in the AMBRA cosmological hydrodynamic simulation, by producing mock observations of the galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGN) between redshifts 5 and 8. We produce these mock observations with both a standard AGN emission model, and a ``gas-enshrouded'' model, and find that the presence of a gas-enshrouded AGN is instrumental to the reproduction of dim LRDs (F444W magnitude $>$ 26.0). We find a steeper decrease in LRD density between $z=5$ and $z=8$ within AMBRA than seen in observations, resulting in a relative underproduction of LRDs beyond $z\sim6$ in AMBRA. With the addition of unresolved AGN variability, the decline with redshift flattens, and the LRD redshift evolution in AMBRA becomes broadly consistent with other theoretical datasets, and closer to that seen in observations. We find that the LRDs in AMBRA are pre-existing black hole--galaxy systems that are undergoing an LRD phase, selected primarily by the brightness of the AGN relative to its host. While the exact duration of these LRD phases is not possible to determine due to the unresolved nature of the AGN environment, we use the available time-series data to place limits on the lifetimes of the LRDs in AMBRA. We find that the vast majority of LRDs in AMBRA have lifetimes between $\sim3$ and $\sim 300$ Myr with LRD lifetime increasing with both black hole and host galaxy mass. The lower mass LRDs are more dependent on housing a gas-enshrouded AGN, and have shorter lifetimes ($\rm \sim30~Myr$). The higher mass LRDs are less sensitive to their AGN environment, but require more compact host galaxies, and have longer lifetimes ($\rm \sim100~Myr$).

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Lyα forest bounds on sterile neutrino production via neutrino self-interactions

Sterile neutrinos in the keV mass range have long been considered a well-motivated dark matter (DM) candidate. In this work, we explore a sterile neutrino production mechanism through active neutrino self-interactions in the early universe, assuming that they constitute the full DM abundance. We implement a self-consistent treatment of the sterile-neutrino free streaming and the active-neutrino self-interactions on structure formation, which yield a unique scale-dependent modification to the linear matter power spectrum. We then set bounds on this scenario using a combination of the cosmic microwave background and Ly$α$ forest constraints. Specifically, we utilize the two recent likelihoods derived from eBOSS data: (i) an effective field theory (EFT) based full-shape likelihood and (ii) a compressed likelihood obtained from the PRIYA-simulation emulator. We produce some of the most stringent observational constraints to date on sterile neutrino DM, comparable to the bounds from the most stringent laboratory constraints.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

FLARE MCMC: Fidelity-based Layer-Adaptive REcursive proposals for MCMC

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) requires only the ability to evaluate the likelihood, making it a common technique for inference in complex models. However, it can have a slow mixing rate, requiring the generation of many samples to obtain good estimates and an overall high computational cost. FLARE MCMC is a multi-fidelity layered MCMC method that exploits lower-fidelity approximations of the true likelihood calculation to improve mixing and leads to overall faster performance. Such lower-fidelity likelihoods are commonly available in scientific and engineering applications where the model involves a simulation whose resolution or accuracy can be tuned. Our technique uses recursive, layered chains with simple layer tuning; it does not require the likelihood to take any form or have any particular internal mathematical structure. We demonstrate experimentally that FLARE MCMC achieves larger effective sample sizes for the same computational time across different scientific domains including hydrology and cosmology.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Matter Clustering in Astrid: Reduced Baryonic Suppression from Realistic Black Hole Dynamics

Baryonic feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) is often invoked as a major source of suppression in the matter power spectrum, with implications for precision cosmology and the $S_8$ tension. We present Astrid-DMO, the dark matter-only counterpart to the large-volume Astrid hydrodynamical simulation, and measure baryonic effects through $P_{\rm hydro}(k)/P_{\rm DMO}(k)$. We find no significant suppression at $z=0$ and mild suppression at $z=0.2$, weaker than in other state-of-the-art simulations. Using controlled small-volume runs, we identify a key driver of this discrepancy: the treatment of black hole (BH) dynamics. The widely used BH repositioning scheme artificially enhances BH mergers and boosts kinetic AGN feedback (e.g., by a factor of $2$ at $z=1.5$), leading to overly strong suppression. By contrast, a more physical dynamical friction model reduces feedback efficiency and weakens clustering suppression. Consequently, reconciling large-scale structure measurements with cosmic microwave background (CMB)-inferred $Λ$CDM cosmology, while matching observed halo gas fractions, becomes more challenging. Although strengthening AGN feedback can increase suppression, in our model this induces tensions with the observed galaxy stellar mass and AGN luminosity functions. These results sharpen the need for novel mechanisms that can efficiently eject gas from halos without compromising other galaxy properties.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

The ASTRID Simulation at z=0: From Massive Black Holes to Large-scale Structure

We present the $z=0$ results for the cosmological simulation ASTRID. Hosting $2\times 5500^3\approx$ 0.33 trillion particles in a box of $370\, {\rm Mpc}$ per side, ASTRID is one of the largest cosmological hydrodynamic simulations evolved to $z=0$. ASTRID features a large population of massive black holes (MBHs), covering a wide mass range $4\times10^{4}\sim 2\times 10^{11}\ M_{\odot}$. The adopted dynamical friction model provides a relatively accurate description of MBH dynamics, making ASTRID a powerful tool to study MBH growth and mergers in a cosmological context. ASTRID successfully captures the co-evolution of MBHs and their host galaxies, producing $M_{\rm BH}-M_{\star}$ and $M_{\rm BH}-σ$ relations in good agreement with observations. Notably, ASTRID generates scatter in these relations that is more consistent with observations than previous simulations, indicating a more realistic MBH diversity. The galaxy stellar mass function at $z=0$ is generally consistent with observational constraints. When dust attenuation is applied, the galaxy luminosity function also agrees well with observations, and the bimodality in galaxy colors is reproduced as well. ASTRID hosts a large population of massive galaxy groups and clusters: 7 halos have $M_{\rm 200c}>10^{15}\ M_{\odot}$, and 9709 halos have $M_{\rm 200c}>10^{13}\ M_{\odot}$. We quantify the stellar mass content in these halos, and find that the correlations between the stellar and halo mass match well with observational constraints. Finally, we present the $z=0$ power spectra of MBH and galaxies, as well as their bias with respect to the matter power spectrum. We find that MBHs with $M_{\rm BH}\geq 10^{8}\ M_{\odot}$ and galaxies with $M_{\star}\geq 10^{10.5}\ M_{\odot}$ serve as good tracers of large-scale structure.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Small-scale Lyman alpha forest cosmology with PRIYA: Constraints from XQ100 and KODIAQ-SQUAD one-dimensional flux power spectra

We present a new cosmological analysis of the small-scale Lyman alpha forest 1D flux power spectrum (P1D) using high-resolution quasar spectra from XQ100 and KODIAQ-SQUAD, interpreted through the PRIYA emulator. PRIYA is a suite of galaxy formation simulations spanning a range of cosmological and inhomogeneous HeII reionization parameters, enabling few-percent-level predictions of the P1D. These datasets, probing down to $k \sim 6\,h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ at $z = 2-5$, offer access to non-linear scales inaccessible to large-volume surveys like eBOSS. We find that the XQ100 P1D yields constraints on the primordial power spectrum parameters $(A_P, n_P)$ at pivot scale $k_0 = 0.78\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ that are consistent with PRIYA results from eBOSS DR14 and Planck CMB, albeit with broader uncertainties. Notably, this is achieved without external IGM temperature data, showing that XQ100 alone provides stronger constraints on thermal history than eBOSS DR14. In contrast, the KODIAQ-SQUAD P1D favors a significantly higher $A_P$ value, driven by the selection bias toward high-column density absorbers (HCDs). We also find that the P1D at $k > 0.045\,\mathrm{s/km}$ is more sensitive to Lyman limit system contamination and thermal history. When imposing a prior on $(A_P, n_P)$, the reduced $χ^2$ remains unchanged and the inferred mean IGM temperature is unaffected, suggesting that cosmological and thermal parameters are largely sensitive to different scales. The XQ100 P1D therefore provides complementary information on thermal nuisance parameters, which can be jointly fit with eBOSS or DESI P1D measurements to improve cosmological constraints.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

A stellar dynamical mass measurement of an inactive black hole at redshift 2

Supermassive black holes and their host galaxies grow together over time, producing correlations between the black hole mass and various galaxy properties. Determining the evolution of these correlations requires precise measurements of the masses of distant black holes. We observe the gravitationally lensed quiescent galaxy MRG-M0138, at redshift 1.95, using JWST integral field spectroscopy to spatially resolve the kinematics of stars within the black hole's sphere of influence. By using a foreground lens model and fitting stellar dynamical models, we determine the mass of its inactive black hole, $M_{\bullet}=6.0^{+2.1}_{-1.7}\times10^9$ solar masses. Comparing this measurement to local galaxies, we find that $M_{\bullet}$ is higher than expected given the galaxy's bulge mass, but consistent with the correlation with stellar velocity dispersion.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

The Galaxy Luminosity Functions in ASTRID: Predictions for LSST

We present validated and forward-modelled galaxy luminosity functions and photometric predictions for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time using the ASTRID cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. Galaxy magnitudes are computed by combining stellar population synthesis modeling with a physically motivated dust attenuation prescription in which the optical depth scales with metal surface density. The dust model is calibrated at z = 0 using SDSS luminosity functions and tested at intermediate redshifts (z = 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5) in rest-frame B, V , R, and I bands. We find that the attenuated luminosity functions reproduce observed galaxy statistics across multiple wavelengths and redshifts. Using this calibrated framework, we construct LSST-ready mock photometric catalogs over 0 <= z <= 2 in steps of Delta z = 0.1, containing ~378 million galaxies. We provide predicted apparent-magnitude luminosity functions in the LSST ugrizy bands, derive best-fit Schechter parameters as a compact analytic representation, and compute differential and cumulative galaxy number counts as a function of survey depth from Year 1 to Year 10.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Exploring the impact of AGN feedback model variations on the Lyman-$α$ Forest Flux Power Spectrum

We study the effects of varying different Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) feedback parameters on the Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest 1D transmitted flux power spectrum (P1D). We use the Cosmological and Astrophysics with Machine Learning Simulations (CAMELS) suite to explore variations on the Simba simulation AGN feedback model. The parameters explored include AGN momentum flux, AGN jet speed, supermassive black hole (SMBH) radiative efficiency, jet velocity threshold, and minimum SMBH mass needed to produce jet feedback. Although all parameters affect the P1D, this work explores the radiative efficiency, jet velocity threshold, and minimum SMBH mass in this context for the first time and finds the following results: Primarily, the most massive SMBHs impact the Ly$α$ forest through the jet feedback mode. While heating AGN jets to the virial temperature at injection aids in the removal of neutral hydrogen from the Ly$α$ forest, this heating also inhibits further jet feedback. Similar behaviors are seen when varying the SMBH radiative efficiency, with higher values resulting in a suppression of SMBH growth and thus a later reduction in AGN feedback and lower values directly reducing the impact of AGN feedback on the Ly$α$ forest P1D. These results imply that increasing the AGN feedback strength in the Simba simulation model suppresses the Ly$α$ forest P1D, but only if the feedback does not impact the number of massive jet producing BHs. Future studies of AGN feedback models will require careful exploration of the unique aspects of the specific subgrid model, and how they interact with one another, for a complete understanding of the potential astrophysical impacts of SMBH feedback.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

First results of AMBRA: Abundant Seeds and Early Mergers as a Pathway to the First Massive Black Holes

AMBRA combines the large cosmological volume and statistical power of ASTRID with the physically motivated gas-based black hole seeding models from BRAHMA. Motivated by JWST's discoveries of massive black holes (BHs) at $z\gtrsim 9$, AMBRA adopts a lenient heavy-seed prescription from the BRAHMA suite, allowing for the formation of $4\times 10^{4-5}\ M_{\odot}$ seeds in halos with star-forming, metal-poor gas. The seeding model is motivated by scenarios in which heavy seeds form through stellar collisions in star clusters or from the rapid growth of Population III remnants. The improved seeding model enables AMBRA to form BH seeds much earlier and more efficiently compared to ASTRID. This significantly enhances early BH growth, producing a $z=8$ BH number density more than an order of magnitude higher than that in ASTRID over the mass range $10^{5-7}\ M_{\odot}$. BHs reaching masses consistent with GN-z11 and CEERS-1019 typically originate in highly compact density peaks and undergo multiple early mergers. In these systems, $\sim50\%$ of BH masses by $z=11$ is from BH mergers, after which gas accretion becomes the dominant growth channel. Without this early merger-driven assembly, ASTRID cannot reproduce the high-mass BH detected by JWST. Our results indicate that abundant early seed formation combined with frequent mergers can explain several JWST massive BH candidates without requiring sustained super-Eddington accretion. As a testable prediction, AMBRA yields $\approx4$ LISA detectable BH merger events per year at $z\geq8$, which is three orders of magnitude higher than that in ASTRID.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Ten-dimensional neural network emulator for the nonlinear matter power spectrum

We present GokuNEmu, a ten-dimensional neural network emulator for the nonlinear matter power spectrum, designed to support next-generation cosmological analyses. Built on the Goku $N$-body simulation suite and the T2N-MusE emulation framework, GokuNEmu predicts the matter power spectrum with $\sim 0.5 \%$ average accuracy for redshifts $0 \leq z \leq 3$ and scales $0.006 \leq k/(h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}) \leq 10$. The emulator models a 10D parameter space that extends beyond $Λ$CDM to include dynamical dark energy (characterized by $w_0$ and $w_a$), massive neutrinos ($\sum m_ν$), the effective number of neutrinos ($N_\text{eff}$), and running of the spectral index ($α_\text{s}$). Its broad parameter coverage, particularly for the extensions, makes it the only matter power spectrum emulator capable of testing recent dynamical dark energy constraints from DESI. In addition, it requires only $\sim $2 milliseconds to predict a single cosmology on a laptop, orders of magnitude faster than existing emulators. These features make GokuNEmu a uniquely powerful tool for interpreting observational data from upcoming surveys such as LSST, Euclid, the Roman Space Telescope, and CSST.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

Design and optimization of neural networks for multifidelity cosmological emulation

Accurate and efficient simulation-based emulators are essential for interpreting cosmological survey data down to nonlinear scales. Multifidelity emulation techniques reduce simulation costs by combining high- and low-fidelity data, but traditional regression methods such as Gaussian processes struggle with scalability in sample size and dimensionality. In this work, we present T2N-MusE, a neural network framework characterized by (i) a novel 2-step multifidelity architecture, (ii) a 2-stage Bayesian hyperparameter optimization, (iii) a 2-phase $k$-fold training strategy, and (iv) a per-$z$ principal component analysis strategy. We apply T2N-MusE to selected data from the Goku simulation suite, covering a 10-dimensional cosmological parameter space, and build emulators for the matter power spectrum over a range of redshifts with different configurations. We find the emulators outperform our earlier Gaussian process models significantly and demonstrate that each of these techniques is efficient in training neural networks or/and effective in improving generalization accuracy. We observe a reduction in the mean error by more than a factor of five and in the worst-case error by approximately a factor of eight in leave-one-out cross-validation, relative to previous work. This framework has been used to build the most powerful emulator for the matter power spectrum, GokuNEmu, and will also be used to construct emulators for other statistics in future.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2026

The Properties of Little Red Dot Galaxies in the ASTRID Simulation

We present simulated counterparts of the ``Little Red Dot'' (LRD) galaxies observed with JWST, using the large cosmological hydrodynamic simulation, ASTRID. We create mock observations of the galaxies ($5 \leq z \leq 8$) in ASTRID, and find seventeen which fit the color and size criteria of LRDs. These LRDs are galaxies with high stellar masses ($\rm log(M_*/M_{\odot}) \geq 9.7$), and massive black holes ($\rm log(M_{BH}/M_{\odot}) \geq 6.8$). The host galaxies are dense, with stellar half mass radii ($\rm 325\,pc \leq r_{{\rm half},*} \leq 620\,pc$), and dust attenuation in the F444W band above 1.25. Their star formation has been recently quenched. They host relatively bright AGN that are dust-obscured and contribute significantly to the rest-frame optical red slope and have relatively low luminosity in the rest-frame ultraviolet, where the host galaxy's stars are more dominant. These LRDs are in an evolutionary phase of miniquenching that is the result of AGN feedback from their massive black holes. The LRDs in ASTRID are bright with F444W magnitudes of $23.5-25.5$. The less massive and fainter galaxies in ASTRID lack the dust concentration necessary to produce the red slope of an LRD, though this could be an effect of limited resolution. Most of the highest Eddington black holes are not LRDs due to insufficient dust attenuation from their host galaxies, which are also experiencing relatively high star formation rates. This results in their spectra being too flat, despite their highly accreting black holes.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

From ASTRID to BRAHMA -- The role of overmassive black holes in little red dots in cosmological simulations

We leverage the overmassive black holes ($\rm M_{BH}/M_{\ast} \approx0.1$) present in a realization of the BRAHMA cosmological hydrodynamic simulation suite to investigate their role in the emission of the unique ``little red dot'' (LRD) objects identified by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). We find that these black holes can produce LRD-like observables when their emission is modeled with a dense gas cloud shrouding the active galactic nucleus (AGN). Between redshifts 5 and 8, we find the number density of LRDs in this simulation to be $\rm 2.04 \pm 0.32 \times 10^{-4} \space Mpc^{-3}$, which is broadly consistent with current estimates for the total LRD population from JWST. Their emission in the rest-frame visible spectrum is dominated by their AGN, which induces the red color indicative of LRDs via a very strong Balmer break. Additionally, the elevated mass of the black holes reduces the temperature of their accretion discs. This shifts the peak of the AGN emission towards longer wavelengths, and increases their brightness in the rest-frame visible spectrum relative to lower mass black holes accreting at the same rate. These simulated LRDs have very minimal dust attenuation ($\rm A_V = 0.21 \pm 0.12$), limiting the amount of dust re-emission that would occur in the infrared, making them very likely to fall below the observed detection limits from observatories like the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA). In contrast to the BRAHMA box, the ASTRID simulation produces systematically smaller black holes and predicts LRD number densities that are more than two orders of magnitude lower than current measurements. We therefore conclude that the presence of black holes that are overmassive relative to their host galaxy, and enshrouded in dense gas, is necessary for AGN-dominated LRD models to reproduce both the observed properties and abundances of JWST LRD populations.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

Connecting current and future dual AGN searches to LISA and PTA gravitational wave detections

Dual active galactic nuclei (DAGN) mark an observable stage of massive black hole (MBH) pairing in galaxy mergers and are precursors to the MBH binaries that generate low-frequency gravitational waves. Using the large-volume ASTRID cosmological simulation, we construct DAGN catalogs matched to current (COSMOS-Web, DESI) and forthcoming (AXIS, Roman) searches. With realistic selection functions applied, ASTRID reproduces observed dual fractions, separations, and host-galaxy properties across redshifts. We predict a substantial population of small-separation (<5 kpc) duals that current surveys fail to capture, indicating that the apparent paucity of sub-kpc systems in COSMOS-Web is driven primarily by selection effects rather than a physical deficit. By following each simulated dual forward in time, we show that dual AGN are robust tracers of MBH mergers: ~30-70% coalesce within $\lesssim 1$ Gyr, and 20-60% of these mergers produce gravitational-wave signals detectable by LISA. Duals accessible to AXIS and Roman are the progenitors of ~10% of low-redshift LISA events and ~30% of the PTA-band stochastic background. Massive green-valley galaxies with moderate-luminosity AGN, together with massive star-forming hosts containing bright quasars at $z>1$, emerge as the most likely environments for imminent MBH binaries. These results provide a unified cosmological framework linking dual AGN demographics, MBH binary formation, and gravitational-wave emission, and they identify concrete, high-priority targets for coordinated electromagnetic and GW searches in upcoming multi-messenger surveys.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

LATIS Data Release: $\sim4200$ Spectra of $z \sim 2-3$ Galaxies, Redshifts, and Intergalactic Medium Tomography Maps

We present the data release of the Ly$α$ Tomography IMACS Survey (LATIS), one of the largest optical spectroscopic surveys of faint high-redshift galaxies. The survey provides 7408 optical spectra of candidate $z \sim 2-3$ galaxies and QSOs in the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey D1, D2 (COSMOS), and D4 fields. The $R \sim 1000$ spectra were obtained using the Inamori Magellan Areal Camera and Spectrograph (IMACS) at the Magellan Baade telescope, with typical integrations of 12 hr. From these spectra, we measured 5575 high-confidence spectroscopic redshifts, of which 4176 are at $z > 1.7$, thereby substantially increasing the number of public spectroscopic redshifts at $z \approx 2-3$ in COSMOS and the other survey fields. The data release includes Ly$α$ transmission fluctuations measured in $4.7 \times 10^5$ pixels, which were used to create 3D maps of the intergalactic medium (IGM) transmission spanning 1.65 deg$^2$ and $z = 2.2-2.8$ at a resolution of 4 $h^{-1}$ cMpc. These are the largest such maps to date and provide a novel tracer of large-scale structure in legacy fields. We also provide ancillary data, including mock surveys. The LATIS data will enable a variety of community studies of galaxy evolution, environments, and the IGM around cosmic noon.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

Gravitational Waves from Massive Black Hole Mergers in ASTRID: Predictions for LISA

We use the ASTRID cosmological simulation to forecast massive black hole (MBH) mergers detectable by Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) down to $z=0$. ASTRID directly models MBH dynamical friction, allowing a realistic tracking of their trajectory. It also incorporates relatively low-mass MBH seeds down to $5\times10^{4} M_{\odot}$, providing a more complete picture of LISA MBH mergers. We find that LISA MBH mergers initially have high eccentricities, peaking around $e_0 = 0.8$ across all redshifts. Accounting for this boosts the event rate from 5.6 yr$^{-1}$ (if circular orbits are assumed) to 10.5 yr$^{-1}$. This enhancement is largely due to additional inspiral sources that will coalesce after LISA's observation, which constitute $46\%$ of detected events.This underscores the importance of LISA's sensitivity to the early inspiral phase, especially for eccentric binaries that emit gravitational waves across a wider frequency band. Most LISA events in ASTRID arise from $M_{\mathrm{BH}}\sim10^{5-6}\ M_\odot$, low-redshift ($z<2$) and low mass-ratio ($q\sim0.01$-$0.1$) mergers. Accounting for eccentricity broadens the detectable MBH mass range up to $10^{9} M_\odot$ and shifts the peak of detectable mergers to a lower redshift $z_{\rm peak}=0.8$. This implies that the most massive LISA events may also be PTA sources. We predict LISA events to be in various galaxy environments, including many low-mass satellite galaxies. The electromagnetic (EM) counterparts of most LISA sources have active galactic nuclei (AGN) luminosities $L_{\rm bol}>10^{42}$ erg s$^{-1}$, albeit only $1\%$ with $>10^{44}$ erg s$^{-1}$. The brightest AGN are those associated with the rare LISA/PTA events with $M_{\rm BH}>10^{8} M_\odot$.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

LATIS: Galaxy-Environment Relations at Cosmic Noon and the Role of Sample Selection

We investigate the environmental dependence of galaxy properties at $z\sim2.5$ using the Ly$α$ Tomography IMACS Survey (LATIS), which provides high-resolution three-dimensional maps of intergalactic medium (IGM) overdensity via Ly$α$ forest tomography. Our analysis focuses on a UV-selected spectroscopic sample of 2185 galaxies from LATIS and a complementary set of 1157 galaxies from heterogeneous spectroscopic surveys in the COSMOS field. We compare these datasets to forward-modeled mock catalogs constructed from the IllustrisTNG300-1 simulation, incorporating realistic selection functions to match both LATIS and the literature sample. While the mass-complete simulation predicts strong environmental trends--more massive and quiescent galaxies preferentially occupy overdense regions--we find that such trends are significantly weaker or absent in the observed samples. The LATIS galaxies show no measurable correlation between specific star formation rate (sSFR) and IGM overdensity, a result reproduced by LATIS-like mock catalogs, confirming that UV selection systematically excludes passive and dusty galaxies in dense environments. The literature compilation, despite improved high-mass coverage, remains incomplete and affected by similar biases. We also analyze a mass-complete photometric sample from the COSMOS-Web catalog at $z\sim2.5$ and find no detectable sSFR-environment relation, a null result that our simulations indicate can be explained by photometric redshift uncertainties. In particular, we find no evidence for a reversal of the sSFR-density relation at cosmic noon. These results demonstrate that observed correlations can be heavily shaped by selection effects, and caution against inferring physical trends from incomplete spectroscopic samples. Deeper, more representative spectroscopic surveys are needed to robustly characterize environmental effects at this epoch.

astro-ph.GA↗