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Simon Birrer

Publications and source records attributed to Simon Birrer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

COSMIO: A Benchmark for Cross-Survey Modality Imputation

Large-scale astronomical surveys define a heterogeneous, partially observed multi-survey learning setting: each object is observed by only a subset of surveys, while survey observations differ in resolutions, wavelength coverage, noise characteristics, and footprints. This setting gives rise to a natural machine learning problem: given observations of an object in some surveys, how to infer its appearance in other surveys. We formalize this as the problem of cross-survey modality imputation and introduce COSMIO, a multi-survey benchmark of aligned observations obtained by forward-rendered shared astrophysical scenes across LSST, Euclid, and Roman under survey-specific instrument characteristics. The benchmark enables systematic evaluation of imputation across source-target survey combinations and missing-survey patterns. We evaluate a broad range of machine learning methods for imputation, which reveal a clear domain gap: methods developed for existing imputation settings transfer poorly to the survey setting. We identify rare-event imputation as a central challenge. This regime arises in the early stages of new surveys, when rare but scientifically valuable phenomena may be available only from prior surveys. We use strong gravitational lensing, where light from a background galaxy is gravitationally deflected by a foreground galaxy, as a representative rare-event setting. We evaluate model performance on zero-shot imputation of gravitational lenses and on downstream scientific tasks using the imputed lens observations. On our constructed evaluation set of galaxy-galaxy strong lenses, performance degrades under rare-event distribution shift, and this degradation further propagates to the downstream lens-detection task. Code: https://github.com/fw-ic/COSMIO.

astro-ph.IM↗

TDCOSMO 2026: A 3% measurement of the Hubble constant from strong lensing and stellar kinematics

We present cosmological constraints from 11 strongly lensed quasars with measured time delays (hereafter, the TDCOSMO-2026 sample). In addition to expanding the sample, we improve many aspects of our blind analysis with respect to our 2025 analysis. Among other improvements, spatially resolved kinematics are available for nine systems, including six with JWST-NIRSpec, compared to one in 2025; for three lens models, JWST-NIRCam images now replace HST; axisymmetric dynamical modeling is applied directly to the spatially resolved data, instead of an axisymmetric correction factor applied to spherical models; and the line-of-sight convergence is now based on the Euclid Flagship simulations instead of the Millennium Simulation. Our baseline and primary result is based on the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, in combination with a prior on $Ω_{\rm m}$ from the DES-Dovekie supernova sample. In the flat $Λ$ cold dark matter ($Λ$CDM) cosmology, we find $H_0=71.1^{+2.4}_{-2.3}$ km.s$^{-1}$.Mpc$^{-1}$, a 3.3% uncertainty that accounts for the mass-sheet degeneracy. The SLACS and SL2S samples are in excellent agreement with the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, improving the precision on $H_0$ in flat $Λ$CDM to 3.0%. Using the DESI-DR2 baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) likelihood instead of DES-Dovekie yields fully consistent results. We also present constraints in the open $Λ$CDM, $w$CDM, $w_0w_a$CDM, and $w_ϕ$CDM cosmologies; the TDCOSMO $H_0$ inference is robust and consistent across all of them. The combination of the TDCOSMO+SLACS+SL2S likelihood with those from DESI-DR2 and DES-Dovekie disfavors $w=-1$ at the $2.3$-$2.5σ$ level in all three dark energy extensions that we tested. We find, e.g., $w_0=-0.88^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$ in $w_ϕ$CDM and $w_0 = -0.85^{+0.07}_{-0.06}$ in $w_0w_a$CDM, while $w_a = -0.48^{+0.46}_{-0.44}$ remains consistent with zero.

astro-ph.CO↗

TDCOSMO 2026: new insights on the Hubble tension from strong lensing time delays

We discuss the measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) in flat $Λ$ cold dark matter cosmology based on the blind hierarchical analysis of 11 multiply-imaged quasars (hereafter the TDCOSMO-2026 sample) and described in greater detail in a companion paper. In addition to the time delays, we use lens models based on high-resolution imaging from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), analyzed jointly with axisymmetric dynamical models based on JWST-NIRSpec, VLT-MUSE, and Keck-KCWI spectroscopy. Our primary result $H_0=71.1^{+2.4}_{-2.3}$ km.s$^{-1}$.Mpc$^{-1}$ is based on the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, in combination with $Ω_{\rm m}$ constraints from the DES-Dovekie supernova (SN) dataset. Our 3% precision accounts for the mass-sheet degeneracy. Importantly, our measurement is independent of the local distance ladder (LDL). Among individual late-universe probes, only the traditional LDL is more precise. We discuss our result in the context of the Hubble tension, the difference between $H_0$ measured in the late universe and the prediction based on early-universe probes such as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We construct combinations of independent late-universe probes and show that the tension with the Planck CMB prediction is robust to excluding any one of the methods based on Type-Ia Supernovae, Cepheids, or the Tip of the Red Giant Branch. For example, we construct a 'no-SN' $H_0$ measurement, by replacing the DES-Dovekie constraint on $Ω_{\rm m}$ with that from DESI baryon acoustic oscillations, and then combining TDCOSMO-2026 with independent non-SN late-universe probes. This 'no-SN' late-universe probe is in 3.7$σ$ tension with Planck. Even after completely excluding the LDL, the tension with Planck persists at the 2.7$σ$ level.

astro-ph.CO↗

The "Rubin 2036: Opportunities for Discovery" Workshop: A Community Roadmap for the Future of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory After the LSST

The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory will complete its ten-year Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) in the mid-2030s. Its 8.4 m aperture and 9.6 square degree field of view give it an étendue unmatched by any facility planned for that era. The Rubin 2036: Opportunities for Discovery workshop (KIPAC/SLAC, 3-5 August 2026) brought together approximately 100 participants to discuss Rubin's future after LSST. This paper summarizes the workshop's structure and discussions across five working groups. The continued-surveying group explored a machine-learning foundation model pretrained on Rubin imaging for detection, deblending, and classification. The cadence group considered allocating post-LSST observing time and strategies for transiting exoplanets, Type Ia supernova cosmology, time-delay cosmography, and second-scale transients. The filter group explored broadband, medium-band, and narrowband filters for photometric redshifts, high-redshift large-scale structure, AGN reverberation mapping, Galactic archaeology, and emission-line imaging. The multi-messenger group explored follow-up of next-generation gravitational-wave and neutrino sources, including standard sirens, kilonovae, and Galactic supernovae. The technology group organized options by cost and lead time, including fast readout, new filters, a faster shutter, and summit edge computing. Cross-cutting topics included AI/ML, Chilean and Latin-American co-leadership, satellite megaconstellations, and weather and climate trends at Cerro Pachón. White papers and workshop talks are available through https://zenodo.org/communities/rubin2036workshop/ and https://rubin-observatory.github.io/Rubin-Beyond-LSST/pages/Rubin2036proceedings/.

astro-ph.IM↗

Neglecting Dynamical Microlensing Can Bias Accretion Disk Size Measurements at the Population Level

Microlensing of strongly lensed quasars probes unresolved accretion disks, but many inference methods use static magnification maps with fixed relative microlens positions. Using the GPU-accelerated simulator Microcaustics, we generate ten-year multiband light curves for three quadruply lensed quasar configurations. We compare dynamical microlensing with independent microlens motions against coherent bulk motion, and a microlens mass distribution against equal masses, keeping the velocity distribution of individual microlenses and mean mass fixed. We infer population disk sizes using ridge regression on the means and lower and upper scatters of ten variability and event metrics. We measure biases by applying models trained with simplified physics to simulations including both effects. Models trained on coherent motion interpret the additional variability from evolving caustics as smaller disks. For populations of 128 independent realizations, jointly inferred radii are consistently smaller by 6-28%. Microlens dynamics increase caustic-crossing rates pooled across all four macroimages by 5-15% and r-band high-magnification-event (HME) rates by 13-25%, while shortening median HME durations by 4-12%. Omitting the mass distribution produces configuration-dependent disk-size offsets from -12% to +5%. Including the mass distribution decreases caustic-crossing rates by 6-8% and HME rates by 6-12%. It also narrows the spread of ten-year averaged microlensing time-delay differences between macroimages by a median of 9-12% per system, while microlens dynamics have a smaller, image-pair-dependent effect. These results demonstrate the importance of microlens dynamics for population disk-size inference and motivate simulations that include dynamical microlensing and a microlens mass distribution.

astro-ph.GA↗

Strong Lensing Tomography: Double and pseudo multi-source plane strong gravitational lensing to constrain dark energy

Tomographic measurements of gravitational lensing with different lens and source redshift distributions contain crucial information about the universe's relative expansion rate, and hence dark energy. While this technique is well-established in weak lensing, its application to strong lensing has traditionally focused on Double Source Plane Lenses (DSPLs). However, DSPLs are exceedingly rare and fundamentally limited by the Mass-Sheet Degeneracy (MSD), a systematic uncertainty underexplored in previous literature. To overcome these challenges, we introduce Pseudo Double-Source Plane Lenses (PDSPLs): pairs of independent single-source plane lenses with self-similar deflectors. This generalizes the DSPL formalism to the $\sim 10^5$ galaxy-galaxy lenses expected from LSST, Euclid, and Roman. Unlike true DSPLs, PDSPLs are free from the intermediate source mass problem by construction, eliminating the associated secondary MSD and the need for multi-plane ray tracing. We incorporate the deflector MSD into a hierarchical population model to forecast dark energy constraints in Flat $w_0w_a$CDM, showing that MSD severely degrades constraints from small DSPL samples and motivates our PDSPL statistical approach. Assuming unbiased Gaussian photo-z errors of $σ_z/(1+z)=0.03$, the mock LSST Y10 photometric sample yields $σ(w_0)\sim0.45$, constraining the population-mean MSD parameter and deflector power-law slope to $\sim2\%$. A prior $Ω_m\sim\mathcal{N}(0.3,0.05)$, representing combination with external cosmological probes such as CMB, BAO, or SNe Ia, improves this to $σ(w_0)\sim0.29$, comparable to Stage III weak lensing. The statistical advantage over smaller spectroscopic subsets (e.g., 4MOST) assumes unbiased photo-zs. Real-data use requires spectroscopic photo-z calibration and validation of how paired deflectors' mass-profile differences affect Einstein-radius ratios.

astro-ph.CO↗

Semi-Analytic Predictions for Strong-Lensing Perturbers in Cold and Self-Interacting Dark Matter

Strong gravitational lensing is sensitive to the abundance and internal structure of dark matter halos, providing a probe of gravothermal evolution in self-interacting dark matter (SIDM). We combine semi-analytic cold dark matter (CDM) subhalo histories with a model for gravothermal evolution in SIDM to generate CDM and SIDM subhalo populations across SIDM parameter space. We predict their projected enclosed masses and deflection-based projected density slopes and compare them with three perturbers inferred through gravitational imaging in PJ011646, SDSS J0946+1006, and JVAS B1938+666. For SIDM model parameters $σ_0/m_χ=147.1$ cm$^2$/g and $w=120$ km/s, SIDM subhalos reproduce all three perturbers more often than CDM subhalos. For PJ011646, we find ~0.6 cored SIDM subhalos per host matching the perturber, compared with ~0.002 in CDM, while core-collapsed subhalos are too steep. For SDSS J0946+1006, we find ~3 core-collapsed and ~0.004 cored SIDM subhalos per host, compared with none in 900 CDM realizations, although baryons, neglected here, may matter for such massive subhalos. For "detection V" in JVAS B1938+666, we find ~220 core-collapsed and ~20 cored SIDM subhalos per host within the $2σ$ posterior region, compared with ~0.2 in CDM; the CDM candidates require exceptionally early accretion, at median redshift $z\sim13$. Simultaneously reproducing all three perturbers requires $w\gtrsim10^2$ km/s, so that the massive (~$5.6\times10^{10}M_\odot$) progenitors of SDSS J0946+1006 candidates can collapse, and is achieved for $σ_0/m_χ\gtrsim10^2$ cm$^2$/g in the parameter sets studied. Our results show how semi-analytic models can quantify how often subhalos reproduce individual perturbers in different dark matter models, and our modular framework can be readily updated as models of tidal stripping and late-stage gravothermal evolution in SIDM improve. (abridged)

astro-ph.CO↗

Microcaustics: Fast GPU-Accelerated Dynamical Microlensing of Time-Dependent Extended Sources

Gravitational microlensing probes unresolved quasar accretion disc structure and compact objects in lens galaxies and is an important systematic in strong-lens time-delay cosmography. Most analyses use static microlensing map simulations because evolving individual microlenses and caustics is computationally prohibitive. We present Microcaustics, a GPU-accelerated Python package built on PyTorch for dynamical microlensing of time-dependent extended sources in strong gravitational lenses. It combines a local-exact/far-field deflection solver, source-directed lens-plane scouting with temporal reuse, and biquadratic inverse polygon mapping (IPM). GPU batching and fused Triton rasterization accelerate the calculation, while binary caustic labels track source-centred crossings. Across three simulated quadruply lensed quasar systems, our package generates a 10-year, 147-frame multiband light curve in an amortized median of 0.68 s (0.88 s with labels) on a consumer GPU with a median light-curve RMSE of 0.35 mmag, while recovering every reference source-centred caustic crossing. At comparable map accuracy, the batched throughput is 780 times higher than that of a recent CUDA IPM implementation and extrapolates to a speedup of millions relative to classic GPU-D. We demonstrate that our IPM converges as $N_{\rm ray}^{-0.84}$, approaching the idealized $N_{\rm ray}^{-1}$ convergence rate of piecewise-affine IPM and improving upon the $N_{\rm ray}^{-1/2}$ inverse ray-shooting rate. We also introduce a GPU-resident general relativistic and reverberating quasar source model and demonstrate our method with an evolving supernova source. These advances make fully dynamical stellar fields practical for Bayesian and simulation-based inference.

astro-ph.GA↗

A Consistent Implementation of Cluster Strong Lensing in Cosmological Simulation Light Cones

Galaxy cluster strong gravitational lensing plays a central role in precision cosmology, yet robust theoretical predictions have lagged behind an abundance of high-quality strong lensing observations. This shortfall reflects both a mismatch between the geometry of the strong-lensing problem and standard cubic simulation boxes, and the fundamental tension between simulation volume and resolution. Consequently, many current forecasts adopt hybrid approaches that extract individual lenses from simulations and combine them with analytic or observed source populations positioned near caustics. These methods often omit correlated and/or uncorrelated line-of-sight (LoS) structure, or include it in ways that do not preserve correlations across redshift. Here we present a fully simulation-based procedure that generates strong-lensing images directly from particle data, drawing the lens, source, and all intervening resolved objects self-consistently from the simulated large-scale structure. Our approach combines a structure-preserving remapping of the simulation volume into a lensing-appropriate geometry with multi-plane ray tracing, enabling the use of uniform simulation boxes that resolve both cluster-scale primary lenses and high-redshift source galaxies. We demonstrate the method by generating example light cones and images using IllustrisTNG data, then use these results to conservatively quantify the impact of LoS structure on image configurations and critical-curve morphology. We find that uncorrelated LoS structure can shift the relative positions of lensed images by several arcseconds, introduces a $\sim 6\%$ scatter in the area of a cluster's primary critical curve, and changes the total critical area within 100$^{\prime\prime}$ of the cluster potential minimum by $16^{+20\%}_{-14\%}$ at a source plane redshift of $z_s=4$.

astro-ph.CO↗

TDCOSMO XXVI: Uniform lens modeling of eight doubly imaged quasars

We present the first uniform gravitational lens modeling analysis of eight doubly imaged quasars from multi-band observations with the Hubble Space Telescope. Previous time-delay cosmography analyses by the TDCOSMO Collaboration have primarily relied on quadruply imaged quasars, while doubly imaged systems, despite being more abundant, remain underutilized due to their fewer geometric constraints. Using an open-source $\texttt{Lenstronomy}$ framework, we reconstruct the lensing systems with a pipeline tailored for doubles. Comparing our results to the literature, the modeled Einstein radii agree at an average of 1.5$σ$, which is expected given data and modeling heterogeneity, while modeled image separations differ from Gaia DR2 measurements with an r.m.s of only 3.6 mas. We find a strong correlation between Fermat potential precision and the surface brightness of the spatially extended host arcs, establishing that arc surface brightness is the primary driver of mass model precision in doubly imaged systems. To further quantify the information contributed by the lensed arcs, we performed a conjugate point analysis that uses only the quasar image positions to constrain the lens mass profiles. The resulting posteriors are substantially broader than those from full image modeling, and a strong anti-correlation between mass parameter hypervolume and arc magnitude additionally confirms that arc brightness determines the degree to which the lens mass profile can be constrained in doubles. A hierarchical cosmographic analysis incorporating time-delay measurements and stellar kinematics to infer $\text{H}_0$ will be presented in a subsequent publication. The uniform pipeline and arc surface brightness trends established here will significantly accelerate the construction of time-delay cosmography samples from the large lens populations expected from LSST, Roman, and Euclid.

astro-ph.CO↗

Project Dinos II: Redshift evolution of dark and luminous matter density profiles in strong-lensing elliptical galaxies across 0.1 < z < 0.9

We present a new measurement of the dark and luminous matter distribution of massive elliptical galaxies, and their evolution with redshift, by combining strong lensing and dynamical observables. Our sample of 56 lens galaxies covers a redshift range of $0.090 \leq z_{\rm l} \leq 0.884$. By combining new Hubble Space Telescope imaging with previously observed velocity dispersion and line-of-sight measurements, we decompose the luminous matter profile from the dark matter profile and perform a Bayesian hierarchical analysis to constrain the population-level properties of both profiles. We find that the inner slope of the dark matter density profile ("cusp"; $ρ_{\rm DM} \propto r^{-γ_{\rm in}}$) is consistent ($μ_{γ_{\rm in}}=0.97^{+0.03}_{-0.03}$ with $\leq0.07$ intrinsic scatter) with a standard Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW; $γ_{\rm in}=1$) at $z=0.35$. Additionally, we find an appreciable evolution with redshift ($d\log(γ_{\rm in})/dz=-0.44^{+0.14}_{-0.15}$) resulting in a shallower slope (of $> 2 σ$ tension from NFW) at redshifts $z \ge 0.49$. This is in excellent agreement with previous population-level observational studies, as well as with predictions from hydrodynamical simulations such as IllustrisTNG. We also find the stellar mass-to-light ratio at the population level is consistent with that of a Salpeter initial mass function, a small stellar mass-to-light gradient ($κ_{*}(r)\propto r^{-η}$, with $\overlineη \leq 5 \times 10^{-5}$), and isotropic stellar orbits. Our averaged total mass density profile is consistent with a power-law profile within 0.25 to 4 Einstein radii ($\overlineγ = 2.24 \pm 0.14$), with an internal mass-sheet transformation parameter $\overlineλ = 0.96 \pm 0.03$ consistent with no mass sheet. Our findings confirm the validity of the standard mass models used for time-delay cosmography.

astro-ph.GA↗

TDCOSMO XXV: Measuring H0 to 6.5% precision with quasar strong lensing and maximally flexible mass-sheet dynamics

We present a blind time-delay cosmography measurement of the Hubble-Lemaître constant $H_0$ based on the quadruply imaged quasar SDSSJ1433+6007. Our analysis combines deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging, extended time-delay monitoring from the Wendelstein and Maidanak Observatories, and spatially resolved stellar kinematics from the Keck Cosmic Web Imager and Reionization Mapper. We build a robust lens model to reconstruct the mass distribution and high-signal-to-noise kinematic maps to break the mass-sheet degeneracy (MSD), explicitly accounting for the lens galaxy's oblateness, rotation, and anisotropy. Furthermore, we constrain the external convergence ($κ_{\rm ext}$) by characterizing the line-of-sight environment using wide-field photometry from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Survey data release 10. We incorporate these constraints into our joint lensing and dynamical model, running multiple iterations to estimate random and systematic uncertainties. Accounting for maximal flexibility of the mass-sheet transformation, and assuming a flat $Λ$CDM cosmology and an $Ω_{\rm m, 0}$ prior from DESI data release 2, we infer $H_0 = 73.2^{+4.8}_{-4.7}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ (a $6.5\%$ precision), and an internal mass-sheet parameter $λ_{\rm int}=1.12^{+0.05}_{-0.06}$. Notably, $λ_{\rm int}$ is $2σ$ away from unity for this system, highlighting the importance of treating it as a free parameter. Our $H_0$ measurement is consistent with the result from our 2025 milestone paper, and it will be included in our next hierarchical analysis to improve the overall precision. Moving forward, the comprehensive pipeline demonstrated herein establishes a robust framework that can be readily applied to future strongly lensed systems to further refine cosmological constraints.

astro-ph.CO↗

Lens Model Accuracy in the Expected LSST Lensed AGN Sample

Strong gravitational lensing of active galactic nuclei (AGN) enables measurements of cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography (TDC). With data from the upcoming LSST survey, we anticipate using a sample of O(1000) lensed AGN for TDC. To prepare for this dataset and enable this measurement, we construct and analyze a realistic mock sample of 1300 systems drawn from the OM10 (Oguri & Marshall 2010) catalog of simulated lenses with AGN sources at $z<3.1$ in order to test a key aspect of the analysis pipeline, that of the lens modeling. We realize the lenses as power law elliptical mass distributions and simulate 5-year LSST i-band coadd images. From every image, we infer the lens mass model parameters using neural posterior estimation (NPE). Focusing on the key model parameters, $θ_E$ (the Einstein Radius) and $γ_{lens}$ (the projected mass density profile slope), with consistent mass-light ellipticity correlations in test and training data, we recover $θ_E$ with less than 1% bias per lens, 6.5% precision per lens and $γ_{lens}$ with less than 3% bias per lens, 8% precision per lens. We find that lens light subtraction prior to modeling is only useful when applied to data sampled from the training prior. If emulated deconvolution is applied to the data prior to modeling, precision improves across all parameters by a factor of 2. Finally, we combine the inferred lens mass models using Bayesian Hierarchical Inference to recover the global properties of the lens sample with less than 1% bias.

astro-ph.CO↗

Lens Modeling and Cosmological Inference from an Impure Sample of Galaxy-Galaxy Strong Lenses

The start of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time marks a new era for strong lensing science, where the number of strong lenses identified is expected to increase to $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$. In this paper we use a neural network to determine the precision with which lens parameters can be determined, using realistic simulated LSST lensed systems. We find that the Einstein radius can be measured with a mean precision of $3.7\%$ with calibrated uncertainties accurately reflecting the corresponding measurement error. Based on the performance of current strong lens classifiers, the $\sim 100,000$ detectable strong lenses are expected to be accompanied by a similar or larger number of false positives (non-lenses). In readiness for this we introduce a formalism, termed `COSMIC-BEAMS', to infer cosmological parameters while accounting for contamination by false positives. As a proof-of-concept, using simulated LSST measurements of the Einstein radii of a realistic and impure sample of photometric lens systems, i.e. those without spectroscopic confirmation, we find that the cosmological parameters $Ω_m$, $Ω_Λ$, and $w$ can be measured to a precision of $0.1$, $0.03$ and $0.15$ respectively for a $w$CDM cosmology. We demonstrate that unbiased cosmological parameters can be inferred even in strong lens samples contaminated by $50\%$ false positives, and that the photometric dataset of $100\,000$ strong lenses will provide equivalent $w$-precision to $2500-3500$ spectroscopic systems.

astro-ph.CO↗

HST imaging, pipeline modeling, and time-delay predictions of 2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged lensed quasars

The Hubble tension remains a significant challenge in modern cosmology, exhibiting a discrepancy between early-Universe cosmic microwave background measurements and local distance ladder observations. Strong lensing time-delay cosmography provides an independent, geometric probe of $H_0$ that can help resolve this discrepancy. Although hundreds of lensed quasars have been discovered, only a handful have been analyzed due to the resource-intensive follow-up required to measure precise time delays and break degeneracies. We present uniform gravitational lens modeling of 17 recently discovered lensed quasar systems (2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged) to identify and prioritize the most promising candidates for future cosmological study. Using high-resolution near-infrared Hubble Space Telescope WFC3/IR F160W imaging (PID: 17916, PI: T. Treu), we perform uniform pipeline modeling with Lenstronomy. We constrain the mass and light profiles of the deflector galaxies, and assuming a fiducial cosmology, we predict their Fermat potential differences and expected time delays. Our pipeline successfully yields models and time-delay predictions for all 17 systems. Assuming ideal monitoring conditions, we estimate the total contribution from time-delay and Fermat potential modeling errors to the time-delay distance. From this, we classify the systems by estimated time-delay distance uncertainties: six "excellent" ($\leq 3\%$), five "good" ($3\%$-$7\%$), three "suitable" ($7\%$-$12\%$), and three "impractical" ($>12\%$). We recommend prioritizing follow-up campaigns on the 11 "excellent" and "good" systems, which have the potential to deliver high-precision, independent constraints on $H_0$ to help resolve the Hubble tension.

astro-ph.CO↗

TDCOSMO XXIX: JWST/NIRSpec IFU Spatially Resolved Kinematics of Three Time-delay Lenses

Spatially resolved stellar kinematics are critical to the high precision achieved by cosmological probes utilizing time delays of strongly lensed quasars. Combined with high-resolution imaging and lens modeling, dynamical models of the 2D resolved kinematics of the deflector galaxy tightly constrain the mass profile and break the mass-sheet degeneracy, in turn providing tight constraints on the Hubble constant when the time delays are included. We extract stellar kinematics of the deflector galaxies in the quadruply lensed quasar systems HE0435-1223, PG1115+080, and WFI2033-4723 from James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph (JWST-NIRSpec) integral field spectroscopy. The kinematic maps reach average per-bin total (statistical and systematic) uncertainties of 6-11%, with average bin-to-bin correlated errors of only $\sim 1.2\%$. The aperture-integrated velocity dispersions are statistically consistent with the values used in the previous TDCOSMO analysis (all within $0.9σ$), with their average uncertainty reduced from 3.7% to 2.4% owing to improvements in the data reduction and kinematic-extraction methodology. We classify PG1115+080 as a fast rotator, HE0435-1223 and WFI2033-4723 as slow rotators within the probed radii, and we refine the source redshifts from the kinematics of the lensed host galaxies. Kinematic maps will be combined with time delays, lens models, and line-of-sight convergence estimates to measure cosmological parameters in the upcoming TDCOSMO 2026 milestone publication.

astro-ph.CO↗

A General-Purpose VLM Can Teach an Astronomy Foundation Model to Better Recognize Galaxy Morphology

Existing astronomy foundation models provide strong galaxy representations, but adapting them to new survey conditions and survey-specific morphology recognition tasks still requires substantial human supervision. We show that VLM-based VQA systems contain meaningful visual-semantic priors that can serve as weak supervision for downstream morphology classifiers and improve morphology classification under limited human-label budgets. We first introduce a survey-oriented VQA benchmark spanning two representative imaging regimes and evaluate state-of-the-art VLMs on galaxy morphology questions. The results show that these models capture useful morphology signals and informative uncertainty, but are not sufficiently reliable to replace human annotators. Motivated by this finding, we use a general-purpose VLM as a morphology teacher for Zoobot, an astronomy foundation model pretrained on large-scale Galaxy Zoo annotations. Across two survey domains and multiple annotation budgets, the VLM teacher consistently improves Zoobot's downstream morphology classification. These results demonstrate that a general-purpose VLM provides knowledge complementary to an astronomy foundation model and can teach it to better recognize galaxy morphology under limited human supervision. The resulting pipeline is designed for label-efficient adaptation to forthcoming large-scale surveys, including the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. The benchmark and code are publicly available at https://github.com/fw-ic/VLM-morphology-teacher.

cs.CV↗

Investigating the Dark Energy Constraint from Strongly Lensed AGN at LSST-Scale

Strongly lensed Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) with an observable time delay can be used to constrain the expansion history of the Universe through time-delay cosmography (TDC). As the sample of time-delay lenses grows to statistical size, with $\mathcal{O}$(1000) lensed AGN forecast to be observed by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), there is an emerging opportunity to use TDC as an independent probe of dark energy. To take advantage of this statistical sample, we implement a scalable hierarchical inference tool which computes the cosmological likelihood for hundreds of strong lenses simultaneously. With this new technique, we investigate the cosmological constraining power from a simulation of the full LSST sample. We start from individual lenses, and emulate the full joint hierarchical TDC analysis, including image-based modeling, time-delay measurement, velocity dispersion measurement, and external convergence prediction. We fully account for the mass-sheet and mass-anisotropy degeneracies. We assume a sample of 800 lenses, with varying levels of follow-up fidelity based on existing campaigns. With our baseline assumptions, within a flexible $w_0w_a$CDM cosmology, we simultaneously forecast a $\sim$2.5% constraint on H0 and a dark energy figure of merit (DE FOM) of 6.7. We show that by expanding the sample from 50 lenses with IFU kinematics to include 750 lenses with plausible LSST time-delay measurements, we improve the forecasted DE FOM by nearly a factor of 3, demonstrating the value of incorporating this portion of the sample. We also investigate different follow-up campaign strategies, and find significant improvements in the DE FOM with additional stellar kinematics measurements and higher-precision time-delay measurements. We also demonstrate how the redshift configuration of time-delay lenses impacts constraining power in $w_0w_a$CDM.

astro-ph.CO↗