arXiv subjects

Tony Hu

Publications and source records attributed to Tony Hu.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Chronos-2: A foundation model for multivariate time series forecasting

Accurate forecasting with uncertainty quantification is critical in a variety of scientific applications ranging from epidemiology and economics to energy systems and earth sciences. Yet most forecasting models still need to be developed and trained separately for each domain-specific dataset. Time series foundation models (TSFMs) aim to remove this limitation and enable the application of the same model across domains through large-scale pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs treat each time series independently and therefore cannot model interactions among time series and external drivers. Here, we introduce Chronos-2, a foundation model for zero-shot forecasting that models the interactions between multivariate time series and heterogeneous covariates, which commonly arise in scientific applications. The model infers relationships among time series directly from historical context and generates probabilistic forecasts without task-specific treatment. Across various benchmarks, Chronos-2 achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on average by improving skill scores by 5.2 percentage points relative to the strongest baselines and increasing win rates by 10 percentage points. Chronos-2 is also computationally efficient, generating forecasts for 100 time series in under one second on a single mid-range GPU, 50x and 1000x faster end-to-end than the best task-specific point and probabilistic forecasters, respectively. In addition, we demonstrate its effectiveness in diverse scientific settings -- including infectious-disease forecasting, macroeconomic modeling, carbon-flux prediction, and runoff simulation -- where the model matches or surpasses specialized methods developed for each domain. These results show that a single pretrained model can capture structure shared across temporal systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

AutoGluon-Multimodal (AutoMM): Supercharging Multimodal AutoML with Foundation Models

AutoGluon-Multimodal (AutoMM) is introduced as an open-source AutoML library designed specifically for multimodal learning. Distinguished by its exceptional ease of use, AutoMM enables fine-tuning of foundation models with just three lines of code. Supporting various modalities including image, text, and tabular data, both independently and in combination, the library offers a comprehensive suite of functionalities spanning classification, regression, object detection, semantic matching, and image segmentation. Experiments across diverse datasets and tasks showcases AutoMM's superior performance in basic classification and regression tasks compared to existing AutoML tools, while also demonstrating competitive results in advanced tasks, aligning with specialized toolboxes designed for such purposes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A frequency-independent solver for systems of first order linear ordinary differential equations

When a system of first order linear ordinary differential equations has eigenvalues of large magnitude, its solutions exhibit complicated behaviour, such as high-frequency oscillations, rapid growth or rapid decay. The cost of representing such solutions using standard techniques typically grows with the magnitudes of the eigenvalues. As a consequence, the running times of standard solvers for ordinary differential equations also grow with the size of these eigenvalues. The solutions of scalar equations with slowly-varying coefficients, however, can be efficiently represented via slowly-varying phase functions, regardless of the magnitudes of the eigenvalues of the corresponding coefficient matrix. Here, we couple an existing solver for scalar equations which exploits this observation with a well-known technique for transforming a system of linear ordinary differential equations into scalar form. The result is a method for solving a large class of systems of linear ordinary differential equations in time independent of the magnitudes of the eigenvalues of their coefficient matrices. We discuss the results of numerical experiments demonstrating the properties of our algorithm.

math.NA↗

arXiv2023

AutoGluon-TimeSeries: AutoML for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

cs.LG↗