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Tuomas Sandholm

Publications and source records attributed to Tuomas Sandholm.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

On the Convergence of Alternating Regret Matching Algorithms

Alternating updates, that is, where each player is updated in turn, tend to typically perform better in regret matching algorithms than simultaneous updates. Alternation within the regret matching family has long been a central ingredient of practical solvers for zero-sum games. Yet our theoretical understanding is lagging behind. In this paper, we address this gap by developing a systematic way of analyzing such algorithms. Our framework centers on an alternating analog of the RVU property that we introduce, which we use to obtain the optimal $T^{-1}$ average-iterate convergence within this family. In particular, we establish this for two simple variants of predictive regret matching$^+$: i) increasing-regret predictive regret matching$^+$ and ii) half-prediction regret matching$^+$. Interestingly, we find that half prediction is the unique prediction multiplier that satisfies our alternating RVU property, giving it a strong theoretical justification. Going beyond average-iterate convergence, we refine our framework to obtain $T^{-1/2}$ best-iterate convergence and further establish convergence of their strategy profiles to a single Nash equilibrium, without assuming equilibrium uniqueness. We go on to establish separations between alternating and simultaneous updates, including a game in which half-prediction regret matching$^+$ converges under alternating updates but fails to converge in terms of the last iterate under simultaneous updates. This provides theoretical support for the empirical observation that alternation can stabilize learning dynamics. Finally, experiments on 15 game benchmarks demonstrate that the strong theoretical properties of the half-prediction mechanism translate to strong practical performance, being on par with state-of-the-art solvers.

cs.GT↗

Follow the Regularized Leader Does Not Converge in Constrained Optimization

Follow the regularized leader (FTRL) is a foundational algorithm in online learning whose regret properties have been extensively studied for decades. However, in stark contrast to mirror descent---and gradient descent in particular---the convergence of FTRL to first-order stationary points in constrained nonconvex optimization was not well understood. In this paper, we show that continuous-time FTRL can fail to converge even asymptotically in infinitely smooth constrained optimization problems: its Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) gap can remain bounded away from zero indefinitely. This is especially surprising in light of the fact that continuous-time FTRL guarantees a monotonic improvement of the objective value. As a result, we establish that non-convergent behavior of no-regret dynamics---which besets general variational inequality problems---can occur even in potential systems. From a technical standpoint, our construction relies on an infinitely differentiable function where the gradient flow dynamics exhibit decelerating oscillations without ever converging pointwise, which we in turn embed into higher-dimensional FTRL dynamics that sustain a perpetually large KKT gap. We complement our negative result by showing that FTRL with Euclidean regularization does converge when the objective function is analytic. This shows that the analytic property plays a more fundamental role for FTRL than for gradient flow: it governs not only pointwise convergence, but convergence to first-order stationarity itself.

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Fixed Sets and the Hardness of Computing Correlated Equilibria

We show that computing an approximate correlated equilibrium of a polytope game is PPAD-complete, and thus polynomial-time equivalent to finding a Nash equilibrium. This challenges the conventional view in game theory that correlated equilibria are more tractable objects than Nash equilibria. From a conceptual standpoint, we connect correlated equilibria to a natural generalization of fixed points, which we call fixed sets. A fixed set of a continuous function $f$ is a nonempty finite set $S$ such that $S \subseteq \operatorname{conv} f(S)$. Our main technical contribution is to prove that computing a fixed set is PPAD-hard even at inverse polynomial precision.

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Fundamental Impossibility Results in AI Safety: Trading Off between Desiderata

Is there a fundamental tradeoff between desiderata for safe AI systems, such as harmlessness and helpfulness? We answer by formalizing the interaction between AI systems and users as a game with three players: a defender and an attacker that are computationally or informationally bounded, and an AI that provides public advice and is less constrained. Our main result shows that there is a fundamental tradeoff in providing advice that helps the defender while advice remains public. We also consider whether the information that the AI shares can be manipulated to benefit only the defender and conclude with a discussion of how we can use these results in designing safer AI systems.

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What You Earn from What You Learn: Characterization and Complexity of the Value of Information

We examine the value of information in extensive-form decision problems: the largest multiplicative gain that a decision maker can obtain from an information refinement, taken over all payoff environments. This measures the structural importance of information disentangled from any particular payoff specification, and generalizes the notion of value of recall recently introduced by Berker et al. (AAAI'25). We establish a unifying characterization of the value of information under any information refinement, uncovering an intriguing connection to the maximum fractional chromatic number over a certain family of conflict graphs. We then employ our characterization to elucidate the complexity of two central information refinements. First, for the value of perfect information in perfect-recall decision problems, we find that the relevant conflict graphs are cographs, so the fractional chromatic number collapses to the clique number. Even though the clique number is tractable for a given cograph, we show that the additional layer of optimization (over the family of graphs) makes computing the value of perfect information NP-complete. On the positive side, we prove fixed-parameter tractability in terms of the degree of imperfect information. Second, for the value of recall in imperfect-recall decision problems (with no absentmindedness), we first show that the value of recall can realize the fractional chromatic number of any graph. Interestingly, this implies that, unlike the value of perfect information, the value of recall can take fractional values. Building on this reduction, we then establish S2P-completeness. This addresses questions left open by Berker et al. (AAAI'25)---both on the characterization and the complexity of the value of recall---and shows that computing the value of recall is strictly harder than the value of perfect information.

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Efficient Learning of Survival Analysis Models Under Outcome-Dependent Truncation and Censoring

Modern machine learning models are typically trained on data assumed to be representative of the predictive tasks the model will face in the future, but practical datasets violate this assumption. We focus on outcome-dependent truncation in which an observation appears in the training data depending on its label. Our work connects two largely distinct literatures: efficient learning under truncation and survival analysis. Existing methods for truncated survival analysis do not characterize the optimization landscape and instead rely on iterative procedures such as expectation maximization. We address this gap and prove that Cox regression can be efficiently learned under truncated and right-censored data using first-order optimization when the baseline hazard is known (despite nonconvexity). In contrast, when the baseline hazard is learned jointly, we construct identifiable and correctly specified models whose negative log-likelihood contains strict suboptimal local minima. On experiments with four survival datasets, we show that accounting for truncation reduces the prediction bias induced by naive Cox regression and extends to neural networks. We also show orders of magnitude speedups compared to standard expectation maximization.

cs.LG↗

Preference Elicitation for Policy Optimization and Application to Aligning Heart Transplantation with Human Values

Preference elicitation is essential for aligning AI systems with human values. Prior approaches (e.g., for organ allocation) often ask stakeholders to compare the decisions of an algorithm (e.g., patient A vs. patient B). Such a decision-level approach conflates the means with the ends. Instead, we elicit preferences directly over allocation outcomes to learn a utility function for policy optimization. We construct a novel preference elicitation algorithm for linear utilities that outperforms prior techniques in practice. Our algorithm has two phases. The first phase learns cutting planes through pairwise comparisons to rapidly shrink the space of possible attribute weights and warm-starts the second phase by eliminating dominated regions. The second phase then provably converges to the user's utility function. We apply our technique to heart transplant allocation, where a policy must balance competing objectives such as post-transplant outcomes, waitlist mortality, geographic ease, and equity. Using our algorithm, we conduct a user study to learn and aggregate a human-value-aligned utility function. We evaluate the linear representation against LLM-based methods supplied with users' natural language explanations, finding that none of these methods is more accurate than the learned linear utilities. We use the resulting utility function to optimize heart transplant policies that are significantly better aligned with human values. Compared to the hindsight optimum, the status quo policy achieves a competitive ratio of just 0.66, while our method is near-optimal with a competitive ratio of 0.95.

cs.AI↗

A Polynomial-Time Algorithm for Variational Inequalities under the Minty Condition

Solving (Stampacchia) variational inequalities (SVIs) is a foundational problem at the heart of optimization. However, this expressivity comes at the cost of computational hardness. As a result, most research has focused on carving out specific subclasses that elude those intractability barriers. A classical property that goes back to the 1960s is the Minty condition, which postulates that the Minty VI (MVI) problem admits a solution. In this paper, we establish the first polynomial-time algorithm -- with complexity growing polynomially in the dimension $d$ and $\log(1/ε)$ -- for solving $ε$-SVIs for Lipschitz continuous mappings under the Minty condition. Prior approaches either incurred an exponentially worse dependence on $1/ε$ (and other natural parameters of the problem) or made more restrictive assumptions, such as monotonicity. To do so, we introduce a new variant of the ellipsoid algorithm whereby separating hyperplanes are obtained after taking a descent step from the center of the ellipsoid. It succeeds even though the set of SVIs can be nonconvex and not fully dimensional. Moreover, when our algorithm is applied to an instance with no MVI solution and fails to identify an SVI solution, it produces a succinct certificate of MVI infeasibility. We also show that deciding whether the Minty condition holds is $\mathsf{coNP}$-complete, thereby establishing that the disjunction of those two problems is polynomial-time solvable even though each problem is individually intractable. We provide several extensions and new applications of our main results. Most notably, we obtain the first polynomial-time algorithms for computing Nash equilibria in multi-player harmonic games. Finally, in two-player general-sum concave games, we give the first polynomial-time algorithm that outputs either a Nash equilibrium or a strict coarse correlated equilibrium.

math.OC↗

Normal-Form Correlation in Markov Games

There has been a surge of recent work on correlated equilibrium concepts in Markov games. However, existing results focus on concepts weaker than normal-form correlated equilibria (NFCEs), leaving open the more challenging question of computing such equilibria, which goes back to the seminal work of Papadimitriou and Roughgarden (JACM'08). Here, we establish the first efficient algorithm for NFCEs in finite-horizon Markov games with a fixed number of players $n$. In particular, with $S$ states, horizon $H$, and at most $A$ actions per player, it computes an $ε$-NFCE in time $S(AH/ε)^{O(n)}$. This is the first algorithm polynomial in $1/ε$ and the description of the game for NFCEs in an interesting class of problems beyond the normal-form setting. Moreover, under the usual assumption that recommendations are independent across states, we show PPAD-completeness---that is, computational equivalence to Nash equilibria---either in many-player games or when the precision is exponentially small. The key idea behind our approach is to run backward induction on a sequence of auxiliary stage games, but with the twist that in each step we compute a constant-expectation correlated equilibrium. This is a natural refinement of correlated equilibrium in which the conditional expected payoff from obeying is independent of the recommendation. In fact, our reduction goes both ways, establishing an equivalence between constant-expectation CEs and NFCEs in Markov games. For a fixed number of players, we observe that a constant-expectation CE can be computed approximately by combining linear programming with suitable discretization. In contrast, it is PPAD-hard in i) polymatrix (many-player) games at constant precision, and ii) two-player games at exponentially small precision. The latter result follows from an unexpected connection to rank-2 two-player games.

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Regularized policy gradient with learned mixtures of Gaussians for games with continuous actions

Most successes of superhuman game-playing algorithms are in games with discrete actions, yet in auctions, robotics, sports, or trading, actions are nearly continuous. Prior techniques either rely on expert-designed discretizations or are sample inefficient. We present a scalable policy-gradient algorithm for large sequential games with continuous or mixed discrete and continuous actions. It combines magnetic mirror descent with a mixture of Gaussians reparametrization, trained via self-play. We show that it approximates equilibrium in games where gradient descent fails. In sequential games, it outperforms neural fictitious self-play and matches or outperforms the final strategies of policy space response oracles with 3.5--5.5$\times$ fewer samples. In heads-up no-limit Texas hold'em, it performs on par with Slumbot.

cs.MA↗

Test-time Reinforcement Learning in Imperfect Information Games

Test-time reasoning has significantly improved performance in domains ranging from games to language models. However, test-time policy changes with formal guarantees on the performance of the resulting strategy remain a challenge in two-player zero-sum imperfect-information games. Existing solutions are limited to tabular methods or single gradient step updates. In this work, we investigate policy-gradient algorithms as a method for scalable test-time reasoning. We extend the concept of gadget game, tabular technique for test-time search, to the reinforcement learning setting. Unlike prior approaches, we represent the gadget game implicitly by modified sampling and neural policy rather then explicitly by constructing it, thereby removing constraints on subgame size. Furthermore, we formally prove that, unlike prior tabular algorithms, regularized policy-gradient algorithms limit possible strategy degradation caused by test-time reasoning, even without the gadget games. Our evaluation across small- and large-scale games confirms that additional test-time training often substantially improves performance relative to the blueprint strategy.

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Watermarked Game Solving via Perturbed Regret Minimization

Many real-world interactions among self-interested parties can be modeled by game theory, and the rapid advancements in AI have raised concerns about the possible misuse---accidental or deliberate---of superhuman or human-level game-playing agents by bad actors. While AI watermarking has mainly been applied to LLM-generated texts, a recent line of work proposes developing watermarking techniques for agents in game-theoretic settings. However, existing watermarking techniques for game-theoretic agents are not readily applicable due to their limited scope or capabilities---they are tailored to perfect-information games and are thus inapplicable to richer game types. We propose a new approach to watermarking game-playing agents, which a) can be applied to imperfect-information settings; b) is directly integrated into the learning process itself; and c) incurs only a bounded cost in exploitability. For this purpose, we introduce perturbed regret minimization, which adds perturbations to the utilities prior to observation so as to encourage the learning algorithm to embed the watermark. Our experiments show that the watermark incurs only a small exploitability cost and can be detected within just a couple of hours of gameplay at human speed.

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Distributed Constraint Optimization via Online Learning and Iterative Pricing with Application to Large-Scale Satellite Scheduling

Distributed constraint optimization problems (DCOPs) provide a popular framework for distributed decision making under limited communication, but many real-world instances are too large to solve monolithically. We address this challenge from two complementary directions. We revisit the connection between DCOPs and potential games, and adapt modern online learning algorithms for equilibrium finding to DCOPs. We show that these algorithms are competitive with representative incomplete DCOP algorithms. We then turn to decomposition frameworks for large-scale DCOPs, motivated by large-scale decentralized satellite scheduling. We propose a new framework that separates a DCOP into two interacting subproblems: a high-level meta-DCOP for task allocation, and independent local optimization problems for scheduling. To couple the two levels, we develop a novel iterative pricing method that updates the meta-level utilities using feedback from the local optimizers. Combining our online learning methods with our iterative pricing framework, we obtain near-optimal performance on real-world decentralized satellite scheduling problem instances, fulfilling over 99% of observation requests compared with 87% for state-of-the-art baselines.

cs.AI↗

The Computational Complexity of Team Zero-Sum Games

A celebrated consequence of the minimax theorem is that two-player zero-sum games admit a tractable equilibrium characterization. In many central applications, however, each side comprises multiple independent agents who share a common objective but cannot perfectly coordinate their actions. Such settings can be modeled as \emph{team zero-sum games}, a natural generalization of both two-player zero-sum games and potential games -- the two most well-studied classes of games in algorithmic game theory. In this paper, we settle the complexity of team zero-sum games by establishing that computing Nash equilibria is \PPAD-complete. As a result, despite the global adversarial structure, team zero-sum games are as hard as general-sum games. Our hardness result holds even when i) the precision is inverse polynomial, thereby ruling out a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (unless $¶= \PPAD$); ii) each team consists of only two players; and iii) the underlying class of games is polymatrix. As a byproduct, we resolve the complexity of group-wise zero-sum polymatrix games, a class introduced and examined in the seminal work of Cai and Daskalakis (SODA '11), and more recently highlighted by Hollender, Maystre, and Nagarajan (ICLR '25). Moreover, we show that computing a first-order stationary point in min-max optimization is \PPAD-complete even for quadratic (multilinear) objectives. From a technical standpoint, we develop a series of team zero-sum game gadgets that allow us to simulate the breakthrough reduction of Bernasconi and Castiglioni (STOC '26). Moreover, to obtain hardness results for quadratic objectives, we make use of a general technique based on linear local approximation, which is of independent interest.

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Aligning Data-Driven Predictors with Allocation: A Decision-Focused Approach to Survival Analysis

Machine learning predictors have become essential tools for guiding automated decision making. However, a major misalignment persists: predictive models are typically optimized in terms of standard statistical metrics in isolation from the algorithmic tasks they inform. We highlight this incongruity in the high-stakes domain of organ allocation by demonstrating that any algorithm relying on (even highly accurate) survival predictors optimized for standard metrics -- such as the Concordance index (C-index) -- can yield arbitrarily poor outcomes when used for allocation, failing to guarantee utility better than a uniform random selection. To bridge the gap between survival analysis and policy optimization, we introduce a decision-focused learning approach based on optimizing normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG), a mainstay metric in information retrieval. We establish the utility of NDCG in survival analysis by proving that it translates to guarantees on the performance of allocation. Empirically, we propose a bootstrapping approach to optimize the NDCG of existing survival models. Unlike prior work, we also address the challenge of right censorship when evaluating ranking. On historical heart transplant data from the US, our method dramatically boosts the NDCG of baseline models by 50-100%, which translates to tens of thousands of additional life years gained annually when deployed for transplant allocation. We anticipate that our framework will find broader applications in decision making with predictions.

cs.LG↗

Position: Machine Learning for Heart Transplant Allocation Policy Optimization Should Account for Incentives

The allocation of scarce donor organs constitutes one of the most consequential algorithmic challenges in healthcare. While the field is rapidly transitioning from rigid, rule-based systems to machine learning and data-driven optimization, we argue that current approaches often overlook a fundamental barrier: incentives. In this position paper, we highlight that organ allocation is not merely an optimization problem, but rather a complex game involving organ procurement organizations, transplant centers, clinicians, patients, and regulators. Focusing on US adult heart transplant allocation, we identify critical incentive misalignments across the decision-making pipeline, and present data showing that they are having adverse consequences today. Our main position is that the next generation of allocation policies should be incentive aware. We outline a research agenda for the machine learning community, calling for the integration of mechanism design, strategic classification, causal inference, and social choice to ensure robustness, efficiency, fairness, and trust in the face of strategic behavior from the various constituent groups.

cs.LG↗

On the Complexity of Correlated Equilibria Beyond Normal-Form Games

Correlated equilibria are a fundamental solution concept in game theory. However, despite decades of research, the complexity beyond games of polynomial type -- such as extensive-form games, congestion or routing games, and more broadly concave games -- has remained a major open problem, first highlighted by Papadimitriou and Roughgarden (JACM '08). In this paper, we resolve several long-standing questions concerning the complexity of correlated equilibria and swap regret minimization. First, we show that computing a correlated equilibrium in concave quadratic games is as hard as computing the fixed point of a contraction mapping (Contr), providing the first strong evidence of intractability. Moreover, we establish an unconditional, information-theoretic lower bound ruling out the existence of a strongly sublinear swap regret minimizer: any online learning algorithm requires exponentially many iterations in the dimension $d$ to guarantee at most $1/\text{poly}(d)$ (average) swap regret. To circumvent these hardness results, we examine the complexity of $Φ$-equilibria -- tractable relaxations of correlated equilibria. We obtain a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS) for computing poly-dimensional $Φ$-equilibria in general concave games. We complement this by showing that Contr-hardness persists even under poly-dimensional swap deviations in the regime where the precision $ε$ is exponentially small. Finally, we show that Contr-hardness can be bypassed in the canonical setting of concave \emph{quadratic games}, for which we provide a $\text{poly}(d, \log(1/ε))$-time algorithm for computing poly-dimensional $Φ$-equilibria. As a byproduct, we obtain an algorithm for computing fixed points of a mapping that is contracting with respect to an unknown Mahalanobis norm, which could be of independent interest.

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Domain-Independent Game Abstraction using Word Embedding Techniques

Many games of interest in the real world are often intractably large, thereby necessitating the use of game abstraction to shrink them in size, typically by many magnitudes. Over the last two decades, there have been significant advances in game abstraction; however, the domain-specific nature (usually poker) of much of the prior work prevents those techniques from being easily generalized to other settings without extensively analyzing the game at hand. In this paper, we propose a domain-independent approach to game abstraction, which applies word embedding techniques from the field of natural language processing. Treating each action as a word and gameplay data as a corpus, word vectors can be trained to represent each action as a real-valued vector, which can then be clustered to facilitate game abstraction. We also explore the use of foundational embedding models and show that action embeddings obtained this way can capture a surprising amount of information about the underlying game. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed game abstraction technique is effective, although it does not outperform specialized algorithms tailored to specific games.

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