Valentina Zangirolami | Search arXiv

arXiv2026

Can Tabular Foundation Models Amortize Statistical Inference?

For decades, statistical inference has largely been developed one problem at a time. Given a scientific target, such as a treatment effect or a regression function, statisticians design a problem-specific estimator together with a procedure for quantifying its uncertainty. This paper proposes a different paradigm. We focus on a classical problem in statistical inference, confidence interval construction, and develop TabCon, an amortized inference system built on a tabular foundation model that produces confidence intervals for new datasets through a simple forward pass. The key methodological ingredients of TabCon are a sparse mixture-of-experts architecture and reinforcement-learning-based post-training that calibrate the resulting confidence intervals to a desired coverage level. Across a wide range of benchmark datasets, TabCon attains near-nominal coverage while producing short confidence intervals. At inference time, it also offers considerably greater computational efficiency, running 50 times faster than the classical bootstrap procedure, even when the latter uses only 50 bootstrap samples.

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arXiv2024

Dealing with uncertainty: balancing exploration and exploitation in deep recurrent reinforcement learning

Incomplete knowledge of the environment leads an agent to make decisions under uncertainty. One of the major dilemmas in Reinforcement Learning (RL) where an autonomous agent has to balance two contrasting needs in making its decisions is: exploiting the current knowledge of the environment to maximize the cumulative reward as well as exploring actions that allow improving the knowledge of the environment, hopefully leading to higher reward values (exploration-exploitation trade-off). Concurrently, another relevant issue regards the full observability of the states, which may not be assumed in all applications. For instance, when 2D images are considered as input in an RL approach used for finding the best actions within a 3D simulation environment. In this work, we address these issues by deploying and testing several techniques to balance exploration and exploitation trade-off on partially observable systems for predicting steering wheels in autonomous driving scenarios. More precisely, the final aim is to investigate the effects of using both adaptive and deterministic exploration strategies coupled with a Deep Recurrent Q-Network. Additionally, we adapted and evaluated the impact of a modified quadratic loss function to improve the learning phase of the underlying Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network. We show that adaptive methods better approximate the trade-off between exploration and exploitation and, in general, Softmax and Max-Boltzmann strategies outperform epsilon-greedy techniques.

stat.ML↗