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Wojciech Samek

Publications and source records attributed to Wojciech Samek.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

ICON Decomposition: Auditing Deep Neural Networks with Multivariate Variance-based Concept-level Explanations

Deep neural networks often exploit spurious associations, a failure known as shortcut learning. Auditing for shortcuts requires testing many candidate concepts, such as acquisition settings or demographics. Current concept-based explainability methods test one concept at a time, asking whether it is decodable from a layer. These methods flag concepts that are merely correlated with the outcome or with each other, and their scores are not comparable across layers or concept types. We introduce ICON decomposition, which quantifies how much of a layer's variance each concept explains given all other concepts and the outcome, and how much none of them explains, yielding layer-comparable, calibrated scores that suppress false positives. On simulated data, ICON recovers concept importance more accurately than seven existing methods. On skin-cancer models with inserted artifacts, it detects induced shortcuts where baselines report false positives. On two brain-imaging models, ICON's sparse explanations are validated by retraining and out-of-distribution tests.

cs.LG

Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End AI Weather Forecasting: Disentangling Observation and Model Contributions

End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of its cost. These systems are deterministic and issue no uncertainty. Here we render the Aardvark Weather model probabilistic by attaching one stochastic mechanism to each component: learned, input-dependent noise at the observation encoder, capturing aleatoric uncertainty inherited from the observing system, and Monte Carlo dropout in the processor, capturing epistemic uncertainty in the learned dynamics. The resulting nested ensemble attributes forecast spread to the two sources through a law-of-total-variance decomposition, cross-checked by withholding observation streams. Probabilistic finetuning significantly improves the mean forecast, by 4.2% on average across variables and lead times. The ensemble is calibrated against ERA5 through the medium range (spread-skill ratio 0.98), keeps station RMSE within 2.4% of the deterministic model while beating it in CRPS at every lead time, and trails the operational ECMWF ensemble. The encoder branch behaves as observation-driven uncertainty. Component-attributed uncertainty makes end-to-end forecasts more transparent, a step toward observation-driven digital twins of the atmosphere.

physics.ao-ph