Net Load Forecasting with Renewable Capacity Features: A Comparison of Direct and Indirect Neural Network Methods
Renewable energy adoption has increased significantly in recent years. However, the growing penetration of renewable generation that depends on the weather introduces additional variability, making accurate net load forecasting increasingly challenging. In this study, long short-term memory (LSTM) and fully connected neural network (FCNN) models are employed to forecast net load one hour ahead using direct and indirect approaches. In the direct approach, net load is predicted directly, whereas in the indirect approach, total load, wind generation, and solar generation are predicted separately and then used to derive net load. Installed renewable generation capacity is also incorporated as an input feature to capture changes in renewable generation capability over time. A 24-hour input window and a chronological 90%/5%/5% training, validation, and test split are employed, with preprocessing fitted exclusively on the training data. On 1,754 common test timestamps, the direct FCNN slightly outperforms the indirect FCNN, whereas the indirect LSTM achieves the best overall performance, with a MAPE of 2.46%, an RMSPE of 3.59%, and an R2 of 98.7%. These results demonstrate that component-wise forecasting can improve LSTM-based net load prediction when the characteristics of renewable generation and installed capacity information are represented appropriately.