Xinming Gao | Search arXiv

arXiv2026

PAWS: Policy-driven Agentic World Simulation

Policy interventions propagate through public communication, institutional decisions, and stakeholder responses, yet datasets for financial multi-agent simulation rarely connect these processes to temporally aligned historical evidence. We introduce PAWS, a Policy-driven Agentic World Simulation dataset covering 36 verified U.S. financial and economic policy episodes, 12,727 policy-linked news records, and 65,291 source-grounded stakeholder actions. Each action is linked to its supporting news and represented by a multi-layer event frame capturing its interaction mode, financial-action family and subtype, semantic attributes, and conditional mappings to external taxonomies. Entities are resolved to normalized organizations, and actions are aligned with daily market-return context to support policy-agent simulation replay. On 2,522 stratified action samples, independent AI and human reviewers achieved 89.4% initial agreement on interaction mode, with disagreements subsequently adjudicated. Case studies of the 2008 short-selling ban and 2001 decimalization recover documented policy timelines and associated market patterns across both dense and sparse news settings. A replay study further shows that high accuracy can mask failure to detect rare stakeholder actions, identifying action timing and calibration as central challenges. PAWS provides an auditable substrate for evaluating agent influence, policy-response cascades, and action-outcome alignment in historically grounded financial simulations.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Quantile Q-Learning: Revisiting Offline Extreme Q-Learning with Quantile Regression

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) enables policy learning from fixed datasets without further environment interaction, making it particularly valuable in high-risk or costly domains. Extreme $Q$-Learning (XQL) is a recent offline RL method that models Bellman errors using the Extreme Value Theorem, yielding strong empirical performance. However, XQL and its stabilized variant MXQL suffer from notable limitations: both require extensive hyperparameter tuning specific to each dataset and domain, and also exhibit instability during training. To address these issues, we proposed a principled method to estimate the temperature coefficient $β$ via quantile regression under mild assumptions. To further improve training stability, we introduce a value regularization technique with mild generalization, inspired by recent advances in constrained value learning. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves competitive or superior performance across a range of benchmark tasks, including D4RL and NeoRL2, while maintaining stable training dynamics and using a consistent set of hyperparameters across all datasets and domains.

cs.LG↗