arXiv subjects

Xinran Li

Publications and source records attributed to Xinran Li.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Randomization Inference with Sample Attrition

Randomization inference is a widely-used and appealing approach for analyzing treatment effects in randomized experiments, as it is finite-sample valid and does not require any distributional assumptions. However, naive application of randomization inference may suffer from severe size distortion in the presence of sample attrition, where outcome data are missing for some units. In this paper, we propose new, computationally efficient methods for randomization inference that remain valid under a broad class of potentially informative missingness mechanisms, allowing a unit's missingness to depend on its (unobserved) potential outcomes. Specifically, we construct valid p-values for testing both sharp and bounded null hypotheses on treatment effects via a worst-case consideration of the classical Fisher randomization test. Leveraging distribution-free test statistics, these worst-case p-values admit closed-form solutions. Importantly, by incorporating both potential outcomes and potential missingness indicators into the test statistic, our methods can exploit structural assumptions such as monotone missingness, which are commonly adopted in applications due to their plausibility and ability to substantially improve inferential power. Moreover, our approach connects to a range of partial identification bounds in the literature, which in some sense suggests the sharpness of our tests. We illustrate the proposed methods through both simulation studies and an empirical application. An R package implementing the proposed methods is publicly available.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

REVOLVE: An Automated Closed-Loop Framework for Evolving Robot Manipulation with Minimal Human Intervention

Recent advances in data-driven robot manipulation policies have substantially improved task execution and generalization. However, real-world deployment still relies heavily on humans for failure assessment, correction, and environment reset, while models often fail to continually learn from failures and corrective experience. We present REVOLVE (Robot Evolving via Orchestrated Loops, Verification, and Experience), an automated closed-loop framework for evolving robot manipulation with minimal human intervention. Built on a unified software platform, REVOLVE integrates data collection, policy training and deployment, failure recovery, and continual learning into a single closed-loop workflow. Its Automated Reset and Correction (ARC) architecture automatically resets the environment and intervenes to correct policy failures. Dual-Loop Evolution (DLE) continually improves the manipulation policy and agent by feeding real-world interaction and failure--correction data back into policy learning and using an external mismatch memory to refine agent judgments. Experiments across four real-world manipulation tasks show that, after five iterations, REVOLVE improves average policy success rate by 18.5% and agent judgment accuracy by 8.5%, while reducing human effort in data collection and deployment testing by 94.4% and 95.1%, respectively. These results demonstrate that REVOLVE transforms real-world deployment into a closed-loop learning process that continually accumulates and uses execution experience, enabling continual evolution of both the policy and supervisory model with substantially less human intervention.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

Particle Physics Driven by Quantum Technology - Quantum Simulations and Quantum Sensing

We review recent advances in particle physics enabled and motivated by the rapid progress of quantum technologies. The continued development of quantum computing toward large-scale, fault-tolerant systems has the potential to address dynamical problems that remain extremely challenging for classical computational approaches, opening new avenues for studying nonperturbative dynamical processes. Tabletop detectors and quantum-enhanced technologies have reached unprecedented sensitivities, enabling novel searches for ultralight particles, gravitational waves, and other physics beyond the Standard Model in parameter regimes previously inaccessible to conventional instrumentation. Taken together, these developments highlight a rapidly evolving landscape in which quantum technologies are beginning to reshape fundamental physics. We aim to synthesize recent progress and illuminate the opportunities they present for advancing particle physics in the coming years.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2026

Hidden APIs in Language Models: Discovering Reusable Causal Interfaces from Forked Futures

Identical language-model answers can arise from hidden states that support different future computations, so current-answer probes do not establish a reusable internal interface. We introduce forked futures: future operations are sampled only after a prefix state has formed, and states are compared through the response distributions induced by those operations. This yields an empirical causal quotient over hidden states without requiring researcher-specified latent labels. Shared, Local, Mixture, and Distributed interfaces then compete under prequential causal description length subject to future-signature fidelity and matched capacity constraints. In the two detailed model evaluations, Shared has the lowest held-out description length, with gains of 0.216 nats on Qwen2.5-1.5B and 0.294 nats on Llama-3-8B, while maintaining tightly clustered mean future-signature distortion; a five-backbone sweep preserves the positive direction of Sharedness Gain. The figure-aligned transplantation analysis gives Shared the strongest joint target-correctness, locality, copy-preservation, and composite profile, and API-aligned paths mediate 0.749 of the target effect versus 0.150 for matched null paths. In the blind four-class model-organism test, 14/16 architectures are recovered, with one observed non-Shared to Shared error among 12 non-Shared organisms. These results support an economical reusable causal interface within the tested operation banks, while keeping the claim explicitly conditional on the candidate architectures, interventions, and held-out futures.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

SPAR-Hate: Auditor-Guided Multi-Perspective Role Reasoning for Bilingual Hate Speech Parsing

Hate speech research has moved from coarse-grained classification towards structured parsing, where systems jointly identify targets, supporting arguments, and target-level labels. Documents with multiple targets, conflicting local readings, or culturally coded language make these bindings difficult to recover. SPAR-Hate is an auditor-guided multi-perspective role-reasoning framework for bilingual hate speech parsing. It decomposes each document into local focus units, elicits evidence-grounded candidates from Victim, Moderator, and Cultural Bystander perspectives, resolves candidate conflicts under grounding and schema constraints, and reassembles sample-level predictions. Experiments on STATE-ToxiCN and a controlled TBO split show gains across local and API backbones, concentrated on strict joint target-argument-label metrics. Full-test integrated-prompt controls, component ablations, and bounded-arbitration diagnostics identify the contribution of separated perspective generation and arbitration. Structured teacher traces also support training a smaller student model.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Randomization inference for treatment effects on survival outcomes

The log-rank test and Kaplan--Meier plot are standard tools for analyzing time-to-event data in randomized clinical trials, yet neither provides a summary of the magnitude of the treatment effect. Practitioners typically fill this gap by reporting a hazard ratio from a Cox proportional-hazards model or an acceleration factor from an accelerated failure time (AFT) model, but both require assumptions beyond those needed for the log-rank test or Kaplan--Meier estimator. We propose two nonparametric confidence intervals for scalar effect-size summaries, an additive shift c and a multiplicative factor $ρ$, obtained by inverting the log-rank test under sharp null hypotheses of constant treatment effects. Building on the randomization-inference framework of Li and Small (2023), both intervals are valid under the randomization distribution alone, requiring no assumptions for the event-time distribution. We evaluate the proposed multiplicative interval via simulation, finding that it maintains nominal coverage across a range of censoring rates and sample sizes, including under data-generating processes that misspecify a parametric AFT model, while incurring only a modest efficiency loss compared to parametric AFT inference under correct specification. We illustrate the approach using data from a randomized trial of rhDNase for cystic fibrosis and provide R code and a Shiny application for ease of implementation.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Expert-Guided Multimodal Fusion for Unified Emotion and Sentiment Analysis

Multimodal emotion understanding requires the integration of heterogeneous data sources, including text, audio, and visual modalities, while simultaneously addressing discrete emotion recognition and continuous sentiment analysis. We propose EGMF, a unified framework that combines expert-guided multimodal fusion with large language models to achieve superior performance across both tasks. At the core of our framework is a multi-scale expert network, comprising a local expert for capturing subtle emotional nuances, a semantic correlation expert for modeling cross-modal relationships, and a global context expert for understanding long-range dependencies. These experts are adaptively integrated via hierarchical dynamic gating, enabling context-aware feature selection and modality weighting. The enhanced multimodal representations are seamlessly incorporated into the language model through pseudo token injection and prompt-based conditioning, allowing a single generative framework to handle both classification and regression tasks. We employ parameter-efficient LoRA fine-tuning to maintain computational efficiency. Extensive experiments on bilingual benchmark datasets (MELD, CHERMA, MOSEI, SIMS-V2) demonstrate that EGMF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy, cross-lingual robustness, and the discovery of universal patterns in multimodal emotional expressions.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Signal or Spurious Cue? A Randomized Audit of Survey-Country Metadata in LLM Social Inference

Survey-country metadata can improve an LLM's forecast of an individual response when informative, yet the same cue may redirect the forecast when assigned at random. A within-record audit tests whether disclosing a random label's uniform, record-independent origin reduces its country-directed uptake, and whether verified survey country lowers held-out Brier loss. Independent population anchors and recorded human answers measure direction and consequence across five fixed API models, six countries, and seven development-selected targets. In the primary post-review 72-record panel, opaque and disclosed-random labels each produced country-direction shifts of 0.214. Paired attenuation was 0.0003 (95% CI [-0.0157, 0.0166]). Verified country reduced Brier loss by 0.040 (95% CI [0.024, 0.056]), while random-label regret included zero. A non-overlapping mixed-coverage consistency panel retained positive disclosed-random movement and verified utility, while attenuation remained uncertain. On the selected targets, verified metadata was useful in both panels, but disclosure did not reliably attenuate random-label uptake. PROV-FORECAST contains 14,400 paired item-level probability distributions from the corrected panel.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

MRI2Rep: Autoregressive Structured Report Generation for 3D Liver MRI

Manual reporting of 3D MRI studies is time-consuming, yet end-to-end structured report generation for 3D liver MRI remains underexplored due to volumetric complexity and scarce paired data. We propose MRI2Rep, an autoregressive framework for liver MRI report generation. From 3,929 real-world MRI-report pairs acquired over a 10-year single-institution cohort, a Report-to-Label Canonicalization (RLC) module converts free-text reports into structured, closed-vocabulary diagnostic sequences without lesion-level annotations. On a held-out test set, MRI2Rep achieves 76.0% case-level sensitivity, 29.4% lesion-level F1, compared with no more than 8.3% for adapted medical vision-language baselines, and 82.4% liver-level accuracy. In a blinded reader study, two radiologists rated 75% and 70% of AI-generated reports as clinically acceptable, compared with 95% and 100% for original reports. Our automated LLM-based judge, LLM-Eval, rated 61.8% of AI-generated reports as acceptable, applying a stricter standard and supporting its use as a conservative proxy. To our knowledge, this is the first end-to-end LI-RADS-structured reporting system for 3D liver MRI.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Ferromagnetic broadband sensing of axionlike dark matter

Levitated particles have demonstrated ultrahigh sensitivity to magnetic fields and accelerations owing to their extremely low dissipation. Such systems have strong potential for fundamental physics research, particularly for the detection of axions and axionlike particles, well-motivated dark matter candidates spanning a broad mass range. In this context, both high sensitivity and large bandwidth are essential. Here, we demonstrate a levitated magnet magnetometer based on an engineered double-resonance mode, achieving an effective linewidth at its optimal sensitivity that is approximately three orders of magnitude broader than those of previous approaches. Together with a hard-magnet array that enhances the axion-induced signal and soft-ferromagnetic shielding that suppresses environmental magnetic noise, this system constitutes a hybrid ferromagnetic platform for axionlike dark matter searches. We search for axionlike dark matter through its photon coupling $g_{aγ}$ over the $40$-$3000\,\mathrm{Hz}$ frequency range and establish new direct limits in this frequency band. The best sensitivity is achieved near the upper resonance around $276\,\mathrm{Hz}$, where the magnetometer reaches a magnetic-field resolution of $0.7\,\mathrm{fT}$, corresponding to a limit of $g_{aγ}\sim10^{-7}\,\mathrm{GeV}^{-1}$. At this frequency, this result improves upon previous direct limits by more than four orders of magnitude. The demonstrated high-bandwidth levitated sensor may also enable a broad range of applications, including biological sensing and precision measurements.

hep-ex↗

arXiv2026

Sensitivity Analysis for the Test-Negative Design

The test-negative design has become popular for evaluating the effectiveness of post-licensure vaccines using observational data. In addition to its logistical convenience on data collection, the design is also believed to control for the differential health-care-seeking behavior between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, an important while often unmeasured confounder between the vaccination and infection. Hence, the design has been employed routinely to monitor seasonal flu vaccines and more recently to measure the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness. Despite its popularity, the design has been questioned, in particular about its ability to fully control for the unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we explore deviations from a perfect test-negative design, and propose various sensitivity analysis methods for estimating the effect of vaccination measured by the causal odds ratio on the subpopulation of individuals with good health-care-seeking behavior. We start with point identification of the causal odds ratio under a test-negative design, comparing different forms of identification assumptions and their corresponding estimands. We then propose two approaches for conducting sensitivity analysis, addressing the influence of the unmeasured confounding in two different ways. Specifically, one approach investigates partial control for unmeasured confounding in the test-negative design, while the other examines the impact of unmeasured confounding on both vaccination and infection. Furthermore, we combine these approaches to provide narrower bounds on the true causal odds ratio, and further sharpen the bounds by restricting the treatment effect heterogeneity. Finally, we apply the proposed methods to evaluate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines using observational data from test-negative designs.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Randomization Tests for Distributions of Individual Treatment Effects via Combined Rank Statistics

What proportion of treated units actually benefited from an experimental intervention? What is the median or the largest individual treatment effect? This paper develops methods for answering such questions about the distribution of individual causal effects in randomized experiments. Existing approaches require the analyst to select a rank-based test statistic before observing the data. A poor choice can substantially reduce power, while searching over multiple test statistics and adjusting for multiplicity using Bonferroni correction also incurs power loss. We propose inference procedures that adaptively combine multiple rank-based statistics while maintaining finite-sample validity. For stratified experiments, we further develop weighting schemes that effectively aggregate evidence across strata of heterogeneous sizes. The resulting combined test achieves power comparable to, or exceeding, that of the best individual test, without requiring prior knowledge of the optimal statistic. When applied to a randomized experiment evaluating a teacher training program, the combined test suggests that roughly half of treated teachers benefited, whereas a single rank-based test may indicate only a small minority. Thus, the choice of test determined whether the program appears broadly successful or narrowly effective.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

TCDA: Thread-Constrained Discourse-Aware Modeling for Conversational Sentiment Quadruple Analysis

Conversational Aspect-based Sentiment Quadruple Analysis (DiaASQ) needs to capture the complex interrelationships in multiple rounds of dialogues. Existing methods usually employ simple Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN), which introduce structural noise and fail to consider the temporal sequence of the dialogues, or use standard RoPE, which implicitly captures relative distances in a flat sequence but cannot clearly separate the token-level syntactic order from the utterance-level progression, and may suffer from the Distance Dilution problem. To address these issues, we propose a new framework that combines Thread-Constrained Directed Acyclic Graph (TC-DAG) and Discourse-Aware Rotary Position Embedding (D-RoPE). Specifically, TC-DAG filters out cross-thread noise based on thread constraints, maintains global connectivity through root anchoring, and incorporates the temporal sequence of the dialogues. D-RoPE aligns multi-layer semantics using dual-stream projection and multi-scale frequency signals, captures thread dependencies using tree-like distances, and alleviates the token-level Distance Dilution problem by incorporating utterance-level progressions. Experimental results on two benchmark datasets demonstrate that our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Design-based nested instrumental variable analysis

Two binary instrumental variables (IVs) are nested if individuals who comply under one binary IV also comply under the other. This situation often arises when the two IVs represent different intensities of encouragement or discouragement to take the treatment, with one stronger than the other. In a nested IV structure, treatment effects can be identified for two latent subgroups: always-compliers and switchers. Always-compliers are individuals who comply even under the weaker IV, while switchers are those who do not comply under the weaker IV but do under the stronger IV. We introduce a novel pair-of-pairs nested IV design, where each matched stratum consists of four units organized in two pairs. We develop design-based inference for the always-complier sample average treatment effect and switcher sample average treatment effect. In a nested IV analysis, IV assignment is randomized within each IV pair; however, whether a study unit receives the weaker or stronger IV may not be randomized. To address this complication, we then propose a novel partly biased randomization scheme and study design-based inference under this new scheme. Using extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate the validity of the proposed method even in challenging scenarios with small sample sizes and a low proportion of switchers. Applying the nested IV framework, we estimated that 52.2% (95% CI: 50.4%-53.9%) of participants enrolled at the Henry Ford Health System in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial were always-compliers, while 26.7% (95% CI: 24.5%-28.9%) were switchers. Among always-compliers, flexible sigmoidoscopy was associated with a trend toward a decreased colorectal cancer rate. No effect was detected among switchers. This offers a richer interpretation of why no increase in the intention-to-treat effect was observed after 1997, even though the compliance rate rose.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Re$^2$MoGen: Open-Vocabulary Motion Generation via LLM Reasoning and Physics-Aware Refinement

Text-to-motion (T2M) generation aims to control the behavior of a target character via textual descriptions. Leveraging text-motion paired datasets, existing T2M models have achieved impressive performance in generating high-quality motions within the distribution of their training data. However, their performance deteriorates notably when the motion descriptions differ significantly from the training texts. To address this issue, we propose Re$^2$MoGen, a Reasoning and Refinement open-vocabulary Motion Generation framework that leverages enhanced Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning to generate an initial motion planning and then refine its physical plausibility via reinforcement learning (RL) post-training. Specifically, Re$^2$MoGen consists of three stages: We first employ Monte Carlo tree search to enhance the LLM's reasoning ability in generating reasonable keyframes of the motion based on text prompts, specifying only the root and several key joints' positions to ease the reasoning process. Then, we apply a human pose model as a prior to optimize the full-body poses based on the planned keyframes and use the resulting incomplete motion to supervise fine-tuning a pre-trained motion generator via a dynamic temporal matching objective, enabling spatiotemporal completion. Finally, we use post-training with physics-aware reward to refine motion quality to eliminate physical implausibility in LLM-planned motions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework can generate semantically consistent and physically plausible motions and achieve state-of-the-art performance in open-vocabulary motion generation.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Development Status of the KIPM Detector Consortium

A Kinetic Inductance Phonon-Mediated Detector is a calorimeter that uses kinetic inductance detectors to read out phonon signals from the device substrate. We have established a consortium comprising university and national lab groups dedicated to advancing the state of the art in these detectors, with the ultimate goal of designing a detector sub-eV threshold on energy deposited in the substrate, enabling searches for both light dark matter and low-energy neutrino interactions. This consortium brings together experts in kinetic inductance detector design, phonon and quasiparticle dynamics, and noise modeling, along with specialized fabrication facilities, test platforms, and unique calibration capabilities. Recently, our consortium has demonstrated a resolution on energy absorbed by the sensor of 2.1 eV, the current record for such devices. The current focus of the consortium is modeling and improving the phonon collection efficiency and implementing low-$\boldsymbol{T_c}$ superconductors, both of which serve to improve the overall energy resolution and threshold of the detectors.

physics.ins-det↗

arXiv2026

Enhanced inference for distributions and quantiles of individual treatment effects in various experiments

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity has become increasingly important in many fields. In this paper we study distributions and quantiles of individual treatment effects to provide a more comprehensive and robust understanding of treatment effects beyond usual averages, despite they are more challenging to infer due to nonidentifiability from observed data. Recent randomization-based approaches offer finite-sample valid inference for treatment effect distributions and quantiles in both completely randomized and stratified randomized experiments, but can be overly conservative by assuming the worst-case scenario where units with large effects are all assigned to the treated (or control) group. We introduce two improved methods to enhance the power of these existing approaches. The first method reinterprets existing approaches as inferring treatment effects among only treated or control units, and then combines the inference for treated and control units to infer treatment effects for all units. The second method explicitly controls for the actual number of treated units with large effects. Both simulation and applications demonstrate the substantial gain from the improved methods. These methods are further extended to sampling-based experiments as well as quasi-experiments from matching, in which the ideas for both improved methods play critical and complementary roles.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Dark Matter Detection Using Phonon Sensing in Amorphous Materials

We present a concept for a tabletop-scale detector with an amorphous target designed to search for dark matter absorption into phonon excitations. In crystalline materials, absorption occurs only at narrow resonances where the dark matter mass matches a zero momentum optical phonon mode, whereas amorphous targets provide a broadband response that can substantially enhance the absorption rate away from these resonances. The predicted backgrounds arise from the relaxation of disorder-induced metastable defects in the amorphous target, as well as from low-energy noise intrinsic to superconducting phonon sensors. A prototype detector with a target mass of only a few $μ$g could provide broadband sensitivity to dark photon absorption across the 50 meV-200 meV mass range, probing up to two orders of magnitude beyond existing constraints.

hep-ph↗