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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
arXiv2012

Long-term and blow-up behaviors of exponential moments in multi-dimensional affine diffusions

This paper considers multi-dimensional affine processes with continuous sample paths. By analyzing the Riccati system, which is associated with affine processes via the transform formula, we fully characterize the regions of exponents in which exponential moments of a given process do not explode at any time or explode at a given time. In these two cases, we also compute the long-term growth rate and the explosion rate for exponential moments. These results provide a handle to study implied volatility asymptotics in models where returns of stock prices are described by affine processes whose exponential moments do not have an explicit formula.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2010

Morse Potential, Contour Integrals, and Asian Options

Completeness of the eigenfunctions of a quantum mechanical system is crucial for its probability interpretation. By using the method of contour integral we give properly normalized eigenfunctions for both discrete and continuum spectrum of the Morse potential, and explicitly prove the completeness relation. As an application we use our spectral decomposition formula to study the problem of the pricing of an Asian option traded in financial markets.

quant-ph↗
arXiv2010

A la Carte of Correlation Models: Which One to Choose?

In this paper we propose a copula contagion mixture model for correlated default times. The model includes the well known factor, copula, and contagion models as its special cases. The key advantage of such a model is that we can study the interaction of different models and their pricing impact. Specifically, we model the marginal default times to follow some contagion intensity processes coupled with copula dependence structure. We apply the total hazard construction method to generate ordered default times and numerically compare the pricing impact of different models on basket CDSs and CDOs in the presence of exponential decay and counterparty risk.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2011

Conditional Density Models for Asset Pricing

We model the dynamics of asset prices and associated derivatives by consideration of the dynamics of the conditional probability density process for the value of an asset at some specified time in the future. In the case where the price process is driven by Brownian motion, an associated "master equation" for the dynamics of the conditional probability density is derived and expressed in integral form. By a "model" for the conditional density process we mean a solution to the master equation along with the specification of (a) the initial density, and (b) the volatility structure of the density. The volatility structure is assumed at any time and for each value of the argument of the density to be a functional of the history of the density up to that time. In practice one specifies the functional modulo sufficient parametric freedom to allow for the input of additional option data apart from that implicit in the initial density. The scheme is sufficiently flexible to allow for the input of various types of data depending on the nature of the options market and the class of valuation problem being undertaken. Various examples are studied in detail, with exact solutions provided in some cases.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2010

Heath-Jarrow-Morton-Musiela equation with linear volatility

The paper is concerned with the problem of existence of solutions for the Heath-Jarrow-Morton equation with linear volatility. Necessary conditions and sufficient conditions for the existence of weak solutions and strong solutions are provided. It is shown that the key role is played by the logarithmic growth conditions of the Laplace exponent.

math.PR↗
arXiv2010

Hedging Pure Endowments with Mortality Derivatives

In recent years, a market for mortality derivatives began developing as a way to handle systematic mortality risk, which is inherent in life insurance and annuity contracts. Systematic mortality risk is due to the uncertain development of future mortality intensities, or {\it hazard rates}. In this paper, we develop a theory for pricing pure endowments when hedging with a mortality forward is allowed. The hazard rate associated with the pure endowment and the reference hazard rate for the mortality forward are correlated and are modeled by diffusion processes. We price the pure endowment by assuming that the issuing company hedges its contract with the mortality forward and requires compensation for the unhedgeable part of the mortality risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. The major result of this paper is that the value per contract solves a linear partial differential equation as the number of contracts approaches infinity. One can represent the limiting price as an expectation under an equivalent martingale measure. Another important result is that hedging with the mortality forward may raise or lower the price of this pure endowment comparing to its price without hedging, as determined in Bayraktar et al. [2009]. The market price of the reference mortality risk and the correlation between the two portfolios jointly determine the cost of hedging. We demonstrate our results using numerical examples.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2010

Parsimonious HJM Modelling for Multiple Yield-Curve Dynamics

For a long time interest-rate models were built on a single yield curve used both for discounting and forwarding. However, the crisis that has affected financial markets in the last years led market players to revise this assumption and accommodate basis-swap spreads, whose remarkable widening can no longer be neglected. In recent literature we find many proposals of multi-curve interest-rate models, whose calibration would typically require market quotes for all yield curves. At present this is not possible since most of the quotes are missing or extremely illiquid. Thanks to a suitable extension of the HJM framework, we propose a parsimonious model based on observed rates that deduces yield-curve dynamics from a single family of Markov processes. Furthermore, we detail a specification of the model reporting numerical examples of calibration to quoted market data.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2012

Storage option an Analytic approach

The mathematical problem of the static storage optimisation is formulated and solved by means of a variational analysis. The solution obtained in implicit form is shedding light on the most important features of the optimal exercise strategy. We show how the solution depends on different constraint types including carry cost and cycling constraint. We investigate the relation between intrinsic and stochastic solutions. In particular we give another proof that the stochastic problem has a "bang-bang" optimal exercise strategy. We also show why the optimal stochastic exercise decision is always close to the intrinsic one. In the second half we develop a perturbation analysis to solve the stochastic optimisation problem. The obtained approximate solution allows us to estimate the time value of the storage option. In particular we find an answer to rather academic question of asymptotic time value for the mean reversion parameter approaching zero or infinity. We also investigate the differences between swing and storage problems. The analytical results are compared with numerical valuations and found to be in a good agreement.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2010

Dangers of Bilateral Counterparty Risk: the fundamental impact of closeout conventions

We analyze the practical consequences of the bilateral counterparty risk adjustment. We point out that past literature assumes that, at the moment of the first default, a risk-free closeout amount will be used. We argue that the legal (ISDA) documentation suggests in many points that a substitution closeout should be used. This would take into account the risk of default of the survived party. We show how the bilateral counterparty risk adjustment changes strongly when a substitution closeout amount is considered. We model the two extreme cases of default independence and co-monotonicity, which highlight pros and cons of both risk free and substitution closeout formulations, and allow us to interpret the outcomes as dramatic consequences on default contagion. Finally, we analyze the situation when collateral is present.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2010

A finite dimensional approximation for pricing moving average options

We propose a method for pricing American options whose pay-off depends on the moving average of the underlying asset price. The method uses a finite dimensional approximation of the infinite-dimensional dynamics of the moving average process based on a truncated Laguerre series expansion. The resulting problem is a finite-dimensional optimal stopping problem, which we propose to solve with a least squares Monte Carlo approach. We analyze the theoretical convergence rate of our method and present numerical results in the Black-Scholes framework.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2010

Cumulant Expansion and Monthly Sum Derivative

Cumulant expansion is used to derive accurate closed-form approximation for Monthly Sum Options in case of constant volatility model. Payoff of Monthly Sum Option is based on sum of $N$ caped (and probably floored) returns. It is noticed, that $1/\sqrt{N}$ can be used as a small parameter in Edgeworth expansion. First two leading terms of this expansion are calculated here. It is shown that the suggest closed-form approximation is in a good agreement with numerical results for typical mode parameters.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2010

Calibration of One- and Two-Factor Models For Valuation of Energy Multi-Asset Derivative Contracts

We study historical calibration of one- and two-factor models that are known to describe relatively well the dynamics of energy underlyings such as spot and index natural gas or oil prices at different physical locations or regional power prices. We take into account uneven frequency of data due to weekends, holidays, and possible missing data. We study the case when several one- and two-factor models are used in the joint model with correlated model factors and present examples of joint calibration for daily natural gas prices at several locations in the US and for regional hourly power prices.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2010

Static replications with traffic light options

It is well known that any sufficiently regular one-dimensional payoff function has an explicit static hedge by bonds, forward contracts and lots of vanilla options. We show that the natural extension of the corresponding representation leads to a static hedge based on the same instruments along with traffic light options, which have recently been introduced in the market. One big advantage of these replication strategies is the easy structure of the hedge. Hence, traffic light options are particularly powerful building blocks for more complicated bivariate options. While it is well known that the second strike derivative of non-discounted prices of vanilla options are related to the risk-neutral density of the underlying asset price in the corresponding absolutely continuous settings, similar statements hold for traffic light options in sufficiently regular bivariate settings.

q-fin.RM↗
arXiv2011

A Numerical Study of Radial Basis Function Based Methods for Options Pricing under the One Dimension Jump-diffusion Model

The aim of this chapter is to show how option prices in jump-diffusion models can be computed using meshless methods based on Radial Basis Function (RBF) interpolation. The RBF technique is demonstrated by solving the partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) in one-dimension for the American put and the European vanilla call/put options on dividend-paying stocks in the Merton and Kou jump-diffusion models. The radial basis function we select is the Cubic Spline. We also propose a simple numerical algorithm for finding a finite computational range of an improper integral term in the PIDE so that the accuracy of approximation of the integral can be improved. Moreover, the solution functions of the PIDE are approximated explicitly by RBFs which have exact forms so we can easily compute the global integral by any kind of numerical quadrature. Finally, we will not only show numerically that our scheme is second order accurate in both spatial and time variables in a European case but also second order accurate in spatial variables and first order accurate in time variables in an American case.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2011

A unified approach to determining the early exercise boundary position at expiry for American style of general class of derivatives

In this paper, we present a new method for calculating the limit of early exercise boundary at expiry. We price American style of general derivative using a formula expressed as a sum of the value of European style of derivative and so called American premium. We use the latter expression to calculate an analytic formula for limit of early exercise boundary at expiry. Method applied on American style plain vanilla, Asian and lookback options yields identical results with already known values. Results for selected American style of derivative strategies are compared with limits calculated by the PSOR method.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2010

The Impossible Trio in CDO Modeling

We show that stochastic recovery always leads to counter-intuitive behaviors in the risk measures of a CDO tranche - namely, continuity on default and positive credit spread risk cannot be ensured simultaneously. We then propose a simple recovery variance regularization method to control the magnitude of negative credit spread risk while preserving the continuity on default.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2011

Pricing and Hedging in Affine Models with Possibility of Default

We propose a general framework for the simultaneous modeling of equity, government bonds, corporate bonds and derivatives. Uncertainty is generated by a general affine Markov process. The setting allows for stochastic volatility, jumps, the possibility of default and correlation between different assets. We show how to calculate discounted complex moments by solving a coupled system of generalized Riccati equations. This yields an efficient method to compute prices of power payoffs. European calls and puts as well as binaries and asset-or-nothing options can be priced with the fast Fourier transform methods of Carr and Madan (1999) and Lee (2005). Other European payoffs can be approximated with a linear combination of government bonds, power payoffs and vanilla options. We show the results to be superior to using only government bonds and power payoffs or government bonds and vanilla options. We also give conditions for European continent claims in our framework to be replicable if enough financial instruments are liquidly tradable and study dynamic hedging strategies. As an example we discuss a Heston-type stochastic volatility model with possibility of default and stochastic interest rates.

q-fin.PR↗