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arXiv2026

Diffusion-Based Refinement for Kilometer-Scale Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting

Localized extreme precipitation is a major trigger of urban flash floods and landslides, yet producing nowcasts that combine fine spatial detail with probabilistic uncertainty remains challenging. Here we introduce exPreCast-ENS, a conditional residual diffusion framework that transforms the deterministic 4 km radar nowcaster exPreCast into a 1 km probabilistic ensemble while correcting systematic forecast errors. Conditioning on both the forecast and preceding radar observations lets the ensemble-mean correct the baseline rather than perturb it, while members represent unresolved fine-scale variability. Over the Korean Peninsula, skill improves with ensemble size. In two high-impact events in 2023, a 30-member ensemble recovers 38-47% of heavy-rain pixels missed by exPreCast while retaining approximately 95% of its correct detections and alarming on under 1% of the pixels it correctly left clear. The method generates a 1-h forecast in 3.4 s on a single GPU and yields consistent improvements on the French regional MeteoNet radar dataset.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Checklist to assess the energy and carbon impacts of ML/AI applications in Earth System Modeling

As machine learning and artificial intelligence find their way into nearly every aspect of climate, weather, and Earth system modeling, it is worth pausing to consider what our design decisions imply for the science and for the computational resources we consume. A growing body of literature addresses the ethical and sustainable development of ML/AI, yet translating these principles into day-to-day research practice remains a challenge as most of best practices are dispersed across multiple studies and commentaries. Here, we distill these discussions into a practical checklist that ML/AI and Earth system science practitioners can use to assess and reduce the environmental footprint of their own applications, organised around the successive stages of the model development pipeline. We complement the checklist with a selection of metrics drawn from the literature for estimating the energy consumption and carbon footprint of a project. For each question, we point to concrete examples and actionable suggestions from recent literature, aiming to bridge the gap between aspirational principles and the decisions researchers face at every stage of the development cycle.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

A Sensor-Adaptive Incremental Learning Framework for Artifact Detection in Satellite Precipitation Data

Historically, retrieving rainfall data from satellite imagery has been the domain of space agencies. However, in recent years, the development of cheaper, more compact satellites (SmallSats) capable of detecting rainfall proxies has led to a significant increase in private-sector initiatives for satellite launch and surface precipitation products. This rapid growth has yet to be matched by data validation efforts. Consequently, the need for a robust tool to detect anomalies in near-real-time data before it is disseminated to the public has become critical. In this paper, we present the development of an anomaly-detection system to identify artifacts in global satellite-based rainfall products. The developed framework leverages pre-trained computer vision models and incorporates scarce human-labeled data to detect specific anomalies. Our proposed anomaly detection strategy is tested on data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS). Results demonstrate the efficacy of our approach at separating regular orbits from artifact-containing orbits for each satellite, with performance comparable to state-of-the-art in-place methods. Additionally, the framework offers explainability and the capacity for iterative refinement following false-positive or false-negative classifications.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End AI Weather Forecasting: Disentangling Observation and Model Contributions

End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of its cost. These systems are deterministic and issue no uncertainty. Here we render the Aardvark Weather model probabilistic by attaching one stochastic mechanism to each component: learned, input-dependent noise at the observation encoder, capturing aleatoric uncertainty inherited from the observing system, and Monte Carlo dropout in the processor, capturing epistemic uncertainty in the learned dynamics. The resulting nested ensemble attributes forecast spread to the two sources through a law-of-total-variance decomposition, cross-checked by withholding observation streams. Probabilistic finetuning significantly improves the mean forecast, by 4.2% on average across variables and lead times. The ensemble is calibrated against ERA5 through the medium range (spread-skill ratio 0.98), keeps station RMSE within 2.4% of the deterministic model while beating it in CRPS at every lead time, and trails the operational ECMWF ensemble. The encoder branch behaves as observation-driven uncertainty. Component-attributed uncertainty makes end-to-end forecasts more transparent, a step toward observation-driven digital twins of the atmosphere.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

From Nowcasting to Forecasting: Adapting a Reanalysis-Trained

Accurate cloud-cover forecasts are important for temperature prediction, radiation forecasting, and solar-power operations. Short-range forecasting methods can preserve observed cloud placement during the first forecast hours, but their skill decreases when cloud fields evolve through formation, dissipation and deformation. Longer lead times require accounting for atmospheric evolution, but operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts may not accurately represent the satellite-observed cloud state at initialization. We develop CloudCast v2, a machine-learning model for 12-hour cloud-cover forecasting from observation-based initial conditions. The model is first trained on the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (Ridal2024) to learn cloud-evolution dynamics, and is then adapted to satellite-derived cloud fields using conditional flow matching (Lipman2023), a generative method that transforms noise into cloud-cover forecasts conditioned on the observed initial cloud fields and NWP inputs. CloudCast v2 reduces mean absolute error by 10% relative to its predecessor, CloudCast v1 (Partio2025), over the 1-12 h range. It also overtakes CloudCast v1 in fractions skill score, a neighborhood-based measure of spatial agreement, after approximately 3-6 h, depending on the cloudiness category. These results show that observation-initialized machine-learning forecasts can extend beyond the usual 1-3-hour nowcasting range while retaining spatial detail from satellite cloud fields.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

GenONet: A Generative operator Network for High-Resolution Precipitation Nowcasting

High-resolution precipitation nowcasting is critical for reducing the impacts of severe weather but remains difficult because of rapid storm evolution. Deep learning models have shown great promise for this task, but their predictive skill often deteriorates over longer forecast horizons. This leads to increasingly blurry forecasts that fail to capture the complex, non-linear evolution of storm systems. In order to address these limitations, we introduce Spatio-Temporal U-DeepONet (GenONet), a novel architecture for long-range precipitation forecasting up to 3 hours, specifically designed to produce sharp and physically consistent results. GenONet's architecture pioneers the use of a Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) as a generator within a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) framework for this task. The DeepONet learns the continuous-time dynamics of precipitation, ensuring stability over long forecast horizons. Adversial training against a spatio-temporal discriminator compels the model to produce sharp, coherent forecasts, while a physics-informed loss regularizer, derived from the Moisture Conservation Equation, improves physical plausibility in our ablation setting. Quantitative evaluations show that our model achieves consistently higher scores on most of the metrics, especially for highintensity events and at longer lead times. Qualitatively, GenONet produces structurally coherent forecasts that maintain their integrity, whereas baseline models degrade into indistinct patterns. Finally, an ablation study confirms the benefit of this physics-informed loss, highlighting the strength of combining operator learning with adversarial training.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Distilling deep optical flow stereo methods to retrieve dense three-dimensional wind fields

Geostationary atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) provide the dense horizontal wind vectors (u,v) and heights ingested into data assimilation systems. Traditional AMVs track features using window-based cross-correlation and estimate heights via infrared brightness temperatures paired with numerical weather prediction (NWP) background states, creating a circular dependency that yields inaccurate heights, high computational cost, and sparse retrievals. Stereo winds from GEO-GEO and GEO-LEO geometrically resolve heights from parallax shifts across different poses, eliminating NWP dependence and improving accuracy, but they remain computationally heavy with limited coverage. In this work, we replace window-based tracking in stereo matching with deep optical flow for efficient, improved retrieval. Fine-tuning balances a self-supervised geometric residual loss with supervised radiosonde reconstruction. To eliminate multi-satellite overlap requirements, we distill the stereo teacher into a single-satellite student model. Chi-square and height uncertainties from the teacher are emulated by the student for quality assurance. The student generates winds across full-disk GEO imagery globally. Validation compares stereo and student models against radiosondes, operational AMVs, ERA5 reanalysis, and EarthCARE cloud profiles. Results through triple collocation show that stereo winds improve performance beyond operational AMVs for water vapor bands (6.2, 6.9, and 7.3 μm), wit degradation in the long-wave infrared (11.2 μm) band.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

CDEP Agent: Connecting Meteorologically Detected Temporal Compound Events to Real-World Documentary Evidence

Compound drought-to-extreme-precipitation (CDEP) events are recognized in climate science as a growing driver of extreme impact, but whether this recognition carries over into real-world early warning and post-event documentation is unknown, so a meteorologically real CDEP event may pass with neither advance warning nor any later record. Here we present CDEP Agent, an auditable LLM-agent framework that tests this mismatch directly by linking CDEP candidates detected from meteorological reanalysis to real-world hazard and impact evidence across sources with different spatial scales, temporal resolutions, and reporting conventions. Using California as a case study, we identify 408 candidate CDEP events from ERA5 observations during 2021-2025 and evaluate each against the U.S. Drought Monitor, NOAA Storm Events, and public webpages along five dimensions: antecedent drought, extreme rainfall, local impact, hazard-impact attribution, and explicit drought-to-rainfall linkage. Only 34.3% of candidates are corroborated on both hazard components, and just 1.5% are ever explicitly linked to their antecedent drought, indicating that most meteorologically detected CDEP events go undocumented and their compound nature almost never enters the record at all. Our framework gives climate scientists a way to test physical event definitions against what actually gets documented, and gives social scientists, economists, and disaster-response agencies a provenance-linked evidence base for compound events that current warning and reporting systems largely fail to capture.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

LiveSim: Simulating Environment-Shaped Users in Multi-Agent Live-Stream Ecosystems

User behavior simulation with large language models~(LLMs) is increasingly used to support multi-agent ecosystem simulation. Existing simulators typically rely on static user profiles inferred from historical observations, which become inadequate in socially intensive environments such as live streaming where interaction dynamics continuously reshape user behavior. We propose \textbf{LiveSim}, an LLM-based framework for live-stream ecosystem simulation. It represents users as editable behavioral hypotheses and progressively refines them through trajectory-grounded interactions, where discrepancies between simulated and observed trajectories reveal missing environmental shaping effects. These signals are further extracted as transferable environment-behavior patterns and accumulated in a collective behavioral memory to improve user-level behavioral fidelity and support ecosystem-level simulation. Experiments on real-world live-stream risk-control data validate the effectiveness of LiveSim in improving user-level behavioral fidelity and enabling ecosystem-level analysis of risk evolution and platform intervention effects.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Revisiting Greedy Decoding for Visual Question Answering: A Calibration Perspective

Stochastic sampling strategies are widely adopted in large language models (LLMs) to balance output coherence and diversity. These heuristics are often inherited in Multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) without task-specific justification. However, we contend that stochastic decoding can be suboptimal for Visual Question Answering (VQA). VQA is a closed-ended task with head-heavy answer distributions where uncertainty is usually epistemic, arising from missing or ambiguous visual evidence rather than plausible continuations. In this work, we provide a theoretical formalization of the relationship between model calibration and predictive accuracy, and derive the sufficient conditions for greedy decoding optimality. Extensive experiments provide empirical evidence for the superiority of greedy decoding over stochastic sampling across multiple benchmarks. Furthermore, we propose Greedy Decoding for Reasoning Models, which outperforms both stochastic sampling and standard greedy decoding in multimodal reasoning scenarios. Overall, our results caution against naively inheriting LLMs decoding heuristics in MLLMs and demonstrate that greedy decoding can be an efficient yet strong default for VQA.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Advancing Subseasonal Forecasting with Machine Learning

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in physics-based dynamical models and data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models. However, model skill drops precipitously at subseasonal timescales (2 - 6 weeks ahead), due to compounding errors, systemic model biases, and the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. To counter this degradation, we introduce probabilistic bias correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that substantially reduces systematic error by learning to correct historical probabilistic forecasts. When applied to the leading dynamical and AI models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), PBC doubles the modest subseasonal skill of the AI Forecasting System and improves the skill of the operationally-debiased dynamical model for 91% of pressure, 92% of temperature, and 98% of precipitation targets. We designed PBC for operational deployment, and, in ECMWF's 2025 real-time forecasting competition, its global forecasts placed first for all weather variables and lead times, outperforming the dynamical models from six operational forecasting centers, an international dynamical multi-model ensemble, ECMWF's AI Forecasting System, and the forecasting systems of 34 teams worldwide. These probabilistic skill gains translate into more accurate prediction of extreme events and have the potential to improve agricultural planning, energy management, and disaster preparedness in vulnerable communities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

GPAgentBench-2K: Benchmarking Large Language Model Agents in Complex Clinical Action Space

Large Language Models (LLMs) show great potential as clinical agents, yet existing benchmarks reduce clinical workflows to static predictions or unconstrained Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with coarse action sets. To address this, we introduce GPAgentBench-2K, the first Constrained MDP (CMDP) LLM-agent benchmark for primary-care clinical decision-making, constructed from expert-validated records of real-world GP encounters. Our environment models a full spectrum of six foundational clinical actions, imposes a topological workflow prior over the action space, and operationalizes safety-informed abstention as a first-class outcome. Evaluating 16 state-of-the-art LLMs reveals a significant performance degradation as the action space scales. Crucially, we uncover a clinical quality-safety gap: even frontier models with the highest diagnosis accuracy violate safety constraints in over half of high-risk cases. Finally, we establish a reference point using Constrained Group Relative Policy Optimization (C-GRPO), and show that while explicitly modeling constraints improves performance over unconstrained RL methods, it remains far from clinically acceptable safety.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

HybridWorldSim: A Scalable and Controllable High-fidelity Simulator for Autonomous Driving

Realistic and controllable simulation is critical for advancing end-to-end autonomous driving, yet existing approaches often struggle to support novel view synthesis under large viewpoint changes or to ensure geometric consistency. We introduce HybridWorldSim, a hybrid simulation framework that integrates multi-traversal neural reconstruction for static backgrounds with generative modeling for dynamic agents. This unified design addresses key limitations of previous methods, enabling the creation of diverse and high-fidelity driving scenarios with reliable visual and spatial consistency. To facilitate robust benchmarking, we further release a new multi-traversal dataset MIRROR that captures a wide range of routes and environmental conditions across different cities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HybridWorldSim surpasses previous state-of-the-art methods, providing a practical and scalable solution for high-fidelity simulation and a valuable resource for research and development in autonomous driving.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Earth observation embeddings are effective sub-grid descriptors for probabilistic weather downscaling

Global weather reanalyses and forecasts resolve the evolving atmospheric state on coarse grids, but site-specific applications require predictions at arbitrary locations where near-surface conditions also depend on unresolved terrain and land-surface properties. Existing probabilistic downscalers address this gap using hand-crafted topographic and surface descriptors. We ask instead whether Earth observation foundation models can provide transferable subgrid surface representations for probabilistic weather downscaling. We augment a convolutional conditional neural process (ConvCNP) that downscales coarse ERA5 reanalysis fields at ~25 km resolution with a learned local surface descriptor, obtained by compressing a patch of TESSERA embeddings at 10 m resolution. Although these embeddings summarize annual surface conditions, they improve downscaling by encoding persistent surface properties that capture a location's departure from the coarse-grid atmospheric state. Across five climatically diverse regions, the embedding improves point and probabilistic skill at stations held out in both space and time, overall improving CRPS skill by 11.5% for 2 m temperature and 6.2% for 10 m wind speed relative to a topography-only ConvCNP baseline. A hand-crafted descriptor incorporating richer surface information than topography alone captures comparable persistent subgrid signal but yields far smaller predictive gains than the learned embedding representation. These improvements persist when forecasts from the Aurora AI model replace ERA5 reanalysis fields and when predicting at newly deployed weather station networks. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence that long-timescale Earth observation embeddings can support short-timescale weather downscaling where subgrid departures are systematically structured by persistent surface properties.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

The Emptiness Problem for Quantum Finite Automata with Classical States

Quantum Finite Automata with Classical states (QFACs) are nondeterministic finite automata over a finite alphabet of quantum operations. We study expressiveness of this model on finite words and the corresponding emptiness problem. We show that regular languages are incomparable with those definable by Quantum Finite Automata (QFAs) and that both are strictly subsumed by QFAC-definable languages. We show that the emptiness problem for a QFAC can be reduced to the emptiness of the language intersection of a QFA and a finite automaton. This intersection is known to be decidable for strict thresholds but undecidable for non-strict cases. Furthermore, we consider the problem for flat QFACs, a restriction where the underlying automata contain no nested loops, and relate it to the higher-dimensional orbit problem, a long-standing open challenge in dynamical systems. Finally, we propose a sound and semi-complete witness searching procedure to verify the non-emptiness of one-loop QFACs, which are sufficiently expressive to represent some prominent quantum algorithms, such as Grover's search and quantum random walks.

cs.FL↗

arXiv2026

Deja Vu in Plots: Leveraging Cross-Session Evidence with Retrieval-Augmented LLMs for Live Streaming Risk Assessment

The rise of live streaming has transformed online interaction, enabling massive real-time engagement but also exposing platforms to complex risks such as scams and coordinated malicious behaviors. Detecting these risks is challenging because harmful actions often accumulate gradually and recur across seemingly unrelated streams. To address this, we propose CS-VAR (Cross-Session Evidence-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Detector) for live streaming risk assessment. In CS-VAR, a lightweight, domain-specific model performs fast session-level risk inference, guided during training by a Large Language Model (LLM) that reasons over retrieved cross-session behavioral evidence and transfers its local-to-global insights to the small model. This design enables the small model to recognize recurring patterns across streams, perform structured risk assessment, and maintain efficiency for real-time deployment. Extensive offline experiments on large-scale industrial datasets, combined with online validation, demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of CS-VAR. Furthermore, CS-VAR provides interpretable, localized signals that effectively empower real-world moderation for live streaming.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

NORi: An ML-Augmented Ocean Boundary Layer Parameterization

NORi is a machine learning (ML) parameterization of ocean boundary layer turbulence that is physics-based and augmented with neural networks. NORi stands for neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) Richardson number (Ri) closure. The physical parameterization is controlled by a Richardson number-dependent diffusivity and viscosity. The neural ODEs are trained to capture the entrainment through the base of the boundary layer, which cannot be represented with a local diffusive closure. The parameterization is trained using large-eddy simulations in an a posteriori fashion, where parameters are calibrated with a loss function that explicitly depends on the actual time-integrated variables of interest rather than the instantaneous subgrid fluxes, which are inherently noisy. NORi conserves tracers by design, uses realistic nonlinear thermodynamics, and demonstrates excellent prediction and generalization capabilities in capturing entrainment dynamics under different convective strengths, background stratifications, rotation, and wind forcings. NORi is shown to simulate the seasonal evolution of the boundary layer at Ocean Weather Station Papa with similar performance to the state-of-the-art two-equation k-epsilon closure. When implemented in a double-gyre simulation, it is numerically stable for at least 100 years, despite only being trained on two-day horizons, and can be run with time steps as long as one hour. Combining highly expressive neural networks with a physically grounded base closure proves to be a robust paradigm for designing parameterizations for climate models: data required and training cost are drastically reduced, inference performance can be directly optimized as a primary objective, and numerical stability is implicitly promoted through training.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

What Did I Just Say? Self-Listening for Full-Duplex Speech Models

Full-duplex spoken language models can listen and speak simultaneously, enabling them to handle interruptions and backchannels in human conversation. However, text generation, speech synthesis, and audio playback proceed asynchronously. As a result, what a model believes it has said may not match what has actually been played to the user. We refer to the problem of recovering from an interruption while remaining aware of the model's realized speech as anchor interruption. To address this problem, we propose Self-Listening, a full-duplex modeling approach that interleaves user speech, model text, and the model's played speech. By feeding the realized speech output back to the model as an input stream, self-listening grounds interruption recovery in what the user has actually heard. We further introduce AnchorSpeech, a collection with homogeneous training and test splits for tracking which items of structured ordered responses have actually been spoken. AnchorSpeech-test evaluates whether a model can respond consistently with the last completed item before an interruption. Experiments show that, compared with full-duplex baselines, models equipped with self-listening mechanism achieve better anchoring performance.

cs.SD↗