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328 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2025

Symmetry-driven embedding of networks in hyperbolic space

Hyperbolic models are known to produce networks with properties observed empirically in most network datasets, including heavy-tailed degree distribution, high clustering, and hierarchical structures. As a result, several embeddings algorithms have been proposed to invert these models and assign hyperbolic coordinates to network data. Current algorithms for finding these coordinates, however, do not quantify uncertainty in the inferred coordinates. We present BIGUE, a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that samples the posterior distribution of a Bayesian hyperbolic random graph model. We show that the samples are consistent with current algorithms while providing added credible intervals for the coordinates and all network properties. We also show that some networks admit two or more plausible embeddings, a feature that an optimization algorithm can easily overlook.

stat.CO↗
arXiv2026

Latency-Response Theory Model: Evaluating Large Language Models via Response Accuracy and Chain-of-Thought Length

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates valid evaluation methods to provide guidance for both downstream applications and actionable future improvements. The Item Response Theory (IRT) model with Computerized Adaptive Testing has recently emerged as a promising framework for evaluating LLMs via their response accuracy. Beyond simple response accuracy, LLMs' chain of thought (CoT) lengths serve as a vital indicator of their reasoning ability. To leverage the CoT length information to assist LLM evaluation, we propose the \textbf{La}tency-\textbf{R}esponse \textbf{T}heory (LaRT) model, which jointly models both the response accuracy and CoT length by introducing a key correlation parameter between the latent ability and the latent speed. We derive an efficient stochastic approximation Expectation-Maximization algorithm for parameter estimation. We establish rigorous identifiability results for the latent ability and latent speed parameters to ensure the statistical validity of their estimation. Through both theoretical asymptotic analyses and simulation studies, we demonstrate LaRT's advantages over IRT in terms of superior estimation accuracy and shorter confidence intervals for latent trait estimation. To evaluate LaRT in real data, we collect responses from diverse LLMs on popular benchmark datasets. We find that LaRT yields different LLM rankings than IRT and outperforms IRT across multiple key evaluation metrics including predictive power, item efficiency, ranking validity, and LLM evaluation efficiency. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Toby-X/Latency-Response-Theory-Model

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Learning a Size-Weight Frontier for Synthetic-Augmented Inference

Synthetic data can improve statistical inference when real data are scarce, but naively treating synthetic samples as real data can introduce bias and lead to unreliable inference. We develop a general framework for synthetic-augmented inference across a population of related tasks. It characterizes synthetic augmentation by the number of synthetic observations and their weight. Central to our framework is a size-weight frontier that specifies, for each weight, the largest synthetic sample size for which all smaller sizes attain the target task-marginal coverage. We estimate this frontier from historical tasks, and establish a finite-sample coverage guarantee simultaneously for all size-weight configurations on or below the estimated frontier. In experiments using large language model responses to augment opinion survey data, our procedure achieves target coverage and substantially narrows confidence intervals.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Selection-Aware Stress Testing for Interactive Agents

Agent evaluations often use one benchmark to choose a workflow and then search for task types where its advantage weakens, so both conclusions are selected from the same data. We introduce Selection-Aware Semantic Stress Testing (\SASST{}), which learns a task reweighting from pre-execution features on discovery tasks and evaluates the same paired comparison on separate confirmation tasks. The protocol checks support and stability, uses joint bounds for all planned claims, and can return no claim. We prove conditional asymptotic validity under stated cluster assumptions. A forty-cluster audit finds Gaussian undercoverage and conservative Bonferroni $t$ bounds. In one 480-episode $τ$-bench study, a $3.75$ point discovery gain vanished on confirmation. A second-model study likewise confirmed neither a workflow benefit nor a stable stress rule.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Diffusion Models in Simulation-Based Inference: A Tutorial Review

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data. Their score-based formulation offers a flexible way to learn conditional or joint distributions over parameters and observations, thereby providing a versatile solution to various modeling problems. In this tutorial review, we synthesize recent developments on diffusion models for SBI, covering design choices for training, inference, and evaluation. We highlight opportunities created by various concepts such as guidance, score composition, flow matching, consistency models, and joint modeling. Furthermore, we discuss how efficiency and statistical accuracy are affected by noise schedules, parameterizations, and samplers. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with case studies across parameter dimensionalities, simulation budgets, and model types, and outline open questions for future research.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

SPACR: Single-Pass Adaptive Training of Uncertainty-Aware Conformal Regressors

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides robust uncertainty guarantees for predictive models, but is typically applied post hoc, which misaligns model training with the conformal goal of producing efficient (i.e., narrow) intervals. We propose SPACR (Single-Pass Adaptive Conformal Regressor), a novel method for directly training uncertainty-aware regressors within a differentiable loss. SPACR jointly optimizes accuracy, efficiency, and validity without batch-splitting or a predefined confidence level during training. As a result, a single SPACR model yields valid prediction intervals at multiple confidence levels during inference, avoiding the costly retraining required by methods like Directly Optimized Inductive Conformal Regression (DOICR). Experiments on diverse tabular and image datasets show that SPACR consistently gives tighter intervals and better coverage-efficiency trade-offs compared to standard CP and DOICR, while significantly reducing computational costs relative to retraining-dependent baselines.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Optimal Adversarial Testing: Extracting Honest Test Results from Dishonest Test Takers

In applications, it is often required to test objects or people to determine their qualities in terms of certain metrics. However, besides being naturally noisy, the test results can be corrupted by adversarial behaviors of objects or people being tested (test takers). For example, dishonest test takers can cheat in the exams to distort the test results. With the development of AI technologies, such distortions driven by cheating using AI technologies are becoming more commonplace and severe. In this paper, we propose optimal testing strategies which can still recover needed test results even if there are cheaters polluting the results. The proposed testing strategies will optimally re-test selected group of test takers using different testing security measures. We determine the optimal testing strategies using a dynamic programming method.

cs.CR↗
arXiv2026

Semiparametric Inference for Counterfactual Regression under Intervention-Driven Shift

We study counterfactual regression, which maps features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This problem is central to decision-making under distribution shift, where treatment patterns may change at deployment. We develop a semiparametric framework for counterfactual regression along a prespecified incremental-intervention path. The target is a finite-dimensional constrained projection of counterfactual risk, estimated using cross-fitted influence-function representations of the program components. For smooth programs with fixed constraints and finite-dimensional programs with estimated linear constraints, we establish consistency and local stability of the optimizer under class-specific conditions, and derive pointwise and uniform first-order expansions. These results yield asymptotically valid inference, including simultaneous confidence bands for the counterfactual regression path. Simulations and an application to SMS reminders illustrate the finite-sample performance and practical applicability of the proposed approach.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Embedded Conditional Independence Tests for Large Language Model Generated Text with an Application to German Parliament Speeches

Conditional independence tests (CITs) test for conditional dependence between two random objects $X$ and $Y$ given a third random object $Z$. Existing CITs have limited applicability to high-dimensional data, especially multimodal data like text. However, we show that such tests are of interest for large language model (LLM) outputs, where we test whether an output $X$ generated from a source text $Z$ carries information about an attribute $Y$ beyond $Z$ itself. For this purpose, we propose embedded CITs (eCITs), which embed $X$ and $Z$ and apply an existing CIT to the resulting representations and to $Y$. We show that, provided the embedding of $Z$ is sufficient, i.e. retains the information $Z$ carries about either $Y$ or the representation of $X$, the null hypothesis transfers from $X$ and $Z$ to their representations, so that a CIT valid for the embedded hypothesis is valid for the original one. We further give conditions for equivalence of the two hypotheses, and show that sufficiency weakens to mean sufficiency when the embedded test targets conditional mean independence. We propose a semi-synthetic simulation design to assess type I error (T1E) control and power of the eCITs for given embedding maps on a specific dataset and task, and use it to evaluate them on our application. Applying the eCITs to German Parliament speeches, we find for all combinations of embedding maps considered that the summaries of two LLMs contain information about the speaker's faction and gender beyond the speech they were generated from.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Model Selection and Parameter Estimation of One-Dimensional Gaussian Mixture Models

In this paper, we study the problem of learning one-dimensional Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) with a specific focus on estimating both the model order and the mixing distribution from independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples. This paper establishes the optimal sampling complexity for model order estimation in one-dimensional Gaussian mixture models. We prove a fundamental lower bound on the number of samples required to correctly identify the number of components with high probability, showing that this limit depends critically on the separation between component means and the total number of components. We then propose a Fourier-based approach to estimate both the model order and the mixing distribution. Our algorithm utilizes Fourier measurements constructed from the samples, and our analysis demonstrates that its sample complexity matches the established lower bound, thereby confirming its optimality. Numerical experiments further show that our method outperforms conventional techniques in terms of efficiency and accuracy.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Sub-Gaussian Concentration and Entropic Normality of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator

It is well known that, under standard regularity conditions, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) satisfies a central limit theorem and converges in distribution to a Gaussian random variable as the sample size grows. This paper strengthens this classical result by developing several stronger forms of asymptotic normality for the normalized MLE. With additional assumptions on the score, we first establish sub-Gaussian tail bounds and convergence of all moments for the normalized estimation error. We then prove an entropic central limit theorem for a smoothed version of the estimator, showing convergence in relative entropy to the limiting Gaussian law. When the Fisher information of the normalized estimate is bounded, or its density has bounded first derivative, we further show that the smoothing can be removed, yielding entropic normality of the MLE itself. The proofs develop auxiliary tools that may be of independent interest, including exponential consistency bounds, high-moment estimates, and entropy-control arguments for the estimator.

cs.IT↗
arXiv2026

Windowed thinning and query complexity for the bouncy particle and Zigzag samplers

Let $μ(d x)\propto e^{-U(x)} d x$ on $\R^d$, where $U$ is $m$-strongly convex and $L$-smooth, and denote by $κ=L/m$ the condition number. We consider windowed thinning, an exact simulation method for the bouncy particle sampler and the coordinate Zigzag process. The method divides a trajectory into deterministic windows and uses a gradient evaluation at the beginning of each window to construct a tractable local envelope for the event rate. Combining this construction with quantitative mixing estimates and finite-time bounds on the expected numbers of bounces and flips yields query complexity guarantees from a Gaussian cold start. For total-variation error $\varepsilon$, the expected query counts are $O(κ^{1/2}d\,(d\logκ+\log\frac1\varepsilon))$ gradient queries for the bouncy particle sampler and $O(κd^{1/4}(d\logκ+\log\frac1\varepsilon))$ full-gradient equivalents for Zigzag, where $d$ coordinate-partial queries count as one equivalent.

math.NA↗
arXiv2023

Information geometric bound on general chemical reaction networks

We investigate the dynamics of chemical reaction networks (CRNs) with the goal of deriving an upper bound on their reaction rates. This task is challenging due to the nonlinear nature and discrete structure inherent in CRNs. To address this, we employ an information geometric approach, using the natural gradient, to develop a nonlinear system that yields an upper bound for CRN dynamics. We validate our approach through numerical simulations, demonstrating faster convergence in a specific class of CRNs. This class is characterized by the number of chemicals, the maximum value of stoichiometric coefficients of the chemical reactions, and the number of reactions. We also compare our method to a conventional approach, showing that the latter cannot provide an upper bound on reaction rates of CRNs. While our study focuses on CRNs, the ubiquity of hypergraphs in fields from natural sciences to engineering suggests that our method may find broader applications, including in information science.

physics.chem-ph↗
arXiv2026

Coherent information deletion: Bayes' theorem and generalized Bayesian unlearning

Bayes' theorem admits an information-processing interpretation due to Zellner (1988): under the Shannon-information criterion, the posterior is the unique rule that processes prior and data information without information loss. We revisit these ideas, but from the perspective of information deletion. Given a posterior based on a complete dataset, what distribution should replace it when a subset of the data is removed? We define information deletion using the same information conservation principle as Zellner (1988), and show that the optimalpost-deletion distribution is exactly the leave-data-out posterior. We then extend the framework beyond likelihood-based inference from Bayes to the generalized Bayesian updating of Bissiri et al. (2016) based on loss functions. We introduce a sequential coherence requirement for deletion, under which, removing two pieces of information jointly is equivalent to removing them successively. The resulting coherent deletion rule exactly recovers the generalized Bayesian posterior based only on the retained data. Restricting these optimization problems to variational families yields corresponding formulations of variational Bayesian and generalized Bayesian unlearning.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Minimax Lower Bound for Estimating Diffusion-based Local Intrinsic Dimension

While diffusion-based methods have recently emerged as effective tools for probing the intrinsic geometry of high-dimensional data, their statistical difficulty remains largely unexplored. We study estimation of the finite-scale population functional underlying FLIPD (Kamkari et al., 2024; arXiv:2406.03537), a diffusion-based local intrinsic dimension (LID) quantity defined through the logarithmic scale derivative of a Gaussian-smoothed density. Intuitively, Gaussian smoothing turns local dimension into a scale law: near a $d$-dimensional manifold, the kernel mass grows like $σ^d$, so differentiating with respect to the noise scale reveals the intrinsic exponent. Under a regular manifold model, we show uniformly over the model class that the finite-scale field differs from the manifold dimension $d$ by at most $O(σ^2)$. We then establish a minimax lower bound of order $(nσ^d)^{-1}$ for estimating this finite-scale field from $n$ observations, for $n^{-1/(2α+d)}\lesssimσ\leσ_0$. At the smallest scale covered by our lower-bound construction, the bound becomes the nonparametric rate $n^{-2α/(2α+d)}$.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Entropy-Generated Attention Beyond Softmax and Entmax: Kaniadakis and Reciprocal-Symmetric Abe Operators

We derive two attention operators from generalized statistical entropies. Kaniadakis entropy yields an exact full-support normalization whose weights and low-score sensitivities decay algebraically, rather than exponentially as in Softmax or by exact truncation as in entmax. Classical Abe entropy yields an implicit reciprocal-symmetric operator. With $q=e^ε$, the involution $q\leftrightarrow q^{-1}$ removes every odd correction about Softmax; we obtain the normalized second- and fourth-order terms, including the deformation of the normalization multiplier. These stationary laws follow from a Fisher-metric Lagrangian on the probability simplex, whose Shannon sector recovers scaled dot-product Softmax. We also give a tangent-gradient test for deciding whether changing the entropy changes the attention profile or only its scale. Rényi and two-parameter Sharma--Mittal entropies retain the Tsallis--entmax inverse-gradient shape, but their global moments make the effective temperature input dependent when the external temperature is fixed. Distinguishing profile-shape equivalence from fixed-parameter operator equivalence separates new normalization shapes from adaptive rescalings and organizes the operators by support, tail behavior, and realization complexity.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Sharp Restricted Isometry Thresholds for Global Minima of Rank-Restricted Matrix LASSO

We determine the sharp restricted isometry threshold for recovery at global minima of the rank-restricted matrix LASSO. For target rank $r_{\star}$, if the rank-$k$ RIP constant satisfies $δ<δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(k/r_{\star})$, where $δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(t)=t/(4-t)$ for $0<t<4/3$ and $δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(t)=\sqrt{(t-1)/t}$ for $t\ge4/3$, then every global minimizer has Frobenius error $\lesssim\sqrt{r_{\star}}λ$ for all $λ\gtrsim\|\mathcal{A}^{*}(ξ)\|_{\mathrm{op}}$ and at every search rank $r\ge r_{\star}$. The constants depend only on the RIP constant and $t=k/r_{\star}$, and in particular are independent of the search rank. When the rank restriction is inactive, the result specializes to the ordinary convex matrix LASSO. We also obtain the analogous results for sparsity-restricted vector LASSO. Conversely, we show that the threshold $δ<δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(k/r_{\star})$ cannot be improved, due to the existence of counterexamples whose global minimizers fail to recover the ground truth.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Deciding When to Decide: Testing Operational Suboptimality Under Distributional Shift

Deployed decisions are often optimized once and retained because updates impose operational, regulatory, or switching costs. As operating conditions change, when should such decisions be re-optimized? We study this question for stochastic optimization when the objective's functional form is known but the decision maker's trade-offs are encoded by an unknown preference parameter. Standard distribution-shift tests are poorly aligned with this goal: they can flag detectable yet decision-irrelevant changes without determining whether the incumbent decision has become materially suboptimal. We propose \texttt{RADAR} (Regret-based Assessment of Decision Adequacy and Risk), a decision-focused framework that uses inverse optimization to infer latent preferences and tests the deployed decision's optimality gap under the current distribution. By targeting regret, \texttt{RADAR} ignores decision-irrelevant shifts while detecting changes that warrant re-optimization. We develop two-sample and sequential changepoint procedures and establish asymptotic guarantees for Type-I error and power. Across synthetic optimization problems, a semi-synthetic capacity allocation task, and police-zone planning, \texttt{RADAR} more reliably distinguishes harmful from harmless shifts than decision-agnostic alternatives.

stat.ML↗