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642 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

A Sensor-Adaptive Incremental Learning Framework for Artifact Detection in Satellite Precipitation Data

Historically, retrieving rainfall data from satellite imagery has been the domain of space agencies. However, in recent years, the development of cheaper, more compact satellites (SmallSats) capable of detecting rainfall proxies has led to a significant increase in private-sector initiatives for satellite launch and surface precipitation products. This rapid growth has yet to be matched by data validation efforts. Consequently, the need for a robust tool to detect anomalies in near-real-time data before it is disseminated to the public has become critical. In this paper, we present the development of an anomaly-detection system to identify artifacts in global satellite-based rainfall products. The developed framework leverages pre-trained computer vision models and incorporates scarce human-labeled data to detect specific anomalies. Our proposed anomaly detection strategy is tested on data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS). Results demonstrate the efficacy of our approach at separating regular orbits from artifact-containing orbits for each satellite, with performance comparable to state-of-the-art in-place methods. Additionally, the framework offers explainability and the capacity for iterative refinement following false-positive or false-negative classifications.

physics.ao-ph

From crown candidates to neighborhood screening: integrating optical GeoAI and spatial modeling for urban-canopy assessment in Davis, California

Timely urban-canopy information is essential for linking remote sensing with heat, mobility, and neighborhood planning. We developed an optical GeoAI workflow for Davis, California, using 2022 National Agriculture Imagery Program imagery (0.6 m RGB+NIR). DeepForest generated crown candidates; an NDVI threshold, non-maximum suppression, and box-prompted Segment Anything Model (ViT-B) produced a crown-anchored canopy surface. Analyses used the 25.92 km2 Census TIGER municipal boundary and a 100 m grid. The workflow retained 11,741 candidate crowns and mapped 7.71 km2 of canopy (29.8% of the city). On the identical extent, pixel precision was 0.804, pixel recall was 0.873, and 97.4% of candidate centers agreed with the 2022 USDA/CAL FIRE LiDAR-assisted canopy product (IoU 0.719; Dice 0.837; area recovery 108.5%). Approximately 49% of candidates occurred within 15 m of a road. Canopy was inversely associated with Landsat land-surface temperature (Spearman rho = -0.477; partial rho = -0.551 controlling for built probability), and spatial-lag modeling confirmed clear neighborhood structure. Two transparent attention surfaces combined canopy need with thermal and contextual indicators. The framework provides a reproducible, updateable screening layer that complements structural canopy products and municipal inventories while retaining assumptions, data provenance, and spatial diagnostics for planning interpretation.

eess.IV

Large-scale spatial variable gene atlas for spatial transcriptomics

Spatial variable genes (SVGs) reveal critical information about tissue architecture, cellular interactions, and disease microenvironments. As spatial transcriptomics (ST) technologies proliferate, accurately identifying SVGs across diverse platforms, tissue types, and disease contexts has become both a major opportunity and a significant computational challenge. Here, we present a comprehensive benchmarking study of 20 state-of-the-art SVG detection methods using human slides from STimage-1K4M, a large-scale resource of ST data comprising 662 slides from more than 18 tissue types. We evaluate each method across a range of biologically and technically meaningful criteria, including recovery of pathologist-annotated domain-specific markers, cross-slide reproducibility, scalability to high-resolution data, and robustness to technical variation. Our results reveal marked differences in performance depending on tissue type, spatial resolution, and study design. Beyond benchmarking, we construct the first cross-tissue atlas of SVGs, enabling comparative analysis of spatial gene programs across cancer and normal tissues. We observe similarities between pairs of tissues that reflect developmental and functional relationships, such as high overlap between thymus and lymph node, and uncover spatial gene programs associated with metastasis, immune infiltration, and tissue-of-origin identity in cancer. Together, our work defines a framework for evaluating and interpreting spatial gene expression and establishes a reference resource for the ST community.

stat.AP

Beyond AHI: An Interpretable Causal-Discovery-Guided Framework for Sleep Recovery in Connected Health

Objective sleep assessment relies on polysomnography (PSG), yet clinical impact is often better reflected in patient-reported outcomes (PROs) such as sleepiness and fatigue. Existing summary indices, including the Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI), provide limited insight into the multidomain physiology underlying functional recovery. We propose an interpretable, causal-discovery-guided framework for deriving a hierarchical Sleep Recovery Score (SRS) from multimodal PSG. Using two large population cohorts (MESA: \(n=1{,}540\); MrOS: \(n=825\)), we apply directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning to identify candidate physiological drivers spanning respiratory burden, hypoxic burden, sleep fragmentation, sleep architecture, and autonomic regulation. Although derived from clinical PSG, these domains map naturally to sensing streams increasingly available in connected health technologies, including wearable ECG, oximetry, and sleep-stage estimation devices. To preserve mechanistic plausibility, we introduce a two-stage screening process that combines physiology-based constraints with constrained LLM-assisted auditing to identify and remove structural confounders and construct-overlapping variables. Across cohorts, these five domains emerge as recurrent physiological domains associated with recovery, and the resulting SRS shows up to \(3.4\times\) stronger alignment with perceived recovery than AHI. By linking multimodal sleep physiology to patient-centered outcomes through an interpretable, bias-aware, and domain-structured framework, this work provides a practical foundation for recovery modeling across both clinical sleep studies and emerging smart and connected health settings.

cs.LG

L2RDaS: Synthesizing 4D Radar Tensors for Model Generalization via Dataset Expansion

4-dimensional (4D) radar is increasingly adopted in autonomous driving for perception tasks, owing to its robustness under adverse weather conditions. To better utilize the spatial information inherent in 4D radar data, recent deep learning methods have transitioned from using sparse point cloud to 4D radar tensors. However, the scarcity of publicly available 4D radar tensor datasets limits model generalization across diverse driving scenarios. Previous methods addressed this by synthesizing radar data, but the outputs did not fully exploit the spatial information characteristic of 4D radar. To overcome these limitations, we propose LiDAR-to-4D radar data synthesis (L2RDaS), a framework that synthesizes spatially informative 4D radar tensors from LiDAR data available in existing autonomous driving datasets. L2RDaS integrates a modified U-Net architecture to effectively capture spatial information and an object information supplement (OBIS) module to enhance reflection fidelity. This framework enables the synthesis of radar tensors across diverse driving scenarios without additional sensor deployment or data collection. L2RDaS improves model generalization by expanding real datasets with synthetic radar tensors, achieving an average increase of 4.25\% in ${{AP}_{BEV}}$ and 2.87\% in ${{AP}_{3D}}$ across three detection models. Additionally, L2RDaS supports ground-truth augmentation (GT-Aug) by embedding annotated objects into LiDAR data and synthesizing them into radar tensors, resulting in further average increases of 3.75\% in ${{AP}_{BEV}}$ and 4.03\% in ${{AP}_{3D}}$. The implementation will be available at https://github.com/kaist-avelab/K-Radar.

cs.CV

Latency-Response Theory Model: Evaluating Large Language Models via Response Accuracy and Chain-of-Thought Length

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates valid evaluation methods to provide guidance for both downstream applications and actionable future improvements. The Item Response Theory (IRT) model with Computerized Adaptive Testing has recently emerged as a promising framework for evaluating LLMs via their response accuracy. Beyond simple response accuracy, LLMs' chain of thought (CoT) lengths serve as a vital indicator of their reasoning ability. To leverage the CoT length information to assist LLM evaluation, we propose the \textbf{La}tency-\textbf{R}esponse \textbf{T}heory (LaRT) model, which jointly models both the response accuracy and CoT length by introducing a key correlation parameter between the latent ability and the latent speed. We derive an efficient stochastic approximation Expectation-Maximization algorithm for parameter estimation. We establish rigorous identifiability results for the latent ability and latent speed parameters to ensure the statistical validity of their estimation. Through both theoretical asymptotic analyses and simulation studies, we demonstrate LaRT's advantages over IRT in terms of superior estimation accuracy and shorter confidence intervals for latent trait estimation. To evaluate LaRT in real data, we collect responses from diverse LLMs on popular benchmark datasets. We find that LaRT yields different LLM rankings than IRT and outperforms IRT across multiple key evaluation metrics including predictive power, item efficiency, ranking validity, and LLM evaluation efficiency. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Toby-X/Latency-Response-Theory-Model

stat.ME

Combating Organized Platform Abuse: Amplifying Weak Risk Signals with Structural Information

Large-scale online service platforms face severe challenges from organized platform abuse: multiple forms such as credit card fraud and promotion abuse continually emerge, characterized by large numbers of involved accounts, rapid outbreaks, and constantly shifting tactics. Existing mainstream approaches, whether heuristic rules limited in precision, supervised learning with insufficient generalization, or graph models that are engineering-heavy and dependent on seed users, have failed to address such threats effectively. This paper returns to first principles and, starting from the economic constraints of fraudulent behavior, proposes the Fraudster's Trilemma: organized attackers cannot simultaneously achieve scale, low cost, and dispersed cash-out. Building on this theory, we derive a robust structural invariant in organized fraud, namely centralized cash-out, and use a simple statistical method to turn low-precision individual weak signals into high-precision strong decisions. The method requires no labels, is nearly parameter-free, white-box interpretable, has linear complexity O(|E|), avoids cold-start issues, and its detection logic possesses the "open-hand" property: attackers cannot evade it even when fully informed. We validate the approach on two real fraud incidents in backtests. In the promotion abuse case, a single near-zero-cost weak signal (global Precision of only 16%) after structural amplification achieves Precision above 91% and Recall exceeding 99% (z=10.0); at a higher threshold (z=40.0), Precision reaches 93.7%. In the credit card fraud case, an infrastructure-layer weak signal (device spoofing) successfully detects payment-layer attacks without any business-logic linkage, revealing the framework's natural MO-agnostic property: it relies more on the structural invariant than on signal semantics.

cs.CR

Biases in Expected Goals Models Confound Finishing Ability

Expected Goals (xG) has emerged as a popular tool for evaluating finishing skill in soccer analytics. It involves comparing a player's cumulative xG with their actual goal output, where consistent overperformance indicates strong finishing ability. However, the assessment of finishing skill in soccer using xG remains contentious due to players' difficulty in consistently outperforming their cumulative xG. In this paper, we aim to address the limitations and nuances surrounding the evaluation of finishing skill using xG statistics. Specifically, we explore three hypotheses: (1) the deviation between actual and expected goals is an inadequate metric due to the high variance of shot outcomes and limited sample sizes, (2) the inclusion of all shots in cumulative xG calculation may be inappropriate, and (3) xG models contain biases arising from interdependencies in the data that affect skill measurement. We found that sustained overperformance of cumulative xG requires both high shot volumes and exceptional finishing, including all shot types can obscure the finishing ability of proficient strikers, and that there is a persistent bias that makes the actual and expected goals closer for excellent finishers than it really is. Overall, our analysis indicates that we need more nuanced quantitative approaches for investigating a player's finishing ability, which we achieved using a technique from AI fairness to learn an xG model that is calibrated for multiple subgroups of players. As a concrete use case, we show that (1) the standard biased xG model underestimates Messi's GAX by 17% and (2) Messi's GAX is 27% higher than the typical elite high-shot-volume attacker, indicating that Messi is even a more exceptional finisher than people commonly believed.

cs.LG

Machine Learning and ARIMA Model Averaging for Adaptive Public Health Forecasting: Comparative Evaluation and an Ontario COVID-19 Case Study

Public health forecasts must respond to abrupt changes in surveillance data without over-extrapolating noise, reporting artifacts, or temporary trends. We evaluated autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models using 190 weekly observations of publicly available Ontario COVID-19 case counts from January 2020 to October 2023. Rolling-origin time-series cross-validation preserved temporal order during model tuning and evaluation. Performance was assessed across three operating dimensions: responsiveness following selected turning points, forecast horizons of one to six weeks, and the amount of historical training data. We also developed Machine Learning and ARIMA Model Averaging (MLAMA), a non-negative performance-weighted ensemble with weights that vary by forecast horizon and responsiveness setting. Retrospective comparisons showed that ARIMA adapted rapidly after turning points but its normalized error increased at longer horizons. Random forest and XGBoost were less responsive initially but maintained more stable normalized error over longer horizons. For two-week forecasts at the end of the study period, training on the most recent data outperformed using longer historical periods, particularly for XGBoost. MLAMA achieved the lowest normalized mean absolute percentage error across most forecast horizons and ranked among the best-performing methods across responsiveness settings. These findings support selecting forecasting models according to operating conditions rather than relying on a single universally preferred approach. MLAMA provides a practical framework for combining complementary statistical and machine-learning forecasts. The accompanying Python package is currently maintained in a private repository while software validation and reproducibility testing are completed.

cs.LG

Modeling Information Blackouts in Missing Not-At-Random Time Series Data

Traffic forecasting systems rely on fixed sensor networks that frequently exhibit contiguous blackouts. Such outages are usually treated as ignorable missingness, although dropout can depend on unobserved traffic conditions. We study this possibility with an MNAR-aware latent state-space model that combines linear traffic dynamics with a Bernoulli missingness channel whose probability depends on the latent state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) followed by Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoothing, and parameters are learned by approximate EM. We evaluate Seattle using a leakage-free, month-balanced set of 300 unique all-horizon-aligned blackout windows. On this benchmark, MAR-LDS attains 4.264 mph pooled imputation RMSE and MNAR-LDS improves it to 4.177 (difference -0.086); the detector-cluster bootstrap 95% interval is [-0.182,-0.002]. A causal one-step predicted latent representation raises missingness ROC-AUC from 0.685 using observed-only features to 0.784. We further test whether this compact probabilistic model remains competitive with substantially larger neural time-series architectures under the identical masked-imputation protocol. MNAR-LDS ranks second in pooled RMSE and outperforms 8 of 9 evaluated neural architectures; it is within 1.22% of the best neural result, with no statistically resolved difference under detector-cluster bootstrap, while achieving lower P95 error, lower long-blackout RMSE, and orders of magnitude fewer stored scalar entries. MNAR roughly doubles end-to-end training time relative to MAR and increases EKF+RTS inference time by 41%, making the accuracy-complexity-cost tradeoff explicit. Controlled state-dependent blackouts further show larger gains when dropout is genuinely informative, including a 6.34% reduction in 30-minute forecast RMSE relative to MAR.

stat.ML

Reference-Distribution Dependence in LLM-Based Synthetic Persona Data: Diagnosis and Post Hoc Adjustment of Demographic Distributions

We diagnose how closely the demographic distributions in LLM-based synthetic persona data match external reference distributions. For the three variables examined, we show that most of the observed error is attributable to the choice of reference rather than to the generator. Using total variation distance (TVD), we compare the sex x age group x province joint distribution of 1,000,000 records from Nemotron-Personas-Korea (NPK) with Korean official statistics. Against resident-registration figures for April 2026, the time of use, the bias bound, defined as the largest possible difference in the share of any subgroup formed from the three variables, is 1.81 percentage points. This is comparable to the margin of error of a survey of roughly 2,900 respondents. This value is not a fixed property of the data. Matching the reference period and series to the generating reference identified here, the 2024 register-based census restricted to Korean nationals, lowers it to 0.56 percentage points. Over the 15 months between the best-matching month (January 2025) and the time of use, the resident-registration population structure itself moves more than twice the distance of NPK's minimum error. Raking and cell post-stratification, the two weighting schemes used in Korean survey practice, remove most of the reference-period dependence at a variance inflation of about 0.2% in both cases. After raking against the generating reference, the residual joint discrepancy lies at, and marginally above, the upper bound of what a perfect generator would produce when realizing 1,000,000 records (97.6th percentile of the Monte Carlo distribution). We recommend treating synthetic persona data as auxiliary material for small-scale survey design rather than as a substitute for survey data, and re-running both diagnosis and adjustment against official statistics current at the time of use.

cs.CY

Give it Space! Explicit Disentangling of Positional and Semantic Representations in Encoders

Positional encoding (PE) underpins how permutation-invariant Transformers represent sequence order, yet how positional information is processed and stored remains poorly understood. Modern PE methods such as RoPE still struggle on tasks such as long-context understanding or retrieval \cite{chen-etal-2025-hope}. Hence, a better understanding of the internal positional mechanism could help design better PE. Building on evidence that positional and semantic signals occupy nearly orthogonal subspaces in trained Transformers, we modify an encoder Transformer to process three explicitly disentangled streams: semantic, absolute positional (AP) and relative positional (RP), and confine the masked-language-modeling (MLM) objective to the semantic stream. This decoupling enables a clean mechanistic study and yields three take-aways. (1) The isolated AP subspace spontaneously collapses into a low-frequency two-dimensional manifold that captures the structure of the document; (2) Attention heads specialize into structure and semantic-oriented groups, with RP exclusively supporting the latter; (3) Standard positional encodings do not robustly retain macroscopic structure: RoPE and RP only weakly encode it, and entangled AP loses it in the final layers under MLM pressure. The disentangled approach preserves positional encoding, which improves linguistic representation on 49 of the 65 linguistic phenomena of the Flash-Holmes probing benchmark.

cs.CL

Content Exploration Beyond the Feed: Creator Supply and the Shared Corpus

Industrial recommenders give new content initial views through budgeted exploration, then use early performance to decide further delivery. On many short-video platforms, exploration is the primary way new videos reach viewers. Viewer-side tests measure consumption; the published budget objectives we review omit creator response. We analyze four experiments on a major short-video platform. An eight-month creator ablation finds production exploration raises videos posted per creator by 8.55% and creators posting at least once by 7.10% relative to a minimal floor. A budget-matched reallocation raises creator participation with no detectable short-run viewer-side change. A year-long viewer ablation finds 1.74% more video views but 2.13% less view time. A delivered view creates immediate feed value, can trigger organic take-up, and can induce creator supply. Take-up and supply replenish a shared corpus, creating two measurement limits. Viewer-side A/B tests cancel the corpus effect when both arms consume the same corpus. Giving each arm its own corpus avoids cancellation, but turnover still controls the horizon. If the corpus turns over at rate w per posting cycle, a t-cycle experiment expresses at most wt of the eventual corpus effect. More users reduce noise but do not speed turnover. Before the corpus path visibly bends, data cannot distinguish a modest fast effect from an arbitrarily large slow one, so a valid confidence interval may lack a finite upper endpoint. As predicted, the three-week co-diverted experiment cannot determine the sign of the eventual corpus effect. Within the window, it identifies the direct feed effect, and an exploratory cohort analysis detects organic lift after exploration ends. The experiments establish a positive creator response, measure the gross corpus flow visible within three weeks, and show the design and duration needed to identify total value.

cs.IR

Fleets Need a Context Plane: Rethinking Cooperative Perception for Autonomous Drones

Cooperative perception allows a drone fleet to combine observations from multiple viewpoints. However, existing systems typically fix their feature-sharing policies at design time or adapt to only one context signal. This is a poor fit for aerial fleets, whose missions, bandwidth, formation geometry, and scene coverage can change during flight. We quantify the cost of context-blind sharing on UAV3D by controlling feature exchange at evaluation time using a released DiscoNet checkpoint, without retraining. Mission-aware sharing matches full-sharing accuracy while using only 5-10% of the bytes. The best tested peer selection policy changes with the byte budget, and choosing the wrong policy loses up to 7.7 AP. Moreover, under a constrained budget, two policies with the same full-scene accuracy differ by 5.9 AP within the mission region, showing that multiple context axes must be considered jointly. We therefore propose the context plane, a bounded, structured interface for runtime context. Each drone publishes a descriptor of at most 1 KB at 10 Hz, and lightweight, replaceable policies use the fleet context to decide what each drone computes, shares, and fuses. Existing sharing schemes become fixed policies within this interface. In our ROS 2 prototype on a Jetson AGX Orin, the context plane uses approximately 0.01% of the data-plane bandwidth, and each policy decision takes 0.10 ms. These results show that an explicit context interface can support low-overhead runtime adaptation without modifying or retraining the perception model.

cs.RO

WALDO: One-Shot Exemplar-Conditioned Object Detection in Cluttered Scenes

Locating a specific object instance in a cluttered scene using a single reference image and a short description, and reporting when that instance is absent, large vision-language models usually address this task. We ask whether the same capability is available far more cheaply, from representations already learned by a world-model pretraining objective. We present WALDO, a one-shot exemplar- and language-conditioned detection head with 3.4M trainable parameters that reads frozen V-JEPA 2.1 features to jointly predict object localization and target presence, with no gradient on the backbone. Because exemplar-conditioned supervision is scarce, we synthesize training episodes from instance annotations, mining exemplars from ground-truth boxes and constructing absence cases that exclude the referenced instance while leaving same-category distractors in view. This is easy to get wrong: in the obvious implementation, crop size alone predicts the label, and a head trained on it reaches 0.9998 absence AUROC without ever consulting the exemplar, and we report the negative controls that close the shortcut. On 35 held-out cluttered scenes, WALDO achieves a 0.461 catalogue AP@50, compared to 0.306 for a prompted Grounding DINO baseline under an identical scorer. Substituting DINOv3 for V-JEPA under a matched 576-token grid drops within-category absence AUROC from 0.880 to 0.726 and instance AP@50 from 0.201 to 0.141, isolating the pretraining objective rather than input resolution as the source of the gain. Instance-level Success@1, however, reaches only 0.190 against a 0.190 category-chance floor: world-model features transfer to localization precision and absence detection but not to instance identity.

cs.CV

QCell: Recombining and Aligning Cell Queries for Overlapping Instance Segmentation

Instance segmentation of overlapping cells in microscopy remains challenging due to semi-transparent structures that produce weak boundaries and mixed visual evidence in overlap regions. Existing methods address this through local regions of interest or shape priors but lack global reasoning across overlapping objects. We present QCell, a novel query-based model that de-overlaps cell instances in microscopy scenes. Our approach combines (i) an instance recombination module that decomposes and recombines query representations in latent space, enabling the model to reason about complete object structure under overlap, and (ii) a contrastive query alignment objective that combines distinctive instance feature learning and separation of overlapping cell queries. We additionally introduce a new Organoid dataset benchmark for overlapping cell segmentation. We show that QCell outperforms state-of-the-art methods across multiple benchmarks, achieving +2.2 AP and +2.7 AJI on ISBI2014. Code is available at https://github.com/SlavkoPrytula/QCell

cs.CV

BOLT: Online Lightweight Adaptation for Preparation-Free Heterogeneous Cooperative Perception

Most existing heterogeneous cooperative perception methods depend on prior preparation like offline joint training or tailored collaborator-model adaptation. Such preprocessing is, however, generally impractical in real scenarios, as agents are usually independently trained by different developers and meet occasionally online. This work investigates \emph{preparation-free heterogeneous cooperative perception}, where agents use independently trained single-agent detectors without any pre-deployment coordination. We find direct cross-agent fusion under this setting greatly underperforms ego-only perception. We present BOLT, a lightweight plug-and-play module that adapts neighboring features online via ego-as-teacher distillation, requiring only ego predictions without ground-truth labels. BOLT leverages high-confidence ego perception features to guide cross-agent feature-domain alignment, while enabling neighbors to contribute features in the ego's low-confidence regions. With only 0.9M trainable parameters, BOLT improves AP@50 by up to 32.3 points over vanilla unadapted fusion in the preparation-free setting. It consistently outperforms ego-only results on DAIR-V2X and OPV2V, across different encoder pairs and fusion strategies. Code: https://github.com/sidiangongyuan/BOLT.

cs.CV

Multi-View Reflective Surface Inspection via Semantic-Saliency Cross-Verification

Reflective smartphone cover glass is challenging to inspect from a single fixed viewpoint because defect visibility varies with viewing geometry and specular reflections. This gives rise to two practical challenges: defects may be weakly observable from certain viewpoints, while the available visual evidence may remain spatially ambiguous. To address these issues, we propose a multi-view inspection framework in which each RGB observation is processed by a shared per-view expert. A vision-language model (VLM) produces class-aware semantic boxes, while a normal-reference reconstruction branch provides class-agnostic saliency. Their spatial agreement is used as supporting evidence to rank semantic proposals without modifying their coordinates or treating saliency as ground truth. The resulting evidence records are combined at product level without cross-view registration. On 282 production-line images, semantic-saliency association improves $AP_{50}$ from 52.6% to 62.6% by re-ranking fixed semantic proposals. Across 94 products, cross-view evidence recall $R_{\rm prod}@0.5$ increases from 75.5% for the best single view to 88.3% using all three views. These results support the complementary roles of semantic-saliency cross-verification and additional optical observations in reflective-surface inspection.

cs.CV