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arXiv2013

Option pricing, Bayes risks and Applications

A statistical decision problem is hidden in the core of option pricing. A simple form for the price C of a European call option is obtained via the minimum Bayes risk, R_B, of a 2-parameter estimation problem, thus justifying calling C Bayes (B-)price. The result provides new insight in option pricing, among others obtaining C for some stock-price models using the underlying probability instead of the risk neutral probability and giving R_B an economic interpretation. When logarithmic stock prices follow Brownian motion, discrete normal mixture and hyperbolic Levy motion the obtained B-prices are "fair" prices. A new expression for the price of American call option is also obtained and statistical modeling of R_B can be used when pricing European and American call options.

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arXiv2014

The pricing formula for cancellable European options

This paper examines the value of a cancellable European option in a finite time horizon setting. The specifications of this generalized European option allow the seller to cancel the option at any point in time for a fixed penalty paid directly to the holder. Here, we provide an explicit valuation formula for the European game call where the early cancellation time is obtained iteratively.

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arXiv2013

Hedging in bond markets by the Clark-Ocone formula

Hedging strategies in bond markets are computed by martingale representation and the Clark-Ocone formula under the choice of a suitable of numeraire, in a model driven by the dynamics of bond prices. Applications are given to the hedging of swaptions and other interest rate derivatives, and our approach is compared to delta hedging when the underlying swap rate is modeled by a diffusion process.

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arXiv2013

Time-independent pricing of options in range bound markets

Assuming that price of the underlying stock is moving in range bound, the Black-Scholes formula for options pricing supports a separation of variables. The resulting time-independent equation is solved employing different behavior of the option price function and three significant results are deduced. The first is the probability of stock price penetration through support or resistance level, called transmission coefficient. The second is the distance that price will go through once stock price penetrates out of the range bound. The last one is a predicted short time dramatic fall in the stock volatility right ahead of price tunneling. All three results are useful tools that give market practitioners valuable insights in choosing the right time to get involved in an option contract, about how far the price will go in case of a breakout, and how to correctly interpret volatility downfalls.

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arXiv2013

A note on replicating a CDS through a repo and an asset swap

In this note we show how to replicate a stylized CDS with a repurchase agreement and an asset swap. The latter must be designed in such a way that, on default of the issuer, it is terminated with a zero close-out amount. This break clause can be priced using the well known unilateral credit/debit valuation adjustment formulas.

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arXiv2014

Optimal dividend problem for a generalized compound Poisson risk model

In this note we study the optimal dividend problem for a company whose surplus process, in the absence of dividend payments, evolves as a generalized compound Poisson model in which the counting process is a generalized Poisson process. This model including the classical risk model and the Polya-Aeppli risk model as special cases. The objective is to find a dividend policy so as to maximize the expected discounted value of dividends which are paid to the shareholders until the company is ruined. We show that under some conditions the optimal dividend strategy is formed by a barrier strategy.

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arXiv2013

A Galerkin approximation scheme for the mean correction in a mean-reversion stochastic differential equation

This paper is concerned with the following Markovian stochastic differential equation of mean-reversion type \[ dR_t= (θ+σα(R_t, t))R_t dt +σR_t dB_t \] with an initial value $R_0=r_0\in\mathbb{R}$, where $θ\in\mathbb{R}$ and $σ>0$ are constants, and the mean correction function $α:\mathbb{R}\times[0,\infty)\to α(x,t)\in\mathbb{R}$ is twice continuously differentiable in $x$ and continuously differentiable in $t$. We first derive that under the assumption of path independence of the density process of Girsanov transformation for the above stochastic differential equation, the mean correction function $α$ satisfies a non-linear partial differential equation which is known as the viscous Burgers equation. We then develop a Galerkin type approximation scheme for the function $α$ by utilizing truncation of discretised Fourier transformation to the viscous Burgers equation.

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arXiv2013

Markov switching quadratic term structure models

In this paper, we consider a discrete time economy where we assume that the short term interest rate follows a quadratic term structure of a regime switching asset process. The possible non-linear structure and the fact that the interest rate can have different economic or financial trends justify the interest of Regime Switching Quadratic Term Structure Model (RS-QTSM). Indeed, this regime switching process depends on the values of a Markov chain with a time dependent transition probability matrix which can well captures the different states (regimes) of the economy. We prove that under this modelling that the conditional zero coupon bond price admits also a quadratic term structure. Moreover, the stochastic coefficients which appear in this decomposition satisfy an explicit system of coupled stochastic backward recursions.

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arXiv2013

Risk-minimization and hedging claims on a jump-diffusion market model, Feynman-Kac Theorem and PIDE

At first, we solve a problem of finding a risk-minimizing hedging strategy on a general market with ratings. Next, we find a solution to this problem on Markovian market with ratings on which prices are influenced by additional factors and rating, and behavior of this system is described by SDE driven by Wiener process and compensated Poisson random measure and claims depend on rating. To find a tool to calculate hedging strategy we prove a Feynman-Kac type theorem. This result is of independent interest and has many applications, since it enables to calculate some conditional expectations using related PIDE's. We illustrate our theory on two examples of market. The first is a general exponential Lévy model with stochastic volatility, and the second is a generalization of exponential Lévy model with regime-switching.

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arXiv2017

Third-Order Short-Time Expansions for Close-to-the-Money Option Prices under the CGMY Model

A third-order approximation for close-to-the-money European option prices under an infinite-variation CGMY Lévy model is derived, and is then extended to a model with an additional independent Brownian component. The asymptotic regime considered, in which the strike is made to converge to the spot stock price as the maturity approaches zero, is relevant in applications since the most liquid options have strikes that are close to the spot price. Our results shed new light on the connection between both the volatility of the continuous component and the jump parameters and the behavior of option prices near expiration when the strike is close to the spot price. In particular, a new type of transition phenomenon is uncovered in which the third order term exhibits two distinct asymptotic regimes depending on whether $Y\in(1,3/2)$ or $Y\in(3/2,2)$. Unlike second order approximations, the expansions herein are shown to be remarkably accurate so that they can actually be used for calibrating some model parameters. For illustration, we calibrate the volatility $σ$ of the Brownian component and the jump intensity $C$ of the CGMY model to actual option prices.

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arXiv2013

Pricing bonds with optional sinking feature using Markov Decision Processes

An efficient method to price bonds with optional sinking feature is presented. Such instruments equip their issuer with the option (but not the obligation) to redeem parts of the notional prior to maturity, therefore the future cash flows are random. In a one-factor model for the issuer's default intensity we show that the pricing algorithm can be formulated as a Markov Decision Process, which is both accurate and quick. The method is demonstrated using a 1.5-factor credit-equity model which defines the default intensity in a reciprocal relationship to the issuer's stock price process, termed jump-to-default extended model with constant elasticity of variance (JDCEV).

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arXiv2013

Bilateral Credit Valuation Adjustment for Large Credit Derivatives Portfolios

We obtain an explicit formula for the bilateral counterparty valuation adjustment of a credit default swaps portfolio referencing an asymptotically large number of entities. We perform the analysis under a doubly stochastic intensity framework, allowing for default correlation through a common jump process. The key insight behind our approach is an explicit characterization of the portfolio exposure as the weak limit of measure-valued processes associated to survival indicators of portfolio names. We validate our theoretical predictions by means of a numerical analysis, showing that counterparty adjustments are highly sensitive to portfolio credit risk volatility as well as to default correlation.

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arXiv2013

On a Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach for stock options

This paper aims at transferring the philosophy behind Heath-Jarrow-Morton to the modelling of call options with all strikes and maturities. Contrary to the approach by Carmona and Nadtochiy (2009) and related to the recent contribution Carmona and Nadtochiy (2012) by the same authors, the key parametrisation of our approach involves time-inhomogeneous Lévy processes instead of local volatility models. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for absence of arbitrage. Moreover we discuss the construction of arbitrage-free models. Specifically, we prove their existence and uniqueness given basic building blocks.

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arXiv2014

Note on multidimensional Breeden-Litzenberger representation for state price densities

In this note, we consider European options of type $h(X^1_T, X^2_T,\ldots, X^n_T)$ depending on several underlying assets. We give a multidimensional version of the result of Breeden and Litzenberger \cite{Breeden} on the relation between derivatives of the call price and the risk-neutral density of the underlying asset. The pricing measure is assumed to be absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure on the state space.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

Hedging without sweat: a genetic programming approach

Hedging in the presence of transaction costs leads to complex optimization problems. These problems typically lack closed-form solutions, and their implementation relies on numerical methods that provide hedging strategies for specific parameter values. In this paper we use a genetic programming algorithm to derive explicit formulas for near-optimal hedging strategies under nonlinear transaction costs. The strategies are valid over a large range of parameter values and require no information about the structure of the optimal hedging strategy.

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arXiv2013

Marginal density expansions for diffusions and stochastic volatility, part II: Applications [to the Stein--Stein model]

In the compagnion paper [Marginal density expansions for diffusions and stochastic volatility, part I] we discussed density expansions for multidimensional diffusions $(X^1,...,X^d)$, at fixed time $T$ and projected to their first $l$ coordinates, in the small noise regime. Global conditions were found which replace the well-known "not-in-cutlocus" condition known from heat-kernel asymptotics. In the present paper we discuss financial applications; these include tail and implied volatility asymptotics in some correlated stochastic volatility models. In particular, we solve a problem left open by A. Gulisashvili and E.M. Stein (2009).

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

American option of stochastic volatility model with negative Fichera function on degenerate boundary

In this paper we study a general framework of American put option with stochastic volatility whose value function is associated with a 2-dimensional parabolic variational inequality with degenerate boundaries. We apply PDE methods to analyze the existences of the strong solution and the properties of the 2-dimensional manifold for the free boundary. Thanks to the regularity result on the solution of the underlying PDE, we can also provide the uniqueness of the solution by the argument of the verification theorem together with the generalized Ito's formula even though the solution may not be second order differentiable in the space variable across the free boundary.

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arXiv2013

Volatility in options formulae for general stochastic dynamics

It is well-known that the Black-Scholes formula has been derived under the assumption of constant volatility in stocks. In spite of evidence that this parameter is not constant, this formula is widely used by financial markets. This paper addresses the question of whether an alternative model for stock price exists for which the Black-Scholes or similar formulae hold. The results obtained in this paper are very general as no assumptions are made on the dynamics of the model, whether it be the underlying price process, the volatility process or how they relate to each other. We show that if the formula holds for a continuum of strikes and three terminal times, then the volatility must be constant. However, when it only holds for finitely many strikes, and three or more maturity times, we obtain a universal bound on the variation of the volatility. This bound yields that the implied volatility is constant when the sequence of strikes increases to cover the entire half-line. This recovers the result for a continuum of strikes by a different approach.

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