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At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources

Recovering from Derivatives Funding: A consistent approach to DVA, FVA and Hedging

The inclusion of DVA in the fair-value of derivative transactions has now become standard accounting practice in most parts of the world. Furthermore, some sophisticated banks are including an FVA (Funding Valuation Adjustment), but since DVA can be interpreted as a funding benefit the oft-debated issue regarding a possible double-counting of funding benefits arises, with little consensus as to its resolution. One possibility is to price the derivative by replication, guaranteeing a consistent inclusion of costs and benefits. However, as has recently been noted, DVA is (at least partially) unhedgeable, having no exact market hedge. Furthermore, current frameworks shed little light on the controversial question, raised by Hull (2012), of whether the effect a derivative has on the riskiness of an institution's debt should be taken into account when calculating FVA. In this paper we propose a solution to these two problems by identifying an instrument, a fictitious CDS written on the hedging counterparty which is implicitly contained in any given derivatives transaction. This allows us to show that the hedger's unhedged jump-to-default risk has, despite not being actively managed, a well defined value associated to a funding benefit. Carrying out the replication including such a CDS, we obtain a price for the derivative consisting of its collateralized equivalent, a contingent CVA, a contingent DVA, and an FVA, coupled to the price via the hedger's short-term bond-CDS basis. The resulting funding cost is non-zero, but substantially smaller than what is obtained in alternative approaches due to the effect the derivative has on the recovery of the hedger's liabilities. Also, price agreement is possible for two sophisticated counterparties entering a deal if their bond-CDS bases obey a certain relationship, similar to what was first obtained by Morini and Prampolini (2010).

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Modelling the Bid and Ask Prices of Illiquid CDSs

CDS (credit default swap) contracts that were initiated some time ago frequently have spreads and/or maturities that are not available on the current market of CDSs, and are thus illiquid. This article introduces an incomplete-market approach to valuing illiquid CDSs that, in contrast to the risk-neutral approach of current market practice, allows a dealer who buys an illiquid CDS from an investor to determine ask and bid prices (which differ) in such a way as to guarantee a minimum positive expected rate of return on the deal. An alternative procedure, which replaces the expected rate of return by an analogue of the Sharpe ratio, is also discussed. The approach to pricing just described belongs to the good-deal category of approaches, since the dealer decides what it would take to make an appropriate expected rate of return, and sets the bid and ask prices accordingly. A number of different hedges are discussed and compared within the general framework developed in the article. The approach is implemented numerically, and example plots of important quantities are given. The paper also develops a useful result in linear programming theory in the case that the cost vector is random.

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Modelling Credit Default Swaps: Market-Standard Vs Incomplete-Market Models

Recently, incomplete-market techniques have been used to develop a model applicable to credit default swaps (CDSs) with results obtained that are quite different from those obtained using the market-standard model. This article makes use of the new incomplete-market model to further study CDS hedging and extends the model so that it is capable treating single-name CDS portfolios. Also, a hedge called the vanilla hedge is described, and with it, analytic results are obtained explaining the striking features of the plot of no-arbitrage bounds versus CDS maturity for illiquid CDSs. The valuation process that follows from the incomplete-market model is an integrated modelling and risk management procedure, that first uses the model to find the arbitrage-free range of fair prices, and then requires risk management professionals for both the buyer and the seller to find, as a basis for negotiation, prices that both respect the range of fair prices determined by the model, and also benefit their firms. Finally, in a section on numerical results, the striking behavior of the no-arbitrage bounds as a function of CDS maturity is illustrated, and several examples describe the reduction in risk by the hedging of single-name CDS portfolios.

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A fast Fourier transform method for Mellin-type option pricing

Analytical pricing formulas and Greeks are obtained for European and American basket put options using Mellin transforms. We assume assets are driven by geometric Brownian motion which exhibit correlation and pay a continuous dividend rate. A novel approach to numerical Mellin inversion is achieved via the fast Fourier transform, enabling the computation of option values at equidistant log asset prices. Numerical accuracy is verified among existing methods for American call options.

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Representation of infinite dimensional forward price models in commodity markets

We study the forward price dynamics in commodity markets realized as a process with values in a Hilbert space of absolutely continuous functions defined by Filipović. The forward dynamics are defined as the mild solution of a certain stochastic partial differential equation driven by an infinite dimensional Lévy process. It is shown that the associated spot price dynamics can be expressed as a sum of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, or more generally, as a sum of certain stationary processes. These results link the possibly infinite dimensional forward dynamics to classical commodity spot models. We continue with a detailed analysis of multiplication and integral operators on the Hilbert spaces and show that Hilbert-Schmidt operators are essentially integral operators. The covariance operator of the Lévy process driving the forward dynamics and the diffusion term can both be specified in terms of such operators, and we analyse in several examples the consequences on model dynamics and their probabilistic properties. Also, we represent the forward price for contracts delivering over a period in terms of an integral operator, a case being relevant for power and gas markets. In several examples we reduce our general model to existing commodity spot and forward dynamics.

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A change of measure preserving the affine structure in the BNS model for commodity markets

For a commodity spot price dynamics given by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility, we price forwards using a class of pricing measures that simultaneously allow for change of level and speed in the mean reversion of both the price and the volatility. The risk premium is derived in the case of arithmetic and geometric spot price processes, and it is demonstrated that we can provide flexible shapes that is typically observed in energy markets. In particular, our pricing measure preserves the affine model structure and decomposes into a price and volatility risk premium, and in the geometric spot price model we need to resort to a detailed analysis of a system of Riccati equations, for which we show existence and uniqueness of solution and asymptotic properties that explains the possible risk premium profiles. Among the typical shapes, the risk premium allows for a stochastic change of sign, and can attain positive values in the short end of the forward market and negative in the long end.

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Asymptotic analysis of stock price densities and implied volatilities in mixed stochastic models

In this paper, we obtain sharp asymptotic formulas with error estimates for the Mellin convolution of functions, and use these formulas to characterize the asymptotic behavior of marginal distribution densities of stock price processes in mixed stochastic models. Special examples of mixed models are jump-diffusion models and stochastic volatility models with jumps. We apply our general results to the Heston model with double exponential jumps, and make a detailed analysis of the asymptotic behavior of the stock price density, the call option pricing function, and the implied volatility in this model. We also obtain similar results for the Heston model with jumps distributed according to the NIG law.

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Inflation securities valuation with macroeconomic-based no-arbitrage dynamics

We develop a model to price inflation and interest rates derivatives using continuous-time dynamics that have some links with macroeconomic monetary DSGE models equipped with a Taylor rule: in particular, the reaction function of the central bank, the bond market liquidity, inflation and growth expectations play an important role. The model can explain the effects of non-standard monetary policies (like quantitative easing or its tapering) and shed light on how central bank policy can affect the value of inflation and interest rates derivatives. The model is built under standard no-arbitrage assumptions. Interestingly, the model yields short rate dynamics that are consistent with a time-varying Hull-White model, therefore making the calibration to the nominal interest curve and options straightforward. Further, we obtain closed forms for both zero-coupon and year-on-year inflation swap and options. The calibration strategy we propose is fully separable, which means that the calibration can be carried out in subsequent simple steps that do not require heavy computation. A market calibration example is provided. The advantages of such structural inflation modelling become apparent when one starts doing risk analysis on an inflation derivatives book: because the model explicitly takes into account economic variables, a trader can easily assess the impact of a change in central bank policy on a complex book of fixed income instruments, which is normally not straightforward if one is using standard inflation pricing models.

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Non-Arbitrage under a Class of Honest Times

This paper quantifies the interplay between the non-arbitrage notion of No-Unbounded-Profit-with-Bounded-Risk (NUPBR hereafter) and additional information generated by a random time. This study complements the one of Aksamit/Choulli/Deng/Jeanblanc [1] in which the authors studied similar topics for the case of stopping at the random time instead, while herein we are concerned with the part after the occurrence of the random time. Given that all the literature -up to our knowledge- proves that the NUPBR notion is always violated after honest times that avoid stopping times in a continuous filtration, herein we propose a new class of honest times for which the NUPBR notion can be preserved for some models. For this family of honest times, we elaborate two principal results. The first main result characterizes the pairs of initial market and honest time for which the resulting model preserves the NUPBR property, while the second main result characterizes the honest times that preserve the NUPBR property for any quasi-left continuous model. Furthermore, we construct explicitly "the-after-tau" local martingale deflators for a large class of initial models (i.e. models in the small filtration) that are already risk-neutralized.

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Short-time expansions for close-to-the-money options under a Lévy jump model with stochastic volatility

In Figueroa-López et al. (2013), a second order approximation for at-the-money (ATM) option prices is derived for a large class of exponential Lévy models, with or without a Brownian component. The purpose of this article is twofold. First, we relax the regularity conditions imposed in Figueroa-López et al. (2013) on the Lévy density to the weakest possible conditions for such an expansion to be well defined. Second, we show that the formulas extend both to the case of "close-to-the-money" strikes and to the case where the continuous Brownian component is replaced by an independent stochastic volatility process with leverage.

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Utility indifference pricing of derivatives written on industrial loss indexes

We consider the problem of pricing derivatives written on some industrial loss index via utility indifference pricing. The industrial loss index is modelled by a compound Poisson process and the insurer can adjust her portfolio by choosing the risk loading, which in turn determines the demand. We compute the price of a CAT(spread) option written on that index using utility indifference pricing.

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Parallel American Monte Carlo

In this paper we introduce a new algorithm for American Monte Carlo that can be used either for American-style options, callable structured products or for computing counterparty credit risk (e.g. CVA or PFE computation). Leveraging least squares regressions, the main novel feature of our algorithm is that it can be fully parallelized. Moreover, there is no need to store the paths and the payoff computation can be done forwards: this allows to price structured products with complex path and exercise dependencies. The key idea of our algorithm is to split the set of paths in several subsets which are used iteratively. We give the convergence rate of the algorithm. We illustrate our method on an American put option and compare the results with the Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm.

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Martingale optimal transport in the Skorokhod space

The dual representation of the martingale optimal transport problem in the Skorokhod space of multi dimensional cadlag processes is proved. The dual is a minimization problem with constraints involving stochastic integrals and is similar to the Kantorovich dual of the standard optimal transport problem. The constraints are required to hold for very path in the Skorokhod space. This problem has the financial interpretation as the robust hedging of path dependent European options. In this second version, we included the multi-marginal case.

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Derivative pricing under the possibility of long memory in the supOU stochastic volatility model

We consider the supOU stochastic volatility model which is able to exhibit long-range dependence. For this model we give conditions for the discounted stock price to be a martingale, calculate the characteristic function, give a strip where it is analytic and discuss the use of Fourier pricing techniques. Finally, we present a concrete specification with polynomially decaying autocorrelations and calibrate it to observed market prices of plain vanilla options.

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Ramsey Rule with Progressive Utility in Long Term Yield Curves Modeling

The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term yield curves modeling. Inspired by the economic litterature, it provides a financial interpretation of the Ramsey rule that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such a long maturity modelization, the possibility of adjusting preferences to new economic information is crucial. Thus, after recalling some important properties on progressive utility, this paper first provides an extension of the notion of a consistent progressive utility to a consistent pair of progressive utilities of investment and consumption. An optimality condition is that the utility from the wealth satisfies a second order SPDE of HJB type involving the Fenchel-Legendre transform of the utility from consumption. This SPDE is solved in order to give a full characterization of this class of consistent progressive pair of utilities. An application of this results is to revisit the classical backward optimization problem in the light of progressive utility theory, emphasizing intertemporal-consistency issue. Then we study the dynamics of the marginal utility yield curve, and give example with backward and progressive power utilities.

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Ramsey Rule with Progressive utility and Long Term Affine Yields Curves

The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term affine yield curves modeling. It is inspired by the Ramsey rule of the economic literature, that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such a long maturity modelization, the possibility of adjusting preferences to new economic information is crucial, justifying the use of progressive utility. This paper studies, in a framework with affine factors, the yield curve given from the Ramsey rule. It first characterizes consistent progressive utility of investment and consumption, given the optimal wealth and consumption processes. A special attention is paid to utilities associated with linear optimal processes with respect to their initial conditions, which is for example the case of power progressive utilities. Those utilities are the basis point to construct other progressive utilities generating non linear optimal processes but leading yet to still tractable computations. This is of particular interest to study the impact of initial wealth on yield curves.

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Pricing of Basket Options Using Polynomial Approximations

In this paper we use Bernstein and Chebyshev polynomials to approximate the price of some basket options under a bivariate Black-Scholes model. The method consists in expanding the price of a univariate related contract after conditioning on the remaining underlying assets and calculating the mixed exponential-power moments of a Gaussian distribution that arise as a consequence of such approximation. Our numerical implementation on spread contracts shows the method is as accurate as a standard Monte Carlo approach at considerable lesser computational effort.

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A Note on the Pricing of Basket Options Using Taylor Approximations

In this paper we propose a closed-form approximation for the price of basket options under a multivariate Black-Scholes model, based on Taylor expansions and the calculation of mixed exponential-power moments of a Gaussian distribution. Our numerical results show that a second order expansion provides accurate prices of spread options with low computational costs, even for out-of-the-money contracts.

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